Archive for Depth Chart Discussions

The Nationals Infield

According to MockDraftCentral.com, the Nationals infield has a couple of top 100 players, a top 150 player, and two others who are on the edge of fantasy viability. But as far as value goes, I think the three that drafters like the most are probably the ones I like the least. And one of those two the drafters have on the edge of viability is not within the realm of viability if you ask me.

Catcher

Name PA HR SB R RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS
Wilson Ramos 440 18  0 53 65 0.268 0.322 0.442 0.764

Ramos’ ADP is 244th, placing him just on the edge of fantasy relevance. With the projection I’ve listed above (projections are my own), I have him as the #11 catcher this year. Last year, 11 catchers finished with an ESPN player rater number in the top 250. The drafters are spot on having Ramos going at the tail end of shallow mixed league drafts.

Ramos is interesting because there is a possibility that he could be a top five catcher or completely irrelevant. They key is simply playing time. In the last two seasons combined he has come up just shy of 400 PA. My PA projection is fairly optimistic, and the Fan projections are slightly more optimistic coming in at 467 PA. The higher that PA total gets above 450, the higher he’ll finish among catchers. Read the rest of this entry »


Exit Sandman: No Mo, No Problem? Well, Maybe Not Quite

The Yankees bullpen will have a drastically different look in 2014, if for no other reason than that the back end will be propped up by someone other than Mariano Rivera for the first time since 1997. Think about that for a second: Rivera is the bridge from John Wetteland to David Robertson.

Rivera isn’t the only one gone from a bullpen which ranked 20th in ERA, 26th in FIP, but 6th in K/9. Also gone from last year are Joba Chamberlain — addition by subtraction, in the eyes of most Yankees fans — and Boone Logan — just plain subtraction — as well as even David Huff, whose 34.2 innings as a swingman aren’t completely insignificant.

The Yankees didn’t pour any money into the bullpen in the offseason, instead focusing on adding Masahiro Tanaka and retaining Hiroki Kuroda in to an otherwise ordinary rotation. This means that the club will likely have to find somewhere between 150-200 innings out of guys who were non-factors for the Bombers in 2013. That is, previous lower-tier guys as well as minor league fill-ins.

The Closer

David Robertson (9.9 K/9, 2.97 ERA, 35 saves via 2014 Steamer Projections)

After six straight years of 10.0-plus K/9, for some reason Steamer thinks Robertson will take a slight step back as he inherits the closer’s role. It certainly won’t be easy to replace immortality, but in reality Robertson has been nails from the get-go, with a career K/9 of 11.7, an ERA of 2.76, and FIPs that are more or less exactly in line with it. Robertson missed a few less bats last year — still a solid 10.5 per 9 — but found some extra grounders en route to an outstanding 2.04 ERA. To me, Steamer is a bit down on a guy who I think has a shot to be an elite closer right out of the gate. This Yankees team may not be amazing, but I think they’ll be good enough for me to take the over on Steamer’s 35 saves projection. Robertson is legit. Read the rest of this entry »


Plenty Of New Faces In Detroit Bullpen

You may remember last year’s Detroit bullpen as being something of a mess, especially once Bruce Rondon proved that he was not going to be able to grab the closer’s job right out of camp as the Tigers as hoped. They tried to bring back Jose Valverde, with disastrous results, Phil Coke got a brief shot, and they picked up Jose Veras for depth, but the majority of saves ended up going to Joaquin Benoit, who proved effective in the role after being bumped up from his setup man spot.

Now, Benoit is off to San Diego. Veras is with the Cubs. Valverde is trying to make the Mets. Drew Smyly is in the rotation, replacing Doug Fister. Darin Downs is in Houston. Of the five most-used Tiger relievers in 2013, three are no longer in the Detroit bullpen, replaced by several new names. It’s a bullpen in transition. Let’s get to it. Read the rest of this entry »


The Rays Bullpen May Be the Best in Baseball

One of the most interesting trends of the offseason has been the investment analytical teams like the Athletics and Rays have made in their bullpens. With the Rays, specifically, a pair of trades and a free agent signing have added two relievers with experience closing games to a bullpen that already boasted more than 100 career saves. Together, they should form one the most dominant bullpens in all of baseball with several attractive options for deeper fantasy leagues.

The Rays landed a likely bargain in Grant Balfour for two years and $12 million thanks to his failed physical with the Orioles. It is difficult to be overly concerned with his health status given that Orioles seem to have had more failed physicals than actual signings this offseason. The real reason owners should be pessimistic of Balfour is the handful of excellent arms behind him that boast numbers as good as he has in their careers, if for fewer seasons. In fact, Balfour is one of four Rays relievers to have struck out at least a batter per inning in his career.

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Red Sox Bullpen: No Such Thing as a Free… Pass

The Red Sox still control the majority of the key bullpen cogs from their World Championship run, so the team that posted the fifth best SIERA in the American League should be in the neighborhood of repeating that mark in 2014. With the return of a couple injured arms (note: mercifully not Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey) and the addition of a few pitchers fitting the mold of Boston’s already low-walk relief corps, there is also upside for the defending champs to own one of the better (and more fantasy relevant) bullpens in baseball.

The closer
Koji Uehara

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Blue Jays Outfield: Time for A Bounce Back

It was a mixed year for the Toronto Blue Jays outfield. Jose Bautista produced when healthy, but his season was cut short by a hip injury. Melky Cabrera played in just 88 games due to injuries and failed to live up to expectations. Colby Rasmus actually produced strong numbers despite a crazy-high strikeout rate. All three players will be looking for more in 2014, but all come with legitimate risks. Will any of the trio beat the odds this time around?

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The Yankees Rotation: 2014 Depth Chart

Is there a more fascinating rotation in fantasy than the one sported by the New York Yankees? All five projected starters carry compelling storylines into 2014, whether they’re attempting to stave off injury or prove themselves as capable big league hurlers as the team looks to return to postseason baseball.

There’s nothing wrong with being 33 years old, but the question for fantasy owners is how quickly CC Sabathia’s advancing years are diminishing his value. There’s plenty to be down about: the lefty last season posted the lowest WAR (2.7), highest batting average against (.267), ERA (4.78) and WHIP (1.37) of his 13-year career. Optimists might look at his 3.76 xFIP and believe he was cheated a bit on the 27 home runs he allowed, and less home runs would improve his strand rate, and a better strand rate would help bring down his ERA. But what’s most alarming to fantasy owners is the drop in strikeouts; his 19.3 percent strikeout rate was his lowest since 2004, his whiff rate dropped nearly two percentage points from 2012 and his average fastball velocity declined for the third straight season.

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The Red Sox Infield: What’s Up, Stephen Drew?

When Boston won the 2013 World Series (spoiler alert!), many pundits anticipated the reality that the team would look very different in 2014. Expiring deals for key cogs like Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew and Jarrod Saltalamacchia made that the case. And yet, on the verge of the 2014 season, the Red Sox infield has many familiar faces.

Except, of course, at shortstop. The Red Sox don’t seem to have a concrete plan there, which is a strange position for a defending champ to be in during spring training. How this all shakes out will matter a great deal to fantasy owners, so it bears watching. Read the rest of this entry »


Baltimore Orioles Rotation: Nothing But Question Marks

It had been a relatively quiet offseason for the Baltimore Orioles, but they’ve recently turned up the heat by signing Ubaldo Jimenez, Nelson Cruz and right-hander Suk-min Yoon over the past week. It’s been a flurry of moves that has personnel ramifications throughout the roster. However, perhaps the most significant addition comes in the starting rotation with former All-Star hurler Jimenez.

The rotation has proven to be an  a problem for the Orioles in recent years. No team has trotted out a worse collection of starting pitchers than the O’s over the last half-decade. Their 4.87 ERA and 4.82 FIP are the highest in Major League Baseball over that time frame. They’ve accumulated the highest home-run rate, the lowest ground-ball rate (which makes sense, considering the home-run rate) and the second-lowest strikeout rate. In short, it hasn’t been pretty and Orioles fans deserve a medal of some sort for coping with such dreadful pitching.

The organization is hoping to turn it around in 2014, though. The addition of Ubaldo Jimenez, the improvement of Chris Tillman, and the maturation of Kevin Gausman are all supposed to help right the ship. Miguel Gonzalez, Wei-Yin Chen and Bud Norris all simply need to not take on water, and the rotation has a decent chance at being league-average. Considering the potent lineup that now adds Nelson Cruz to the mix, the Orioles only need their starters to be average to compete for a postseason berth.

Of course, that’s not something on which I’m comfortable betting as draft day rolls around this spring.

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The Orioles Infield

The Baltimore infield gave us quite a few fantasy relevant options last year. They had a player finish inside the top 12 at every position other than second base, and Chris Davis emerged as a complete stud. Their four fantasy relevant guys will return to their positions, but there are some questions about whether they’ll be able to repeat their value from last year.

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