A pair of National League outfielders for your pleasure.

Ryan Ludwick (33% owned in Yahoo)
Ludwick is long-rumored for greener pastures, but it’s important not to overvalue the effect a move might have on his value. As a right-hander in PetCo, his home run power is only suppressed 5% according to StatCorner. If he moved to the Braves (-8% PF for HR by RHB), the Pirates (-17%), Rays (-7%), Red Sox (-7%) or Indians (-12%), he wouldn’t receive a boost in that category. The Giants (-1%) and Tigers (+11%) would be surprisingly positive destinations for him in this analysis. Overall, though, you’d think the Red Sox, the most recently rumored to be interested, would make for the best destination. Their park aids right-handed offense 6% overall while PetCo suppresses right-handed wOBA by 8%. A few more doubles would do Ludwick some good. At the plate right now, the current Padre outfielder is hitting more fly balls than he ever has, and showing the worst power. He could easily hit .260 with double-digit home runs in the second half, even if he joins a crowded contender. Other than BABIP (.270 this year, .304 career), most of his peripherals are in line with his career numbers. Sure, the 33-year-old is declining, and that’s a natural part of his three-year decline in HR/FB percentage, but there’s still enough punch there to be fantasy-relevant in deeper leagues. Especially with a tiny boost from change in parks.

Tony Gwynn, Jr. (2% owned in Yahoo)
Yeah, it’s a little strange to recommend a speed-only center fielder without a center field glove playing in a slightly pitcher-friendly park, especially right after his team traded for a veteran that plays his position. That said, Juan Rivera has been in town for a little bit of time by now and it looks like we can predict the playing time situation there. As a lefty, thin Gwynn is in line to play against righties. That works well given the fact that his OPS against righties is 6.4% better than his number against lefties. Lo and behold, the righty Rivera is 12% better against lefties by OPS. Play Gwynn against righties and you get a better walk rate (10.6% vs 6.4%) and ISO (.074 to .051). Both of those peripherals should help feed his batting average and keep it from slipping below neutral territory. Of course, you own him for speed, so it’s also good to see him play right-handers in that regard. He doesn’t have great upside, and you’ll have to manage him every day, but if you have room on your bench and a need for speed, Gwynn is still an option for you.

At an age when most players are chasing a trip to Omaha or cutting their teeth in Low Class-A, Jason Heyward crushed major league pitching in 2010. The pre-season #1 prospect, whose legend grew with each car he dented while going deep in spring training, batted .277/.393/.456. Heyward’s 131 OPS+ as a 20-year-old bested that of Willie Mays and put him in the same company as Ken Griffey Jr. It’s no surprise, then, that there were enormous expectations for the Braves’ right fielder in 2011: the fans projected him to hit above .290 while getting on base nearly 40 percent of the time and slugging north of .500.

Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries. It’s impossible for anyone outside of the Braves’ training room and front office to assess Heyward’s health. But let’s diagnose why Atlanta’s prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season.

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The All-Star break is as good a time as any to update our American League Outfielder Rankings. (Note: That means outfielders who play only in the AL, so please don’t flood the comments with oblivious flabbergastery over the complete and utter disrespect for not including Jay Bruce. For that, go here.) Given the timing, let’s go ahead and call this our second-half ranks. While performances to date do matter, the intent here is to, as Doc Brown might say: “Get a clear perception of humanity (i.e., fantasy performance). Where we’ve been (April, May, June), where we’re going (July, August, September), the pitfalls (Carl Crawford), the possibilities (Curtis Granderson), the perils (Shin-Soo Choo) and the promise (Mike Trout). Perhaps even an answer to that universal question: Where is [insert name here] ranked?”

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While most are taking a little breather from their fantasy baseball teams during the All Star Break, it can’t hurt to scour your waiver wire and see who’s still out there that may help you out for your second half push.  Players coming back from injury are always a good target as well as players recently called back up from the minors.  Here are two for you to consider… Read the rest of this entry »

I have to admit, these posts are a joy. In no other article could you possibly recommend a hitter slashing .243/.305/.360 AND a rookie pitcher who allowed six runs over four innings in his Major League Debut and avoid losing your entire readership. I could do no wrong!

Juan Rivera, LAD OF | 6%

Usual lefty-mashing Marcus Thames was released yesterday and the Dodgers subsequently replaced him with Rivera. Initially, it appears he will take over that same role, only facing left-handers. This makes sense of course as in his career, he has posted a .357 wOBA against southpaws, but just a .326 mark against righties. Even this season, despite his overall struggles, he has put up a .393 wOBA against lefties, albeit in a small 55 at-bat sample. Obviously, you don’t really want Rivera if he only faces left-handers. However, Tony Gwynn, Jr. is no one’s idea of a starting left-fielder, even given his excellent defense. At age 33, it is certainly in the realm of possibility that Rivera is done. But we cannot forget he hit 25 home runs just two years ago. If he hits well out of the gate, he could easily win more playing time and provide some deep league value.

Kyle Weiland, BOS SP | 4%

This may be the first recommendation that literally throws up zeroes for the rest of the season. That is, it is very possible he does not pitch another inning for the Sox this year. But, with Jon Lester’s status up in the air, and no other clear-cut options, Weiland may stick around for a little while. He posted a strong set of skills at Triple-A this season and has seen his skills improve as he climbed the minor league ladder, which is a great sign. He has induced an above average percentage of grounders and his fastball averaged 93.1 miles per hour during his first outing. Control may be an issue, as it has not been great during his minor league career and he threw just 40.9% of his first pitches for strikes during his debut. At least he has the powerful Sox offense backing him, so he could luck into some wins even if he does have some struggles, assuming he makes it through five of course.

Time to update the ranks! As always, this ranking is more about performance the rest of the way than performance in the bank. On the other hand, this is not just a ZiPs RoS ranking. Human opinion introduces human error, but our minds are plastic and there’s at least the chance we can get ahead of the trends. So let’s try. Oh, and arrows denote a change in tier, not a change in rank.

Everyone’s All-Stars
Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp
Matt Holliday
Andrew McCutchen
Carlos Gonzalez
Justin Upton

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Entering the 2011 season, it was easily the worst of times for two New York Mets’ outfielders. Both Carlos Beltran and Jason Bay entered the season facing similar concerns. Due to injuries, general ineffectiveness, and age both players were considered risky fantasy options entering 2011. Despite the fact that both players entered 2011 dealing with the same issues, their performances up to this point in the season could not be more different. While Bay hasn’t looked the same since a concussion prematurely ended his 2010, Beltran looks reinvigorated as a right fielder. Now that we’ve reached the half way point of the season, let’s take a look at each player’s performance thus far.
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You’ve heard about Howard Bender’s draft. And you’ll hear about Jason Catania’s draft and Jeff Zimmerman’s draft. Because we all got together and decided to pick six, deep league style. Our CI, MI, OF, C, SP and RP all had to come from a pool of players that was owned in less than 10% of Yahoo leagues. Here are my picks and why. In the order I drafted. I had the third pick of four.

Chris Heisey
A disclaimer about deep leagues and waiver wires: One thing you want are live bodies with some upside. It’s the usual caveat. So Heisey has flaws — he’s now struck out in 18.2% of his at-bats in his first 396 plate appearances, so he might have that flaw. Then again, his minor league rates were closer to 20% most years. He could improve in that category. His BABIP is fine (.308) and though his current ISO (.209) would rank high in his minor-league work, it would still fit. And he’s got a .192 ISO so far in the majors. He stole 27 bases against two caught-stealings in High-A, and had very good success rates all along. So he has good speed. And power. And could improve his strikeout rate. And is battling for playing time with a guy with a .245 career batting average and a strikeout rate over 33%. Yes please.

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Maybe it’s just me and the fact that my fantasy teams are being decimated with injuries, but do there seem to be a lot more than usual?  Obviously, when you lose a player for an extended period of time it can be a nightmare trying to find similar production.  But if you’re just losing a guy for a two week stretch and need a temporary stopgap to hold you over, then there’s still help to be found.  Here are a pair of guys that seem to be available in a number of leagues and are likely to help you out on a short term basis. Read the rest of this entry »

The Grady Sizemore that fantasy owners fell in love with — the swift, slugging center fielder with perennial 30-30 potential — is gone. Microfracture surgery on Sizemore’s left knee, as well as a right knee contusion that put him back on the DL in May, has robbed the 28-year-old of his once-plus speed. But Grady’s wheels aren’t the only thing that’s missing in 2011: his previously superb strike-zone judgment is gone, too. Sizemore is doing a convincing Dave Kingman impression, slugging the ball when he makes contact but chasing pitches and punching out plenty in the process.

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