Odorizzi and de la Rosa: 2012 Debuts
After looking at Chris Carpenter’s 2012 debut yesterday, today I will look at two other pitchers that made their 2012 debuts this past week, Jake Odorizzi and Jorge de la Rosa
Archive for Injuries
Chris Carpenter: 2012 Debut
Chris Carpenter debuted on Friday night. He came away with decent results, 5 IP, 2 Runs allowed, 0 HR. Chris is usually a fantasy workhorse, but shoulder surgery has all but eliminated his 2012 season. He looks to have limited value as a streaming option this next week and has some question marks to be answered for 2013.
The big red flag that is waving over him is the drop in velocity for all his pitches. His sinker, which he threw 31 times, is down about 3 MPH from 2010 and 2011.
An Unofficial September DL List
In September, teams are able to bring up any player to the majors that is on the 40 man roster. When a player gets hurt, a team has no incentive to put the player on the DL to open up a spot. Because teams are ignoring the DL, it is hard knowing exactly which players are not going to play and for how long.
The most important aspect that fantasy owners face is that the non-playing, hurt players can’t be moved to a DL slot without the DL designation. Teams in keeper leagues will be forced to keep these players on their active roster therefore denying an extra usable bench player on a fantasy roster.
Carpenter and Hammel: Pitchers on the Mend
Chris Carpenter – Carpenter has begun throwing a few pitches to see if he can possibly make a start before the end of the season. He has a small chance of returning after being out for the entire season.
The Cardinal hurler had a great 2011 season and helped the Cardinals win the World Series. He began the season with shoulder pain and eventually had surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (I am not sure exactly what it is, but it sounds bad) on July 19th. Initially, it was reported that he was not going to return this season, but signs are starting to point to a return.
Brandon Morrow: Back for the Final Month
On Saturday, Brandon Morrow made his return to the Blue Jays rotation. He allowed 4 runs (2 earned) to go with 7 Ks and 1 BB over 4 2/3 innings. It was Morrow’s first start since June 11th when he strained his left oblique. All signs are positive and I see only a couple of possible future problems for him.
Morrow was having a good season before landing on the DL, but it is a little tough to gauge his true talent level. He has a near 3 ERA which is a career best for him (4.37 average for his previous seasons). His strikeout rate is down to a career low of 8 K/9. The drop in strikeouts is offset by his BB/9 going down to 2.7, which is also a career low.
Longoria Returns
Last night, Evan Longoria returned to the Rays after missing 85 games with a torn hamstring. He was the DH and went 1 for 3 with an RBI. For some fantasy owners his return may be too late to really help them (#raiseshand). For others, he may provide a much needed boost. Besides being one of the top 3B options, his return has implications on other Tampa Bay players.
Lance Berkman’s Knee & Allen Craig
Knee problems are nothing new for Lance Berkman. They’ve been barking at him for nearly a decade now and have cost him all but 22 of his team’s 98 games this season. He took a Clayton Kershaw slider to the right knee — the same one he had surgery on in May — on Tuesday night and has been out of the starting lineup since. Puma did work a pinch-walk last night and was immediately lifted for a pinch-runner.
Lowrie and Encarnacion: Injuries and Projections
Over the past few days, Eno Sarris has been rolling out our consensus ranking for players at various positions. To create my rankings I used ZiPS rest of season stats to compile my rankings. The only time I changed my ranking was because of expected time lost on the D.L. For some players who are having a good 2012 season (Josh Reddick, Jed Lowrie, Allen Craig, Edwin Encarnacion and Trevor Plouffe), my rankings are lower than most people expected. Today, I am going to look at one cause for a player to be out performing his projections: injuries.
Note: I will be looking at lack of past playing time and a measurable change in talent for the other two causes for a player out performing there projections.
Injuries and how they relate to player performance are one of the few last few frontiers in sabermetric studies. This off season, in two separate studies, Mitchel Litchman (MGL) and myself looked at how injuries affect a hitter’s performance. In MGL’s study, he looked at players who went on the DL and how they performed. He found that hitters under performed their SLG in the year of the injury, but the rest of their traits stayed constant. In my study, I looked at players who played through injuries without going on the D.L. and found the same conclusion. In the year after the injury, the player exceeded their projected power numbers.
Kicking Rocks: Sweatin’ to the Oldies
Every year, at about this time, I like to go back and check in on certain strategies employed on draft day and see how they have served me thus far. Is it a strategy worth employing again? What tweaks to it are needed for the next time, if indeed there is a next time? One strategy in particular, the one that seems to always spur the most discussion, that deserves to be re-visited is the one where I, because of the incredible depth at pitching, draft a beast-like offense first and wait until closer to the middle rounds to pick up my starters. Nothing but bats to start things off and somewhere around the 10th or 11th round, I grab my first pitcher. Read the rest of this entry »
Catchers on the Mend
For the most part, the catcher position has been a pretty big disappointment this season. Some have performed as expected, but by and large, there are more downs than ups. Hopefully, things will pick up in the second half when we get a serious influx of players coming back from injuries who might be better options than the Nick Hundley, Miguel Olivo, or Jason Castro that you have sitting in your catcher slot right now. They’re not all precious gems coming back, but some are definitely better than others and likely better than what’s out on your waiver wire as well. Read the rest of this entry »