I have to admit, these posts are a joy. In no other article could you possibly recommend a hitter slashing .243/.305/.360 AND a rookie pitcher who allowed six runs over four innings in his Major League Debut and avoid losing your entire readership. I could do no wrong!

Juan Rivera, LAD OF | 6%

Usual lefty-mashing Marcus Thames was released yesterday and the Dodgers subsequently replaced him with Rivera. Initially, it appears he will take over that same role, only facing left-handers. This makes sense of course as in his career, he has posted a .357 wOBA against southpaws, but just a .326 mark against righties. Even this season, despite his overall struggles, he has put up a .393 wOBA against lefties, albeit in a small 55 at-bat sample. Obviously, you don’t really want Rivera if he only faces left-handers. However, Tony Gwynn, Jr. is no one’s idea of a starting left-fielder, even given his excellent defense. At age 33, it is certainly in the realm of possibility that Rivera is done. But we cannot forget he hit 25 home runs just two years ago. If he hits well out of the gate, he could easily win more playing time and provide some deep league value.

Kyle Weiland, BOS SP | 4%

This may be the first recommendation that literally throws up zeroes for the rest of the season. That is, it is very possible he does not pitch another inning for the Sox this year. But, with Jon Lester’s status up in the air, and no other clear-cut options, Weiland may stick around for a little while. He posted a strong set of skills at Triple-A this season and has seen his skills improve as he climbed the minor league ladder, which is a great sign. He has induced an above average percentage of grounders and his fastball averaged 93.1 miles per hour during his first outing. Control may be an issue, as it has not been great during his minor league career and he threw just 40.9% of his first pitches for strikes during his debut. At least he has the powerful Sox offense backing him, so he could luck into some wins even if he does have some struggles, assuming he makes it through five of course.

Time to update the ranks! As always, this ranking is more about performance the rest of the way than performance in the bank. On the other hand, this is not just a ZiPs RoS ranking. Human opinion introduces human error, but our minds are plastic and there’s at least the chance we can get ahead of the trends. So let’s try. Oh, and arrows denote a change in tier, not a change in rank.

Everyone’s All-Stars
Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp
Matt Holliday
Andrew McCutchen
Carlos Gonzalez
Justin Upton

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Entering the 2011 season, it was easily the worst of times for two New York Mets’ outfielders. Both Carlos Beltran and Jason Bay entered the season facing similar concerns. Due to injuries, general ineffectiveness, and age both players were considered risky fantasy options entering 2011. Despite the fact that both players entered 2011 dealing with the same issues, their performances up to this point in the season could not be more different. While Bay hasn’t looked the same since a concussion prematurely ended his 2010, Beltran looks reinvigorated as a right fielder. Now that we’ve reached the half way point of the season, let’s take a look at each player’s performance thus far.
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You’ve heard about Howard Bender’s draft. And you’ll hear about Jason Catania’s draft and Jeff Zimmerman’s draft. Because we all got together and decided to pick six, deep league style. Our CI, MI, OF, C, SP and RP all had to come from a pool of players that was owned in less than 10% of Yahoo leagues. Here are my picks and why. In the order I drafted. I had the third pick of four.

Chris Heisey
A disclaimer about deep leagues and waiver wires: One thing you want are live bodies with some upside. It’s the usual caveat. So Heisey has flaws — he’s now struck out in 18.2% of his at-bats in his first 396 plate appearances, so he might have that flaw. Then again, his minor league rates were closer to 20% most years. He could improve in that category. His BABIP is fine (.308) and though his current ISO (.209) would rank high in his minor-league work, it would still fit. And he’s got a .192 ISO so far in the majors. He stole 27 bases against two caught-stealings in High-A, and had very good success rates all along. So he has good speed. And power. And could improve his strikeout rate. And is battling for playing time with a guy with a .245 career batting average and a strikeout rate over 33%. Yes please.

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Maybe it’s just me and the fact that my fantasy teams are being decimated with injuries, but do there seem to be a lot more than usual?  Obviously, when you lose a player for an extended period of time it can be a nightmare trying to find similar production.  But if you’re just losing a guy for a two week stretch and need a temporary stopgap to hold you over, then there’s still help to be found.  Here are a pair of guys that seem to be available in a number of leagues and are likely to help you out on a short term basis. Read the rest of this entry »

The Grady Sizemore that fantasy owners fell in love with — the swift, slugging center fielder with perennial 30-30 potential — is gone. Microfracture surgery on Sizemore’s left knee, as well as a right knee contusion that put him back on the DL in May, has robbed the 28-year-old of his once-plus speed. But Grady’s wheels aren’t the only thing that’s missing in 2011: his previously superb strike-zone judgment is gone, too. Sizemore is doing a convincing Dave Kingman impression, slugging the ball when he makes contact but chasing pitches and punching out plenty in the process.

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Jayson Werth stayed healthy and blossomed into one of the game’s best players in Philadelphia, topping five Wins Above Replacement each season from 2008-2010 while providing patience, power and speed. But no free agent signing generated more debate this past offseason than Washington’s seven-year, $126 million pact with the 32-year-old outfielder.

The controversy surrounding Werth’s deal had to do with its length — few doubted that he would rake at the beginning of his contract, but would he be worth over $20 million per year by the time Stephen Strasburg resumed racking up Ks and Bryce Harper began droppin’ bombs and blowin’ kisses in the majors?

We’re still years away from finding out the answer to that question. But there’s a more immediate concern for owners who dropped an early pick on Werth: he’s not hitting right now. Werth has a .224/.329/.391 line in 2011. Granted, Nationals Park isn’t especially friendly to right-handed hitters, decreasing offense by about three percent compared to a neutral stadium. But Werth’s production falls well short of his pre-season .263/.360/.475 ZiPS projection. Why is Werth stumbling in D.C.? Let’s take a look.

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This stretch of the season is often the toughest for owners. Most of the big breakouts have already happened (hello, Michael Pineda, Alex Avila and Matt Joyce), plenty of the bounceback candidates have proved they can still play (right, Lance Berkman, David Ortiz and Josh Beckett?) and many of the elite prospects have been called up (thanks, Eric Hosmer, Jordan Lyles and Dustin Ackley). That leaves owners who missed out on those players to seek help either via trade or by identifying — and adding — players who have underperformed so far. This late in the game, it’s a trickier decision-making process because all the options come with some ugly pock marks (hence, the underperforming and all), but there are always a few possibilities for second-half surges. Like these three American League outfielders.

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Let’s check in on two outfield situations that might produce a waiver wire prize.

Roger Bernadina, Washington (16% owned in Yahoo)
My preseason favorite for a starting job has meandered his way back into a role for now, but how long will it last? Rick Ankiel could return and push the Shark out of his territory, as improbable as that sounds considering the former pitcher’s sub-.550 OPS. Still, when he returns in early July he should at least have above-average power and a rocket arm in center field, two things that Bernadina probably won’t manage. With the team making its way to respectability, and the fact that Bernadina is under team control for longer, the most likely plan has the Shark retaining his playing time somewhere on the diamond. Laynce Nix won’t keep his batting average looking this useful, or so says his career .247 batting average. Then again, he has a .322 BABIP and a .316 xBABIP based on his mix of batted balls. And he’s always had good power. And while we’re here, we might as well mention that Bernadina’s .256 career batting average and ZiPs RoS is just as pessimistic about his chances to keep producing at this level. And yet, Bernadina’s .344 BABIP is two points lower than his xBABIP. He’s got wheels and is hitting the ball on the ground (2.13 GB/FB ratio). Both outfielders might continue to show better batting averages than they have in their careers. If only one of Nix, Ankiel and Bernadina were right-handed, there might be a platoon to be had. In the end, though, as exciting as this run of competence from the Nationals has been, the team must look to the future. That means more of Shark roaming the outfield.

Lucas Duda, New York NL (0% owned)
Really, this blurb might as well start with Jason Bay and get it over with. Carlos Beltran will miss the occasional game, but if Duda wants to get enough plate appearances to be even deep-league relevant, he’ll need to steal some time from Bay. Lately, there’s been a few days where Terry Collins has given Bay ‘mental health’ days off, but if the expensive Omar Minaya acquisition returns to even 80% Jason Bay levels, Duda may find himself back in the minors shortly. Unfortunately, counting last year, we now have over 600 plate appearances of Bay sporting an HR/FB rate just around five. Hitting a career low in fly balls is not helping matters this year, either. Other than his expensive contract, there’s little reason to believe that he deserves time on a major league corner outfield right now. Which is not to say that Duda necessarily does either. He hasn’t found his power stroke just like Bay. But he’s only put up 65 plate appearances. Given time, he could hit .250+ with above-average power — his ISO has been .295 the last two years in Triple-A — and that’s more than you can say for Bay right now. Duda’s an okay flier in the deepest of leagues.

It wasn’t as if Shin-Soo Choo was really tearing it up for fantasy owners this season anyway, was he?  After back to back 20-20 seasons with a .300 average, the 28 year old Korean-born outfielder ran into a little trouble this year.  He struggled out of the gate in April and was then arrested on DUI charges at the beginning of May.  The apparent shame perpetuated the sub par play and now here in June, after being hit on the hand  by Giants’ starter Jonathan Sanchez, is on the DL with a broken thumb that will require surgery and will be sidelined for a minimum of six weeks. Read the rest of this entry »