As hard as it is to concentrate with our fearless leader’s struggles on our minds, we must soldier on. Today, we’ll take a break from the National League outfield (don’t drop Nate Schierholtz until you know where Carlos Beltran will end up and what the Giants will do to fit him into the gargantuan holes in their lineup, since he could end up with the bigger part of the platoon with Cody Ross) to instead have some fun with the new statistic on our site. Yup, it’s SIERA time.

The thumbnail about SIERA is that creator Matt Swartz found that strikeout rate interacted with a pitcher’s BABIP and HR/FB. He also found that elite ground ball rates lead to better BABIPs. Because of these interactions, some pitchers should be compared to other excellent pitchers in those categories instead of being tied to the league average. We might find some aces that look better with SIERA, for sure, but it’s worth running the list in order to see who SIERA likes best. Another weapon in the fight against the luck dragon. Expect fabulous FIP-SIERA and xFIP-SIERA posts later in the week.

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Young players all around today, three of ’em for your fantasy squad…

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It may have taken four months, and nearly 1,000 plate appearances at AAA, but the Tampa Bay Rays have finally called up Desmond Jennings. For owners in keeper leagues, it’s finally time to rejoice. Owners in year-to-year leagues will now need to decide whether Jennings is worthy of a pickup going forward. Jennings certainly has that top prospect shine — he appeared on Baseball America’s top 100 list the last four seasons — but will he contribute enough to make an impact on fantasy rosters?
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At this very moment, there are but four teams with all three starting outfielders ranking in the Top 40 among outfield WAR. When you’re done guessing — er, trying to guess — click below to find out which teams. (Hint: You might as well just click — you won’t get all four.)

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It’s really time to start looking deeper into your free agent pool these days.  Of course, it looks better when a player is owned in 40% of ESPN leagues, but does that really mean he’s outperforming a guy that may only be owned in 15%?  Not always the case.  It may just mean that fewer people are paying attention and don’t know as much about him to realize that he is the superior fantasy option at this point in time.  Here’s a pair of guys that just might fit that description. Read the rest of this entry »

Another week and another innovation at ottoneu headquarters. Now you can browse any ottoneu league you like, right here. A few recommendations include the FanGraphs Staff League, the original ottoneu league, Justin Merry’s league (for you linear weights players, since he’s the scoring system creator and all), and, yes, the Expert’s League. Use the feature to learn a little more about what you should do in your league.

For example. A little ride over to the commissioner’s team page in the Expert’s League can show you what our group of prognosticators decided Brian McCann was worth ($33). Or how many minor leaguers a seasoned ottoneu player owns (zero in this case). Lastly, since Commissioner Chad Young has his Amateur Hour team in seventh place, it can show you what another ottoneu team trying to decide whether to buy or sell looks like.

It’s an interesting team, you might find when you’re looking at his set lineups page. He’s got J.P. Arencibia and Brian McCann, two very good young catchers, both playing right now. And yet he only has 13 games left to play at the position. Is McCann going to be worth $35 next year? Will someone want Arencibia? This is a clear position of surplus for Young.

His team is not that old, though. Sure, he has Vladimir Guerrero ready to head to the bench for good, and of course no minor leaguers, but he also boasts Eric Hosmer, Hunter Pence, Domonic Brown and Mike Moustakas as position players. But the Vlad injury forces him to play Rajai Davis in the outfield. He could use an outfielder if he’s going to go for it this year.

His pitching is strong. Roy Halladay, Jered Weaver, Jeremy Hellickson, Shaun Marcum and Jair Jurrjens are the headliners, but Julio Teheran and Ryan Dempster make for a good bench. If he goes for it, a $10 Marcum might have great trade value without requiring him to sell his top pitching prospect. If he calls it quits on the year, a $43 Roy Halladay may not be keepable, as much of a machine as the Doc is.

The old adage is that “Nobody cares about your fantasy team.” The irony is that you can learn a lot from looking at other people’s fantasy teams. And before we get too up in arms about Chad’s team, we should go softly. He’s about to return from his honeymoon to discover that Guerrero broke his hand. As if returning from a honeymoon wasn’t difficult enough.

Oh, and the offer still stands! Fill an ottoneu league now, and the entire league is free. Contact ottoneu founder Niv Shah if that sounds interesting to you (on twitter or at help @ ottoneu.com).

A pair of National League outfielders for your pleasure.

Ryan Ludwick (33% owned in Yahoo)
Ludwick is long-rumored for greener pastures, but it’s important not to overvalue the effect a move might have on his value. As a right-hander in PetCo, his home run power is only suppressed 5% according to StatCorner. If he moved to the Braves (-8% PF for HR by RHB), the Pirates (-17%), Rays (-7%), Red Sox (-7%) or Indians (-12%), he wouldn’t receive a boost in that category. The Giants (-1%) and Tigers (+11%) would be surprisingly positive destinations for him in this analysis. Overall, though, you’d think the Red Sox, the most recently rumored to be interested, would make for the best destination. Their park aids right-handed offense 6% overall while PetCo suppresses right-handed wOBA by 8%. A few more doubles would do Ludwick some good. At the plate right now, the current Padre outfielder is hitting more fly balls than he ever has, and showing the worst power. He could easily hit .260 with double-digit home runs in the second half, even if he joins a crowded contender. Other than BABIP (.270 this year, .304 career), most of his peripherals are in line with his career numbers. Sure, the 33-year-old is declining, and that’s a natural part of his three-year decline in HR/FB percentage, but there’s still enough punch there to be fantasy-relevant in deeper leagues. Especially with a tiny boost from change in parks.

Tony Gwynn, Jr. (2% owned in Yahoo)
Yeah, it’s a little strange to recommend a speed-only center fielder without a center field glove playing in a slightly pitcher-friendly park, especially right after his team traded for a veteran that plays his position. That said, Juan Rivera has been in town for a little bit of time by now and it looks like we can predict the playing time situation there. As a lefty, thin Gwynn is in line to play against righties. That works well given the fact that his OPS against righties is 6.4% better than his number against lefties. Lo and behold, the righty Rivera is 12% better against lefties by OPS. Play Gwynn against righties and you get a better walk rate (10.6% vs 6.4%) and ISO (.074 to .051). Both of those peripherals should help feed his batting average and keep it from slipping below neutral territory. Of course, you own him for speed, so it’s also good to see him play right-handers in that regard. He doesn’t have great upside, and you’ll have to manage him every day, but if you have room on your bench and a need for speed, Gwynn is still an option for you.

At an age when most players are chasing a trip to Omaha or cutting their teeth in Low Class-A, Jason Heyward crushed major league pitching in 2010. The pre-season #1 prospect, whose legend grew with each car he dented while going deep in spring training, batted .277/.393/.456. Heyward’s 131 OPS+ as a 20-year-old bested that of Willie Mays and put him in the same company as Ken Griffey Jr. It’s no surprise, then, that there were enormous expectations for the Braves’ right fielder in 2011: the fans projected him to hit above .290 while getting on base nearly 40 percent of the time and slugging north of .500.

Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries. It’s impossible for anyone outside of the Braves’ training room and front office to assess Heyward’s health. But let’s diagnose why Atlanta’s prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season.

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The All-Star break is as good a time as any to update our American League Outfielder Rankings. (Note: That means outfielders who play only in the AL, so please don’t flood the comments with oblivious flabbergastery over the complete and utter disrespect for not including Jay Bruce. For that, go here.) Given the timing, let’s go ahead and call this our second-half ranks. While performances to date do matter, the intent here is to, as Doc Brown might say: “Get a clear perception of humanity (i.e., fantasy performance). Where we’ve been (April, May, June), where we’re going (July, August, September), the pitfalls (Carl Crawford), the possibilities (Curtis Granderson), the perils (Shin-Soo Choo) and the promise (Mike Trout). Perhaps even an answer to that universal question: Where is [insert name here] ranked?”

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While most are taking a little breather from their fantasy baseball teams during the All Star Break, it can’t hurt to scour your waiver wire and see who’s still out there that may help you out for your second half push.  Players coming back from injury are always a good target as well as players recently called back up from the minors.  Here are two for you to consider… Read the rest of this entry »