Found the light switch. In the zone. In a groove. Dialed. Signed a deal with the Devil.

Call it what you want, but after Mike Carp’s sizzling finish to 2011, fantasy managers want to know just who the hell this guy is who was supposed to be simply “organizational depth” for a fledgling franchise.

The 2011 Seattle Mariners, buoyed largely by some fantastic starting pitching, hung around in the AL West race long enough to let Mike Carp bludgeon AAA pitching until the organization couldn’t not call him up. So they did. And he stunk. He stunk badly. Like .200/.333/.257 with no home runs and 14 strikeouts over 15 games bad. And then they couldn’t not send him back down – which they did on July 3rd.

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Bust. Injury-prone. Waste of money. Entering the 2011 season, Alex Gordon was burdened by all of these labels. The Nebraska Cornhusker stud, a Golden Spikes Award winner, number two pick in the ’05 draft and career .321/.438/.578 hitter in the minors, struggled with quadriceps, hip and thumb injuries early in his MLB career and batted just .244/.328/.405 from 2007 to 2010. Moved off third base in deference to Kansas City’s new hot-shot hot corner prospect, Mike Moustakas, Gordon was an afterthought fighting to prove he was still worthy of being in, much less anchoring, a big league lineup.

That all changed during his age-27 season. Gordon stayed healthy while living up to his minor league dossier and former #2 overall prospect status from Baseball America, swatting pitchers for a .303/.367/.502 line in 690 plate appearances. His offensive surge during a season in which run-scoring once again declined meant that his bat was 41 percent better than average (141 wRC+), compared to seven percent worse than average from ’07 to ’10.

The question now, of course, is whether Gordon is here to stay as a .300+ hitter and all-around offensive threat. Was his torrid 2011 a sign of things to come as he’s in what are typically a hitter’s peak seasons, or will he be overvalued in 2012 by euphoric owners who overlook warning signs that his sudden turnaround was too good to be true? The truth likely lies somewhere between those two extremes — Gordon did indeed make progress at the plate, but expecting him to replicate his 2011 season would be a good way to end up disappointed in 2012.

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With apparent savior/curse-ender Theo Epstein leading the new regime on the North Side and a list of available players like Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes and C.J. Wilson seeking new homes, it was just a matter of time before the Cubs made a big splash in the free agent market.  While we still wait for that giant cannonball into the deep end, the Cubbies did atleast dive into the pool Wednesday when they inked outfielder David DeJesus to a two year, $10M deal.  After a brief stop in Oakland and that cavernous hole they call a ballpark, DeJesus gets to now call the friendly confines of Wrigley Field home and thankfully becomes fantasy relevant once again.

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Lance Berkman came out nowhere last year. 35 years old and coming off a career-low in home runs, he looked like toast. When the Cardinals signed the player some call “Fat Elvis” to play in the outfield for the first time since 2007, it seemed like a bust. Some of us even said so.

But then the magic happened. Could lightning hit twice? Could this happen again?

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Two weeks ago I followed up on Chris Cwik’s look at several busts from the past season with some more names. Now it is time to look at the opposite side of the coin, those supposed duds who turned out to be studs. In the studs to duds article, I explained why you might want to consider trading for each particular player. This time I will dive into why it may be prudent to trade away the player in question. Of course, I will have to ignore the cost to keep the player since every league has different rules. So think of this section as more of a handful of reasons why the player will be overvalued.

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It’s been a rough last couple of seasons for Grady Sizemore. After accumulating 27.4 WAR from 2005-2008 — making him the fourth most valuable position player in the league over that same period — injuries have crippled the superstar outfielder. Despite his recent struggles, the Cleveland Indians have once again enlisted Sizemore’s services for the 2012 season. It’s been quite a while since Sizemore made an impact on fantasy teams. Should fantasy owners expect more of the same in 2012?

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Two National League outfielders didn’t quite make the final keeper tier, and they’re likely to be strong bounce-back players next year with statistics that would put them in the fourth or fifth tier. Why didn’t I put Andre Ethier and Jayson Werth in those keeper tiers if that’s the case?

It has more to do with perception and relative value, or the ins and outs of keeper leagues, than it does with those actual players.

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Last winter, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth both hit the free agent market, signed with East division rivals and received lavish seven-year deals securing them enough cash to make like Scrooge McDuck and dive into their own personal swimming pools filled with gold coins. Crawford got $142 million to trek from Tampa Bay to Boston, and Werth left Philly for Washington for a cool $126 million. Crawford’s average draft position in ESPN leagues entering 2011 was fourth overall, and Werth’s ADP was 47. Both were prime picks expected to anchor fantasy lineups.

Unfortunately, both landed in their new digs with a Peter Griffin-like thud. Crawford posted the lowest batting average (.255) and OBP (.289) marks of his career while stealing just 18 bases, nearly 30 bags fewer than he nabbed with the Rays in 2010. Werth hit .232 and slugged .389, popping a disappointing 20 home runs.

Suffice it to say, neither will be drafted as high in 2012. But which is the better bet to bounce back? Let’s take a closer look at pros and cons of each high-price fly catcher.

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We’ve looked at four tiers worth of National League Outfield Keepers. That’s 13 dudes, or at least one keeper per team in a 12-team NL-only. If you’re in a traditional keeper league — one in which you keep fewer than eight players — then we’ve probably come to the end of your more attractive keepers. So many of the remaining options are buy-low guys better acquired at a draft or auction, or they are solid performers with real flaws that don’t figure to go away. Or they are older players that you are just keeping because nobody will buy them from you.

But let’s look at the best of the rest, shan’t we?

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It’s been less than  a month since the Twins fired Bill Smith and replaced him with new GM Terry Ryan and after just two quick moves in free agency, the Twins roster looks to be a taking a different shape for 2012.  The signing of Jamey Carroll and subsequent announcement of him as the team’s new starting shortstop put the incumbent middle infielders on official notice while the signing of Ryan Doumit sheds some light on the club’s confidence in DL regulars Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau and possible departure of other free agents.  We’ve already had Dan Wade cover Carroll and the infield and Chris Cwik has given his thoughts on Doumit’s situation, but how about the team beyond?  What does this mean for Mauer and Morneau?  Does Doumit’s signing put an official end to Michael Cuddyer’s and Jason Kubel’s tenure in Minnesota?  And finally, what does all of this mean for fantasy owners?

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