Today I will look at a few players on the DL owned in less than 60% of all leagues.

Luke Scott (22% ESPN, 18% Yahoo) and Vladimir Guerrero (44% ESPN, 57% Yahoo) – The DH situation in Baltimore will be in flux for the next couple weeks. First, Luke Scott is to come off the DL tomorrow, and with Vlad on the DL, he looks to move into Baltimore’s DH spot. Luke has had mixed results in 2011. He is hitting HRs (and getting the Runs and RBIs that go with them) with 9 so far in just over 233 PA. The problem is that in those 233 PA he has hit only 0.233 and continues to have no speed (11 career SB). He does give an owner the flexibility of being qualified at 1B and OF which Vlad does not. He looks to be a nice pick up for the next couple weeks since he is to be the everyday DH.

The problem is that he will probably lose his DH spot once Vlad returns and will move into a LF platoon with Pie and Reimold. While Vlad has not hit as many home runs (7) as Scott so far this season, his 0.279 AVG is more appealing. Scott looks to be a nice replacement for Vlad owners, but he doesn’t look to have a permanent place in the Orioles lineup.

John Danks (33% ESPN, 46% Yahoo) – Danks is scheduled to return from DL on Wednesday to make his first start since Jun 25. He was having an OK season before he went on the DL. His 3-8 record is not great (it was 0-8 at one point), but he has been pitching a better than it shows. He has a 4.21 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and a 2.32 K/BB. Those stats are decent enough for a starter in deep or AL only leagues.

Stephen Strasburg (1% ESPN, 13% Yahoo) – Recent reports from the Nationals state that Strasburg may be back in September for a few starts. He may be a nice replacement for a pitcher that may be shutdown late in the season. If you have room on the DL, it might be a good time to pick him up and see if he will pitch in the majors this season.

Brett Anderson (36% ESPN, 48% Yahoo) – Stick a fork in him and send him to the WW. TJS has him out for this season and I see very little reason to have him as a keeper for next season. An owner might as well keep a player that plans to start the season off the DL.

This past weekend, two pitchers for the A’s, Rich Harden and Brandon McCarthy, returned to the team after stints on the DL. Here is a look at how each pitcher performed and what to expect from them over the rest of the season.

Rich Harden (9.4% ESPN, 11% Yahoo) – Rich made his 2011 debut on Saturday by striking out 6 and not walking anyone in 6 IP.

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Brandon Webb (shoulder): Brandon made his 4th AA rehab start of the season last Friday and it wasn’t good:

2/3 an inning, 4 ER, 4 hits, 1 K, 1 BB.

The rest of his AA starts haven’t been much better.

4 games, 9.75 ERA, 6 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 over 12 innings.

I still think there some possible value left in Brandon and he may be worth keeping in a DL spot for a while longer. First, his ERA is bloated from a 0.444 BABIP and 58% LOB%. Currently his FIP is at 4.75, while not great, it is half of his ERA. Second, his fastball speed has been between 85 to 87 MPH in his starts so far. This value may seem low, but his average speed was around 88 MPH during his better MLB seasons. While the speed is down a bit, it is not that far off his previous values.

There is no reason to totally give on him over 12 innings, but I would be keeping track of his progress and see if he can begin to put it together.

Phil Hughes (shoulder): Phil’s ownership rate has crept up as he is getting closer to coming off the DL. In his first rehab start his fastball speed topped out at 95MPH. In his second start, it was a little slower topping out at 93 MPH and was in the range of 91 to 93 MPH. Even though he threw a little slower the second time out, his fastball speed is up ~3 MPH from his starts earlier this season. His fastball seems effective since he has gotten 10 minor leaguers to strike out in 7.2 IP.

He should be continue to be held in a DL spot and his minor league outings monitored.

Johan Santana (shoulder): It is looking more and more likely that Johan will pitch just a few starts, if at all, in 2011. His return time line has been moved back and with the Mets out of contention, there is no real reason to rush him back.

Bartolo Colon (hamstring): Tonight (Monday), Bartolo will pitch a simulated game to see how healed his hamstring is right now. After the outing, the Yankees will then have a better idea of a return timeline.

Jonathan Broxton (shoulder): Jonathan was supposed to join the Dodgers soon, but he felt stiffness in his shoulder on Saturday. It looks like his return will be put on hold. He was supposed to return to the Dodger’s closer role, but not for now.

It wasn’t as if Shin-Soo Choo was really tearing it up for fantasy owners this season anyway, was he?  After back to back 20-20 seasons with a .300 average, the 28 year old Korean-born outfielder ran into a little trouble this year.  He struggled out of the gate in April and was then arrested on DUI charges at the beginning of May.  The apparent shame perpetuated the sub par play and now here in June, after being hit on the hand  by Giants’ starter Jonathan Sanchez, is on the DL with a broken thumb that will require surgery and will be sidelined for a minimum of six weeks. Read the rest of this entry »

When Albert Pujols fractured his wrist this last weekend, fantasy owners scrambled to find a replacement for him. Besides finding a replacement, owners may be wondering what type of production they should expect from him once he returns later this season. Also, owners may want to know what to expect from him on draft day next season. The following is a quick look at players that went on the DL and their production level before and after their wrist injury.

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When a hitter comes back from the DL our natural inclination is to compare their current performance to their previous performance to see if their talent level has changed. A small sample size of data is used in this exercise, which makes it tough to figure out how much to weigh the new data. To help with this problem, I have created a spreadsheet to take a small sample of a hitter’s stats and estimate their ability.

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Grady Sizemore (knee) – Grady has accumulated 117 plate appearance so far this season with generally decent results. The 28 year old has been on the DL twice (knee injuries) and has missed 154 games since May 19th 2010. This season he has been productive with a 0.266/0.316/0.569 triple slash line. Since returning from the 2nd stint on the DL, he has performed worse (0.226/0.273/0.355) than before (0.282/0.333/0.641).

Grady has always been a productive hitter, but this season the fantasy production is coming from an increase in power, not from getting on and stealing bases. His 0.560 SLG and 0.294 ISO are career highs. Most of the extra power is coming from home runs. He is hitting more fly balls (50%) than any time in his career to go along with another career high 16% HR/FB ratio. His fly ball distance has increase by about 30 feet from 2 years ago. Also, the increase in power can be seen since he has hit more doubles (14) than singles (9) this year.

His desire to hit the long ball has affected his OBP (not this avg this season). He is swinging at more pitches (49% in 2011 vs 43% for his career) and making less contact (72% in 2011 vs 82% for his career) this year. The free swinging nature has led to a 4% walk rate (career low) and a 30% strike out rate (career high). The lack of walks has led to a 0.316 OBP which is 36 points below his career numbers.

Finally, the production from his speed looks to be dead. 0 stolen bases. 1 caught stealing. Out of the 14 doubles he has hit, he as not legged one out for a triple. His 2011 speed score of 2.8 groups him with the catching trio of Kurt Suzuki, Miguel Olivo, and Yadier Molina. His bum knee has drained his speed, for now, and I would not count on any substantial SB in the future.

The Indians seemed to have noticed the lack of speed. After coming off the DL the first time, he only batted in the lead off spot. Since returning from his second trip, he has batted in the 4th or 5th spots in the lineup. Since he is no longer leading off and looks to be protecting others in the lineup, I would expect to see a drop in the Runs score, but an increase RBIs.

Sizemore looks for now to be a different player since he has come back from the DL. It is not a bad change, unless you drafted him looking for a higher OBP and some steals. Right now he has the chance to improve with better speed and strike zone judgment -or- decline because of a lose the power. No one really has a clue (except David Allen and he won’t share his crystal ball). Owners can feel free to hold onto and see what the future holds for the new Grady Sizemore.

Chase Utley – Utley was one of my buy low picks for the season, but then he injured his right knee. He returned from the DL on May 23 and has an 37 PA so far (small sample size issues with all this data).

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Here is a look at a few player owned in under 50% of all leagues in ESPN on the DL soon and could make an impact, good and bad, on your fantasy team.

Brandon Webb (Shoulder) 4.3% owned – Today, Brandon is making a rehab in AA. I usually advise picking up a player if you happen to have an open slot DL. In Brandon’s case, don’t waste one. There are better players available on the DL right now that should be picked up. The big concern with Brandon is his fastball, more specifically, a lack of one. He previously threw a fastball around 88 MPH. Current reports put Brandon’s fastball at 4 MPH slower or about 84 MPH. Even if he gets his curve ball back to where it was previously, a 84 MPH fast ball will probably not cut it in the majors.

Brandon McCarthy (Shoulder) 2.7% owned – Brandon has had shoulder problems in the past. He said he used to pitch through the discomfort he felt in his shoulder. He decided not to pitch through the pain this time and hopes to return sooner from the DL. His time table for returning has not been set yet, but before going on the DL, he was putting up some decent numbers. He had a K/BB of 3.7 and an ERA 3.57. His ERA could have actually been a little inflated since he had a FIP of 2.42 and a slightly high BABIP of 0.319. He could be a nice addition to a pitching staff when he returns. An owner should wait until he is for sure coming back and throwing before picking him up.

Travis Hafner (oblique) 23.8% owned – He is being dropped quite a bit in leagues. I know he only has DH intelligibility and at least 3 weeks from returning, but he is hitting 0.345 with 5 home runs. He definitely belongs on some owner’s DL or bench. A no brainer.

Derrek Lee (Oblique) 33.4% owned – Derrek begins baseball activities today and is able to come off the DL on Wednesday. It may be a few days later as he may need a little more rehab. He is not the ideal 1B candidate, but he has hitting for some power this season (4 home runs). I fully expect him to be owned in AL only and most deeper leagues due to a lack of options. In shallower leagues, I would expect there to be better players available than this declining vet when he returns.

Every year a dozen or so MLB pitchers need to have TJS (Tommy John surgery) done on their elbows. Today I will look at 3 of those pitchers (Joe Nathan, Jordan Zimmermann and Edinson Volquez) that had the surgery in 2009 or 2010 with 2011 being their first full season back. Also, I will look at some general TJS information and how it applies to the 3 pitchers.

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