Archive for FAAB

Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome, here the winning bids in the two 15-team redraft ToutWars leagues.

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman:

7:30
Brent: Do you expect any production of out Hoskins ROS?

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: No

7:32
Rand: Thoughts on Luis Matos who has hit very well in the few games since recall. Noticed he has a very low K rate and very low BABIP. Anything here?

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Low BABIP, it’s at .500

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FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 22)


Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »


Big Kid Adds (Week 20)


Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Dylan Beavers (10): A solid target for any fantasy managers needing help with batting average and/or stolen bases. The 24-year-old outfielder may not have elite power, but it’s non-zero with 15 HR last season and 18 so far this year. He has a great eye and consistently posts a .400 OBP. Being on base that much means he has a chance to steal bases (55-grade speed).

Colby Thomas (10): For fantasy teams needing power, Thomas is the long shot. In the minors, he hit 31 HR in 2024 and 18 HR this season. In the majors, he added 3 HR to the total. He’s even added 2 SB.

His downfall is his 43% K% (21% SwStr%) with a .370 BABIP, maintaining his .241 AVG. Pitchers are getting him to swing-and-miss on four-seam fastballs (17% SwStr%) while secondaries are causing additional issues (slider: 26% SwStr%, change: 35% SwStr%). He’s going to have a short career if he can’t hit fastballs.

Paul DeJong (8) and Adam Frazier (7): You know the options are limited when Frazier and DeJong join the most-added lists.

Yoán Moncada (6): Strong-side platoon bat who is batting .237/.328/.373  in the second half. And not hurt … yet.

Daylen Lile (6): The 22-year-old rookie is playing and seems to be breaking out with a .635 OPS in the first half and .784 OPS in the second half. All the gains are BABIP driven (.258 BABIP to .355 BABIP) with his strikeouts up (14% K% to 20% K%) and walks down (6% to 5%).

Miguel Andujar (5): Starting every day in the cleanup spot for a team that plays in a high school-sized field. Solid add.

Evan Carter (5): Carter gets outfield starts with Adolis Garcia on the IL. While he might not be in a platoon, he should be (.309 OPS vRHP in ’25, .262 OPS for his career). He’s not going to be a positive in power or batting average, but he does have 13 SB.

I’ve been dismissive of Carter, but he’s showing some signs of improvement with a career-low strikeout rate (19% K%) and career-high max exit velocity (111 mph).

Miguel Vargas (5): Off the IL and back on fantasy rosters.

Brett Baty (5): Started in eight of the last nine games with a 109 OPS+. It’s tough to determine who is starting at second and third base since Baty is sharing time with Mark Vientos (88 OPS+) and Ronny Mauricio (95 OPS+).

Victor Robles (5):

Gabriel Moreno (5): On a rehab assignment and should be joining the major league team soon.

Miguel Rojas (5): One of the few available Dodger options for their four games in Colorado.

Starters

Nolan McLean (11): Deserves all the love after his first start with 8 K and 0 ER over 5 IP. There are a couple of issues. The first is the excessive walks (4.0 BB/9 in the minors, 6.8 BB/9 in the majors). The STUPH models picked up on this, with both giving him below-average overall grades (high Stuff, low command).

Cristian Javier (11): During his rehab, he posted just as many walks as strikeouts (15). Over the first two starts, his 3.38 ERA looks great, but his ERA estimators point to a 4.50 ERA talent. His STUPH grades think he’s worse (4.91 bot ERA).

Monitor his groundball rate. An 18% GB% points to a 1.9 HR/9. He’s not even limiting hard contact (50% HardHit%).

With so few options, he’s worth adding, but closely monitor his production.

Taijuan Walker (6): It’s nearing the point that Walker is going to be an anchor for the postseason rotation.

Yoendrys Gómez (6): After 12 relief appearances, he’s started twice with a 3.60 ERA (4.74 xFIP), 1.00 WHIP, and 9.0 K/9. He’s thrown six different pitches this year that all grade out as average. He needs the large pitch mix to navigate a lineup.

Bryce Elder (5): The career 4.78 ERA “talent” faced the White Sox this week and rewarded his fantasy managers with 8 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, and 3 K in 4 IP. Bryce Elder and his career 4.78 ERA and 1.40 WHIP are never the answer.

Luis Morales (5): Let’s start with two stats: 1.86 ERA and 8.4 K/9. Not bad. Even add in a 3.73 FIP. Then there is the 7.5 BB/9, 1.66 WHIP, 4.67 botERA, and 5.93 xFIP. Just the 1.66 WHIP did as much ratio damage as a 6.46 ERA.

Relievers

Victor Vodnik (6): Fantasy managers with a Rockies closer …

… and after a three Save week …

Bryan Abreu (5): Great reliever who is now the closer on a good team. Added for top dollar in leagues where he was not already rostered.

 

Players Added in NFBC High Stakes Leagues
Name Leagues Added Max Winning Bid Min Winning Bid
Nolan McLean 11 145 15
Cristian Javier 11 64 3
Dylan Beavers 10 39 1
Colby Thomas 10 37 3
Paul DeJong 8 18 1
Adam Frazier 7 5 1
Victor Vodnik 6 12 5
Taijuan Walker 6 10 1
Yoan Moncada 6 9 1
Yoendrys Gomez 6 8 1
Daylen Lile 6 4 2
Bryan Abreu 5 72 31
Miguel Andujar 5 65 3
Evan Carter 5 22 6
Miguel Vargas 5 20 1
Brett Baty 5 16 1
Victor Robles 5 15 1
Gabriel Moreno 5 9 1
Bryce Elder 5 6 1
Luis Morales 5 4 1
Miguel Rojas 5 3 2
Will Vest 4 15 3
Ronny Simon 4 12 1
Braxton Ashcraft 4 11 3
Mick Abel 4 11 3
Caleb Durbin 4 9 4
Shawn Armstrong 4 8 1
Michael Lorenzen 4 7 3
Ramon Urias 4 6 1
Ian Seymour 4 4 1
JP Sears 4 3 1
Jake Meyers 4 3 2
Aaron Ashby 4 3 1

Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are the winning bids in the two 15-team Tout Wars leagues.

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman:

7:31
mitch: yoendrys gomez looked great against detroit. he’s lined up for a two step. thoughts on him?

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not going to start him for the two-step, but I don’t mind adding him in case it goes great.

7:33
Guest: Is Ranger Suarez SEA/@WAS worth the start in a 12 team roto league if I could just sub in Weaver or Vest in his place? I have needs for Ws most but don’t want more ratio damage either.

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FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 20)

Erik Williams-Imagn Images
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »


Big Kid Adds (Week 19)


Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Kyle Karros (11): The further I got into my FAAB last Sunday, the more I started liking the 23-year-old third baseman. Here are his Steamer600 comps.

If given full-time plate appearances, all the players listed can be 15-team contributors.

Karros’s main trait is putting the ball in play and should post a decent batting average with the possibility of double-digit stolen bases and home runs over a full season. The home runs could even increase if he were to keep the ball off the ground (47% GB%).

C.J. Kayfus (8): Eight starts in 10 games since being promoted, while being a solid hitter (.258/.303/.452, 1 HR, 1 SB). He is struggling to make contact (30% K%), especially with normal four-seam fastballs (16% SwStr%). Of the 555 batters who have seen 25 or more four-seamers this season, it’s the 41st highest value.

JJ Bleday (8):  A .588 BABIP since his last callup makes him seem like he’s on fire (.444/.483/.741). The problem is that he started in just six of the last 10 games. He is a 20 HR hitter, while not stealing bases and dragging down a team’s batting average.

Blaze Alexander (7): Playing (14 straight starts), hitting (.264/.362/.462, 4 HR 2 SB in 91 PA), and has seven games this week with four in Colorado.

Romy Gonzalez (6): I was a little surprised to see Gonzalez on the list of adds with no lefties on the schedule. So far this week, he started against two righties, going three for eight (all singles). To be fantasy relevant, he needs to be on the field.

Brooks Baldwin (6): Baldwin is off the IL and playing (10 starts in 11 games). While not hitting for batting average (.222), he does have 7 HR and 4 SB. He makes a nice injury replacement since he’s qualified at outfield, second, third, and short.

Mike Yastrzemski (5): Strong-side platoon bat who faces five righties this week. So far with the Royals, he’s batting .188/.300/.469 with 2 HR.

Gabriel Arias (5): Back to starting with the Guardians (13 straight starts). While a .236 AVG (32% K%) is a bit of a drain, he does have 9 HR and 4 SB in 342 PA. Additionally, he’s qualified at three positions (2B, SS, 3B).

Darell Hernaiz (5): Starting while Jacob Wilson is on the IL (possibly returning next week). While struggling with a .190 BABIP, he does have 2 HR and 1 SB in 56 PA. He’s not overmatched with a 7% K% (5% SwStr%). He might be trading weak contact (52% GB%, 34% HardHit%) for the contact.

Victor Robles (5): Robles is on his way back from the IL (shoulder). My worry with Robles is that he might end up on the short side of a platoon with Dominic Canzone.

Name: Career OPS vs LHP, vs RHP
Robles: .722, .675
Canzone: .495, .732

Additionally, Canzone has been solid with a 125 wRC+ while Robles sported a 76 wRC+ before going on the IL.

Curtis Mead (5): The #9 hitter for the White Sox. With a career 81 wRC+. Who might reach double-digit steals and home runs in a full season? What does he do?

Starters

Cade Cavalli (11): Every part of his profile (8.7 K/9, 53% GB%, 3.86 ERA, 3.93 xFIP) looks great except the walks (3.9 BB/9). The walks have him with a 1.50 WHIP, which is doing as much ratio damage in a roto league as a 5.52 ERA. His 38% Ball% is the equivalent of a 4.0 BB/9. He’s always had issues with walks with a 4.4 BB/9 throughout the minors.

Cavalli is a fine addition in point leagues or for teams that don’t care about their WHIP.

Luis Gil (10): Like Cavalli, Gil struggles with walks (career 4.8 BB/9), and there are no signs of them improving this year (5.2 BB/9, 38% Ball% for equiv 4.0 B/9). If Gil hadn’t run a .237 BABIP last season, he’s likely not on anyone’s radar. In the second half, when he posted just a .262 BABIP, he had an unremarkable 1.42 WHIP and 4.20 ERA. In two starts this year, it’s a 7.27 ERA (4.63 xFIP) and 1.85 WHIP.

Additionally, his results could even get worse if his home runs regress upward. Normally, pitchers with a 35% GB% (career) have a 1.4 HR/9, not the 1.1 HR/9 that Gil has posted.

Hurston Waldrep (10): Finally, a pitcher I can get behind. The 1.54 ERA won’t last (0.0 HR/9, .226 BABIP, 80% LOB%), but so far he looks to be a high-3.00 ERA talent.

He’s got two amazing pitches. A splitter with a 27% SwStr% (STUPH models are off the charts) and a sinker with an 11% SwStr% and 50% GB%.

Shane Smith (6): Without a cupcake schedule, I was surprised to see the Shane Smith love. He’s been fine this year with a 4.01 ERA (4.41 xFIP), 1.28 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9. But just 3 Wins in 21 starts. There are worse options.

Troy Melton (6): Speculation came out late during the weekend that Melton might return to the rotation and start on Wednesday. He did start going 5 IP with 0 ER and 6 K. The only question now is if he’ll stay in the rotation or go back to the bullpen. As a starter this season, he posted a 3.18 ERA (3.04 xFIP), 9.5 K/9, and 0.88 WHIP.

Jason Alexander (6):  While a solid starter (2.83 ERA, 4.15 xFIP, 1.19 WHIP, 6.9 K/9), he could be losing his rotation spot with Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier coming off the IL.

Brandon Walter (5): On the IL with an elbow injury. He was great in his nine starts (3.35 ERA, 3.09 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9)

Relievers

Justin Topa (7): While Topa isn’t the most talented reliever (3.50 ERA to 3.75 ERA talent), every sign points to him being the Twins closer.

Riley O’Brien (7): The 30-year-old righty was added in the hope JoJo Romero can’t hold the closer’s job. The deal is, Romero and O’Brien have posted similar stats this season.

Name: ERA, xFIP, K%
O’Brien: 1.69, 3.68, 23%
Romero: 2.36, 3.96, 23%

David Bednar (5): Was a good closer, then became a good setup man, and now he’s a good closer again.

 

Players Added In NFBC High Stakes Leagues
Name Leagues Added Max Winning Bid Min Winning Bid
Cade Cavalli 11 55 3
Kyle Karros 11 25 1
Luis Gil 10 205 38
Hurston Waldrep 10 36 2
CJ Kayfus 8 64 2
JJ Bleday 8 12 1
Blaze Alexander 7 29 5
Justin Topa 7 23 3
Riley O’Brien 7 17 1
Shane Smith 6 18 1
Romy Gonzalez 6 14 1
Brooks Baldwin 6 14 3
Troy Melton 6 7 1
Jason Alexander 6 5 2
David Bednar 5 145 38
Mike Yastrzemski 5 35 1
Brandon Walter 5 13 1
Gabriel Arias 5 11 1
Darell Hernaiz 5 9 2
Victor Robles 5 9 2
Curtis Mead 5 4 1
Chris Sale 4 140 47
Jordan Walker 4 95 1
Phil Maton 4 44 16
J.T. Ginn 4 31 3
Nick Martinez 4 29 3
Miguel Andujar 4 16 1
Elvis Alvarado 4 14 1
Tylor Megill 4 13 1
Tanner Scott 4 12 2
Kai-Wei Teng 4 2 1

 


Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman:

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are the winning bids in the two 15-team Tout War redraft leagues.

7:32
The Batman: I have Adley, C. Kelly, and Drake Baldwin in a two catcher, 12 team league. I’d like to clear one of the slots for pitching, and there are some good options available. Leaning cutting Adley. Is that crazy?

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Not at all.

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: One note, I’ve noticed a huge decline in the quality of content as sites switch over to football. Ground can be made up.

Read the rest of this entry »


FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 19)


Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Batters

Warming Bernabel: The dream continues (.354/.367/.688, 3 HR). Where his talent settles, nobody knows.

Isaac Collins: Five-category contributor (7 HR, 13 SB, .290 AVG in 307 PA).

Jakob Marsee: Is a 1.378 OPS good? While the batting will regress, he could be a great source of steals (5 SB so far, 47 SB in AAA) while not being a drain on power and batting average.

Luke Keaschall: Unstoppable in the majors with a 1.169 OPS and 5 SB in 39 PA.

Wenceel Pérez: (possible foot injury) Solid bat with 9 HR, 6 SB, and .259 AVG in 210 PA. Ten straight starts.

Lenyn Sosa: Leaned into pull flyballs and he has 13 HR (10 pulled) with a .276 AVG while qualified at three positions.

Blake Perkins: Small improvements have him batting .276.333/.534 with 3 HR and 3 SB in 63 PA.

Jesús Sánchez: Strong-side platoon bat hitting .276/.323/.414. With Houston, he might be sacrificing power for more contact. Or it could be a small sample.

Ernie Clement: Solid .287 AVG and qualified at all four infield positions.

Daulton Varsho: Hitting .241/.273/.607 with 11 HR on the season while sitting against most lefties.

Kyle Manzardo: Hits home runs (18 HR) from the strong side of a DH platoon.

Matt Wallner: Hit 16 HR in 274 PA and nothing else (0 SB, .218 AVG).

Daniel Schneemann: Strong-side platoon bat with 10 HR and 8 SB on the season.

Brooks Lee: The Twins’ starting shortstop (.249/.291/.377, 11 HR in 358 PA)

Kody Clemens: Eleven straight starts, including one against a lefty. A power-only bat with 13 HR in 233 PA.

Coby Mayo: Seven straight starts while batting .218/.297/.371 with 4 HR in 138 PA.

Ryan Mountcastle: Off the IL and started in both games. During his AAA rehab, he hit .387/.486/.806 with 3 HR in 37 PA. Track the playing time.

Romy Gonzalez: Starts against all lefties and a few righties. Great (.305/.345/.567, 8 HR, 4 SB) when he plays.

Andrew Benintendi: Providing power (14 HR in 347 PA) and not much else.

Casey Schmitt: Some power (7 HR in 197 PA) but not much else.

C.J. Kayfus: Five starts in six games since being promoted. He is struggling a bit (38% K%) with sinkers being the only pitch he can hit. His 38% K% and .462 BABIP battle it out to see where his talent stabilizes.

Alex Freeland: Continues to play with Tommy Edman hurt. So far in 27 PA, no extra-base hits or stolen bases. And a 30% K%. I have some worries about his talent and playing time.

JJ Bleday: In 17 PA since being promoted, he’s batting .529/.529/1.000 with 2 HR. I’m sure the .700 BABIP is sustainable.

Joey Loperfido: Dealing with a knee injury. In 50 PA, he’s taking advantage of his .500 BABIP. His playing time could decline once Springer comes off the IL.

Nathan Lukes: He occasionally will sneak in a start against lefties, but a strong-side platoon bat. Middling stats (10 HR, 1 SB, .250 AVG).

Liover Peguero: Started in seven of the last 10 games. Batting .244/.311/.561 with 4 HR this season.

Tyler Locklear: Continues to struggle to make contact (39% K%, .154 AVG). Might not be enough time for him to turn it around.

Spencer Horwitz: Strong-side platoon bat with no carrying tool.

Jordan Lawlar: Remains on the IL. In his previous 56 PA, he struggled with a 36% K% and .136 OPS. And now he’s recovering from an injury. Pass on him in ’25.

Darell Hernaiz: Showing both power (.258 ISO, 2 HR) and contact rate (0% K%) while starting at shortstop with Wilson on the IL. Play week to week.

Catchers

Kyle Higashioka: Catcher with 7 HR and a .258 AVG is solid.

Hitting Prospects

Dylan Beavers: In AAA, the 23-year-old outfielder is batting .309/.425/.536 with 18 HR and 22 SB in 389 PA.

Samuel Basallo: In AAA, the 20-year-old catcher is batting .277/.384/.613 with 23 HR and 0 SB in 302 PA.

Carson Benge: Across two minor league levels (A+, AA), the 22-year-old outfielder is batting .313/.420/.523 with 12 HR and 19 SB in 407 PA.

Kevin McGonigle: Across three minor league levels (A, A+, AA), the 20-year-old shortstop is batting .332/.427/.571 with 9 HR and 6 SB in 281 PA.

JJ Wetherholt: Across two minor league levels (AA, AAA), the 20-year-old shortstop is batting .305/.419/.515 with 13 HR and 16 SB in 360 PA.

Leo De Vries: In High-A ball, the 18-year-old shortstop is batting .246/.354/.405 with 8 HR and 9 SB in 402 PA.

 

CBS Hitter Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Change
Ernie Clement 3B  TOR 39% 47% 8%
Kyle Manzardo DH  CLE 37% 40% 3%
Luke Keaschall 2B  MIN 36% 53% 17%
Jordan Lawlar 2B  ARI 32% 34% 2%
Samuel Basallo C  BAL 32% 34% 2%
Daulton Varsho CF  TOR 27% 35% 8%
Coby Mayo 1B  BAL 27% 29% 2%
Jesus Sanchez LF  HOU 24% 29% 5%
Brooks Lee 3B  MIN 23% 25% 2%
Matt Wallner RF  MIN 21% 26% 5%
JJ Wetherholt 2B  STL 21% 25% 4%
Lenyn Sosa 2B  CHW 19% 36% 17%
Andrew Benintendi LF  CHW 19% 21% 2%
Leo De Vries SS  ATH 19% 21% 2%
Romy Gonzalez 1B  BOS 18% 22% 4%
Ryan Mountcastle 1B  BAL 17% 19% 2%
Warming Bernabel 1B  COL 16% 50% 34%
Isaac Collins LF  MIL 16% 27% 11%
Kevin McGonigle SS  DET 16% 18% 2%
Tyler Locklear 1B  ARI 15% 21% 6%
Spencer Horwitz 1B  PIT 12% 22% 10%
Wenceel Perez RF  DET 11% 16% 5%
C.J. Kayfus RF  CLE 10% 13% 3%
Alex Freeland 3B  LAD 10% 11% 1%
Kyle Higashioka C  TEX 9% 11% 2%
J.J. Bleday CF  ATH 8% 12% 4%
Joey Loperfido LF  TOR 7% 10% 3%
Daniel Schneemann 2B  CLE 7% 9% 2%
Dylan Beavers OF  BAL 6% 12% 6%
Nathan Lukes RF  TOR 6% 11% 5%
Kody Clemens 2B  MIN 6% 8% 2%
Carson Benge CF  NYM 5% 7% 2%
Jakob Marsee CF  MIA 4% 29% 25%
Casey Schmitt 2B  SF 4% 6% 2%
Blake Perkins CF  MIL 2% 7% 5%
Liover Peguero SS  PIT 1% 5% 4%
Darell Hernaiz SS  ATH 1% 4% 3%

 

Starters

Cade Cavalli: Unless there is an injury stash available on the wire, Calvalli might be the last starting pitching prospect to roster. He shoved in his debut with 6 K, 1 BB, and 0 ER in 4 IP (88 pitches).

Jacob Lopez: After struggling in July (5.30 ERA, 4.35 xFIP), he has been amazing in two August starts (0.00 ERA, 2.40 xFIP). As a starter, he projects to be a low-4.00 ERA arm.

Joey Wentz: His value will jump or tank depending on how his Sunday start goes against Miami. He found the strike zone (2.7 BB/9) since joining the Braves and has a 3.09 ERA (3.43 xFIP) and 0.90 WHIP.

Joey Cantillo: Solid besides the walks. His 1.44 WHIP has done as much ratio damage as a 5.16 ERA. Fine in points leagues where WHIP is not an issue.

Mike Burrows: After a 10-game stretch with a 3.08 ERA (3.59 WHIP), he got lit up on Tuesday by allowing 6 ER in 4 IP. I believe he’s one of the better options, especially as he develops his sinker.

Jose Quintana: Since the break, he’s taking a step forward by throwing more strikes in the season’s second half (1H: 3.9 BB/9, 2H: 1.6 BB/9). If he keeps it up, he could settle into being a 4.00 ERA talent.

Taijuan Walker: Keeps chugging along, but he could lose his job next week when Nola comes off the IL.

Chris Paddack: A mid-4.00 ERA talent facing the White Sox and Twins next week.

Aaron Civale: Settled into being a steady 4.50 ERA arm. I feel this might be too low with his decent ranking over the last two weeks. I’m ranking off the long record of being a mediocre talent.

Jason Alexander: He’ll start for Houston on Sunday, but it’s not clear if he’s still in the rotation after that game. As for his talent, his 55% GB% helps hide some warts, especially his 3.5 BB/9. He’ll run high a BABIP because the high groundball rate and walks have led to a 1.32 WHIP (eqiv of a 4.46 ERA). Not the worst option.

Cade Povich: The underlying numbers (3.94 xFIP) point to a better pitcher than the results (5.25 ERA) show. He keeps getting hit around (1.5 HR/9, .338 BABIP).

Davis Martin: Not sure why he’s in demand. It might be the two-week start he’s in the middle of right now.

Logan Allen로건: Nothing positive here with a 1.37 WHIP that’s doing as much ratio damage as a 4.75 ERA. He faces Miami and Atlanta next week.

Carson Whisenhunt: His only positive trait is the changeup (16% SwStr%, 60 BotOvr, 102 Pitching+). He needs to start throwing strikes. His 41% Ball% points to a 12% BB% and high-4.00’s ERA. At least he’s not Falter.

Ryan Bergert: His struggles with walks (4.4 BB/9) continue, but he’s got that 2.83 ERA (4.89 xFIP). He has been lucky (0.9 HR/9, .204 BABIP, 82% LOB%) in all aspects of his game. His luck could run out at any moment.

Hurston Waldrep: He found the strike zone with just one walk on Saturday over 6 IP. This season, he posted a 4.9 BB/9 in AAA and 10.3 BB/9 in ’24. Watch from afar until his talent stabilizes.

Bailey Falter: A solid 5.00 talent with starts against the Nationals and White Sox next week.

Miles Mikolas: Two starts against the Rockies and Yankees for the 5.00 ERA talent.

Cal Quantrill: The 5.00 ERA talent is in the middle of a two-start week (vs HOU, at ATL). The first game did not go well (4 IP, 7 ER, 2 HR, 3 BB, 2 SO).

Cristian Javier: The 28-year-old righty is supposed to debut next week. It’ll be fine to roster him, but don’t start him. In 14 IP during his rehab, he has allowed 15 BB. I have zero expectations from him.

Pitching Prospects

Jonah Tong: In AA, the 22-year-old righty posted a 1.58 ERA (2.09 xFIP), 0.94 WHIP, and 14.3 K/9 in 97 IP.

CBS Starting Pitcher Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Change
Jacob Lopez SP  ATH 38% 47% 9%
Jose Quintana SP  MIL 37% 39% 2%
Bailey Falter SP  KC 30% 34% 4%
Chris Paddack SP  DET 26% 43% 17%
Logan Taylor Allen SP  CLE 19% 24% 5%
Mike Burrows SP  PIT 18% 24% 6%
Carson Whisenhunt P  SF 18% 24% 6%
Joey Cantillo RP  CLE 18% 20% 2%
Cristian Javier SP  HOU 17% 25% 8%
Aaron Civale SP  CHW 15% 24% 9%
Jonah Tong SP  NYM 14% 16% 2%
Miles Mikolas SP  STL 12% 14% 2%
Joey Wentz RP  ATL 11% 18% 7%
Hurston Waldrep RP  ATL 10% 14% 4%
Davis Martin SP  CHW 8% 10% 2%
Cade Cavalli SP  WAS 7% 18% 11%
Taijuan Walker SP  PHI 7% 11% 4%
Cade Povich SP  BAL 7% 9% 2%
Ryan Bergert SP  KC 6% 9% 3%
Cal Quantrill SP  MIA 5% 8% 3%
Jason Alexander SP  HOU 1% 4% 3%

 

Last Two-Week Starting Pitcher Valuations
Name IP BotERA Pitching+ERA SwStr% ERA FBv ERA SIERA xFIP AVG
Cade Cavalli 4.1 3.79 3.08 1.76 3.55 2.34 2.07 2.77
Aaron Civale 14.2 4.30 4.12 4.06 4.23 2.76 2.63 3.69
Mike Burrows 10.2 3.18 3.61 4.01 3.77 4.00 3.63 3.70
Jacob Lopez 17.0 2.92 4.23 4.04 4.47 3.47 3.35 3.75
Chris Paddack 10.0 2.88 3.62 4.33 4.07 4.34 3.76 3.83
Jason Alexander 10.2 4.99 4.37 4.70 4.37 2.74 2.41 3.93
Joey Cantillo 9.2 4.45 4.53 3.65 4.54 3.87 3.21 4.04
Miles Mikolas 9.0 3.60 3.91 4.41 3.98 4.34 4.11 4.06
Cade Povich 5.2 4.51 4.14 4.93 4.29 3.06 3.56 4.08
Davis Martin 10.2 4.86 5.09 3.44 3.98 3.80 3.39 4.09
Joey Wentz 12.0 3.74 4.99 3.93 4.15 4.29 4.07 4.20
Hurston Waldrep 5.2 3.64 4.85 3.80 4.42 4.61 4.26
Jose Quintana 16.0 5.08 4.63 5.08 4.48 4.19 4.02 4.58
Taijuan Walker 11.0 4.35 4.09 5.40 4.34 4.90 4.98 4.67
Logan Allen 12.0 4.59 4.83 4.60 4.48 4.85 4.74 4.68
Ryan Bergert 9.2 3.97 4.23 4.32 4.15 6.04 5.75 4.74
Carson Whisenhunt 10.1 4.90 5.45 5.39 4.24 4.98 5.10 5.01
Cal Quantrill 9.1 4.96 4.91 4.64 3.93 6.31 6.38 5.19
Bailey Falter 9.0 4.95 5.47 5.53 4.30 7.03 6.45 5.62

 

Relievers

Dennis Santana: Average reliever who is the closer.

Keegan Akin: Average reliever who is now the closer.

Jose Ferrer: Below-average reliever who is the closer.

Justin Topa: Below-average reliever who is the closer.

Phil Maton: Good reliever who could now be the closer. At least he’s in a committee.

Sean Newcomb: Good reliever who is most likely the closer

Alex Vesia: Good reliever who is in a closer committee.

JoJo Romero: Average reliever in a closer committee.

Calvin Faucher: Average reliever who is sharing the closer role.

Cole Sands: Good reliever who might have lost his closer’s role.

Riley O’Brien: Average reliever in a closer committee.

Ben Casparius: Average reliever who is in a closer committee.

Michael Kelly: Below-average reliever who is probably the backup closer.

Garrett Whitlock: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Hunter Gaddis: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Jeremiah Estrada: Good reliever who is a few steps away from closing.

CBS Relief Pitcher Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Change
Dennis Santana RP  PIT 34% 38% 4%
Alex Vesia RP  LAD 24% 27% 3%
Jeremiah Estrada RP  SD 20% 22% 2%
JoJo Romero RP  STL 16% 40% 24%
Phil Maton RP  TEX 14% 21% 7%
Garrett Whitlock RP  BOS 14% 16% 2%
Calvin Faucher RP  MIA 13% 28% 15%
Ben Casparius RP  LAD 12% 14% 2%
Hunter Gaddis RP  CLE 10% 15% 5%
Cole Sands RP  MIN 8% 16% 8%
Jose Ferrer RP  WAS 8% 13% 5%
Keegan Akin RP  BAL 2% 6% 4%
Sean Newcomb RP  ATH 2% 4% 2%
Riley O’Brien RP  STL 2% 4% 2%
Michael Kelly RP  ATH 1% 3% 2%
Justin Topa RP  MIN 0% 3% 3%

Beat the Shift Podcast – Auction Championship Episode w/ Mike Mager

The Auction Championship episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Mike Mager

Strategy Section

  • NFBC Strategy
    • What sets the NFBC apart from others?
    • Key components to winning
    • Evaluating players BEFORE looking at projections
    • Which is more important – the draft or in-season play?
    • What goes into lineup setting?
    • How do you prevent overthinking decisions?
    • Are there certain category statistics that you need to solidify early in the year?
    • Are there certain category statistics that you can wait on and pick up in-season?
    • How does strategy change year to year?
    • Auction planning
    • Today’s game
      • Pitching strategy in today’s game
      • Are there sleepers anymore?
  • Waiver Wire / FAAB
    • Interaction with the current week’s lineup setting
    • Putting in the time
  • Fantasy partnership
    • What makes a successful fantasy partnership?
    • Splitting up tasks

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Buy/Sell/Hold

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update

 

Read the rest of this entry »


Big Kid Adds (Week 18)


Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Jakob Marsee (11): Added for his playing time (Marlins’ centerfielder) and ability to steal bases (51 SB in ’24, 47 in ’25). An .833 BABIP and 29% BB% makes his current slash line look insane (.500/.647/1.167)

Tyler Locklear (10): I’m not sure Locklear is an improvement over other waiver wire first basemen. Here are his Steamer600 comps.

If a manager is eyeing Curtis Mead, then maybe Locklear should be on their radar.

Eli White (9): The 31-year-old White has six straight starts with Acuna on the IL. White has been a fine injury replacement with 7 HR, 7 SB, and a .254 AVG in 222 PA. I wonder if most of his demand came from his two-homer race track game on Sunday.

Jonny DeLuca (8): For any Ray, dissecting the playing time is the most important factor. DeLuca has started in eight of 11 games since coming off the IL. He sat against three righties (started against five righties).

Over his three major league seasons, he has hit .236/.291/.353 (84 wRC+) with 8 HR and 23 SB in 463 PA. While the stolen bases would be helpful in fantasy, he needs to continue hitting and play every game to become fantasy-relevant.

Blake Perkins (7): The 28-year-old outfielder is in his third major league season. In 656 PA, he has 12 HR and 31 SB with a .235 AVG (similar to DeLuca). A speedster with non-zero power and some contact issues. Since Jackson Chourio got hurt, Perkins started five straight in centerfield.

For a player with his profile, he needs to play all the time to get the required Runs and RBI. Check in on his playing time once Chourio returns.

Joey Loperfido (6): Since being called up, the 26-year-old is batting .389/.436/.542 (.500 BABIP) with 3 HR and 1 SB in 79 PA. I found two changes from last year’s .614 OPS campaign. First, he’s increased his Contact% from 67% to 73%. Second, he cut his swinging-strike rate against sliders from 21% to 11%.

The Jays have noticed and started him in nine of the last 10 games. Over a full season, he projects for 15 HR, 10 SB, and a .240 AVG. Streaming option at best.

Brooks Lee (6): With Correa traded away, Lee has started every game at shortstop.  Over a full season, he projects for 15 HR, 6 SB, and a .240 AVG. Almost the same as Loperfido. Another streaming option.

Nolan Gorman (6): Gorman started in five of the last six games as he fills in for Nolan Arenado. Gorman has been a solid source of power (10 HR in 244 PA) but a drag in speed (1 SB) and a .224 AVG. Short-term fill-in.

Daniel Schneemann (6): The 28-year-old middle infielder has been on a hot streak ( .364/.378/.705 , 1 HR, 2 SB) since the break, driven by a .394 BABIP.

Casey Schmitt (6): Starts five games and then sits for one or two. Showing signs of 20 HR power (6 HR in 189 PA). Contact% and avgEV are at career highs. Good real-life hitter.

Warming Bernabel (5): Starting to cool down (in a 2 for 12 stretch), but still has a sexy triple slash line: .400/.415/.775 (.394 BABIP). He’s hacking at everything (1 BB in 41 PA), so pitchers aren’t giving him anything to hit. Regression comes, but when will his talent stabilize?

Abraham Toro (5): Ever since Mayer (wrist) went on the IL, Toro started all 11 games. The 28-year-old is another 15 HR and .250 AVG talent with no upside. A bench streamer at best.

Ty France (5): France went from starting most days in Minnesota to being an unrosterable part-time DH in Toronto.

Starters

Carson Whisenhunt (9): The 24-year-old lefty is showing no signs of being a major league pitcher. His 7% K%-BB% is not good. The four closest qualified pitchers are Bailey Falter, Mitchell Parker, Andre Pallante, and Jake Irvin.

His results, STUPH, and projections point to a high-4.00 ERA talent with a ratio-killing WHIP. I guess the matchup against Washington is enticing.

Jameson Taillon (6): Injury stash for a pitcher with a 4.44 ERA (4.30 xFIP), 1.11 WHIP, and 7.0 K/9.

Davis Martin (6): Martin’s opponents are decent for the next two weeks (at SEA, vs CLE, at KC). All season-long indicators (projections, STUPH, results) point to him being a low-4.00 ERA talent.

One issue, since coming off the IL (forearm), he’s lacked control with a 5.9 BB/9 and a 39% Ball% (equivalent of 4.2 BB/9). I understand teams need to take a chance, and this is a big one.

Logan Henderson (5): Finally back in the rotation with Misiorowski on the IL. The excitement has quelled a bit on Henderson with K%-BB% in AAA dropping from 25% to 17% between stints. Our two STUPH both think he’s the same pitcher. Maybe he got bored in AAA.

Aaron Civale (5): Since the break, he’s thrown three shutouts with a 10.4 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, and 50% GB% (2.45 xFIP).  The obvious improvement is that he’s attacking the strike zone. Before this stretch, he had a 3.8 BB/9. Additionally, he’s upped his curveball (12% SwStr%, highest among his pitches) usage from 17% to 24%.

His STUPH grades see an improvement.

STUPH: 1H, 2H
BotOverall: 39, 47
Pitching+: 91, 105

They point to a league-average pitcher, and that has some fantasy value.

Taj Bradley (5): Now in AAA, hopefully finding where the strikeouts went. Each season, his strikeouts have dropped from 11.1 K/9 to 10.0 K/9 to 7.7 K/9. And this season, he has a career-high 3.6 BB/9. I’m not sure what people are hoping for? He’s never been a league-average pitcher.

Tomoyuki Sugano (5): I’m always interested in why subpar pitchers are added. With Sugano, managers are likely chasing his next two starts  (vs ATH, vs SEA). He’s been horrible this season with a 4.42 ERA (4.64 xFIP), 1.32 WHIP, and just a 6.0 K/9. Desperate teams could be better off with a well-placed middle reliever option.

Kai-Wei Teng (5): The 26-year-old righty struggled in his first MLB action this year, allowing 5 ER in 3 IP with 5 K, 3 BB, 1 HBP, and 4 H. His struggles center around walking too many batters. In his combined 14 MLB innings, he has a 6.9 BB/9. His 41% Ball% over that stretch is equivalent to 5.4 BB/9. Here are his last four minor league walk rates.

Season: BB/9
2022: 5.6
2023: 4.8
2024: 5.2
2025: 3.5

Teng has shown the ability to miss bats. Here is how his pitches performed in AAA.

Everything except his sinker is a legit swing-and-miss pitch.

To be fantasy-relevant, he needs to find the plate.

Relievers

Cole Sands (10), JoJo Romero (9), Calvin Faucher (8), Keegan Akin (7), Sean Newcomb (7), Victor Vodnik (6): This week’s reliever carousel has been covered in detail by every publication and podcast. I have nothing to add.

 

Most Added Player in NFBC High Stake Leagues
Name Leagues Max Winning Bid Min Winning Bid
Jakob Marsee 11 59 21
Cole Sands 10 71 8
Tyler Locklear 10 51 1
JoJo Romero 9 69 12
Carson Whisenhunt 9 32 1
Eli White 9 11 1
Calvin Faucher 8 40 17
Jonny DeLuca 8 9 2
Keegan Akin 7 36 2
Sean Newcomb 7 21 4
Blake Perkins 7 20 4
Joey Loperfido 6 42 6
Brooks Lee 6 37 7
Jameson Taillon 6 27 5
Nolan Gorman 6 27 4
Victor Vodnik 6 11 1
Daniel Schneemann 6 10 1
Davis Martin 6 8 2
Casey Schmitt 6 7 1
Warming Bernabel 5 203 8
Logan Henderson 5 51 22
Aaron Civale 5 22 5
Taj Bradley 5 21 1
Tomoyuki Sugano 5 12 2
Abraham Toro 5 5 1
Ty France 5 2 1
Kai-Wei Teng 5 2 1
Dennis Santana 4 71 1
Javier Baez 4 52 3
Joey Wentz 4 22 5
Alex Freeland 4 15 4
Phil Maton 4 11 1
Justin Wrobleski 4 10 3
Cal Quantrill 4 9 3
Ryan Bergert 4 9 1
Anthony DeSclafani 4 9 1
Freddy Fermin 4 8 1
Alek Thomas 4 7 2
Miles Mikolas 4 5 1