• Jon Roegele at The Hardball Times examined the recovery success rates for Tommy John surgeries. Here are a couple of the major points.

To summarize, this examination of Tommy John surgery has shown that while the overall success rate has not seemingly improved over time, in recent years players have been able to get back on the field in the same league faster than they did when the surgery was less common.

And

As far as attrition goes, there is naturally a downward trend for return rates as players age. Comparing Tommy John survivors to all major league pitchers (injured and non-injured, in the last column) shows that recovering from the surgery tends to occur at around the same rate as typical pitchers manage to stay in the league for a given age range. Some age bands are better, some worse, but with sample sizes this small for Tommy John patients it is hard to make a definitive statement in this regard.

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• OK, I got the data finally cleaned up. I have quite a few players added who look to be back for 2015, but I will keep them on until some resolution is complete. For example, John Hamilton is messed up. I will keep him on there to track him until he is playing 100%. Basically, I would rather have a potentially healthy player on the list than miss someone who may be hurt.

• Quite a few players state they will be ready for spring training which is vague. For any player giving spring training as a return time, I set their date to February in the spreadsheet.

• Adam Wainwright’s elbow is acting up as gets near the point when pitchers have their second Tommy John surgery. He came back pitching in 2012. Since then he has thrown three full seasons (582 IP) and nine post season games (54 IP). He is at the sweet spot for when pitchers need their 2nd TJS as I state in this Hardball Times article:

I ran a brief study using the up-to-date TJS database and found those pitchers who had their first TJS from before 2011 averaged 4.5 years until they needed to go under the knife again, with a median time of 4.0 years. These numbers are in the ballpark of the 650 innings value we originally found.

The seasons are bit on the low side, but he is at 636 innings. No matter how the post season goes for him, I will not be paying top dollar for him next season

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Matt Wieters was having a great season in 2014 until early May when his elbow began barking. Eventually his season was lost and he needed Tommy John surgery. Owners may not want to own a hitter coming off such an injury, especially a catcher. So looking forward to 2015, I will lay out a couple points on how to evaluate Wieters as a huge buy low candidate.

So for a timeline of Wieters last season.

April – Everything is fine and Wieters is hitting: .333/.381/.544 in 74 PA

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• For the offseason, I am going to track every player who had or plans on having off-season surgery. I will remove them once they are at 100% in spring training. For some of the injured players in the post season, like Josh Hamilton and Rajai Davis, more information will become available as the postseason goes on or once it is over. Additionally, I am working through all the 2014 injured players individually to see if I need to track them in the offseason. Right now, I have two lists. One of players I have gone through (short) and one I have not examined (long). I should be done next week and have just one list.

• Must See: The Dallas Morning News created a couple of great graphics showing how much time and money was lost to the disabled list this season with a focus on the Rangers. I will go through and run my own values later, but a nice peek at how teams performed health wise in 2014.

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• Ryan Zimmerman returned from the DL and went 2-3 in his first game back. He is far from being 100%. He can barely run jog walk right now. Kirk Gibson’s 1988 home trot is what Zimmerman’s triple reminded me of. I have no clue why he is not resting and waiting for the post-season to force himself into the lineup.

• Stuart Wallace at the Beyond The Box Score gives us his take on Glen Perkins’s elbow.

Overall, Perkins should be ready to go for next season; with the clean bill of health in terms of the UCL, fears that a Tommy John procedure is inevitable should be allayed, even with the knowledge that 40% of baseball players presenting with UCL injuries demonstrate symptoms consistent with ulnar neuritis.

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• I am putting about 90% of my effort into the unofficial DL (list below). Remember to click the date for the most up-to-date article on the injury. Next Monday’s list will probably be the last one on this season and then I will wrap up this season and look towards next season. If you have any questions on a specific player, hit me up on twitter (@jeffwzimmerman).

• Masahiro Tanaka is scheduled to start Sunday for the Yankees. Ignore him at this point. We have no way to determine how he will perform after having his UCL partially torn.

• I will state this a thousand times, stay away from hitters with back issues. The issue never seems to go away. Angel Pagan is again missing time for his back.

• Matt Shoemaker could be done for the regular season. What I see happening is he throws once before the postseason to see how he feels. I would not expect much more from him.

• John Lackey and Michael Wacha will throw for the Cardinals this weekend after missing time with injuries. I don’t trust Wacha because the start seems like it will be a testing to see if he can pitch in the postseason.

• Danny Duffy is expected to pitch Monday after missing a couple starts. I don’t like how his recovery has hit some bumps. I would stay away.
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• I would be weary of starting Danny Duffy tomorrow night after he experienced shoulder soreness in his last start. The team says he is fine, but he would not be pitching if the Royals had any other decent options for a starter (Liam Hendricks is the replacement).

• Michael Choice’s is probably done for the season with a strained hamstring.

• Mat Latos is also done for the season. I have not been a fan of his since coming off the DL (loss of velocity, -2 mph).

• Looks like Michael Wacha may be done starting this season.

“This is a young player where we had something going, missed a couple of months and all those are reasons for us to once again pause and just kind of take our time, make sure everything looks right before moving forward,” Matheny said.

The next step depends on how Wacha responds to the bullpen session.

A positive response could put the 23-year-old back in the Cardinals’ postseason pitching mix. Matheny said Wacha is still a possibility for the rotation, but he wouldn’t rule out a role in the bullpen.

I don’t think he is playable for the rest of season.

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• Reminder, the first table of players are ones who aren’t on the DL, but should be.

• The Phillies say Cliff Lee should be ready for the start of spring training.

Amaro was asked to rate his confidence level that Lee will be ready to contribute next season.

“High,” he said.

Lee was seen by top orthopedists James Andrews and David Altchek. Both agreed that the pitcher has a strain that can heal with rest and rehab. Lee was treated with a platelet-rich plasma injection and will begin throwing in November. If all goes well, he should be ready for Day 1 of spring training.

Or he may not be. I would at least ding Lee a couple weeks of production on next year’s production.

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• Just a reminder, I have an unofficial DL list near the article’s end. Some of the players, Gomez and Jaso, look like they may pinch hit a small bit, but they will miss a considerable amount of time.

• Miguel Cabrera has been dealing with bone spurs in his ankle. He may have surgery on his ankle after his season is over.

The right ankle injury that has hobbled Miguel Cabrera for the better part of the last month could well lead to a second consecutive off season surgery. Cabrera is dealing with at least one bone spur in his right ankle, which could require surgery to correct.
…..
“We don’t know if he requires surgery,” manager Brad Ausmus said after Sunday’s 6-1 win over the Giants. “We don’t know if it’s going to be [healed by] rest, or if surgery would help, and that’ll be determined when the season’s over.
…
The normal timetable for recovery from an ankle surgery to remove spurs, according to injury expert and national sports medicine writer Will Carroll, is four to six weeks. It’s obviously not as severe as core muscle surgery, but with Cabrera’s body frame, explosive swing and the weight put on his ankles, full recovery is crucial.

The signs (power and contact down) pointed to a problem during the season. I expected his core to still be an issue, but I guess it is bone spurs. It will be interesting to see where he gets valued in 2015 after two injury seasons in a row.

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Well, I just got done with the second most time consuming MASH report of the year when it seems everyone moves off the DL or onto the 60-day DL when the rosters expanded. I hope I got it all. Additionally, I have added a third table for players who will miss significant time, but are not on the DL.

• Carlos Beltran will have elbow surgery at the season’s end to remove some bone spurs in his elbow. Beltran may be a player I target in 2015. His value may be so low that he has the potential to generate surplus value like Victor Martinez did in 2014.

• The D-backs Archie Bradley is finally healthy and available to pitch in the Double-A playoffs.

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