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Hitters

Colson Montgomery (9): His .257 AVG has come out of left field after struggling to hit for average for years. The biggest surprise has been him dropping his strikeout rate from 33% to 24%. I’m not buying the lower strikeout rate since his swinging-strike rate jumped from 13.1% to 17.2%. Here are some comps to similar swinging-strike rates that point to a 30% K%.

Josh Jung (7): The 27-year-old came off the IL this past Monday (July 21st), so his adds were a week behind. He’s not lived up to his prospect hype and is not a fantasy difference maker (10 HR, 4 SB, .249 AVG). At least he’s healthy … for now.

Gabriel Arias (6): While not much of a fantasy contributor (.234/.294/.381, 7 HR, 4 SB), he is off the IL and back to playing every day.

Joc Pederson (6): Pederson crushes right-handed pitching. Nothing more. One concern is that all his power metrics are at multi-year lows. Maybe bench him for a week or two as he builds up his strength (broken hand).

Warming Bernabel (6): The 23-year-old third baseman is on a Kyren Paris-like hot start. In the majors so far, Bernabel is batting .389/.421/.833 with 2 HR in 19 PA. In AAA, he hit .301/.356/.450 with 8 HR and 5 SB. While those numbers look great, it’s just a 90 wRC+ (10% worse than the average AAA batter) once run environment is taken into account.

His number one trait is his ability to put the ball in play with a just a 12% K% in AAA and a 5% K% so far in the majors. He doesn’t have much power. His AAA 84.2 avgEV ranks 862nd among 972 batters in AAA. He pulled both his home runs right down the line.

For now, he’s an add and monitor.

Ryan Mountcastle (5): Some reports had Mountcastle possibly coming off the IL this week, but it seems to be another week for him.

#Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle (hamstring) is eligible to return from IL tomorrow, but he’s unlikely to be back until series in Philadelphia next week

— Jake Rill (@JakeDRill) July 29, 2025

He’s been crushing AAA so far (253 wRC+) with good EV numbers (97 mph avgEV, 112 maxEV). Once he returns, playing time will not be an issue with some of his teammates traded away.

Tommy Pham (5): The Pham demand comes from his weekend games in Colorado. He’s been playing (starting regularly since July 1st) and hitting (.302/.373/.488 in June) for weeks, but no one seemed to care. He’s not doing anything new. It’s just one of the hot stretches he’ll go on. Ed. note: He did also get a new contact Rx that helped his vision which is particularly important as he does have a degenerative eye issue called keratoconus. 

Coby Mayo (5): With several teammates likely to get traded (did happen), managers hoped Mayo (.225/.307/.382, 3 HR, 1 SB) would get more playing time. I’m just not sure Mayo is a good baseball player.

Starters

Troy Melton (11): So a 10.80 ERA can be ignored? While Melton gave up a ton of hits in his debut against the Pirates, he did strike out seven of them while walking two (3.28 xFIP). And on Monday, he went 7 IP with 5 K, 0 BB, and 0 ER over 7 IP (3.36 xFIP). I had the unknown ranked as my fourth-highest free agent starter this past weekend, and that might have been too low.

He’s example #48452 on why to ignore ERA when evaluating pitchers. Hell, just look at his AAA numbers: 2.72 ERA, 2.24 xFIP, 1.1b WHIP, 12.1 K/9. As for an arsenal, he has a 97-mph fastball (11% SwStr%), slider (23% SwStr%), sinker (75% GB%), cutter, curve, and splitter (14% SwStr%). Here are how the pitches did in AAA:

Ed. note: He did get moved to the bullpen after the deadline moves so now he’s the 6th SP. 

J.T. Ginn (9): Time to keep it simple with Ginn. His stats are

9.6 K/9
2.1 BB/9
54% GB%

Pitchers who are better in all three categories this year:

None

The closest comp is Cristopher Sánchez (9.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 58% GB%). By just continuing to pitch like he has so far, Ginn will be comparable to the top pitchers in the game.

Luis Severino (6): Severino is in the middle of a nice stretch to add as a streamer. This week he faced Seattle (5 IP, 6 K, 2 BB, 1 ER, 5 H) with a two-step lineup up next week at Washington and Baltimore.

Besides the decent stream, he has been better in July with a 3.81 ERA (3.42 xFIP) compared to a 5.09 ERA (4.76 xFIP) before that. The improvement is from more strikeouts and groundballs.

Stat: April to June, July
K%: 15%, 24%
FBv: 95.8, 96.8
Zone%: 54%, 56%
GB%: 39%, 51%

The only reasons I could find for the strikeout jump are increased velocity and more pitches in the strike zone. The more I write, the more I’m getting pissed that I didn’t emphasize him more this past weekend.

Justin Verlander (6): This add is almost entirely based on Verlander’s matchup against the Pirates this week (5 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 1 BB) and two-step next week against the Pirates and Nationals.

He is showing no signs of improving, so I suspect Verlander will be dropped after the two-start week.

Joey Wentz (5): Like Verlander, Wentz was added for a decent two-start week. This week, he gets Kansas City (6 IP, 7 K, 0 ER, 3 BB) with two starts next week against the Brewers and Marlins.

Wentz is a career 5.59 ERA (4.74 xFIP) with no signs of improving this year (5.45 ERA, 4.47 xFIP). He’s been dropped by two other teams before joining the Braves. In 18 IP since joining the Braves, he has a 3.09 xFIP. With the Pirates, it was a 4.56 xFIP. A 7.95 xFIP with the Twins. The improvement he made was throwing more strikes.

Team: Ball%
PIT: 37%
MIN: 41%
ATL: 34%

A 34% Ball% usually points to a high-3.00 ERA talent. Not great, but way better than his previous results.

Relievers

Seranthony Domínguez (9): These adds coincided with Félix Bautista going on the IL, but all reports had the Orioles trading away Dominguez. And they did. Drop.

Phil Maton (5): Rumors had Ryan Helsley on the move, so fantasy managers bet Maton would take over the closer’s duties. Again, all reports also had Maton on the move. Maton is now a drop.

Blake Treinen (5): The Dodgers didn’t have a closer, and Treinen was coming off the IL. This add was perfect for those looking to add Saves.

Garrett Whitlock (5): On Sunday, Aroldis Chapman left with a back issue, so managers looked to add his replacement.

7:31	Jeff Zimmerman:

Read the rest of this entry »

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

7:31	Jeff Zimmerman:

Read the rest of this entry »

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Will Benson (7): For anyone using weekly projections, Benson jumped off the page as an add. He came in as the week’s 77th-ranked batter. It might not seem like he’s worth adding, but in a 12-team league with 168 batters rostered, Benson is worth 0.2 points in the standings compared to a replacement outfielder. If a similar move is made every week throughout a season, it would theoretically be worth 5.2 spots in the standings.

In leagues with a decent waiver wire, being able to churn one to three spots can be a huge advantage.

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 (6): Kim returned to the Rays and immediately injured himself. Once regularly playing, he could be a difference maker with potential for Steals and Home Runs.

So far, he seems to be trading off power for more contact with some career-low power StatCast numbers in his AAA rehab. Solid gamble.

Colson Montgomery (6): I didn’t believe in Montgomery because of his 34% K% in AAA. If an AAA pitcher dominates a batter, I don’t want him in the majors. While a .500 BABIP in 17 PA has his overall numbers up (.385/.500/.538), his 15.6% SwStr% is 2.5% points higher than his AAA rate.

With all the hitters who were destroying AAA and then struggled in the majors, why would I want one who is getting eaten up by AAA pitching?

Max Muncy (West Sacramento) (5): Experiencing a hot streak (.316/.350/.789 in July) but has struggled (75 wRC+, 32% K%) for most of the season. He has shown more power with 7 HR in 179 PA. I backed off of him and several others A’s because Miguel Andujar (.296/.328/.402) is about to come off the IL. Zack Gelof’s return contributes to the roster crunch.

Francisco Alvarez (5): Sent to AAA, and someone thought it was time to add him for a potential future callup. Wasn’t horrible with a 92 wRC+ (.236/.319/.333). He wasn’t much of a fantasy contributor with 3 HR and 0 SB to go with the .236 AVG in 138 PA.

There may be more to the demotion than just his performance. By keeping Alvarez down until Saturday, the Mets gain another year of control over him.

Unless Alvarez is recalled to the major leagues by Saturday, he will have spent enough time in the minors this season to delay his free agency by a full year. The New York Mets will gain an additional year of team control over the catcher, who wouldn’t become a free agent until after the 2029 season. Alvarez would be a free agent entering his age-28 season, still relatively young to be on the open market.

“I can’t worry about that right now — it’s a lot for me to worry about right now,” Alvarez told The Athletic when approached about the free-agency issue Tuesday before a game in Syracuse. “I didn’t know that, but I feel like I need to just focus on getting better and that’s it.”

…

Alvarez’s demotion was not a surprise, and it wasn’t primarily motivated by the service-time issue. Though trying to incorporate a swing change, the third-year catcher has just six extra-base hits in 35 major-league games. His slugging percentage is 100 points lower than it was as a rookie in 2023.

Starters

Joey Cantillo (9): On Monday, Cantillo made his first major league start of the season, going 3 IP on 68 pitches. The results were similar to his results to date, a good number of strikeouts (5) and walks (3). He has some Will Warren/Tylor Megill vibes. He has good enough stuff to get the strikeouts, but the walks can come back to bite him.

On top of his WHIP is doing as much ratio damage as a 4.87 ERA, he’s not going deep into games. That might be the Guardians’ plan to limit his innings like the White Sox did with Garrett Crochet last season. Cantillo has never surpassed 119 IP in a single season and only threw 78 IP last season. So far this season, he’s at 47 IP.

Pablo López (6): On the 60-day IL, and the earliest he can come off the IL is early August, after going on the IL on June 5th. This is a pure stash player and could be worth losing the extra roster spot if Lopez returns to pitch like he was before the injury (2.82 ERA, 2.98 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 9.1 K/9).

Sean Burke (5): I wrote the following about Burke in this week’s Waiver Wire article.

Since I wrote the analysis, he faced the Blue Jays and got lit up for 6 ER, 2 K, 3 BB, and 3 HR in 5 IP. He’s likely just a streamer against weaker offenses.

Ryan Gusto (5): Gusto’s (4.61 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 1.44 WHIP) demand is the hope that he replaces Colton Gordon (4.76 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 1.41 WHIP) in the Astros rotation. It seems like Gusto’s been overall better, but he padded his ERA with seven relief appearances (4.92 ERA as SP, 3.29 ERA as RP).

All of Gusto’s struggles have come against lefties. Against righties, he has a 2.49 FIP. Now, against lefties, it’s a 5.86 FIP. Broken down against lefties, it’s a:

4.9 BB/9
2.3 HR/9
.354 BABIP.

If he starts Sunday, he’ll face Texas, which is in the middle of the pack with right-handed batters comprising 57% of their plate appearances.

Logan Allen로건 (5): Allen is scheduled to face the White Sox, so he’s tempting for most fantasy teams to use. His 4.07 ERA is his best trait, with projections and ERA estimators pointing to a mid-4.00 ERA talent. Additionally, his 1.43 WHIP has done as much damage as a 5.10 ERA.

He’s shown a little improvement over his last six starts with his walk rate down from 4.7 BB/9 to 2.8 BB/9.

I get the same feeling as I did with Burke, where I might roster him, but I don’t feel good about.

Relievers

Ronny Henriquez (7): Miami’s closer with some amazing stats (2.72 ERA, 3.17 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, and 12.6 K/9).

Adrian Morejon (5): The lefty is being used in high-leverage spots with some great stats (1.79 ERA, 2.94 xFIP, 8.3 K/9, 0.82 WHIP). My only issue with Morejon is that, being a lefty, he’s likely behind righty Jason Adam for the closer’s role if Robert Suarez falters.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »