Grady Sizemore and Curtis Granderson are inextricably linked. Both reside in the American League Central, patrolling center field with aplomb while displaying the most diverse set of tools this side of Home Depot. While Sizemore deservedly sits near the top of any draft list that you’ll find, Granderson just does not seem to receive a proper level of admiration. Take this ESPN projection list, for instance. Grady garners first-place honors among center fielders, but Granderson ranks only ninth. While I’m not here to dissuade you from taking Sizemore first, I think it’s worth pointing out that Curtis comes equipped with many of the same virtues, and potentially at a bargain price. Let’s compare our two gifted fly-catchers.

On-Base Ability

Sizemore has posted OBP’s of .375, .390 and .374 over the past three seasons. A highly disciplined hitter (his career Outside-Swing% is 18.8%, compared to a league Avg. near 25%), Sizemore has drawn a free pass between 13-14% over the past two seasons.

Granderson is not quite as patient, but he still gets his fair share of base on balls. Granderson’s OBP’s from 2006-2008 are .335, .361 and .365. He worked a walk 11.4% of the time in 2008 (7.8% in ’07) while improving his O-Swing% from 23.4% in 2007 to 19.8% this past season.

Advantage: Sizemore

Power

Sizemore and Granderson have posted near identical Isolated Power figures during their respective big league careers, with Granderson (.214) ahead of Sizemore (.212) by the slightest of margins. Granderson held a big advantage in 2007, with a .250 ISO compared to Grady’s .185. However, Granderson’s number was due in part to an absolutely ridiculous twenty-three triples. With a more reasonable but still lofty 13 three-baggers in 2008, Curtis saw his ISO settle in at .213, while Grady smacked 33 bombs with a .233 ISO.

Advantage: Push

Base Stealing

When I think of base stealing, I tend to think of doctors. Specifically, the Hippocratic Oath. Some wild, unrestrained runners would serve their teams well by swearing to “above all, do no harm.” A properly leveraged SB can be a very smart play, but the relative value of a stolen base isn’t quite what it’s cracked up to be: according to numbers guru Tom Tango, a SB is worth approximately +.19 runs while a CS chops off a pernicious -.46 runs.

The break-even rate on a SB (that is, the point at which a player is no longer doing harm to his team) is about 67 percent, according to The Book. This might sound abstract, but it has fantasy baseball applications as well: a guy who racks up the SB’s might help you in one category, but if he’s stealing with the “success” rate of a Ryan Theriot (22 SB/13 CS in ’08), he’s costing you possible runs.

While some players compile huge SB totals while costing their club on the base paths, both Sizemore and Granderson have shown the ability to provide quantity and quality. Sizemore has been the consistent SB threat, swiping 22 bags in ’06 (78.6% success rate), 33 in ’07 (76.7%) and 38 in 2008 (88.4%).

Granderson was just about the most effective thief in the game in 2007, snagging 26 SB’s in 27 attempts (96.3%). He didn’t really use those wheels as much this past season, however, nabbing 12 bags in 16 attempts.

Advantage: Sizemore

2009 Projections

CHONE

Sizemore: .286/.386/.503, 28 SB
Granderson: .276/.350/.474, 14 SB

Oliver

Sizemore: .273/.357/.473 (no SB projections)
Granderson: .278/.347/.484

PECOTA

Sizemore: .269/.367/.493, 27 SB
Granderson: .266/.342/.467, 11 SB

Sizemore is very likely the superior player, but don’t forget about the guy holding court in Detroit, either. MVN’s Jeff Freels recently compiled a collection of ADP figures from the likes of CBS, ESPN and Yahoo which showed Sizemore with an ADP of 5. He’s worth that, to be sure. But Granderson? He rated 52nd. If you aren’t fortunate enough to snag the across-the-board production of a Sizemore or a Carlos Beltran, Granderson could be a steal in the 4th or 5th round of your draft, particularly if he turns it loose on the bases once again.

In 2007, Magglio Ordonez posted a .363-28-139-117-4 line, easily his best work in five years. However, he did this in large part thanks to a .385 BABIP, the fifth-highest mark in the majors. In 2008, with a still-high .338 BABIP, Ordonez checked in with a .317-21-103-72-1 line. According to the RotoTimes Player Rater, it was the 47th-best hitting season in the majors last year.

The latest numbers over at Mock Draft Central have Ordonez with an ADP of 64. With 10 pitchers with a higher ADP than 64, the mockers are expecting at least a little fall back from Ordonez in 2009.

In order to justify that ADP, Ordonez will need another high BABIP. Fortunately, all five of the projection systems see him bettering his lifetime mark of .320 in the category. Ordonez has always been a good line drive hitter, he does not strike out very much and even at age 34, he ran well enough to beat out 11 infield hits last year.

But what can we expect from Ordonez in the power categories? For five straight seasons, Ordonez hit 29 or more home runs. But in his last three healthy years, he has posted HR totals of 24-28-21. The easy answer is that he went from a great park for homers in Chicago to a merely good one in Detroit.

From 2000-2002, Ordonez hit 62 HR at home and 39 on the road. Contrast that to 2006-2008, when he hit 38 HR in Comerica compared to 35 on the road.

But it is not just the ballpark. Pitchers seem to fear Ordonez less than they used to back in his Chicago days. Last year, he saw fastballs on 63.9 percent of his pitches, an unusually high number for a 30-HR threat. That was the 23rd-highest percentage of fastballs by any batter in the majors. He is surrounded on the list by weak-hitting middle infielders and catchers, and outfielders with no power. Among power hitters, only Matt Holliday and Manny Ramirez saw a greater percentage of fastballs.

The projection systems show him hitting 20-24 HR in 2009. It would not be unreasonable for him to meet these projections but at the same time it seems clear that his 30-HR days are a thing of the past.

Bottom line is that while Ordonez is capable of meeting his ADP, there is absolutely no upside if you spend an early sixth-round pick on him. And while there is nothing wrong with a player matching what you expect from him, you have to counter that with the risk involved. With Ordonez, the risk is that his BABIP fails to meet the lofty expectations and instead of being a plus with a .310+ AVG he ends up being neutral or even a negative in the category.

Despite losing one of the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball with the trade of C.C. Sabathia, the Cleveland Indians received one of the most talented up-and-coming sluggers in return from the Milwaukee Brewers. Matt LaPorta was selected seventh overall by the Brewers in the 2007 amateur draft after a four-year stay at the University of Florida.

With a young star named Prince Fielder already established at first base in Milwaukee, LaPorta was shifted off his traditional defensive position to left field. Most scouts felt the move was suicide and that the below-average-fielding first baseman would be lost in left. LaPorta’s play, though, has some now feeling that he could be a fringe-average outfielder at the Major League level. However, with the trade to Cleveland, the right-handed hitting slugger could settle into a big league gig at first base and/or designated hitter.

Currently, the club has the oft-injured Travis Hafner (left-handed hitter), and Ryan Garko (right-handed) filling the 1B/DH roles. LaPorta’s prodigious power (.577 career slugging) could match that of Hafner’s in his prime, and surpass anything that Garko (career .447 SLG, .404 in 2008) might have to offer. Hafner’s power output and slugging percentages have dropped off dramatically in the past two seasons (.451 SLG in 2007 and .323 in 2008).

LaPorta’s first full pro season was spent in Double-A in 2008, first in the Milwaukee organization (302 at-bats), and then in the Cleveland system (60 at-bats). He also spent time playing in the Olympics after the trade, where he suffered a concussion that plagued him for the remainder of the season. During his time at Double-A with Milwaukee, LaPorta hit .288/.402/.576 with an ISO of .288. He also showed his prowess as a run-producer by driving in 66 batters in just 84 games. LaPorta also posted solid rates: 13.0 BB% and 20.9 K%.

The Florida native has been seeing plenty of playing time this spring with Cleveland and is currently hitting .300/.391/.550 in eight games. There is not a lot of work he needs to do in the minors, although breaking balls still give him some trouble. LaPorta could very well open the season in Cleveland – or surface by May. If he does play the majority of the season in Cleveland, expect about 20 home runs, as well as a .260 average to go along with a healthy dose of walks and a pile of strikeouts. With experience, LaPorta will likely raise his average and cut down on the strikeouts.

Jacoby Ellsbury finished third in the majors with 50 SB last year. Along with his 98 runs scored and his .280 batting average, Ellsbury posted a $21.55 dollar value last year, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. That was the 32nd-best season by a fantasy hitter last year. The mock drafters are not completely sold on Ellsbury, giving him an ADP of 57 according to the latest update over at Mock Draft Central.

Ellsbury made 129 starts last year, a figure that should go up with Coco Crisp no longer around to siphon off playing time. That should translate into better counting numbers, including steals. As for his average, all five of the projection systems see him besting his .280 of a season ago. Last year, Ellsbury had a .314 BABIP, a reasonable number given his speed, groundball tendencies (51.7%) and line drive rate (20.3%).

Ichiro Suzuki is a similar player to Ellsbury. Here are their fantasy lines from 2008:

IS – .310-6-42-103-43
JE – .280-9-47-98-50

Now, 30 points of average is a big difference but is it worth 29 slots of ADP? Certainly, Ichiro has more of a track record and could realistically post an even higher AVG in 2009. But Ellsbury could see a boost in his numbers thanks to both the expected playing time bump and the normal improvement from a young player. Would a 60-SB, 110-R season from Ellsbury be a surprise?

Ellsbury is not going to be a big threat in either HR or RBI. But with above average production in runs along with one of the best SB totals in the game he should provide great value for fantasy players, especially given his current ADP.

In an age of ubiquitous media, it’s easy to have knee-jerk reactions. This is true in baseball circles as well, particularly when it comes to prospects. If a hot-shot minor leaguer reaches the big leagues and initially disappoints, there is a tendency to label the player a “bust” or write him off as overhyped. However, some guys just take a little longer to make good on those lofty expectations; not every youngster hits the ground running.

Jayson Werth is a perfect example of this phenomenon. The Baltimore Orioles nabbed the lanky right-handed hitter in the first round of the amateur draft all the way back in 1997. A catcher at the time, Werth showcased solid on-base skills, but he failed to put much of a charge into the baseball. Still, his combination of premium position and a refined batting eye earned him plenty of accolades. As this Baseball Prospectus article notes, Baseball America ranked Werth as the 52nd-best prospect in the minors prior to the 1999 season (Werth dealt with a hairline fracture in his wrist during the ’99 season, an unfortunate harbinger of things to come) and #48 before the 2000 campaign.

From those promising beginnings, Werth would go on to disappoint the O’s during the 2000 season, and was shipped to the Blue Jays for John Bale before 2001 kicked off. Werth split the ’01 and ’02 seasons between catcher, first base and the outfield, though his bat did improve without the strain of squatting behind the dish every day. He posted a .271/.383/.472 line between High-A and AA in 2001. “Jayson Werth, Prospect” was back at this point, as BA ranked him 70th overall following the year. Playing mostly outfield in 2002, he managed a .257/.355/.445 line at AAA.

Just when Werth looked to be back on track, he stumbled in a return engagement at Syracuse in 2003 (.237/.283/.441, 68 K in 236 AB). That, coupled with a few sour cups of coffee with the Jays, caused Toronto to cuts its losses with the 24 year-old. Werth was bartered to the Dodgers prior to the 2004 season in exchange for Jason Frasor.

The career roller coaster continued in ’04, this time hitting another high point. Werth managed a respectable .262/.338/.486 line, walking 9.4% percent of the time while showing range in the outfield. He did whiff 29.3% while showing a platoon split (.247/.318/.419 vs. RHP, .293/.381/.630 vs. LHP), but all in all it was a welcome bit of health and production for a guy with a bumpy road to the majors.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Werth’s success did not carry over into 2005. He had the misfortune of catching an A.J. Burnett fastball in the wrist during spring training, and he just never got on track in between three stints on the DL. Werth posted a 12.5 BB%, but severe contact problems (33.8 K%) and minimal thump due to the banged-up wrist (.139 ISO) led to an anemic .234/.338/.374 showing. Offseason surgery revealed ligament damage in the wrist, but the procedure did not cure what ailed him. The 2006 season was lost while recovering, and the Dodgers non-tendered Werth prior to 2007.

Near anonymous a decade after being a highly-regarded high schooler, Werth inked an $850K deal with the Phillies before the ’07 season. Philly GM Pat Gillick, head honcho of the Orioles back when Werth was a first-round selection, took a low-risk flyer and was rewarded. In 304 PA, Werth compiled a tasty .385 wOBA and batted .298/.404/.459. The 6-5, 225 pounder drew plenty of free passes (14.7%), though he did swing and miss enough to call that near-.300 average into question (28.6 K%). Werth continued to incinerate southpaws (.375/.467/.591) while merely surviving versus same-side pitching (.257/.371/.389).

After Geoff Jenkins faltered in the early going, Werth became an everyday player for the world-champion Phillies in 2008. In a career-high 482 PA, he turned in a .382 wOBA and a .273/.363/.498 line. His control of the zone remained similar (12 BB%, 28.5 K%), but Werth also translated his athleticism to the base paths by swiping 20 bags in 21 attempts. Lefties continued to feel the pain (.303/.368/.652) while righties held him in check (.255/.360/.407). Werth’s broad base of skills (walks, pop, plus defense and base running prowess) allowed him to post 5.2 Value Wins. His open-market worth was a stunning $23.4 million- talk about a sweet return on investment.

The Phillies rewarded the arbitration-eligible right fielder during the offseason, inking him to a two-year, $10M contract. Even if Werth regresses somewhat, the deal looks like a bargain for the club.

Going forward, the 29 year-old projects to post another impressive campaign in 2009. His overall line might not look as pretty- as an everyday guy, he’ll see a higher percentage of plate appearances versus right-handed pitchers- but his on-base adeptness, decent power production and 20 SB potential make Werth worth a draft pick in all leagues.

Shane Victorino made a great leap forward in 2007, doubling his HR output and seeing a nine-fold increase in his SB totals. He kept those gains in 2008, although in over 117 more plate appearances. Fantasy owners are big believers in Victorino, as he now holds an ADP of 51 according to the latest update over at Mock Draft Central.

Victorino, while no slouch in other categories, gets most of his value from steals. Over the past two seasons, he ranks 10th overall in SB with 73. So the big question for him going forward is how likely is he to maintain his current level of production.

In 2007, Victorino was safe on 37 of 41 attempts for an outstanding 90 percent of his stolen base tries. Last year his success rate fell to 77 percent, still a fine number but off considerably from just a season ago.

The four projection systems that predict SB all show Victorino with less than 30 in 2009. CHONE gives him 23 SB, which is the 46th-best mark in the system. ZiPS has him down for 24, which is tied for 62nd-best in the majors.

Marcel, which uses a weighted average of the past three seasons, gives him 26 SB which ties him for 13th-best. The Bill James system gives him 27 steals.

A 10-bag drop in stolen bases would have a huge impact on Victorino. Those who spend a late fourth or early fifth-round pick on him are betting that he can beat the projection systems. This is not an unreasonable wager, he has done it the past two seasons, but a pick that early values Victorino at the top of his range.

Last Player Picked has Victorino as the 43rd-best hitter in fantasy baseball last year. If he matches what he did last year, he gives you equivalent value for his ADP. But there seems to be very little upside for Victorino there and the real possibility that he turns into a disappointment if he fails to crack 30 steals.

Curtis Granderson was a fantasy star in 2007, when he posted a .302-22-74-122-26 line, which was the 16th-best overall season according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. But Granderson came down with a broken finger in Spring Training last year and missed the first 21 games of the season.

He was not as dominant as he was in 2007 but Granderson still had a $16 fantasy season last year. Somewhat surprisingly, he nearly matched his big year in HR and RBIs, but fell off significantly in SB and AVG.

The projection systems do not see a rebound in average, mainly because his .302 mark in 2007 was fueled by a .362 BABIP, a mark Granderson is unlikely to duplicate. But the projections are also bearish on the 28-year old returning to 20+SB. The three systems that predict steals show him with 13 (Marcel) or 14 (Bill James and CHONE).

But there is a better chance for Granderson to approach his 2007 SB numbers than to hit .300 again. And it goes back to his broken finger. Doctors recommended that Granderson go easy in all workouts while he was recovering from the finger injury, worried that he might jar the finger and suffer a setback.

When Granderson returned, his legs were not in the shape they normally were and his running game suffered. After being successful on 26 of 27 attempts in 2007, Granderson was thrown out on four of his first eight attempts last year. But he was successful on his final eight tries of the year, and only a brutal September, in which he batted .192 with a .294 OBP, kept his attempts down.

A 25-HR, 25-SB season is not out of the question for Granderson. And combined with his likely high Runs total (he averaged 117 runs the past two seasons), Granderson has the potential to be a top-25 fantasy hitter. He currently has an ADP of 49, making Granderson a potential bargain for owners who get him in the late fourth or early fifth round.

Carl Crawford gives owners high average and lots of steals as well as contributing in the other three categories. This led him to an ADP of 15 prior to the 2008 season. But finger and hamstring injuries led to a sub-par year for Crawford. This year, mock drafters are being cautious with the Tampa Bay outfielder, giving him an ADP of 29.

All four of the major projection systems see Crawford bouncing back to an average in the .290s this season. The difference is in how valuable they see that being worth. CHONE sees Crawford’s .298 as the 17th-best mark in the majors. Marcel shows his .292 as the 46th-best while Oliver has his .292 as the 31st-best.

The projection systems also show Crawford with 30+ SB. He fares better in this metric, as CHONE has him tied for seventh in the majors with 38 steals and Marcel has him tied for ninth with 32.

The problem is that these are Crawford’s best categories. He needs an average solidly-above .290 and SB totals well over 35 to merit his current ADP. That is because the predicted HR power has simply not materialized for Crawford. Only once in his six seasons as a regular has he cleared double digits in HR/FB rate. That came in 2006 when his rate was 12 percent and he hit a career-high 18 homers.

Before you spend a late-second, early third-round pick on Crawford, be sure you are comfortable projecting the stats for him to return that value. His career-best average is .315, his top mark in runs scored is 104 and his best RBI season is 81. And before you decide he is a lock to steal 50 bases because of his fabulous success ratios, ask how likely it is that Tampa Bay will allow him to attempt the 60-70 steals he has previously in his career, especially since he no longer slots in as the team’s leadoff hitter.

Outfielder Andrew McCutchen has been on the prospect map ever since high school – when he was selected in the first round by Pittsburgh in 2005. The Florida native has been one of the Pirates’ top offensive prospects since signing his first pro contract and he spent all of 2008 in Triple-A at the age of 21.

McCutchen was originally supposed to develop into a five-tool player, but his power has not developed as planned (.115 ISO in 2008), although he did steal 34 bases in 53 attempts last season. Overall, he hit .283/.372/.398 in 512 at-bats. McCutchen also posted rates of 11.7 BB%, which was higher than his career average, and 17.0 K%. His strikeout rates have lowered from where they sat earlier in his career, which shows he’s making adjustments and coming to grips with the type of player that he is (ie. Not a power hitter). Defensively, McCutchen is an above-average fielder, but his arm is just average for center field.

The Pirates organization has slowly gathered together a very impressive young outfield that will eventually include McCutchen, Jose Tabata (obtained from the Yankees in the Xavier Nady deal), and Brandon Moss (obtained from the Red Sox in the Jason Bay trade). Toss in the already-established Nate McLouth and the powerful Steve Pearce (who could see time at first base as well) and you have five players with bright futures.

Word out of Pittsburgh is that the club plans to have McCutchen begin the season in Triple-A again, but he has also received the most at-bats of any player this spring – although he is just 1-for-13 with seven strikeouts and may be pressing. Pearce, McLouth and Moss appear to have the inside tracks on starting jobs. The club also has veteran utility player Eric Hinske on hand, as well as the speedy Nyjer Morgan. Tabata has been slowed by injuries this spring and should also be in Triple-A to begin 2009.

McCutchen likely won’t be down for long and could very well push Pearce or Moss to a platoon or part-time role by the All-Star break. If McCutchen gets half a season at the Major League level, expect a batting average of around .270 and 10-15 stolen bases. He won’t be a star immediately, but he could definitely help Fantasy owners in the second half of the season who are in need of cheap steals. McCutchen is a great choice for keeper leagues too.

Earlier today, we reflected upon the impressive performances turned in by Marlon Byrd and Nelson Cruz in 2008. While both could provide some value in 2009, it probably wouldn’t be wise to expect repeat performances. Now, let’s turn our attention to a guy who has nowhere to go but up (Andruw Jones) and a sophomore fighting to stay in the lineup (David Murphy).

It’s difficult to avert one’s eyes away from Jones’ abrupt, dramatic fall from grace; his 2008 season was the baseball equivalent of a car wreck. Andruw seemed well-positioned to rebound from a down 2007 season:

2006: .375 wOBA, 12.7 BB%, 22.5 K%, .269 ISO, .270 BABIP
2007: .314 wOBA, 10.9 BB%, 24.1 K%, .191 ISO, .248 BABIP

After a monster 2006 campaign, Jones saw his wOBA fall over 60 points. However, there were some reasons to remain sanguine about the long-time Brave. While his power was down in 2007, a .190+ ISO is still nothing to sneeze at, and his control of the strike zone remained largely unchanged. With an uptick in his BABIP, Jones figured to rebound from his .222/.311/.413 showing.

Suffice it to say, that didn’t occur. Signed to a two-year, $36.2 million by the Dodgers, Jones showed up to spring training looking a good 20 to 30 pounds overweight. Perhaps not coincidentally, he battled knee problems and posted a line that made Chin-Lung Hu feel better about himself: in 238 PA, Jones “hit” .158/.256/.249, striking out 36.4% of the time. Despite that minimal playing time, Jones manged to compile -17.9 batting runs.

Jones’ career cliff dive is flabbergasting. 32 in April, the Netherlands Antilles native appeared to possess the sort of broad skill set that would age well: he had patience and power at the plate, but he supplemented that with athleticism that allowed him to cover large swaths of territory in center field- check out his UZR/150 totals on his player page. Projecting where Jones goes from here is a fool’s errand, but it would be prudent not to completely write him off just yet.

As unbelievably macabre as his ’08 work was (the Dodgers gave him a unique severance package to go far, far away, and Jones is in Rangers camp on a $500K minor league deal), Jones is not that far removed from being a valuable commodity. His defense in center was still above-average even with all the extra girth, and Josh Hamilton (-16.4 UZR/150 in CF) is best off in an outfield corner. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities than Andruw works his way onto the 25-man roster.

While Jones is looking to pick up the charred remains of his career, Murphy is still in the early stages of his big league stint. The 27 year-old lefty was acquired from the Red Sox (along with toolsy outfield prospect Engel Beltre and low-upside southpaw Kason Gabbard) for Eric Gagne (speaking of charred careers..) in a July 2007 swap. Blocked in Boston, Murphy saw a good deal of work for the Rangers last season, batting .275/.321/.465 in 454 PA.

The former first-rounder from Baylor was often disappointing in the power department in the Sox farm system (the 6-4, 205 pounder slugged just .407 during his minor league career), so the .190 ISO with Texas was surprising. Still, there does not appear to be a whole lot of upside here: Murphy is in that age range where what you see is generally what you get. The overall package of mild plate discipline (career 7.2 BB%), solid contact (17.3 K%) and average power make Murphy appear as more of a good fourth outfielder than a guy you want patrolling an outfield corner on a day-in, day-out basis.

Brandon Boggs and Frank Catalanotto bear passing mention, though neither projects to soak up many AB’s in 2009. Boggs, a switch-hitting 26 year-old, has a history of working the count and striking out in excess of 30% of his trips to the plate in the minors. Both of those trends continued with the Rangers last season (13.5 BB%, 32.9 K%, .324 wOBA in 334 PA). A good athlete who can draw a walk, Boggs could be a decent extra outfielder, but the contact issues preclude hopes for more than that. Catalanotto will make $4 million in 2009, though his role and utility to the club are not readily apparent. The soon-to-be 35 year-old is the 5th outfielder and backup first baseman. If Jones makes the club, Catalanotto might get the boot.