It’s officially that time of year. A deal was struck between the Oakland Athletics and Washington Nationals on Sunday that sent relievers Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Nats in exchange for Blake Treinen and two prospects.

That the Nationals made a move for bullpen help doesn’t come as a surprise, but Doolittle and Madson weren’t necessarily the most obvious candidates. Now that the deal is done, the question is: who’s going to serve as closer for a Nationals bullpen that has struggled so mightily this season?

According to SB Nation’s Federal Baseball, Nationals manager Dusty Baker was non-committal:

“I’m not sure. I’ve got to talk to [A’s manager] Bob Melvin. Like I said, both of them have closed, I know both of them have had some arm problems in the past, so it could be both of them, you know what I mean, so we’ll see.”

Although Baker wouldn’t name an official closer, it would appear that the job will go to one of the two newly-acquired relievers from Oakland.

Doolittle is seven years younger than Madson, and he has the strikeout stuff more typical of a closer. He’s striking out nearly 40 percent of batters faced this season, and his career mark is north of 30 percent. He’s always been exceptional at limiting walks, too, as his 4.8 percent career walk rate indicates. He’s also managed to limit homers to the tune of a career 0.78 HR/9 despite being a fly ball pitcher.

When he’s healthy, Doolittle is an elite reliever, but arm injuries have limited him to just 64 innings since 2014. He has spent time on the disabled list this season with a strain in his throwing shoulder.

Madson, meanwhile, has pitched at least 60 innings in each of the last two seasons and already has 39.1 innings this season. This year, he’s featuring a career-high 27.1 percent strikeout rate, and he’s struck out 20.8 percent of batters he’s faced in his career. Like Doolittle, command has never been an issue, as his 7.0 percent career walk rate indicates. Perhaps most impressively, Madson hasn’t allowed a home run per nine innings or worse in any single season since 2006, when he was still a starting pitcher. His consistently excellent home run prevention is made possible by his sterling 48.4 percent career ground ball rate.

Since Doolittle is the more electric of the two, he will probably get the first shot at save opportunities. His recent arm issues and flyball tendencies, however, make him the riskier option. Should Doolittle falter, or if the Nationals decide to go the safer route from the start, Madson is a reasonable ninth-inning option who could do well if called upon. Stay tuned for updates on how this all shakes out.

On Saturday, Alex Claudio picked up his third save of the season for the Rangers. With a 1-0 lead in the ninth, right-hander Jose Leclerc walked the leadoff hitter Lorenzo Cain on four pitches, and so the lefty Claudio was summoned for Eric Hosmer. He struck out Hosmer, then got Salvador Perez to hit into a game-ending double play. On Sunday, Claudio pitched a scoreless bottom of the eighth in a tie game. Claudio has emerged as a possible closer for the Rangers, as Al Melchior pointed out on Friday. He doesn’t boast exceptional strikeout stuff, but he does have a terrific 63.5 percent career ground ball rate that allows him to limit homers and induce weak contact.

The Cardinals are going to a closer by committee, but it didn’t work in their or Brett Cecil’s favor on Sunday. Cecil blew a one-run lead as he allowed two runs on three hits and a walk against the Pirates, and it’s a full-blown red situation in St. Louis. Seung Hwan Oh has struggled all season, especially against lefties, who have a .447 wOBA against him, so Cecil was brought in to face a lefty-heavy part of the Pirates lineup and couldn’t get the job done. Anchored by a strikeout rate near 40 percent, former closer Trevor Rosenthal has the best peripherals in the Cardinals ‘pen, so he should get a consistent opportunity to close at some point in the near future. He’s the most desirable Cardinal to target for now. Despite Sunday’s failed opportunity, Cecil may also be worth an add for those in need of saves, as he’s clearly in the mix for save opportunities moving forward. Cecil boasts solid peripherals in his own right.

Other closer activity: Aroldis Chapman notched his ninth save of the season. Kenley Jansen picked up his 23rd save in 1.1 innings of work. He struck out three. Zach Britton pitched a scoreless inning with the Orioles down six runs. He allowed a hit and a walk. Ken Giles allowed a run on a hit and a walk but picked up his 20th save of the season. Hector Neris allowed a couple of bloop singles to open the ninth with a three-run lead, but he closed things out with a strikeout and two popups. It was his eighth save. Justin Wilson struck out one in a perfect ninth inning in a tie game at home. David Robertson also struck out one in a scoreless ninth inning in a tie game at home. Edwin Diaz needed just 12 pitches to strike out all three batters he faced against the White Sox in the 10th inning to pick up his 16th save of the season. Bud Norris escaped a bases-loaded, one-out situation with the tying run on third base. He allowed a run but notched his 14th save.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Yesterday, I identified a group of hitters worth buying for their home run upside, given the discrepancy between their actual HR/FB rate and xHR/FB rate. Today, I move over to batting average, as I identify the hitters whose xBABIP marks most exceed their actual BABIP marks. These are the guys to target for batting average that you may be able to get at a discount.

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The All-Star break provides a much needed rest and a perfect opportunity to assess your team(s). The last time I used xHR/FB rate to identify hitters due for a home run spike was in the middle of May, so now is an excellent time to name names once again. These are the fantasy relevant hitters whose xHR/FB rates most exceed their actual HR/FB rates, which represents a strong list of acquisition targets if you’re looking to bolster your standing in the home run department and are hoping to buy at a discount.

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Another compelling day of bullpen activity around the major leagues as the unofficial first half of the season comes to a close…

One day after allowing two walks and a walk-off homer, All-Star closer Corey Knebel entered in the eighth inning with a two-run lead, two outs, and a runner on second. He walked Ji-Man Choi, but retired the next batter on a ground ball to short. In the ninth, Knebel walked Brett Gardner to open the inning, but then struck out Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, and Gary Sanchez to notch his 14th save and secure the first-place Brewers’ 50th victory. The strikeout of Judge marked Knebel’s 44th consecutive appearance with at least one strikeout, which is now just five shy of the major league record for a relief pitcher set by Aroldis Chapman in 2014. Knebel’s 43 consecutive appearances with at least one strikeout to open the season is already the single-season record and the most ever to begin a year.

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Mookie Betts does remarkable things pretty regularly on a baseball field, but what he did earlier this week struck me as particularly remarkable. On Sunday, Betts knocked in eight runners against the reeling Blue Jays. That is a rare feat. Only 19 other players have done the same since the start of the 2007 season. Meanwhile, Betts accomplished that rarity from the leadoff spot, which is even more unusual. He’s the only hitter who has done so over that same decade.

Betts is much more of a power hitter than a typical leadoff man, and so he was as good a candidate as anyone to make history. Also the Red Sox are in the AL and are in the upper third of teams in runs scored this season, so they should provide more opportunities for their leadoff men to plate runners than a typical team. But Betts’ accomplishment and the feat’s rarity bring up two contradictory thoughts. Is Betts good enough and is the Red Sox’s offense good enough to overcome the fantasy handicap in RBIs Betts should face batting first in the order instead of third or fourth? Or is Betts a little bit less valuable than he could be in fantasy, at least in that specific category (recognizing that the leadoff spot should counterbalance the loss of RBIs with some extra runs and extra plate appearances to add weight to Betts’ batting average)?

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Yesterday, I listed the 20 pitchers with the largest gaps between their ERA and SIERA marks, with their ERA marks sitting significantly higher than their SIERA marks, suggesting serious potential for improvement moving forward. Today, I’ll list the pitchers on the other side of the coin, the 20 with ERA marks significantly lower than their SIERA marks, suggesting real potential for ERA regression.

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We’re nearing the midpoint of the season (wow has it come quickly!), so it’s finally time to check in on the starting pitchers whose ERA marks are significantly higher than their SIERA marks. Naturally, many on this list are bad, even after figuring in some improvement, but there are enough potentially good pitchers that would make for actual fantasy targets. So let’s discuss them. For completeness purposes, I’m listing the entire top 20, but will only discuss those that matter.

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Following up on Friday’s Bullpen Report in which we reported that Roberto Osuna was unavailable due to illness, it turns out that it was mental illness. Arden Zwelling of Sportnet passed along the following comments from the Blue Jays closer:

I don’t really know how to explain it. I just feel anxious. I feel like I’m lost a little bit right now. This has nothing to do with me being on the field. I feel great out there. It’s just when I’m out of baseball. When I’m not on the field, I feel just weird and a little bit lost.

Needless to say, Osuna’s mental health should be everyone’s top priority. It was encouraging that he pitched the ninth inning on Sunday with an 8-2 lead. He allowed a two-out single but struck out the side.

Despite the appearance on Sunday, Osuna’s status as the team’s full-time closer remains in doubt for the time being while he works through his personal issues. Ryan Tepera is next in line for saves if Osuna needs to miss additional time.

Matt Bush, who was saddled with a blown save and a loss on Friday, closed out a one-run win over the Yankees on Sunday. With a blazing fastball, he breezed through the first two outs before Aaron Judge singled, and the inning culminated in a battle with Gary Sanchez, who had homered earlier in the game. Despite the drama, Bush struck out Sanchez on a sharp slider off the plate, giving him his ninth save of the season. Things haven’t been easy for Bush as of late: he currently has a troubling 4.55 FIP and 4.34 xFIP. However, Bush has the stuff to be at least an adequate closer, and the projections back that up. Recent struggles aside, Bush still seems to have a grasp on the closer’s role, although Keone Kela is lurking behind him.

Yusmeiro Petit picked up a two-inning save against the Red Sox. The Angels bullpen in general is going through significant change right now, with Bud Norris recently landing on the disabled list and Cam Bedrosian and Huston Street recently returning from injury. Bedrosian looks like the closer moving forward, at least until Norris returns, and Petit probably received the save chance on Sunday because Bedrosian had thrown 30 pitches the previous day. In that 30-pitch outing, Bedrosian allowed two runs on two hits, two walks, and a wild pitch.

Santiago Casilla allowed a home run and a single but picked up his 13th save against the White Sox. Casilla has been shaky all season, and Sunday was no exception. He now has a 4.28 ERA/4.20 FIP/4.75 xFIP in 27.1 innings. On his heels, Sean Doolittle has been outstanding as of late. Doolittle has 22 strikeouts and has allowed just one walk and two homers in 13.2 innings. True, the sample size is minuscule, but Doolittle’s 1.98 ERA/2.04 FIP/1.85 xFIP looks so much better than what Casilla has done this season. If Doolittle can prove that he’s healthy and reliable, it’s conceivable that a change in the pecking order could take place at some point this season.

Alex Colome pitched the top of the ninth in a tie game, and he allowed three runs on two hits, two intentional walks, and a hit batsman. As has been mentioned multiple times in the Bullpen Report this year, Colome’s strikeout rate has fallen back down to earth after he put up impressive numbers in that category last season. But for the most part, he still gets the job done. Despite the 4.40 xFIP this season, he has just a 3.15 ERA and 3.17 FIP, and that same trend (beating his xFIP) has held true throughout his major league career. The projections forecast good things moving forward from Colome as well, so today’s outing looks like just a rare bad one for Colome.

Joe Kelly extended his scoreless streak to 21 consecutive outings dating back to May 1. In that 18.1 inning span, Kelly has a 26.8 percent strikeout rate and 55.6 percent ground ball rate. He’s picked up holds in three of his last four appearances and has nine on the season. Overall, Kelly boasts a 1.10 ERA/3.05 FIP/3.98 xFIP in 32.2 innings this season, but his strikeout rate is projected to increase (it’s just 18.5 percent on the year), and he could be on his way to a sustained and prominent role in the Red Sox ‘pen. He’s bumping Heath Hembree, who has just one hold since May 26, off the grid for now.

Other closer activity: A.J. Ramos picked up a four-out save (12). Brandon Kintzler pitched a perfect ninth in a non-save situation. Brach Brach pitched a scoreless eighth and ninth and was rewarded with a win. Craig Kimbrel allowed a run on two hits and a strikeout in a non-save situation. Raisel Iglesias pitched 1.2 innings to finish off the Nationals in a non-save situation. Fernando Rodney pitched a scoreless top of the ninth in a tie game. He struck out one and walked a batter. Brandon Maurer pitched the top of the ninth in a tie game and allowed two runs on two hits and a walk. He has a 6.53 ERA and a 3.86 xFIP. Justin Wilson struck out two in a perfect ninth to notch his sixth save of the season. Kenley Jansen entered with a one-run lead with one out in the eighth, and he ultimately finished off the Rockies in the ninth with a six-run lead. Jansen added to the offensive explosion in the bottom of the eighth with an RBI double off Greg Holland.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

In my last two articles on streaky hitters, I came up with a method to identify when hitters entered and exited hot and cold streaks. However, to really make a difference for fantasy players, streaks must both be identifiable and persistent. There’s no point in benching a hitter in a cold streak if that streak is just as likely to be over with as not when you realize it is happening. And so, for this article, I decided to look at hitter performances in the days following the recognition of streaks.

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Change in pitch mix often coincides with a change in performance. It’s one of the few statistical changes we could identify immediately. So let’s take a look at which American League starting pitchers have changed their pitch mix versus last year the most.

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