Clayton Kershaw was fantastic Wednesday; he was perfect. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball, in my opinion. Since 2010, he’s third in WAR with 25.4, behind Felix Hernandez (26.5) and Justin Verlander (26.9). It’s long been discussed, however, that FIP based WAR might underrate Kershaw a little. If we use RA9-WAR, we get the same pitchers, in a different order. Kershaw reigns supreme at 29.7; Verlander and Hernandez follow accordingly with 25.6 and 25.5, respectively. Kershaw’s been great for quite some time, but he’s doing something he’s never came close to doing before, according to K-BB%.

Over the past 3 seasons, Kershaw has posted strikeout percentages of: 25.4, 25.6, and 34.4, while posting walk rates of: 7.0, 5.6, and 3.2. His strikeouts are through the roof, as his swinging strike rate, while his walk rate has plummeted even further. Kershaw, due to injury isn’t a “qualified” pitcher, at the moment. Nonetheless, what he’s doing is historic.

Since 1965, only Pedro Martinez has posted a better K-BB% as a starter, with at least 60 innings pitched. We’re in a different era, strikeouts are more prevalent than ever, but, still…come on. Kershaw’s doing something that’s nearly unheard of. He’s started 10 games. He’s struck out at least nine batters in seven on them. Regression might take over; it probably will, at least a little bit, but I’m not betting against Kershaw. Not this year. Maybe not ever.

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Yesterday, June 19, was the 13th anniversary of Mandy Moore’s self titled album. While this album was released my freshman year of high school, Mandy Moore was one of my earliest celebrity crushes, going back to her debut. I am not embarrassed (you should all know by now I have no shame) to say her track Crush resonated with 14-year-old and (very) awkward me.

On today’s agenda:
1. Zack Wheeler’s dominant start
2. A setback for Jedd Gyorko
3. Thoughts on Danny Duffy
4. Mookie Betts watch
5. The daily five

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Agenda

1. A Leaderboard
2. Daily DFS
3. Friday Picks
4. Table

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There’s been a good deal of talk on these pages (especially on the Fangraphs side) about trusting in rest of season projections of late. Brett Talley talked about this a little on Monday, and despite Justin Verlander trying his very best to shred Brett’s point to pieces, it still stands – ROS projections are a very effective tool, and using them with a little bit of your own analysis (match ups, weather, and so on) can provide real value.

Should we be less trusting when it comes to young players, though? It seems that projection systems would struggle more in translating minor league stats than major league ones. I don’t have the data chops to determine to what degree that’s true, but it certainly makes sense logically – there’s a lot more noise happening at the minor league level, and the difficulty gets turnt up in the majors.

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Y’all have stuck with me for four straight days this week, and you will be punished for doing so by having David Wiers back at the Roto Riteup this weekend. I didn’t do this to you; you did this to yourself.

On today’s agenda:
1. Kyle Gibson finds his strikeouts
2. Jake Arrieta Watch
3. Jarrod Saltalamacchia back from DL
4. Fun with arbitrary endpoints
5. The Forceful Five

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It’s Chris Sale day. Jeff Sullivan had a post about him the other day. Spoiler: he’s fantastic. Here are some of the highlights from said piece:

For Sale, there are a few goals. One, he wants to keep himself healthy and able to pitch. Two, adding a better changeup should allow him to be effective longer within games. And three, Sale indicates that the changeup helps him keep his mechanics consistent. These things always sound good in theory, but Sale’s gone beyond theory, to the point where he’s genuinely executing. He’s dramatically cut down his slider usage. By our data, he’s increased his changeup usage by 12 percentage points, the biggest hike in baseball. According to Brooks, he’s actually second toHenderson Alvarez, but by the same source Alvarez used a changeup often in the past, so at least for Sale this is significant and new.

And Sale owns a career-high strikeout rate. He owns a career-low walk rate. Since he came off the disabled list, he’s posted a league-leading K% – BB% of 33%. Sale’s gotten better against both lefties and righties, and for an idea of the confidence he’s developed in his change.

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For another glimpse at how Sale has kind of phased the slider out, here are his rates of strikeouts for which the slider was responsible:

2012: 58% strikeouts on slider
2013: 52%
2014: 22%

Sale’s slider is still good. It’s still Chris Sale’s slider. This season it’s been knocked for all of three hits. But Sale hasn’t needed to rely on that pitch, as his changeup has been knocked for just 11 hits despite a large gain in frequency. The one Sale changeup hit for extra bases so far wasn’t even a bad changeup; it was a good changeup thrown to an amazing hitter. Otherwise, the changeup has gotten 20 strikeouts and ten singles. Righties have struck out against the changeup 17 times; they’ve struck out against the slider six times. Last season, those numbers were 34 and 79.

Mr. Sale will be going against the NL ERA leader, Tim Hudson, today; should be a dandy.

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Agenda

1. My Weather Dance
2. Daily DFS
3. Thin Thursday
4. Table

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When should we begin to buy a breakout? Indians outfielder Michael Brantley has played the part perfectly this year. After two seasons of solid performance, Brantley has emerged as an elite hitter at age-27. While that’s typically the time hitters come into their prime, Brantley’s surge comes as a surprise. The question, of course, is whether it’s legitimate. Has Brantley seen an inordinate amount of luck early, or have his skills progressed? Can’t it be both?

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“In the future, I want all Americans to come together over breakfast and a fresh copy of the Roto Riteup” — Abraham Lincoln, Martin Luther King, and Adolf Hitler at a joint speaking opportunity on the Moon.

On today’s agenda:
1. Andrew Heaney says “Hi”
2. Phil Hughes watch
3. A draft pick on the rise
4. Adam Wainwright’s elbow
5. The Furcular Five

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Agenda

1. Studs or Duds
2. Daily DFS
3. Wednesday Picks
4. Table

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