Well, I’m back for another year in the Fangraphs Staff II Ottoneu league. This’ll be year six, but I’m still looking to regain the magic that allowed me to finish third back in the first season, when I was leading heading into the final stretch before fading due to innings limits.

Here’s how I’ve finished in the meantime:

2012 – third (of 12)
2013 – sixth
2014 – 10th
2015 – fourth
2016 – ninth

When we started out, I had a weird mix of good players, prospects and a few guys who put together really nice seasons — like Jason Kubel and Josh Willingham. I’ve had enough of those prospects pan out to have a really nice base for a good team moving forward, but I haven’t been able to quite seal the deal.

I thought my team was just a couple closers away from being very good last season, so I spent big money on Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel. It didn’t so much pan out. A.J. Pollock got hurt and missed a huge chunk of the season, and even some of the smaller pieces I added completely fell flat and were no help at all — like Eduardo Escobar, Eddie Rosario and Byungho Park. It’s not that I had huge expectations for any of those guys, but Escobar has a lot of position flexibility and I was hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with one of the other two. I know Rosario has terrible plate discipline, but he’s got some pop and a good hit tool. It just didn’t work out. Similarly, Park has a ton of swing and miss in his profile, but at least for a while there his power made him useful. Read the rest of this entry »

Last year I posted an article summarizing the keeper results for all ottoneu FanGraphs points leagues, and now that the ottoneu keeper deadline has come and gone once again I am back with an update.

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Today’s the day. Your 2017 ottoneu keeper rosters are due prior to midnight tonight. All that advice to put off cutting your extraneous players can be ignored. Shed the bloat and corruption from your roster. See ya $35 Chris Davis. Didn’t find a taker for your $20 David Ortiz? Well, I’m not surprised. Goodbye forever Big Papi.

I’m here to offer some last minute advice as you make your decisions. Let’s talk about trade options and those oh-so-tricky borderline keepers. For more late breaking advice, check out the ottoneu strategy page.

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The concept of surplus is never far from my mind. Last week I had an article detailing surplus and inflation, and how the two are correlated. I created a tool (the ottoneu Surplus Calculator) to analyze league and team keeper quality through the lens of surplus. I also posted a retrospective analysis on the official ottoneu community detailing how well keeper surplus predicts final standings (spoiler alert- pretty well, considering the analysis doesn’t include auction results or in season management). Today, I wanted to take a look at some data relating to how much surplus the top team in each FanGraphs points ottoneu league has.

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If you’ve played ottoneu for any amount of time, you are likely aware of the impact that platoons have on the game. The large rosters are perfect for platooning, and nearly every team in each league will implement it in some form. Most owners are hyper-efficient at this, and could probably tell you which 5 outfielders they plan to use against against right or left handed starting pitching. The goal of platooning, at it’s core, is to boost your points per game production. This typically could lead into a debate of how many roster spots you should devote to platoons, and if you can effectively meet game caps while platooning. This could be debated forever and, if you play ottoneu, you are probably well acclimated to both sides of the debate. However, today I want to take a slightly different approach.

Intuitively, we know that lineup position impacts fantasy production. For example, players who hit at the top of the lineup accrue more plate appearances, and more plate appearances lead to higher volume on counting stats, solely based on where they are slotted in the lineup. With the help of the Fangraphs Split Leaderboards and Baseball Reference seasonal splits, we can take this a little bit further to see the impact.

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Last year around the cut deadline, I took it upon myself to lead the charge that you’re keeping too many players on your ottoneu team. With the general premise that, despite our best efforts, leagues are heading into their annual auctions with less than optimal keeping habits.

This was not meant as some form of tell all. Certainly it’s reasonable to think that teams should keep some star prospects, or a slightly overpaid Mike Trout if they think they can trade him. However, with the keeper deadline a week and a half away, I want to take some time to update this study for completeness and also update some potential shortcomings.  Read the rest of this entry »

The ottoneu keeper/cut deadline is less than two weeks away, and the ottoneu communities (official and unofficial) are buzzing with discussions about the keep/cut line of specific players and general keeper strategy. I’ve noticed some confusion regarding the definitions and implications of surplus and inflation as it relates to keeper decisions, so I’m here to explain as best as I can.

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In ottoneu, most owners will implement some form of platoon among their outfield spots. While platooning in fantasy baseball is hardly sage advice, ottoneu is a little bit different in that the format specifically lends itself to platooning more than other fantasy platforms. First, you have 40 roster spots. Second, you have 5 OF spots and a 810 game cap at the position. Third, it’s a point format. Because of the 810 cap, you almost need to start a full slate of OF in nearly every game you can, as scheduled off days can make it very difficult to meet the 162 game cap at each of the 5 outfield spots. On top of that, the roster, because of it’s size, allows you to stash prospects or players you plan to use only in specific situations. However, you want to make sure you don’t depend on them too heavily, as scheduling can easily leave you below the cap.

Granted, if you’ve played ottoneu for any amount of time, you already know this. You know that platooning can be an extremely effective strategy. You probably know that strong side platoons are really what you want to acquire (more plate appearances) and you probably have a good idea of a couple names who fit this bill. You are looking for hitters who are likely to get 400+ plate appearance in their platoon role, so as not to be left missing starts with regularity. Today, I want to look at 3 (it’s a new year and I’m feeling generous) players who fit the bill of effective RHP mashers, but at varying costs.

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In Ottoneu, the top tier of 1B usually cost a pretty penny. Whether it’s Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, or Anthony Rizzo – the clear top tier will likely cost $40 or more in FGpt leagues for 2017, and I would not be surprised if any of these 4 clear $50. Maybe you really like Freddie Freeman and want to add him to the mix. It’s certainly defensible given Freeman’s ridiculous 2016. However, after that group things get a little more congested. Edwin Encarnacion is another name who will likely come up. He has helped round out the upper echelon of 1B for the past few seasons, but projections have him taking a slight step back. Either way, you will probably be left pushing $30 for the likes of E5 come march. So what do you do when you are left on the outside looking in a as the top 1B come off the board? Today I want to look at two options who can help if roster construction leaves you pinching pennies at 1B.

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It’s always been amusing to me that the calendar flipping over from one year to the next has been an impetus for people to dedicate themselves to life changes and betterment goals. The start of a new year is a line in the sand that we sometimes draw to say “This year will be different!”. With that as my inspiration, I’d like to share a handful of resolutions I’m making for the 2017 season of ottoneu:

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