Fresh off a season that saw the Braves relievers lead all of baseball, they return the vast majority of their arms. While their team xFIP was nearly a run higher than their ERA, indicating some regression is likely, they are also anchored by one of baseball’s premier closers. Couple that with the fact that the majority of their arms are under 30 and they work in a pitcher-friendly park, and there’s little reason to doubt the team should be a solid source of fantasy value again in 2014.

The closer
Craig Kimbrel

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Every member of the Washington Nationals outfield faces some crucial questions this season. Can Bryce Harper put up MVP-caliber production? Will Jayson Werth continue to defy Father Time? Can Denard Span return to 2009 form in possibly the final year of his deal? All three players have substantial fantasy upside, and the benefit of playing on what should be one of the better teams in baseball this season. While Harper and Werth should still be effective fantasy assets even if they fail to live up to expectations, they could ruin fantasy teams based on how high they are being selected. Span comes with less risk, but the potential for great reward. The real question is, how likely is it that these players actually reach their lofty upsides?

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The Rays tend to field pitchers who have a multitude of fantasy uses. In recent seasons, they’ve featured aces, mid-draft talent, and undervalued prospects. It’s shaping up to be more of the same in 2014, although the specifics have yet to be ironed out. Some spring position battles could substantially affect which players have value, but owners who are drafting soon will need to gamble.

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The incredibly disappointing 2013 Toronto Blue Jays rotation made room for one minor silver lining – the bullpen. Because starters rarely went deep, the Jays bullpen had baseball’s third-largest workload (552.2 innings pitched). They checked in with the ninth best ERA, leading to the Jays getting the eighth most value (in terms of Wins Above Replacement) out of their relievers.

I know, I know, grasping at straws from 2013 for the Jays. This is played out. And the FIP was bottom-10, with the strikeout and walk rates both checking in at 13th. A mediocre defense and homer-friendly park didn’t make things easier.

But don’t let the team’s down 2013 or the lack of action on the market fool you; this is a very solid bullpen, one with several potential closers and some appreciable depth. The team will need it, too, because it looks like they’ll enter the season with more dice rolls than Farkle in the rotation. Should they have leveraged some of this bullpen depth during the offseason to improve other areas? Absolutely. But the fact that they haven’t leaves them with a strong closer and several speculative plays in the event they go that route later.
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Some of my fondest childhood memories stem from spending summers at my grandfather’s house on Long Island. The swimming pool was nice and some of the neighborhood kids were pretty cool, but one of my favorite things to do was to pull up a chair next to his beloved BarcaLounger and sit and watch the ballgame together. When I would ask why we were always watching the Braves play, he, a man of few kind words, was never afraid to share his feelings about the Dodgers and Giants moving west, his hatred for the Yankees and an inexplicable disdain for the Mets. He was one of the few cable owners in the neighborhood back in 1980 and when Ted Turner brought him the Braves games, he “turned injun,” so to speak. Every season, amid cries of how free agency killed the game, he would lay out the roster for me and shout a variety of expletives with each new name he was forced to learn. So when the Braves offered up virtually the exact same roster this year as they did in 2013, I thought of him and how happy he would have been on Opening Day. But while looking at this outfield, one has to wonder if the roster consistency is also good for fantasy owners. Read the rest of this entry »

Despite dropping 100 games in 2013, the Miami Marlins managed to unveil one of fantasy’s hottest young starters, though the rotation behind him offers no other obvious must-draft guys. Still, there’s some talent in this group, and as fantasy owners, we’d be remiss not to do our due diligence in examining the guys slated — or possibly slated — to take the ball every fifth day in Miami.

The ballpark

Welcome to Marlins Park, a third-year stadium memorably described by Orel Hershiser as a place that looks “like a cruise ship had a baby with a spaceship.” Whatever its architectural trappings, however, this is a place that favors pitchers — StatCorner finds it depresses home runs significantly for both left- and right-handed hitters, and ESPN’s Park Factors ranked it middle of the pack in regards to runs scored.

The defense

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If you haven’t been playing fantasy baseball since 2011, it might come as a surprise that the Phillies have an old and injury prone roster. Around the infield, four of the players are in their mid-30’s while the other starter is a relatively unproven, mid-ceiling prospect. A negative perception of the Phillies team might allow several of these players to be a fantasy bargain on draft day. Let’s step through the options player by player.

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Between unforeseen injuries and under-performances, the Blue Jays slogged through a season below expectations. The team won only 74 games after being a popular postseason selection in most preseason projections. Jose Reyes only played a half-season due to injury, while guys like R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle were unable to post ERAs under 4.00. In many ways, it was a season-long nightmare that wasn’t supposed to happen.

Heading into the 2014 season, Toronto could be flying under the radar due to their disappointing performance a year ago. The top half of the everyday lineup appears to be plenty potent, and if the organization can land either Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana, their starting rotation has a shot to be roughly league-average (assuming some bounce-back for Dickey and Buehrle). Such a combination could allow them to threaten for one of the two Wild Card slots if their bullpen performs well.

The fantasy outlook for the infield, on the other hand, is a bit of a mixed bag. Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Reyes should be high on fantasy owners’ draft boards, while players such as Ryan Goins and Dioner Navarro probably aren’t ownable in standard leagues.

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It’s a good thing readers aren’t able to leave comments on the Fangraphs+ blurbs because I botched the blurb I wrote on Washington’s closer, Rafael Soriano. In that blurb I stated that Soriano is “a lock to be drafted as a top five closer.” As it turns out, not so much. Soriano is currently going 13th among closers in NFBC drafts. I either underestimated the ability of drafters to see some of the red flags, or I forgot that ADP is heavily influenced by the order in which players are listed in draft rooms and that the people doing the listing would see his red flags.

What are those red flags? In reality, all the peripheral numbers that declined last year for Soriano are all tied to his ability to miss bats. His velocity was down which helped hitters make more contact on pitches in the zone than ever before which led to his swing strike rate dropping which obviously led to fewer strikeouts. To be exact, his strikeout rate fell 6.3%. If you’re looking for a positive sign, his fastball velocity got back close to his normal speed after April and May.

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The Phillies appear pretty set in the outfield, with no exciting position battles looking to take place, even on their bench. That makes it much easier for forecasters like me to project playing time! The outfield enjoys an interesting mix of power, speed, upside and downside potential.

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