Archive for Outfielders

Lost in all of the hot stove rumblings from the winter meetings yesterday was some moves that Rangers manager Ron Washington mentioned in his “state of the team” press conference. In his presser, Washington said that Julio Borbon will play centerfield and bat leadoff, allowing Josh Hamilton to move to left field. However, these plans could change if Marlon Byrd resigns with the team.

After being called up in early August, Borbon hit .312/.376/.414, stealing 19 bases in 23 tries. He also hit 4 homers in 179 plate appearances. You, the fan, project Borbon to hit .297/.355/.392 next year, with 33 steals in 116 games. I am a bit more optimistic when it comes to Borbon’s average, which I believe could stay above .300, but a .297 average is still acceptable if he steals 30+ bases. While Borbon is a great player, things have to go a certain way this offseason for him to keep his current value. It will probably take more than Byrd signing with the team to drop Borbon out of the lineup, because Byrd could play left field and allow Hamilton to play DH. However, if the Rangers resign Byrd and pickup a DH, Borbon’s playing time would hit a significant snag. I don’t see the Rangers signing Byrd at all, let along Byrd and a DH, so Borbon is safe in my book.

Also mentioned was the Rangers plan to bat shortstop Elvis Andrus ninth in the order, allowing he and Borbon to hit back-to-back. Many owners, such as myself, have been hoping that Andrus would be moved up in the order, allowing him score more runs and get more at-bats for extra stolen base chances.

Andrus hit .267/.329/.373 with 33 steals in 541 plate appearances. Fans are projecting a .277 average with 42 steals next year, numbers bound to make any owner happy. We know Andrus is going to play, but more at-bats throughout the year would have been nice to have, even if it doesn’t necessarily hurt his value.

We checked in on left field this week, and now it’s time to take a look at some of the guys that didn’t make the mixed-league cut but will provide value in deeper leagues. Left field continues to provide value down here on this section of the list.

It was hard to fit Travis Snider in the top fifteen fantasy left fielders for 2010, but he has upside to reach far into the top ten. We already talked about how he needs to cut down the strikeouts (32.2% career), but he may not have that much improvement left in that category, considering his minor league numbers (28.7% career). The power looks real though – his ISO is already good (.175) and has the chance to get better, as he had better ISOs in the minors. An okay batting average and some home runs are on the way – Toronto currently has Jose Bautista and his lifetime .238 batting average penciled in for an outfield spot.

Carlos Guillen got some love in the comments thread, but is in the midst of a three-year decline in most of his categories and has averaged only 400 at-bats over the last two years. Now he’s the full-time left fielder according to his manager, so at least his role is defined. There was some good news last year when he came back – his ISO rebounded from a terrible 2008. If his BABIP hadn’t been terrible (.267), then he might have looked okay. Given 500 plate appearances, he could put together another year with a .800+ OPS and 20 or so home runs. Don’t pay full price, though, because of his brittleness.

Seth Smith is the younger, better talent than Guillen, but he has no defined role until Brad Hawpe leaves town. Right now, I’d rather pick Chase Headley or Chris Coghlan over Smith despite their relative lack of power next to the Rockies’ left field youngster. Headley and Coghlan have a starting role on their teams, no matter what their faults are.

Headley and Coghlan both have different faults, but are promising. Headley’s name isn’t as prominent right now, so he’ll probably return a better value by providing more power at a cheaper price. The knock on him used to be the strikeouts (27% career), but he made good strides last year in that department (24.5%). The former third baseman is a little puzzling – he has a high career BABIP (.340) that was formerly propped up by his line drive rates (24.5% in 2008) and slipped to .326 this year with a poor line drive rate (16.5%). His xBABIP last year was .317 last year and .326 for his career, so he has been slightly lucky, but not extremely so. The fact remains that his career away split (.301/.368/.437 in 492 ABs) shows his upside, which is worth chasing.

Coghlan is coming off a great debut, and is worth a mid-round pick should Dan Uggla move on and vacate second base in Florida. He’s certainly a good hitter – his walk rate (9.5%) and strikeout rate (15.3%) were both great and also in line with his minor league work. The speed is there (72 stolen bases and 18 caught stealings in the minor leagues) so despite his poor rate last year (62% success rate), he should be good for the 20 stolen bases James predicts, if not more as he learns the nuances of major league pitchers. Just don’t go expecting more power, his minor league .153 ISO probably presents his upside (.139 last year). If his Rookie of the Year hardware doesn’t zoom him up in drafts (past where a .300-hitting 10/25 player should go), he’s obviously a good player wherever he plays.

As a Chicago Cub, Jake Fox was a swing-from-the-heels slugger without a defensive home.

The 6-0, 210 pound Fox roamed around the diamond in the minors, logging time at catcher, first base, the outfield corners and third base.

But the Cubs are set at the infield corners with Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee. Alfonso Soriano, he of bum wheels and -0.7 WAR in 2009 (only five years and $90M left on that contract!), will patrol left field. Kosuke Fukudome could shift back to right field in 2010 if Chicago adds a center fielder. And, Fox hasn’t really been taken seriously as a backstop.

As such, a trade to the A.L. seemed likely. Yesterday, Fox was indeed shipped to the Junior Circuit. The Oakland A’s acquired the 27 year-old righty batter and IF Aaron Miles for RHPs Jeff Gray and Ronny Morla and OF Matt Spencer.

Fox famously went all Babe Ruth on the Pacific Coast League in 2009, blasting 17 HR and posting a .409/.495/.841 line in 194 PA. The University of Michigan product holds a career .293/.357/.528 triple-slash in the minors, with a .235 ISO. Fox has mostly hacked and asked questions later, walking in 6.9% of his plate appearances.

With the Cubs in desperate need of some offensive thump, Fox logged 241 PA in the big leagues while shuffling between third base, the outfield corners, and first base (he logged a few innings at catcher, too). He compiled a .259/.311/.468 line, popping 11 homers with a .208 ISO.

Fox remained ultra-aggressive, chasing 37.7% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). He also took a cut at 77.8% of in-zone offerings, compared to the 66% major league average. His 56.7% swing rate ranked in the top 10 in the majors among batters with 240+ PA. Fox walked in just 6.1% of his PA.

It’s not a good idea to put too much stock in less than half a season’s worth of pitch data, but Fox was greeted with plenty of off-speed stuff in 2009. Big league pitchers tossed him a fastball just 44.5% of the time, the lowest percentage among hitters with 240+ PA. Chicago’s 3rd round pick in the ’03 draft hammered heaters (+0.51 runs/100), while posting negative run values vs. curves, sliders and changeups.

Now in Oakland, Fox could figure into the competition for AB’s at DH and third base. Jack Cust, coming off of a .342 wOBA season, is a possible trade/non-tender candidate. Fox’s qualifications at third are suspect. But with Eric Chavez and Dallas McPherson his primary competition (assuming Brett Wallace opens the year in the minors), Fox could hold an advantage by simply being ambulatory.

For 2010, Bill James projects a whopping .284/.339/.546 line for Fox in limited playing time. That strikes me as wildly optimistic. CHONE’s forecast appears much more reasonable, with a projected .257/.316/.452 performance. Fox’s power and newfound opportunity in Oakland make him a more appealing fantasy target. Just don’t get too giddy over a couple dominant months in the cornfields of Iowa.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, and third basemen.)

These rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

Ryan Braun is in a league of his own. With his massive power, speed and plus batting averages, he’s the young Alex Rodriguez of the outfield.

That said, the second tier offers some nice talent and I’m sure some will feel that the first tier could be expanded. Carl Crawford matched his best two seasons with another .300/15/60 effort, and at 28 there’s no real reason to predict a downfall next year. If you’d like your speedster to come with a few home runs, he’s one of probably two players in the league capable of putting up 15 home runs alongside 55+ stolen bases. Matt Holliday is sort of a Braun-lite, but if the stars aligned, his power could surge and make them practically indistinguishable for fantasy purposes.

That’s where the arguments should end. Jason Bay is on the way down along with his batting average, and even with his nice power and a sprinkling of stolen bases, he’s no first-tier player. Manny Ramirez just won’t play enough games next year, shold be on the way down just because of his age (37), and now has the PED question mark. Adam Lind may someday be in the conversation for the first tier, but the power currently has too many question marks (+.100 ISO from 2008-2009).

The third tier is the value tier. The best tiers are the ones where up-and-coming youngsters share space with declining veterans because one or the other is sure to be over- or under-valued in a given league. Does your tier value veterans too highly? Let them have Carlos Lee and his waning power and speed. Someone sure that Alfonso Soriano will rediscover his mojo? Pick the surging Nolan Reimold for his power and enjoy his surprising speed many rounds later. Even Johnny Damon’s metronome-like 20/20-ish production deserves a look here. Given all of these options, it does look like Raul Ibanez won’t be on many of my teams next year. Not when I can possibly get more power from Carlos Quentin later on.

The last tier reminds us why we don’t pick outfielders too early. The final grouping boasts a player that could steal 40+ bases with a starting job in Julio Borbon, and a trio of sluggers that are likely to hit between 25-30 home runs in Matt LaPorta, Juan Rivera and Josh Willingham. Even the just-off candidates are interesting. If Seth Smith gets a starting job, he rockets up the list with .300/25/10 potential. Travis Snider is battling some strikeout issues at the major league level and doesn’t have a guaranteed job coming out of spring training, but deserves a mention because of his minor league numbers (1.094 OPS in AAA last year) and age (21).

One thing is clear when looking at the left fielders in 2010: Unless you’re getting Braun (or maybe Crawford), it’s wise to wait.

When the Milwaukee Brewers selected Matt LaPorta with the 7th overall pick in the 2007 draft, some fans and analysts did a spit-take.

Few doubted that the University of Florida slugger could rake. An injury-plagued junior season, coupled with a hefty price tag, caused LaPorta to drop to the 14th round of the ’06 draft (he and the Red Sox couldn’t come to terms). But the 6-2, 210 pound righty possessed what Baseball America described as “plus-plus raw power.” Having recovered from an oblique injury, LaPorta’s pop was a “game-changing tool.”

The problem, the skeptics said, came on the other side of the equation. LaPorta was praised for his polished bat but penalized for plodding defense. With Prince Fielder entrenched at first base, where would LaPorta play?

To the club’s credit, the Brewers drafted based on pure talent instead of myopically taking a player who better fit a short-term organizational need. The composition of a major league roster is far too fluid to draft based on filling some immediate void. If LaPorta’s bat was as good as advertised, Milwaukee at worst had a coveted trade chip.

After the ink dried on his $2M signing bonus and a strained quad muscle healed, LaPorta destroyed fresh-faced pitchers late in the 2007 season (.304/.369/.696 in 130 PA between Rookie Ball and Low-A).

In an effort to fit his bat into the big league picture, LaPorta played the outfield corners. BA rated the former Gator as the best prospect in the Brewers system, saying that he “shouldn’t need much more than a full season in the minors before becoming an impact hitter in Milwaukee.”

Realizing that LaPorta’s lumber was highly advanced, the Brewers jumped their prized hitter up to AA Huntsville in 2008. He shone brightest in a prospect-laden Stars lineup, hammering the Southern League for a .288/.402/.576 triple-slash in 366 PA. LaPorta popped 20 homers, with a .288 ISO. He was no hacker either, walking in 13% of his PA and whiffing at a rather modest rate for a slugger (20 K%).

Looking to make the playoffs for the first time since Harvey’s Wallbangers back in 1982, the Brewers cashed in their best prospect in July to acquire CC Sabathia from the Indians.

LaPorta headed to Cleveland along with RHP Rob Bryson, LHP Zach Jackson and a PTBNL that eventually became OF Michael Brantley.

He played in the Beijing Olympics after the swap, suffering a concussion in a mid-August contest. In 67 PA at AA with his new club, LaPorta hit .233/.299/.350. BA dubbed him the second-best prospect in Cleveland’s system entering 2009. As Milwaukee had, Cleveland played LaPorta mostly in left and right field.

Splitting the ’09 campaign between AAA Columbus and Cleveland, LaPorta laid waste to International League pitching while getting his feet wet in the majors.

LaPorta compiled a .299/.388/.530 line in 393 AAA PA, smashing 23 HR with a .231 ISO. His strike-zone control remained excellent, walking 11.1% of the time and punching out just 16.6%. According to Minor League Splits, LaPorta’s work in the minors translated to a .263/.336/.446 major league line.

With Cleveland, he turned in a .254/.308/.442 triple-slash in 198 PA, with a .327 wOBA. LaPorta slammed 7 dingers and recovered from a slow start to post a .188 ISO, though he didn’t work the count especially well. He drew a free pass 6.2% of the time, with a 28.9 outside-swing percentage (25% MLB average). LaPorta manned the outfield corners and first base.

LaPorta’s long-term defensive home is still up in the air. He shifted between the outfield and first base at AAA and in the majors, and his TotalZone defensive numbers don’t paint a pretty picture of his work running down balls in the gaps.

His bat, on the other hand, looks major league ready. LaPorta’s projections for the 2010 season don’t jump off the page, but he figures to be an above-average hitter with the potential to best his offensive forecasts. Bill James foresees a .347 wOBA from LaPorta next season, while Sean Smith’s CHONE throws out a line that also equates to a wOBA of .347. If I were a betting man, I would take the “over” on that wOBA.

The big question for LaPorta entering 2010 is his health. He underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left hip and left big toe in October. The procedures came with a 4-6 month recovery period, meaning he could be behind his teammates come spring training.

Twenty-five years old in January, LaPorta has the offensive skills to be an asset in mixed leagues. Track his progress as the offseason progresses. If his hip and toe are healing well, he could be a steal on draft day.

According to MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez, the Chicago White Sox have come to terms with Andruw Jones on a one-year, $500K contract with $1M in possible incentives.

Jones famously fell of the face of the Earth after inking a two-year, $36.2M deal with the Dodgers prior to the 2008 season. His wOBA in L.A. was a macabre .234. In just 238 PA with the men in blue, Jones managed to post -17.9 Park Adjusted Batting Runs.

Forced to take a minor league deal from the Rangers before the 2009 season (the Dodgers paid him to go far, far away), Jones was essentially a league-average batter in Arlington.

In 331 PA, Andruw batted .214/.323/.459. His wOBA was .338. After adjusting for the hitter-friendly nature of The Ballpark in Arlington, Jones posted +1.5 Batting Runs. He worked the count well (13.8 BB%), while crushing fastballs for a +1.28 run value per 100 pitches. Off-speed stuff caught him flat-footed, however: -1.25 runs/100 vs. sliders, -0.65 vs. curveballs and -0.41 vs. changeups.

Jones had just a .224 BABIP in 2009. The gut reaction is to say “fluke!” But Andruw’s BABIP since 2005 is .248. His career BABIP is .279.

Why might that be? Well, Jones hits a lot of fly balls. Andruw’s 49.5 FB% in 2009 was 12th-highest among batters with 300 or more PA. While fly balls are obviously beneficial to a slugger like Jones, they do have a lower BABIP than grounders. Also, Andruw pops the ball up frequently. His IF/FB% was 13.3 in 2009. Pop ups are near automatic outs.

Odds are, the 32 year-old won’t continue to post a BABIP in the .220’s. But his batted ball profile and track record suggest that he probably won’t see that BABIP skyrocket, either.

Still, Jones constitutes a nice, low-cost investment for the White Sox. He still has quality secondary skills (walks and power), and he’s guaranteed next to nothing in terms of salary. Bill James’ projections forecast a .335 wOBA for Andruw in 2010, while CHONE spits out a less-optimistic .323 mark.

The MLB.com article quotes White Sox GM Kenny Williams:

“This is an opportunity to add a power bat to the roster while improving our outfield depth,” White Sox general manager Ken Williams said in a statement. “With the addition of Andruw, Mark Kotsay and Omar Vizquel, we feel our bench is taking shape to be a strong asset heading into the 2010 season.”

Clearly, Chicago is not anticipating giving everyday AB’s to Jones next year. As a DH, he would basically be replacement-level. But if you feel that Andruw could play, say, +5 run defense in an outfield corner (he has a superb track record and hasn’t embarrassed himself in limited time in ’08 and ’09), he could be a league-average starter.

Jones is worth tracking as spring training approaches. The White Sox are looking at him as a depth signing, but the club is currently without a right fielder. And LF Carlos Quentin, slowed by Plantar fasciitis in 2009, has a career -5.3 UZR/150 between the outfield corners.

Andruw could be a fall-back option if other RF candidates aren’t appealing or if the Pale Hose give Quentin more time at DH. If he gets enough playing time, Jones still has enough bat to stay relevant in A.L.-only leagues.

In 2008, OF Josh Hamilton finally turned in the kind of season that scouts envisioned when Tampa Bay selected him with the 1st overall pick in the 1999 amateur draft.

Shipped from the Reds to the Rangers in a December 2007 challenge trade for RHP Edinson Volquez, Hamilton crushed to the tune of a .385 wOBA. The lefty clubbed 32 home runs, while posting a .226 ISO and a HR/FB rate of 19.2%.

Sure, the Ballpark in Arlington played a part. According to ESPN’s park factors, Arlington has boosted run scoring by seven percent compared to a neutral ballpark from 2007-2009, while increasing HR production by 14 percent. But Hamilton was no ball park creation. He posted 29.7 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs in ’08. Even accounting for the hitter-happy tendencies of his home field, Hamilton was three wins above average with the bat.

Many fantasy players ponied up a primo pick on Hamilton entering 2009. Per Fantasy Gameday’s Average Draft Position and Scarcity Report compiled back in February, Hamilton’s ADP was ninth overall.

Unfortunately, Hamilton’s various aches and pains in ’09 had owners keeling over in anguish as well. The 28 year-old dealt with a laundry list of injuries, most notably a partially torn abdominal muscle requiring surgery in June and a pinched nerve in his lower back that effectively made him a spectator in September.

Getting just 365 PA during the season, Hamilton limped to a .321 wOBA. His ISO plunged to .158. Hamilton hit more fly balls than usual (41.8 percent, compared to about 33 percent from 2007-2008), but those extra flys died in the outfield pasture. His HR/FB rate dipped to 9.2%. Josh was below-average with the stick, with -3.6 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs.

Hamilton still slammed fastballs, hitting them for +1.36 runs per 100 pitches. But anything off-speed flummoxed him: -0.44 runs/100 versus sliders, -2.43 against curveballs and -3.19 versus changeups.

He was extremely aggressive during his banner 2008 campaign, swinging at 34.7% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (25% MLB average) while taking a cut at 80.6% of pitches within the zone (66% MLB average). But Hamilton was even less selective in 2009. He had a 36.1 O-Swing%, with an 85.7 Z-Swing%.

Hamilton swung at more pitches within the zone than any other batter with at least 350 PA (Pablo Sandoval was a distant second, at 82.9%). However, he made contact just 80 percent of the time that he offered at a pitch over the dish (88% MLB average).

His O-Swing% was 13th-highest among hitters with 350+ PA. With Hamilton anxious to get the lumber off his shoulder (he swung at the 9th-most pitches among all batters), he posted a 65.3 first-pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average). Josh got behind the pitcher 0-and-1 or put the ball in play on the first pitch at the sixth-highest rate in the majors. His walk rate dipped from 9.3% to 6.7%.

It’s important to keep in mind that all of these numbers came in what amounts to slightly more than a half season’s worth of PA, while Hamilton was far less than 100 percent healthy. The lack of plate discipline is somewhat troubling. But if Josh can remain upright in 2010, there’s certainly reason to believe that he can bounce back.

Bill James 2010 projections are out, and Hamilton is tabbed for a .372 wOBA. While James’ projections tend to smile upon hitters more than most other systems, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a more healthy Hamilton post a wOBA somewhere in the .360-.370 range.

Hamilton presents a dilemma for fantasy owners entering 2010. On one hand, he certainly won’t cost a premium draft pick, and a healthier Hamilton has the potential to yield a high return on investment. But on the other hand, should anyone really assume that he will be healthier? Hamilton has three major league seasons under his belt. He has missed big chunks of the year in two of those three seasons.

So, are you feeling lucky? Personally, I would expect Hamilton to hit in the .360-.370 wOBA range, while serving a DL stint or two that limits him to 400-some PA. What do you guys think?

After proving he can hit against American League pitching, Jason Bay is all set to get paid after a solid fantasy season.

Bay hit .267/.384/.537 with a career high 36 homers and 119 RBI. He also chipped in 100 runs and even provided owners with 13 steals in his first full season with Boston. Many of his fantasy owners may not have been happy with the drop in batting average, at the expense of five extra home runs. I don’t think they minded too much, but when you are counting on a guy to hit .280, you’d always like him to do so.

Because he’s turned in two good offensive seasons in a row, he will be seeking a nice payday before he steps back on the field in 2010. The Red Sox have been rumored to be willing to go as high as $15 million a year, but R.J. Anderson already analyzed why their history does not support that rumor. The Mets, Cardinals, Angels, Giants, Braves and possibly the Yankees will be in the market for a big time left fielder.

The Mets are going to make the strongest push towards Matt Holliday, as will the Cardinals and Bay’s former employers in Boston. The Giants may not be willing to spend the big bucks, but could make Bay feel wanted if they focus on him from the start. The Yankees aren’t likely to go big again this offseason, but Bay’s value could slip into the range where they almost have to get involved.

Where Bay ends up this offseason will be huge for his value. If he stays with a great team like the Red Sox who will surround him with talent, his RBI and run production should remain at a steady rate. If he decides to follow the money to a team that may be of a lesser quality (Giants, Mets), he may feel forced to do things all by his lonesome and his game could suffer because of it.

In Boston, I doubt any of his old mates will be complaining if he leaves. If he goes out of town, chances are Boston will fill his spot with another big bat. The Red Sox lineup always seems to produce, so their players have nothing to worry about. His new teammates will enjoy his presence in their lineup, and he will boost their runs and RBI.

Bay may not be the best overall player in the league, but he is a big bat for fantasy owners, especially in OBP leagues. No matter where he goes, he will hit home runs and drive in runs, but a return to Fenway would be best for his fantasy value.

The Chicago White Sox declined Jermaine Dye’s $12MM option for 2010, officially making him a free agent. Dye was expected to be a free agent all season, and the White Sox’s acquisition of Mark Teahen all but sealed the deal.

At 35, Dye is on his last leg as a major league ball player. He hit .250/.340/.453 with 27 home runs and 81 RBI in 2009. Dye has officially developed his old person skills, with his walk rate 2.9% above his career average and above 11% for the first time in his career. He can still hit homers, so he has some value to fantasy owners.

He may even be able to give you a better average than anyone expects next year. His BABIP was .269, while his xBABIP was .295. His line drive rate was the second lowest of his career (16.9%), but even so, his BABIP will come closer to his .300 career average in 2010.

Because Dye is an abysmal defender, his options will be limited in free agency, and he will have to lower his asking price for teams to be seriously interested. Because the outfield market has big bats ahead of him (Jason Bay and Matt Holliday), Dye will have to settle for a lesser deal with a team looking for a veteran outfielder or DH.

The Giants may settle for Dye if they can’t get Bay, and Dye could welcome a return to the Bay Area. The Rangers have expressed interest in Dye, but it’s unclear if Dye is willing to DH. Atlanta is looking for a right handed bat, and Dye came up from the Braves farm system before being dealt to the Royals in ’97. If the Angels decide they don’t want to hang onto Vladimir Guerrero, then Dye could fill his role as the DH. He may not be able to play the field, but at least he can move better than Vlad can.

The best team for Dye from a fantasy perspective would probably be the Rangers. Their park is a home run hitters dream, and he would be surrounded by good talent, giving him plenty of runs and RBI opportunities. The Angels are the next best option, with the Giants and Braves falling behind, in that order.

Don’t expect too much from Dye in 2010, but value him higher than most owners will due to his BABIP. Don’t call him a sleeper, but he should be a decent value pick as a second or third outfielder in your next draft.

Thanks to the Hardball Times’ xBABIP calculator for xBABIP data

With human vacuum Alcides Escobar ready for everyday play and incumbent shortstop J.J. Hardy turning in a disappointing 2009 season, the Milwaukee Brewers were determined to shop Hardy this offseason.

It didn’t take long for the Brew Crew to find a trade partner, as the Minnesota Twins acquired Hardy today in exchange for center fielder Carlos Gomez.

Because of a demotion to the minor leagues in August, Hardy will be under team control for the 2010 and 2011 seasons (he would have been eligible for free agency following 2010 without the unwelcomed Nashville vacation).

The 27 year-old is a slick fielder in his own right, but his lumber was MIA in 2009. Hardy posted a solid .338 wOBA in 2007, then followed that up with a .355 mark in 2008.

This past year, though? J.J. turned in a .292 wOBA. After compiling +3.5 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs in ’07 and +13.7 in ’08, Hardy sunk to -13.2 in 2009.

What happened to Hardy’s bat, and can we expect a rebound in 2010?

The first thing that jumps out about Hardy’s line is his .264 BABIP, well below his .306 mark in 2008 and his career .280 BABIP.

Hardy’s career BABIP is fairly low, likely because he had lofty infield/fly ball rates from 2005-2008 (pop ups are near automatic outs). And, Hardy did post a very low line drive rate in 2009 (13.9 percent).

But even so, J.J. was unlucky on balls put in play in 2009. He actually didn’t pop the ball up excessively (9.1 IF/FB%), taking away one possible cause of the low BABIP. Using this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, we get a .306 XBABIP for Hardy, based on his HR, K, SB, line drive rate, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls.

Even assuming all hits were singles, that would raise Hardy’s triple-slash from .229/.302/.357 to a less-wretched .271/.344/.399. His power was down in ’09 (.128 ISO, .166 career average), but his adjusted line equates to a wOBA of roughly .330. That’s a little better than Hardy’s career .325 wOBA. Essentially, his 2009 performance wasn’t all that different from his overall level of play at the major league level.

Heading into 2010, owners should expect Hardy to be neither the offensive stud of 2008 nor the offensive dud of 2009. Hardy looks like a slightly above-average big league hitter. Considering that J.J. is a plus defender at a premium position, it looks as though the Twins got exceptional value here.

Going to Milwaukee is Gomez, who is under team control until 2013. In February of 2008, the Dominican Republic native was the principal prospect acquired in the Johan Santana blockbuster. Now, Gomez heads back to the N.L., presumably replacing pending free agent Mike Cameron.

Turning 24 in December, Gomez derives almost all of his value from his legs. The 6-4, 215 pound righty has yet to show much ability at the dish. His career wOBA in 1,100+ PA is .286. Gomez has walked just 5.1 percent of the time, while hacking at 35.1% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (his O-Swing% was 29.9 in 2009).

Gomez has a peculiar profile at the plate. He’s as speedy as they come (7.6 career Speed Score, compared to an MLB average around five). Yet, his career groundball rate is just 44.4%, near the MLB average. The former Mets prospect does just about nothing with the fly balls that he hits.

His major league HR/FB rate is 4.6%. Gomez has a career .373 slugging percentage on fly balls. For reference, the AL average was .603 in 2009. When he isn’t hitting harmless flies, Gomez is popping the ball up at an alarming rate. His career IF/FB% is 16.1%.

Given Gomez’s lack of pop and his issues with fastballs (career -1.33 runs per 100 pitches), Milwaukee’s new fly catcher has seen a surprisingly low proportion of heaters (52.6 percent). Of course, he hasn’t really lit it up against sliders (-0.26), curves (-0.37) or changeups (-2.17), either.

Gomez’s wheels are what keep him on the fantasy radar. He swiped 12 out of 15 bags in 2007, 33 in 44 attempts in 2008 and a less-impressive 14-for-21 in 2009. Gomez has a 73.8% SB success rate in the majors.

At the present moment, Gomez is one of those “more valuable in regular baseball than fantasy” guys. He covers a ton of ground in the field (career +14.2 UZR/150 in CF), but he is totally lost at the plate. Owners jonesing for steals will be interested, and it’s possible that Gomez will show something more offensively, given his relative youth. But as the old saying goes, you can’t steal first base.