Last season, Jeff Locke became, in some ways, a whipping boy for regression. He made the All-Star team thanks to a stellar 2.15 ERA and, undoubtedly, eight wins. Regression seemed to be on the horizon, and it was. His command was iffy at best, and he didn’t miss enough bats to make up for that. And then, the bottom fell out. Locke posted a 6.12 ERA over his last 12 starts. He was optioned to the minors and began his 2014 there, as well.

Jeff Locke is back, but he hasn’t looked much like the old one so far. He’s only thrown 26.1 innings in the majors thus far, so we’re dealing with an extremely small sample. Nonetheless, Locke has walked 2 batters. His 2% walk rate is nearly a 10% improvement over last year’s. In 2013, Locke threw a first pitch strike 58.5% of the time; he’s at 64% this year. His zone% last year was 41%; it’s 52.2% so far.

The most encouraging thing, though, about Locke’s early success is his swinging strike rate. Currently, his swSTR% is 12%, nearly a 4% increase over his 2012 and 2013 stints. He’s been able to generate those whiffs due to his change-up, which has a 31.3% swinging strike rate in 83 pitches. Locke’s change-up is, without question, his best weapon. He knows it, so he’s upped its usage over 9 points to 25.6%.

Locke isn’t an ace, but he looks improved. Much of this could be noise, but it’s hard to fake a 31.3% whiff rate on your change-up. Watch Locke closely going forward. If his command holds up, he could have a little something.

Read the rest of this entry »

Exactly 27 years ago today the genius known as Mel Brooks unleashed the film “Spaceballs.” To boil a masterpiece such as that down to a single scene is impossible, but the trailer does a solid job. Okay, and the ludicrous speed scene. And the “When will then be now?” clip. You know, just go watch the entire film; it’s on Netflix.

On today’s agenda:
1. Thoughts on Everth Cabrera
2. Brett Lawrie to miss 3-6 weeks
3. The return of Travis d’Arnaud
4. The daily five

Read the rest of this entry »

After a nice first two months of the season, June is killing me. Much of the gains I made early in the year have been given back over the last three weeks. My double up success rate has deteriorated, and I’ve hardly sniffed a cash in GPPs. I’m frustrated, but I have to fight the urge to mail it in. I’ve still had success on the whole, even if I haven’t been able to continue to multiply my bankroll like I had hoped.

I can’t be the only one feeling like this. If you’re on a bad run, I encourage you to stick with it. I’m hoping things improve as the season drags on and the data I use on a daily basis becomes more reliable. Each year I compete in the FantasyPros.com weekly football ranking contest, and I have performed much better in the second half of the season in each of the last three years. I attribute this to the data I use simply being more reliable as the season goes on. My approach to baseball DFS is almost as dependent on data, and it stands to reason that as it gets more reliable, my performance will improve. At least that’s what I’m telling myself.

Read the rest of this entry »

If you’re still sick from the nasty USMNT finish yesterday, today’s Roto Riteup may make you feel worse, not better.

On today’s agenda:
1. Matt Shoemaker, a man I believe in
2. Andrew Cashner scratched today
3. The Fascinating Five

Read the rest of this entry »

Left-handed hitters are batting just .238 off of left-handed pitchers so far this season, posting a paltry .290 wOBA, roughly 20 percent below the league average for offense.

We know that the lefty-lefty match-up is a tricky one, and I think it’s generally accepted that the righty-righty match-up is less of an issue, because a righty who can’t hit righties would probably be filtered out of the talent pool before reached the majors.

Here’s how the numbers bear out so far this season:

Read the rest of this entry »

Thirty years ago today the film “The Karate Kid” was released. I’ll admit I haven’t seen the remake, but I have a hard time believing it could possibly have a better montage than the original. I mean, it was the best around.

On today’s agenda:
1. A strong outing from Mike Leake
2. J.J. Hardy hits a home run
3. Joc Pederson watch
4. The daily five

Read the rest of this entry »

And the weekend finally arrives. All of the weekend’s series started yesterday, but we were a little preoccupied with Clayton Kershaw to acknowledge that. The Braves and the Nationals are in a dead heat in the NL East, currently. The Orioles-Yankees series has some standings implications. As does the Indians-Tigers. Given the Royals’ recent run, that series is especially interesting.

We’re at a point in the season where things are fluid. Standings can change on a whim, but the series seem to start meaning a little more. The Red Sox are one of the teams that needs to begin making up ground. They’re 6.5 back as of Friday, after a loss to Oakland on Thursday, in the first game of a four game series. While Boston is trying to gain ground, Toronto will be facing off with divisional foe, Baltimore.

On the other coast, the Giants’ slide has helped the Dodgers make up ground, dropping the difference between the teams to 4 games, as of Friday afternoon. Best of all, for LA, they’re facing an anemic Padres squad this weekend. With good play and a little luck, the Dodgers deficit could be trimmed even further.

Read the rest of this entry »

Agenda

1. Daily Adjusted Park Factors
2. Daily DFS
3. Sunday Pick
4. Table

Read the rest of this entry »

Today’s Roto Riteup is unofficially brought to you by Modest Mouse and their album “Good News For People Who Love Bad News.” I’m currently listening to this record for the first time in a few years and it still holds up. When I sat down “Bukowski” (warning: language) began to play and I urge you to listen to it.

On today’s agenda:
1. Carlos Martinez to start tomorrow
2. Corey Dickerson fills up the stat sheet
3. A demotion for Tony Cingrani
4. Kris Bryant watch
5. The daily five

Read the rest of this entry »

Agenda

1. Alternatives to Wins
2. Daily DFS
3. Saturday Picks
4. Table

Read the rest of this entry »