Another exciting weekend of bullpen activity around the major leagues…

Kelvin Herrera is out as Royals closer, according to an ESPN report. Manager Ned Yost said the team will go with a closer-by-committee, utilizing Brandon Maurer, Mike Minor, or Scott Alexander to close games. Maurer picked up the save on Saturday, with Minor pitching 1.2 innings to bridge the gap from the starter to Maurer. As I mentioned in last weekend’s Report, Alexander may be the most intriguing of the bunch, but Yost seems to prefer Maurer because of his experience as a closer.

Shortly after being traded to the Cardinals, Juan Nicasio pitched 1.1 innings to earn the save against the Pirates on Friday. On Saturday, he struck out two and allowed one hit to pick up another save against the team that cut him loose earlier this month. Tyler Lyons pitched the eighth and John Brebbia pitched the seventh, so that’s the order we’re rolling with on the grid. The Cardinals bullpen situation has been quite volatile since Trevor Rosenthal got hurt, so Nicasio could easily grab the closer role and run with it if he continues to pitch well. Read the rest of this entry »

On Friday, for the second time in 11 days, Kelvin Herrera was pulled from an existing ninth inning because of discomfort in his throwing arm. Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star reported on Saturday that the Royals expect Herrera to be unavailable for at least three days because of what Dodd calls a “mild strain in the lower part of his right forearm.”

With Hererra still unavailable on Sunday, Scott Alexander struck out two in a scoreless inning (spanning the sixth and seventh), Peter Moylan retired the lone batter he faced in the seventh, Mike Minor walked two in a scoreless eighth, and Brandon Maurer worked around a leadoff two-base error and struck out one to secure his 21st save.

The Royals were blown out 17-0 on Saturday, so Sunday offered the only glimpse into their plan of attack with Herrera on the shelf. Herrera has not been very good season, so his job could be in jeopardy to some degree even if he comes back healthy in the next few days.

Alexander successfully converted the save both times Herrera had to depart mid-inning, and his numbers (2.24 ERA/3.33 FIP/3.12 xFIP) suggest he could enjoy continued success in the ninth if given the opportunity. Entering Sunday, he boasted a ridiculous 74.8 percent ground ball rate, a solid 20.5 percent strikeout rate, and an acceptable 9.6 percent walk rate in 45 appearances spanning 56.1 innings. Minor (2.86 ERA/2.71 FIP/3.60 xFIP in 66 innings) also seems like someone capable of closing out games. Read the rest of this entry »

Two weeks ago, Wil Myers stole three bases in a game against the Phillies. All three came in the fourth inning when he stole second, third, and home to single-handedly manufacture a run following his single. Since then, Myers has stolen two more bases to raise his August total to six. That isn’t Billy Hamilton or Byron Buxton territory, but it’s really useful in a player who also provides power.

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Another messy outing for Greg Holland on Saturday. With a three-run lead in the ninth, he allowed two singles and a home run and was pulled with one out and the Rockies clinging to a one-run lead. Jake McGee was brought in to put out the fire, and he induced a game-ending double play.

After the game, when asked if he would continue to use Holland in save situations, Bud Black said, “Possibly. But maybe not. His next outing might be a closing situation. I can’t answer that right now. We haven’t definitively made that decision.”

On Sunday, again with a three-run lead, Black elected to use McGee to start the ninth, and he delivered a one-two-three inning. This, of course, looks like trouble for Holland and his fantasy owners.

In eight appearances dating back to August 6, Holland has faced 39 batters over 6.1 innings and has allowed 14 earned runs on four homers, 13 hits, and six walks while amassing just four strikeouts. His ERA has jumped from 1.56 to 4.05 over that span, which is a good reminder about the uselessness of past ERA as a predictor of future ERA, especially for relievers who pitch over tiny samples.

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You wouldn’t know it if you were just focusing on his 3.42 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, but this has easily been Cole Hamels‘ worst season as a Major Leaguer. His SIERA, xFIP, and FIP have all jumped above 4.00 for the first time, while both his xFIP- and FIP- have surged into the triple digits for the first time (higher is worse). Hamels missed two months of action thanks to an oblique strain, but since it was a non-arm injury, we certainly couldn’t blame it for the collapse of his underlying skills. What’s going on here?

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Another busy weekend for bullpen activity around the major leagues. We’ll start with a few notes from Saturday:

• Yankees manager Joe Girardi announced on Saturday that Aroldis Chapman was removed from the closer role. Dellin Betances got save later that night, striking out two in a perfect inning. It’s been well documented that something doesn’t look right with Chapman this season, especially lately, and thankfully for the Yankees Betances is more than capable of filling in for the remainder of the season if need be. Despite struggling with command more than usual this season, Betances has an outstanding 40.5 percent strikeout rate, and he’s allowed just one home run this year in 47 innings. He’s been an superb reliever in his career, and this year doesn’t look very different except for the uptick in walks. Girardi didn’t “officially” name Betances the closer just yet (in fact, he said that David Robertson was also in the mix), but Betances should be the heavy favorite. Chapman pitched in the sixth and seventh on Sunday, allowing one walk and striking out two.

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Over the last two weeks, the hitter walk rate leaderboard features some usual suspects. Joey Votto is first at 31.7 percent. Mike Trout is third at 25.9 percent. But sandwiched between them is Yasiel Puig at 27.3 percent. 27.3 percent! This is the same player who finished the 2016 season with a 6.5 percent walk rate over 368 plate appearances. This is the same player who swung at this pitch:

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The Twins blew an 11-6 seventh-inning lead on Saturday. Their new (interim?) closer Matt Belisle relieved Trevor Hildenberger in eighth after Hildenberger allowed a two-run homer with two outs. Belisle got a strikeout to end the inning, but then allowed a leadoff single and a walk-off home run to Justin Upton in the ninth.

The next day, Hildenberger was summoned with two outs in the eighth to face Upton, who represented the tying run. He struck him out on three pitches, then came back out for the bottom of the ninth. He remained very sharp as he struck out two and induced two weak ground balls for his first career save.

The strong appearance, coupled with Belisle’s struggles in the ninth on Saturday, mean that Hildenberger could seize the closer’s role and run with it. His numbers in his brief major league career are impressive: in 23 innings this year, Hildenberger has a 26.8 percent strikeout rate, a 3.1 percent walk rate, and a 58.5 percent ground ball rate. He has a 3.13 ERA/2.79 FIP/2.67 xFIP. He’s allowed just two home runs. He seems more than capable of handling the closer’s role, and he’s probably worth grabbing in all formats before he successfully converts a few more save chances and gains national attention. It’s worth noting that Glen Perkins is expected to return from the disabled list sometime this week, and his presence may further complicate the outlook for Belisle and Hildenberger. Read the rest of this entry »

Just like last Sunday, another meltdown for the Angels ‘pen was the highlight of the day. With a four-run lead and two outs in the eighth, Blake Parker allowed a single to Jed Lowrie, a home run to Khris Davis, and a double to Ryon Healy. With the lead down to two, he was pulled in favor of Bud Norris, who surrendered a run-scoring single to Chad Pinder (the run was charged to Parker), a double to Matt Chapman that put the tying run on third and the go-ahead run on second, and finally he allowed a two-run single to Bruce Maxwell that gave Oakland an 11-10 lead. Read the rest of this entry »

In my previous article, I created an approach to examine pitcher strengths of schedule by aggregating the hit frequency projections of the hitters they faced. So, for example, Dee Gordon was projected to hit 0.229 singles, 0.032 doubles, 0.015 triples, etc. against right-handed pitchers when he faced Stephen Strasburg in the first plate appearance of the season. By adding together all of those fractional singles, doubles, and other possible results, I was able to calculate an expected wOBA for pitchers based on the quality of the batters they faced.

If you think of the differences in expected wOBA as schedule luck, then that initial research suggested that the difference between the luckiest and unluckiest pitcher so far in 2017 was pretty small. The former was Patrick Corbin, whose batters faced combined for a .324 projected wOBA against left-handed pitchers. The latter was Ricky Nolasco, whose batters faced combined for a .337 projected wOBA against right-handed pitchers. That difference of 13 points of wOBA is the same as the difference between Kyle Seager and James Loney. It’s something, but it isn’t huge.

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