Champions League B, an Ottoneu league in which all owners must have previously won an Ottoneu league, had its inaugural auction draft last weekend. First-year auction drafts are compelling and informative, especially when the league is made up of skilled and experienced owners. Theoretically, in first-year auctions, all players should be purchased at or near their actual value. There shouldn’t be too much obvious surplus or too many colossal overpays.

Bargain hunting is a delicate endeavor in a first-year auction. Owners can hunt for potential bargains by targeting players coming off down seasons. Andrew McCutchen comes to mind. So does Yasiel Puig. Buying such players can be risky, because their recent poor play may be indicative of future performance. However, it can also be rewarding, because if the player bounces back he may return more value than his price warrants. Having so-called surplus assets is one of several keys to success in Ottoneu.

McCutchen and Puig saw their value decline because of uncharacteristically poor performance on the field. Another type of player to target when searching for surplus is players coming off injuries. Two specific examples are among the most compelling and potentially undervalued fantasy assets in the game. They’re the same age (29), and they play on the same team. They have remarkably similar career numbers and both had season-ending injuries in 2016. Below are the career totals for underrated co-stars A.J. Pollock and David Peralta: Read the rest of this entry »

Today, I continue the comparison of my Pod Projections to Steamer in various fantasy categories, this time identifying players I believe have stolen base upside. My stolen base projections are calculated using a proprietary metric I developed that is revealed in Projecting X 2.0. Essentially, it’s a stolen base attempts per opportunities ratio and I use historical rates to guide my projected rate.

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

2017 Pod Projections Index:
Lance McCullers

Today, I’ll dive into the first hitter to receive the exciting 2017 Pod Projection treatment. David Dahl thrilled us during his debut last year, showing power (.185 ISO), speed (7.7 Spd score, five steals), and batting average ability (.315). That’s literally everything we want as fantasy owners. Of course, let’s not ignore the fact that he required an absurd .404 BABIP to reach that impressive batting average mark. That said, he plays half his games at Coors Field, so perhaps his average has some staying power. Early 2017 NFBC drafters are already falling over each other to roster him, selecting him as the 22nd outfielder off the board (just before Matt Kemp, Khris Davis, and Adam Jones), and 91st overall. WOWZERS! That’s some serious love.

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I love comparing my Pod Projections to Steamer, since mine are all done in a massively time consuming manner by hand, while Steamer is spit out by the almighty computer in mere seconds. It works as a sort of checks and balances system, as I am likely aware of various issues the computer doesn’t know about, while I might have some inherent biases I don’t even realize that the computer won’t suffer from.

So today, I continue my new series pitting my projections against Steamer in a specific fantasy relevant stat category. Last Thursday, I listed the hitters that I was most bullish on for home runs compared to Steamer, so today, I’ll look into the hitters Steamer is most bullish on compared to my projections.

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

A couple of months ago, I received my first Pod Projection request from a commenter, and that request was for Astros starting pitcher Lance McCullers. The 23-year-old made his Houston debut in 2015, as he made 22 starts and posted an impressive 3.22 ERA with excellent underlying skills. Unfortunately, he followed up that freshman effort by finding himself on the disabled list for what amounted to about half the season. He dealt with both shoulder and elbow issues, which limited him to just 14 starts. Although his control deserted him, he still posted strong skills, en route to an identical ERA as 2015. Now, he’s the newest member of my 2017 LABR Mixed Draft squad, so let’s find out what I projected his 2017 results to look like.

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Some fans call him Superman, and for good reason. He hits for average and for power; he draws walks and barely strikes out; he plays premier defense at a premium position. He’s won Rookie of the Year, Most Valuable Player, three Silver Sluggers, a batting title, a Gold Glove, and oh by the way, three World Series rings. Read the rest of this entry »

Nearly a month and a half ago, I shared the names of six starting pitchers who my old xK% metric suggested had the most strikeout rate upside this season, assuming their equation components remained unchanged. I then got sidetracked, introduced an updated version of the equation with new component coefficients and then even played around with incorporating CH% (changeup percentage) into an even newer version of the equation. So I never actually got around to the list of starting pitchers with strikeout rate downside. It’s now time to share those names with you very patient people.

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Let’s now follow up yesterday’s 2017 BABIP decliners list by looking back at who the new xBABIP would have convinced us to avoid heading into the 2016 season. Like I did when validating xBABIP using the surgers, I’ll compare how the would-have-been 2016 list performed versus their 2015 xBABIP and 2016 Steamer projections.

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At the MLB owners meetings earlier this week, the competition committee agreed on a motion to raise the bottom of the strike zone from the hollow below the knee cap to the top of the hitter’s knees. That change isn’t a done deal for 2017—or at all—but it is an interesting idea for an attempt to cut down increasing strikeout totals in baseball. The ESPN Stats and Info tweet in that previous link shows the marked increase of called strikes in the lower third of the zone in recent seasons, a trend no doubt influenced by teams’ recent dedication to pitch-framing catchers.

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Finally, after unmasking the newest version of xBABIP that accounts for shifts, it’s time to get to the names…you know, the kind of list you could actually use for your fantasy leagues this year! So let’s identify and discuss the fantasy relevant hitters whose xBABIP marks were significantly above their actual BABIP marks. These ten hitters should enjoy a BABIP rebound in 2017, assuming their BABIP-related skills remain stable.

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