Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• The Cubs and Cardinals play in the MLB London Series next weekend which means they’re both off on Friday for travel. The last time teams played in England, the Yankees and Red Sox combined for 50 total runs across two games. The dimensions of London Stadium are particularly small — it would be the shortest center field fence in the majors — so avoiding the four pitchers scheduled to start this series would be prudent.
• They aren’t the only team with a weird travel schedule next week. The Nationals and Diamondbacks are scheduled to play a make-up game on Thursday. That means Arizona will play in Milwaukee to start the week, head to Washington for a single game, and then fly all the way across the country to San Francisco for their weekend series.
• Teams with more traditionally tough schedules include the Angels, Braves, and Dodgers. Shohei Ohtani manages to avoid pitching in Coors Field but he still has to face the Dodgers offense in his start next week. Based on his struggles recently, you’re probably better off sitting Spencer Strider in both of his starts next week. Atlanta plays in a couple of hitter friendly venues against teams who are playing particularly well recently.
• I’ve only been calculating these matchup scores for a few weeks now, but the Reds somehow managed to pull a zero in their series against the Braves. That’s pretty incredible. Just for reference, that means they’re facing the best road offense and the best offense over the last two weeks in the worst venue for home runs in the majors.
• Teams with easier schedules include the Pirates, Tigers, and Twins. All of Minnesota’s rotation has been a must-start for practically the entire season, but they’ve all got pretty cushy matchups next week. Detroit’s and Pittsburgh’s rotations are a little hit-or-miss, but there are some key contributors who should be easy starts next week.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Tyler Glasnow
• Gerrit Cole
• Pablo López
• George Kirby
• José Berríos
• Garrett Whitlock
• Merrill Kelly
• Michael Wacha
• Alex Cobb
• Framber Valdez
• Max Scherzer
• Corbin Burnes
• Clayton Kershaw
• Bailey Ober
• Johan Oviedo
• Ranger Suárez
• Aaron Civale
• Michael Lorenzen

Keeping track of the machinations of 30 major league bullpens is pretty tricky. In standard leagues, it’s hard enough trying to discern which relievers are earning save opportunities, especially since more and more teams are using a committee approach in the ninth inning. In Ottoneu, with both saves and holds earning points, that search for high leverage relievers becomes even more of a challenge. There are plenty of resources out there — the Roster Resource Closer Depth Chart is one of my favorites — but even the most vigilant fantasy player can’t keep track of everything going on across the majors.

Here are a few relievers who have been seeing high leverage usage over the last two weeks, who are also rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues:

Chris Martin is currently the primary setup guy ahead of Kenley Jansen in the Red Sox ‘pen. His strikeout rate isn’t as high as it was last year with the Cubs and Dodgers but his walk rate is still a tidy 2.6%. Nothing has really changed in his profile; his swinging strike rate is right in line with where it was last year and his CSW% is up to a career high 30.7%. I’d expect his strikeout rate to bounce back towards where it was, giving him a bit more ceiling than his surface-level stats would indicate.

I wrote up Josh Sborz the last time I looked at under-rostered relievers and his roster rate barely ticked up from 0.3% to 1.9%! He’s definitely taken hold of the eighth inning duties in the Rangers bullpen ahead of closer Will Smith and his FIP is currently the lowest among this group. He currently has a career-high strikeout rate at 36.8% and his walk rate has come down two points from his career norm. More importantly, he’s only allowed a single home run this year, something that had plagued him in the past. Grant Anderson was called up by the Rangers at the end of May and has already inserted himself into the late inning picture. He dazzled in his debut, throwing 2.2 innings and striking out seven.

Justin Lawrence has taken over closing duties for the Rockies. He’s using his big sweeping slider to earn swings and misses, though his overall strikeout rate is held back by a sinker that’s used to get weak contact on the ground. Still, that’s a benefit for a reliever pitching in Coors Field and he’s only allowed a single home run this year and a 95th percentile barrel rate.

Sam Hentges missed more than a month of the season with a spring shoulder injury but has come back strong and has converted a number of high leverage opportunities for the excellent Guardians bullpen. He’s collected seven holds and has been used for multiple innings a handful of times as well. His command has been uncharacteristically off, though that might just be him still shaking off the rust after his injury. He’s throwing in the zone as often as he was last year, but his chase rate has fallen by nearly eight points.

Lucas Sims missed most of last year and some of this year with a back injury, but he returned in late-April and has taken his place as the primary setup guy in Cincinnati. He really struggled with his command after being activated off the IL, though he’s only walked two batters over his last six outings. Back in 2020, it looked like he had taken a big step forward as a lockdown reliever and the slider that drove that success is still intact. Opposing batters are whiffing 45.7% of the time they offer at his breaking ball, right in line with the whiff rates he ran in 2020 and ‘21.

After bouncing around three different organizations over the last three years, it looks like Chris Devenski has finally rediscovered the changeup that made him one of the best relievers in baseball all the way back in his debut season in 2016. His FIP across the last six seasons has been an ugly 4.27 with a decent 3.71 strikeout-to-walk ratio. This year, he’s throwing his changeup more often than ever, it’s returning a whiff rate close to 40%, and he only walked the first two batters of his season yesterday. He’s taken hold of the eighth inning role in the Angels bullpen.

With Ben Joyce sidelined with an elbow injury, another young relief arm for the Angels has stepped into high leverage opportunities in his place. José Soriano was called up in early-June and has picked up holds in three of his first four appearances in the big leagues. The flamethrowing righty had been a starting prospect in the past but command issues forced him into the bullpen for Los Angeles. He’s currently unrostered in Ottoneu.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• After working through a tough schedule this week, the Twins have a couple of easier matchups next week at home; the Brewers are much weaker on the road and have been really struggling recently and the Tigers have one of the worst offenses in the league no matter where they’re playing. The Braves also have a pretty nice schedule next week, with three in Detroit and then four games at home against the Rockies.
• The Astros and Rangers both have a pretty tough pair of home series next week. Houston will host the Nationals and Reds, both of which might seem like easy matchups, but both teams have been hitting pretty well recently. Texas hosts the high powered Angels and Blue Jays offenses and trying to avoid matchups against those two teams seems more justifiable. Still, with the way they’ve been pitching recently, you’re probably not going to sit Nathan Eovaldi or Jon Gray right now.
• The Rockies head out on the road next week but they’ve got two really bad matchups lined up which means you’re probably sitting their starters if you happen to be rostering any of them.
• Good luck trying to figure out which starters to start in that Dodgers-Giants series next weekend. Both teams have extremely low matchup ratings, a confluence of the home run friendly ballpark, the strength of San Francisco’s lineup on the road, and the always dangerous Los Angeles offense.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Pablo López
• Zack Wheeler
• Zach Eflin
• Logan Gilbert
• Charlie Morton
• Jesús Luzardo
• James Paxton
• Tanner Bibee
• Jon Gray
• Hunter Brown
• Chris Bassitt
• Joe Musgrove
• Tony Gonsolin
• Logan Webb

After rethinking what my Friday column looks like a few weeks ago, I wrote up some under-rostered relievers as the first step in reimagining this Tuesday column. This week, I’ll be looking at a few under-rostered starters who have been performing particularly well the past few weeks. I’ve split the article into pitchers rostered in more than and less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues to give a good spread of shallow and deep options.

Roster > 60%

You’ve probably heard that Michael Kopech has finally figured things out after really struggling to start off the year. Through his first eight outings, he had a 5.74 ERA that paled in comparison to his ghastly 7.30 FIP. He had allowed a whopping 12 home runs during that stretch, though his xFIP wasn’t much better at 5.78. His strikeout and walk rates were trending the wrong direction and he looked thoroughly cooked. Then, on May 19, he held the Royals scoreless across eight innings, striking out 10 and walking no one. Granted, it doesn’t take an ace to keep Kansas City off the scoreboard but Kopech has proven that it wasn’t just a fluke against a weak opponent. Across his last four starts, including the one against the Royals, he’s posted a 2.05 ERA backed by a 2.56 FIP and it looks like all his command woes have been put behind him; he’s running an outstanding 9.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this hot stretch. This stretch of success seemingly stems from a mechanical adjustment to reassert his talent.

Miles Mikolas has also put a rough start to the season behind him. Through his first five starts, his ERA and FIP stood at 7.46 and 5.49, respectively. Since then, they’re down to 1.82 and 2.98 in eight starts and he’s been particularly effective over his last three outings. I don’t think there’s any one thing driving his recent success, it’s simply a return to his ultra-efficient profile after a rough five start stretch in April.

Over his last four starts, Jack Flaherty has posted a 1.88 ERA and a 2.45 FIP with a decent 3.13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That’s an improvement over his early season work that suffered from far too many free passes. The biggest difference has been a greater reliance on his fastball; he threw his heater around 37% of the time through the first eight starts of the season and that’s jumped up ten points over the last four. Tangibly, that’s resulted in a nearly five point increase in his zone rate and just eight walks during this stretch.

Clarke Schmidt just tossed his best start of the season against the Mariners last week, holding them scoreless over 5.2 innings with seven strikeouts. Across his last three starts, he holds a 2.07 FIP with a 3.40 strikeout-to-walk ratio. To me, the perception of Schmidt’s struggles this year are out of step with his peripherals — his strikeout and walk rates during this streak of strong starts are right in line with his seasonal averages — but two ugly starts against the Rays and Rangers where he allowed 12 runs marr his overall line. I think his improvement is linked to how he’s using his sweeper. In his first nine starts of the year, he located his big breaking ball in the zone a little over 50% of the time. That rate has fallen three points over his last three starts and his whiff rate with the pitch has seen a five point increase up to 32.5%.

Roster < 60%

Kyle Gibson has been a solid, if unexciting contributor for years. This season, his strikeout rate is down a bit, though it’s been offset by a drop in home runs allowed. A weird seven inning shutout against the Yankees a few weeks ago where he allowed two hits and four walks to go along with three strikeouts is throwing off his strikeout-minus-walk rate you see above. He’s actually been pretty good over his last four outings, with a 2.92 ERA and a 3.20 FIP.

Gibson’s teammate Dean Kremer has also been on a hot streak and it stretches all the way back to the beginning of May. Across his last six starts, he’s posted a 2.55 ERA and a 3.60 FIP with a pretty good 2.90 strikeout-to-walk ratio to back it up. He’s also done this against some of the best offenses in the league — the Braves, Rays, Angels, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Giants — which is a great sign for when he starts facing some weaker teams. His improvement likely stems from his fastball velocity which has now reached a career high of 94.9 mph on average.

A journeyman who has pitched in Korea in two separate stints, Ben Lively is making the most of his time in the majors with the Reds this year. Across four starts, he’s posted a 3.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 3.33 ERA. The problem has been the home runs, particularly at home in the bandbox in Cincinnati; he’s allowed all five of his home runs at home which has caused his FIP to spike to 4.72. He’s a kitchen-sink righty with a fantastic slider fueling his high strikeout rate right now.

I had planned on writing up Alex Faedo in this space, but the Tigers just placed him on the Injured List with a finger injury. He suffers from the same problem as Lively: a fantastic strikeout-to-walk ratio is marred by far too many home runs allowed. Instead, I’ll highlight the prospect Detroit called up in Faedo’s place: Reese Olson. Command issues capped the potential ceiling of Olson despite possessing a wipeout slider. He threw that pitch a third of the time in his first major league start and it returned a 33.3% whiff rate. The thing to monitor for him will be his ability to locate his fastball. If he’s able to figure out his command issues, he’s got the deep repertoire to be able to produce in the Tigers rotation.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• The Twins head out on a tough road trip next week with two tough AL East stops. Tropicana Field is pretty pitcher friendly which is why the matchup rating is so high against the best offense in the majors. Rogers Field is definitely not pitcher friendly and it’s only gotten more dangerous after the fences were moved this year. Start your Twins pitchers if you really need to but they’re all at risk of a blowup next week.
• The Orioles and Yankees get pretty easy schedules next week. Kyle Gibson has a two-start week that you should probably take advantage of and the rest of their rotation is a pretty good bet to produce against the Brewers and Royals. The Yankees host the White Sox and Red Sox next week and both of those opponents are hitting far worse on the road than in their hitter friendly home parks.
• The Rockies return home next week to host the Giants and Padres. That makes it pretty risky to start half the rotations from those two teams, though they do have nice matchups in their non-Coors series.
• The Cubs-Padres and Brewers-Reds series over the weekend will wrap around into Monday. They’re not reflected in the table above but the starters for those teams are listed in their proper categories.

Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale are both on track to be activated from the IL over the weekend. Cal Quantrill was sent to the IL with a shoulder injury, though he probably would have been pushed out of a rotation spot anyway with both Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen thriving in the majors. Monitor McKenzie’s and Civale’s starts over the weekend to see how their stuff is holding up after their injuries. Both should be solid options going forward, though neither has a particularly easy matchup next week.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Shane McClanahan
• Nestor Cortes
• Shane Bieber
• Framber Valdez
• Kyle Gibson
• Braxton Garrett
• Tony Gonsolin</li
• Lucas Giolito
• JP Sears

The other day, I received a fascinating trade proposal in Ottoneu League 32 – Fantasy Field of Dreams: my $42 Bryce Harper for his $48 Corey Seager. If you’ve been following along with this series, I’ve covered my process of rebuilding this team, from the initial decision to rebuild, to the draft, to the breakouts that drove some early success. We’re two months into the season now and the ascent of The Wanderers has slowed a bit and now I’ve got to make a decision about this trade. I thought it would be an interesting exercise to run through my thought process as I consider whether or not to accept this trade, both as a case study for how to come to a decision on a difficult choice and as a way to check in on how my team is doing.

A straight swap of Harper and Seager is pretty interesting for a couple of reasons. First, upon first glimpse, these two players are even on value and production so the swap is simply addressing roster construction rather than a move born out of necessity. It’s also pretty uncommon to see two superstars like this traded straight up. So often, players like Harper are the centerpiece of a win-now move, with prospects or young MLB talent heading the other direction.

First, let’s do a little comparison of how Harper and Seager have performed thus far this season:

Due to injuries, they’ve both missed about the same amount of time this year and have the same number of games played so far. Harper has returned from his Tommy John surgery and has essentially picked up where he left off last year, though that isn’t up to the level of his MVP campaign in 2021. His power output is a little down which probably isn’t surprising considering the nature of his injury and his extremely quick recovery. After undergoing his own Tommy John surgery in late 2018 and exclusively hitting during the 2019 season, Shohei Ohtani’s power was significantly diminished until 2021. I’m assuming the same will hold true for Harper and we won’t see a return to his full, healthy self until next season.

Seager has his own injury concerns, though they clearly haven’t affected his ability to crush the ball. Last year was the first time he had played in a full, 162-game season since 2017. He’s already missed a month with a hamstring injury, though he’s been absolutely dominant when he’s been on the field. His hard hit and barrel rates are up to career highs and it finally seems like he’s settled in Texas after signing his mega contract last year and struggling in his first season as a Ranger.

Using four of the projections hosted on FanGraphs, we can get a rough glimpse of how the computers think these two players are going to perform over the rest of the season.

The projections think that Harper is going to have no trouble continuing to produce at his current pace. It’s certainly possible his power will return sooner rather than later, but that’s not necessarily something I want to bank on. For Seager, the projections are a little more bearish, with ZiPS being particularly pessimistic. I think they’re still weighing his down season last year a little too heavily and it certainly seems like he’s back to producing like he was in his final seasons in Los Angeles.

Without any other context, I think I’d pick Seager over Harper over the remainder of the season. But team and league context matter a great deal, especially in a format like Ottoneu. The Wanderers have fallen to ninth place in League 32, though they’re within 450 points of fourth place. The problem is that the teams in first through third place are an additional 250 points ahead of fourth which makes any dream of a Cinderella run a really long shot this year. Both Harper and Seager are keepable at their current salaries, though the former is likely a big target for arbitration during the offseason. Picking one over the other wouldn’t hamper me financially as I continue my rebuild into next season.

So then it comes down to roster construction. Ottoneu teams have to field a MI and five OF spots in addition to the traditional positions. As you might have guessed from the team name, I’ve already got Wander Franco holding down shortstop so adding Seager would really solidify MI for the future. Finding five consistent producers in the outfield is often a much harder struggle than filling out another infield spot. Here’s what my roster currently looks like at these to positions with each player’s FanGraphs Depth Charts projection listed:

Middle Infield is definitely the stronger position group right now with Muncy, Polanco, Steer, and Lowe all looking like solid contributors. Muncy will likely fill my 3B slot everyday so it’s really down to the latter three to fill two spots, 2B and MI, with Steer acting as my backup SS. My outfield group is a little weaker with just two or three solid options available to me depending on if you think Kelenic’s breakout is for real. There are a bunch of question marks for the remaining options; Hernández has been elite in the past but he’s really struggling in Seattle this year and injuries have derailed Haniger’s and Chisholm’s seasons.

Because a surprise competitive season isn’t looking likely this year, I’m less concerned with how these two position groups are shaping up this season. Looking towards the future, I’d guess I’d keep four players from each position group, though Muncy, Steer, and Chisholm are likely going to lose their MI eligibility next year. Franco is an easy keep as the centerpiece of my roster with Polanco and Tovar on the bubble depending on how they finish the season. That means I’m heading into next year with Franco as really the only guaranteed option in the infield. Happ, Gurriel, Kelenic, and Chisholm look keepable in the outfield which actually gives me a pretty decent foundation to build off of next year.

I let the other owner know that I was going to write up this trade decision so he’s privy to all these thoughts. I honestly didn’t know where I was going to land when I started writing this, but I think I’m leaning more towards Seager at this point. Does anyone have any other thoughts or things to consider that you think I missed?

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• The Brewers embark on a pretty tough road trip next week with stops in Toronto and Cincinnati. Both of those ballparks are incredibly conducive to home runs and both opponents play extremely well at home. Half of their rotation wouldn’t be recommended even if the matchup was good, but it’s probably a week where you’re more likely to sit Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta.
• After a tough pair of matchups on the road this week, the Marlins return home next week to host a couple of pretty weak lineups in their cavernous ballpark. The Orioles also have two easier matchups on the schedule which should help with some of your decision-making if you’re rostering any of their starters.
• The Royals and Cardinals have a weird two-game series next week followed by two off days in a row. It’s a scheduling quirk that’s a result of the holiday on Monday. St. Louis will get a chance for some extra rest during a week where they’re facing two weak teams.
• The Rockies are on the road next week and have a particularly enticing matchup in Kansas City next weekend giving you an opportunity to start Kyle Freeland or Austin Gomber — if you’re rostering them, you’ve been waiting for exactly this situation!

The Nationals offense has been hitting really well over the last two weeks and they’ve been pretty productive on the road this year making that matchup in Los Angeles particularly tough for the Dodgers. It doesn’t help that Dodger Stadium is pretty home run friendly either. After the Nats, the Yankees come to town which looks like an equally challenging series. Due to all the injuries sustained in their starting rotation, rookies Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone are lined up to take the ball in three games next week; all three look like pretty risky propositions even if the matchup against Washington seems enticing on paper.

The Mariners head to Texas to face the red hot Rangers next weekend which opens up some tough choices for a couple of their starters. Marco Gonzales is an easy sit, but Bryce Miller and Luis Castillo are scheduled to take the mound in the other two games and they’ll face a really strong offense. I’ve listed them both as starts since Miller has been simply dominant across his first five starts in the majors and Castillo looked much better in his last start against the A’s. I’d understand if you chose to avoid that matchup though since it looks really poor on paper.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Joe Ryan
• Shane McClanahan
• Sandy Alcantara
• Zac Gallen
• Nathan Eovaldi
• Sonny Gray
• Anthony DeSclafani
• Bryce Miller
• Tyler Wells
• Logan Allen

After rethinking what my Friday column looks like last week, I think I’ve settled on what this Tuesday column will cover for the foreseeable future. Instead of focusing on making recommendations for starters each week (which I’ll be doing anyway in my Friday SP Planner), I’ll cover under-rostered pitchers more broadly. I’ll switch off between covering starters and relievers each week with the goal of finding pitchers who are performing well and deserve a second look.

Keeping track of the machinations of 30 major league bullpens is pretty tricky. In standard leagues, it’s hard enough trying to discern which relievers are earning save opportunities, especially since more and more teams are using a committee approach in the ninth inning. In Ottoneu, with both saves and holds earning points, that search for high leverage relievers becomes even more of a challenge. There are plenty of resources out there — the Roster Resource Closer Depth Chart is one of my favorites — but even the most vigilant fantasy player can’t keep track of everything going on across the majors.

The first thing I do when looking for under-rostered relievers is look at Leverage Index, first at the seasonal averages and then the change in Leverage Index over the last two weeks. Generally, teams know what they’re doing when deploying their relievers, and they’ll use their best pitchers in the most high leverage situations. When the bullpen hierarchy shifts, LI is pretty quick to pick up on those changes, though it’s obviously limited by the number of high leverage situations a team sees.

Here’s a list of relievers who have seen the highest positive change in Leverage Index over the last two weeks, who are also rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues:

It’s tough to own any Rockies reliever, not only because they pitch half their games in Coors Field, but because the team sees fewer high leverage situations than a more competitive team would. Pierce Johnson is definitely seeing all the save situations in Colorado, though his peripherals aren’t anything special with both his walk rate and his HR/FB rate approaching 15%.

Zach Jackson was just placed on the IL with an elbow injury and there really isn’t anyone in Oakland’s bullpen that’s worth rostering because they’re seeing even fewer high leverage situations than the Rockies are.

The Rangers bullpen situation could be an interesting one to speculate on. Jonathan Hernández was holding the eighth inning role, setting up for Will Smith the closer, but he has allowed eight runs in his last three appearances. He’s probably pitched his way out of the high leverage calculus for now, opening an opportunity for the other two Texas relievers listed above. Josh Sborz had collected holds in three straight appearances before allowing five runs to score across his last two outings. He might have the best peripherals of the bunch, but his footing seems to be unstable after his last two meltdowns. Brock Burke doesn’t have the high strikeout rate you’d expect from a high leverage reliever, though it was 27.4% last year. He might be next in line for the eighth inning based on the struggles of the pitchers who were ahead of him on the depth chart.

There are a few interesting names in the Royals bullpen, though they suffer from the same problem as the A’s and the Rockies. Taylor Clarke seems to have the seventh inning role locked down ahead of Aroldis Chapman and Scott Barlow. He’s increased his strikeout rate by more than seven points behind a new emphasis on his breaking balls. Kansas City seems to have given up on using Carlos Hernández as a starter and have transitioned his extremely hard fastball to the bullpen where it’s already elite velocity and ride will only play up. He’s responded with a strikeout rate north of 30% and a couple of high leverage appearances. Of course, the Royals have used him as a short-stint opener in his last two outings so maybe they’re not ready to put him in a back-end role yet.

Here are 10 more relievers rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who have been performing well over the last few weeks and are seeing high leverage opportunities in their respective bullpens.

After making four starts at the beginning of the season, Nick Martinez has transitioned to the bullpen and has been thriving in a high leverage role for San Diego. His strikeout-minus-walk rate out of the pen is a fantastic 25.4% and he’s only being held back by the lack of hold opportunities for the scuffling Padres.

It looks like Miguel Castro is at least getting some consideration in a closer committee in Arizona. He earned two saves last week before getting inserted into the game in the seventh inning as the Phillies were threatening in a two-run game yesterday. He allowed an inherited runner to score but escaped the jam to earn a hold. He’s cut his walk rate by nearly three points while maintaining his strikeout rate this year.

The White Sox bullpen has been in flux all season long as they’ve tried to cover for the loss of Liam Hendriks. Joe Kelly might have emerged as the best option for Chicago; he’s struck out nearly 40% of the batters he’s faced this year. Hendriks is on the mend and working through his rehab assignment right now which means Kelly might settle in as a seventh or eighth inning option for the White Sox once their closer returns.

John Brebbia and Danny Coulombe are in weird positions in their respective bullpens. The former has been used as an opener a number of times this year, including yesterday ahead of Sean Manaea, but is seeing regular work in the seventh inning when he’s working out of the pen. His strikeout rate is 35.9% which is up among the league leaders and a huge improvement over what he was posting earlier in his career. Coulombe has also been striking out gaudy amounts of batters this year, but it’s been really hard to stand out in a very good Baltimore bullpen. His 28.2% strikeout-minus-walk rate sits behind only Yennier Cano and Félix Baustita in the Orioles ‘pen and it seems like it’s inevitable he’ll eventually start seeing more and more high-leverage opportunities if he continues to pitch this well.

Welcome back to the SP Drip— *record scratch* Wait, that headline doesn’t say “Drip.” After gathering feedback from across the Ottoneu universe, I’ve heard loud and clear that streaming recommendations — even in their adjusted form I presented in this biweekly column — just weren’t providing enough value for owners. Instead, they’re looking for sit/start recommendations further up the SP chain. Personally, I found that the same handful of pitchers ended up being recommended over and over again in the Drip — it turns out that the deep rosters of the format mean there are very few viable starters who are owned in less than half the leagues across Ottoneu. I’m still not sure what Tuesday’s article will look like moving forward, but on Fridays, you’ll get the full picture of the week ahead. Introducing the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner!

What I’ve done below is organize every starter on all 30 teams based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid and sorted them into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. As this is the first run of this new format, please let me know if there’s any feedback or questions.

A few general schedule notes first:

• The Red Sox have a couple of tough matchups on the West Coast in Los Angeles and Arizona. Angel Stadium is a home run heaven and the Angels are always dangerous with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani swinging big sticks, and the Diamondbacks have been one of the hottest teams in baseball recently.
• The Marlins also get to visit Angel Stadium but they have a date in Coors Field first. That means there are a bunch of solid Miami starters who have really poor recommendations this week and it’s a rough stretch for the rookie Eury Pérez.
• The White Sox will face the two worst offenses in baseball next week which means guys like Mike Clevinger and Michael Kopech are viable starters.
• The Rangers also have a pair of favorable matchups next week in Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Dane Dunning has been brilliant since joining the rotation and he gets a pair of starts in some cavernous ballparks.

Despite their fantastic record recently, the Dodgers offense has been particularly bad on the road this year and hasn’t been hitting all that well over the last two weeks either. That makes the matchup against the Rays next weekend particularly enticing for Tampa Bay starters. Tyler Glasnow is scheduled to come off the Injured List during that series and I want to rank him higher with the nice matchup to cushion his activation, but it’s so hard to predict what we’ll see from him after his spring injury.

The Mets travel to Coors Field next weekend and Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are lined up to start two of those games. Neither one has been an automatic start this year anyway — both have dealt with injuries and Scherzer has been inconsistent when he’s been healthy. It’s tough to sit the pitchers you’ve invested a ton of your salary cap into, but I wouldn’t trust either of them in the thin air in Denver.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Eduardo Rodriguez (@KCR, vCHW)
• Gerrit Cole (vBAL, vSDP)
• Dylan Cease (@CLE, @DET)
• Spencer Strider (vLAD, vPHI)
• Cristian Javier (@MIL, @OAK)
• Alex Cobb (@MIN, @MIL)
• Corbin Burnes (vHOU, vSFG)
• Luis Castillo (vOAK, vPIT)
• Dane Dunning (@PIT, @BAL)
• MacKenzie Gore (vSDP, @KCR)
• Brady Singer (vDET, vWSN)

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

Teams with favorable schedules over the weekend include the Braves, Diamondbacks, Giants, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Rays, Rangers, and Red Sox.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs, Mariners, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Reds, Rockies, Twins, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

There’s a couple of recommendations in that Nationals-Tigers series. I’ll talk about Irvin below, but Patrick Corbin deserves some more attention after holding the Mets to just two runs in six innings yesterday. The strikeouts weren’t there — just one in the outing — but he’s now strung together four good starts in a row.

James Paxton came off the IL over the weekend and looked pretty good in his first start in more than two years. He struck out nine, walked one, and allowed just four hits in five innings. His velocity looked good and his stuff looked as good as it did back when he was a frontline starter for the Mariners. He’s lined up to start against the Padres which feels like a pretty risky matchup, but San Diego’s offense is mired in a season-long slump and you have to hope that Paxton is up to the challenge of shutting down their star studded lineup.

Carlos Carrasco is scheduled to come off the IL on Saturday and gets a nice easy matchup against his former team to ease him back to the big leagues. He wasn’t pitching very well before hitting the shelf with his elbow injury and I’d usually recommend waiting a bit after a pitcher is activated off the IL to let him settle back into their routine. The matchup is just too good to pass up and he’ll be extra motivated since this is the first time he’ll be facing the Guardians since coming over to the Mets a few years ago.

Hot Starters:

Since being called up at the beginning of the month, Jake Irvin has made a couple of good starts against the Cubs and Giants but was blown up for six runs in his last start against the Mets. The good news is that he struck out six and walked just one in that outing. He wasn’t a highly regarded prospect in the Nationals organization with the profile of a back-end starter. He’s got a nice matchup against the Tigers on Friday and that’s a good opportunity to see if he can bounce back from his last start and continue building on the success he saw in San Francisco.

Zack Greinke is still hanging around pitching for the Royals in his old age. His crafty approach to pitching worked well for him in his return to Kansas City last year and he’s back at it again this season. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed six runs in 15.2 innings with a 10:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s lined up to face the White Sox this weekend and then the Tigers next week.

Recap: May 12–14

Another rough round of recommendations as Ryne Nelson, Matthew Boyd, and Adrian Houser just didn’t have it last weekend. J.P. France looked pretty good against the White Sox, lasting into the seventh inning with just a single run allowed on three hits and one walk.