There are a few exciting names up today. You’ve got your Maikel Franco in Philly, your Joc Pederson in Los Angeles and your Daniel Norris in Toronto. They’ve been called up to the bigs! But, due to innings limits on young arms, and roster crunches on teams now as much as 50% larger, it’s fair to ask. Will any of these youngsters play regularly?
Hoping you all had a wonderful Labor Day, and ideally an extended weekend, as we leave August behind and say hello to September here at the Bullpen Report…
• Steve Cishek threw a perfect ninth inning for his 32nd save of the year today. Cishek struggled a bit/had some poor batted ball luck in August but he’s put up zeroes in his last three outings and his job certainly remains safe on the Marlins. Cishek received the save opportunity against the Mets after Carlos Torres and Jeurys Familia struggled in relief, giving Miami the lead. Familia is still first in line for saves behind Mejia, who hasn’t been Mr. Sturdy all season but still has a hold on the job.
• Up 4-3 heading into the ninth, Jonathan Papelbon was called on for the save tonight and he converted it for his 33rd of the year. However, of more interest as this point is setup man Ken Giles, who struck out three in a perfect frame while earning a win in the process. On the year Giles has 47 strikeouts in 32.2 innings pitched with a 1.38/1.48/2.00 ERA/FIP/xFIP. Regardless if Papelbon remains in Philadelphia this year and next, Giles is worth owning and he’s certainly worth noting for next year as he’ll be one of the top non-save relievers in the league who could even see some saves if a few things shake out in his favor.
• Jenrry Mejia has battled various ailments and some sub par performances recently, but he threw a scoreless inning tonight allowing one hit and recording a strikeout for his 19th save of the year. There has been some chatter about Mejia being shutdown at some point this season, and it’s not completely misguided given his injury history and his hernia that will require offseason surgery, but nothing has come from the Mets camp so I’d continue to expect Mejia to close from here on out. Of course, with that said Jeurys Familia remains a necessary handicap for Mejia owners.
• Nothing comes easy for Joe Nathan these days but he was able the throw a perfect ninth tonight for his 28th save. Joakim Soria isn’t due back immediately but he should return soon from his oblique injury and when he returns, Nathan will have to have a few more outings like tonight to avoid losing his hold on the ninth inning.
• No save situation for the Royals, but Wade Davis got his seventh win and with an ERA well under one (0.78) and 86 strikeouts, Davis is making the James Shields trade somewhat palatable right now for Royals fans. Davis was able to get the win because Glen Perkins blew the save for the Twins in the ninth, his fifth of the season after a two-run homer from Alex Gordon.
• Rough night for Casey Janssen as he allowed four runs against the Red Sox. He actually threw a scoreless 10th inning but fell apart in the top of the 11th. Janssen had a 1.23 ERA in 22 innings over the first half of the season but since then has been very hittable. In 14.2 innings in the second half thus far, Janssen has allowed 20 hits and 14 runs. I wouldn’t say his job is in danger over the final month for the Jays, but if his struggles persist, the Jays could look to shut his season down given his injury history as well.
• Quick Hits: Mark Melancon notched his 23rd save for the Pirates tonight, putting up zeros against the Cardinals. Zach Britton threw a perfect ninth for his 28th save lowering his ERA under two to 1.98. Hector Rondon recorded save number 22 for the Cubs and overall has had a nice season for them. With the young cavalry coming for the Cubs and the potential for them to open up their wallets this offseason, Rondon should be a solid closing option again next year with a likely more formidable team around him. There have been some Chad Qualls trade rumors floating around, but right now he’s still on the Astros and got his 15th save for them this evening against the A’s, after Luke Gregerson blew the lead in the eighth.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
• Unfortunately for Sean Doolittle owners, he was recently placed on the DL with an “intercostal strain.” Dan Otero, who had recently been demoted to AAA, has been recalled to Oakland to replace Doolittle. According to Susan Slusser, Eric O’Flaherty is likely to fill in as closer (at first), becoming a must own in all fantasy leagues. As of this writing, O’Flaherty was warming up to pitch in the ninth inning with a save situation, a promising sign for teams looking for saves. We’ll update the grid as we get more information but for now it seems like O’Flaherty in the lead with Luke Gregerson and Otero setting up. Ryan Cook is also worth a look as he could get some saves as well, but it seems like Melvin wants to keep Gregerson and Otero in their familiar setup roles. It’s worth noting that O’Flaherty is a lefty but that didn’t seem to affect Melvin’s decision to use Doolittle as closer and in 189.2 career innings against righties O’Flaherty has a .306 wOBA against, so it’s not as if opposite handed hitters feast off of him.
Apologies for a more abbreviated Report tonight but I’ll be sure to hit the comment section hard throughout the day tomorrow.
• Trevor Rosenthal blew his fifth save late last night, continuing some of his recent struggles. Pat Neshek has had an incredible season thus far and is worth owning regardless of how well Rosie is pitching but he’s certainly more of a must add considering Rosenthal has allowed earned runs in his last three outings. However, Mike Matheny is still behind Rosie and it’s worth putting his struggles in some context. From July 8th to August 13th, Rosenthal allowed only two earned runs in 14.1 innings pitched with a 19/4 K/BB and since then has walked 6 batters, allowing four earned runs in 2.1 innings pitched. If Rosenthal was a starter we would chalk it up to a bad outing, but as a closer it carries more meaning, often more than is deserved.
• Jenrry Mejia’s woes continued in today’s game against the Cubs. Mejia entered in the ninth inning with the Mets down 2-1 and allowed two runs off of a Javier Baez homer. Mejia has dealt with a calf issue previously and will need surgery on a hernia in the offseason and it’s clearly affected his performance of late. As of this writing, Terry Collins hasn’t said anything about Mejia’s role moving forward but Jeurys Familia should be owned in all league’s, check your wire immediately. It’s also worth noting that with knowledge of all these ailments, Terry Collins had Mejia pitch the fourth time in five games, probably not the smartest decision by his manager. A few weeks ago I felt safe assuming Mejia as the Mets closer on opening day 2015 but there is a real chance Familia takes the role this year, muddling Mejia’s chances next year along with Bobby Parnell who should be back from TJ surgery. Also of note, Vic Black recorded two outs in today’s game, lowering his ERA to 2.01. Although he profiles as a potential closer, he’s still behind Familia in the pecking order but that may be the best for his future health on the Mets.
• Steve Cishek had the night off and the Marlins went with Bryan Morris to start the ninth inning with a three run lead. After recording two outs and allowing two base runners, Mike Dunn came on for the one out save against the lefty Matt Adams. As we noted last night Cishek’s job is still safe but today’s outing gives us some insight into the pecking order behind him. I’m in agreement with the grid as Morris and A.J. Ramos set the table for Cishek. However, as a solid LOOGY, Dunn could steal a save opportunity or two when a tough lefty arises.
• Matt Lindstrom will be activated tomorrow and while he may see some time in the ninth inning before the year is over, I wouldn’t drop Jacob Petricka just yet. Petricka isn’t as good as his ERA suggests (2.02) but he’s done well enough to merit holding the job over a just off the DL Lindstrom. If you really need saves then take a flier on Lindstrom but he only has value if he’s seeing the ninth inning as he doesn’t have swing and miss stuff and is unlikely to even help your ratios. However, those in holds leagues could take a more serious look, as Lindstrom should find his way into some later, higher leverage innings, even if it’s not in the ninth.
• Carlos Carrasco’s move to the bullpen brought some intrigue to see what he could do handling one or two inning workloads. Tonight he was extended a bit throwing four innings and allowing three runs, but he still struck out five batters while issuing just one walk. Carrasco has an above average strikeout rate and an even more impressive swinging strike % (11.6%) indicating he has actual bat missing ability. He won’t make much noise this year and Cody Allen has a tight grasp on the closing gig in Cleveland, but Carrasco is someone to eye next year as he may be called on to pitch higher leverage innings. As a reliever, Carrasco’s allowed only 11 runs in 43 innings this season. Surprisingly his K-rate has declined in the relief role but I’d toss that up to small sampling as he has legitimate swing and miss stuff. It’s likely that Carraso has found a new permanent home in the bullpen and he can certainly help your ratios, strikeouts and even get a hold or two.
• There wasn’t a save situation tonight with a four run lead in the ninth inning but A.J. Ramos got the final two outs of the seventh with Bryan Morris pitching a perfect eighth. That seems to be the standard operating procedure for the Marlins at the end of games these days, with Morris and Ramos handing it off to Cishek. Over the last couple of seasons, Steve Cishek’s name has either been involved in trade rumors or as a closer who could lose his job. Sadly, to speculative fantasy baseball owners, neither of those has come to fruition. The Marlins were buyers at the deadline and nothing should really change next year so expect a lot of Ramos – Morris – Cishek moving forward in Miami.
• Jonathan Papelbon struck out the side in a tie game in the ninth inning tonight, albeit while also issuing two walks. Papelbon doesn’t serve a large purpose on a team in the Phillies situation, so he’s clearly on the table in trades up until the waiver deadline on August 31st. Such a trade might not be likely but each performance will be crucial for his trade value.
• There was a minor transaction today as the Nationals picked up lefty Matt Thornton from the Yankees after placing a claim on him. Thornton’s 2.55 ERA is nice but his 0.0% HR/FB suggests some good fortune and his 3.90 xFIP isn’t too appealing. Back in the day Thornton threw gas from the left side, always striking out more than a batter an inning. In recent years, Thornton is still throwing gas from the left side but without the same swing and miss results. In fact, over the last three years his SwStr% have all been below average. Thornton likely won’t cost the Nationals anything to upgrade their lefty options in the pen, but he won’t move the needle much for the Nats or your fantasy team. As far as the Yankees are concerned, look for David Huff to see more higher leverage action against lefties. Huff has allowed only 5 ER in 23 innings for the Yankees this year and while he isn’t too fantasy relevant (AKA not at all) he is the primary left handed reliever for the Yankees moving forward.
• Quick Hits: No save situation but the Orioles went with Tommy Hunter and Andrew Miller in the seventh and eighth innings tonight, a trend that should continue in Baltimore. Francisco Rodriguez closed his 33rd door of the year. K-Rod’s had a fine year but he was actually quite terrible in July, posting a 6.48 ERA and .381 wOBA against. He’s earned enough leash where he will save games all year but I wouldn’t look to at his seasonal ERA and expect an ERA around or under 3.00 from here on out.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]