While strikeouts from a hitter’s perspective may not mean a whole lot to the sabermetric community (OK, that’s amazingly oversimplified, but they generally have near-zero linear weights), getting docked 0.75 points for them in Draftstreet (or your non-Ottoneu points leagues) is kind of a big deal. So if we’re trying to decide between a few hitters, one thing we may want to take a look at is opposing pitcher strikeout rates.

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Happy Ace Day, everyone! Today’s slate of games features many of the best and most exciting young pitchers in baseball, and in honor of that, I’m going to talk a little bit about how terrific pitching performances could affect your daily fantasy team … and what we need to be looking for when we pick starters in formats like DraftStreet.

Points given for a win are much more valuable than points taken away for a loss

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A lot of factors to consider when picking hitters have discussed in this space this year. Weather factors like temperature and wind are more important than I realized at the beginning of the year. Park factors are a big deal. The extent to which the opposing starter is susceptible to the long ball matters. And on and on and on.

But before I look at any of those other factors each day, I start by looking at whether the batter has the platoon advantage. As both Blake Murphy and I have discussed, some guys have reverse splits when it comes to the handedness of the opposing pitcher. But, for the most part, having the platoon advantage should be requirement numero uno when selecting hitters. I know I’m not breaking any news by harping on the platoon advantage, but because it’s the first thing I look at, I wanted to give everyone a reminder of its importance. Below is a chart showing how batters have performed with and without the platoon advantage so far this season. Read the rest of this entry »

You know how we pick on the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins a lot in this space? Basically, daily leagues allow you to “stream” starters against opponents every day, but instead of worrying about waiver availability we instead worry about prices. If a match-up is too obvious, it’s likely been factored into the price.

That’s why sometimes a safe match against the Marlins maybe isn’t worth it, because DraftStreet knows a match against the Marlins is safe. The same goes for the Astros, who hit a little better but strike out a bunch more.

I wanted to pull some data to see whether these match-ups are still “worth it” and if perhaps the public perception of the poor offenses has overshot the efficacy of facing them, so to speak.
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The other day I found myself wondering what the downside risk of any starting pitcher was. If I could be relatively assured that a starter would throw a couple innings and get a couple of strikeouts, was it worth grabbing someone at a wild discount?

The player I was considering was Donovan Hand, on Thursday. He was about $5k cheaper than any other starter on a day without many options on the slate. I passed, and that turned out to be a good thing, as Hand allowed 11 baserunners and four earned over five innings. Even then, though, he managed 0.8 points on the day.

So, if Hand comes cheap and manages positive points in a terrible outing, does that make really cheap starters a better use of resources than, say, a cheap hitter who could rack up whiffs and post a negative?
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On Monday I took a look at Paul Goldschmidt’s strange home/road splits. Despite a basic park factor of 105 in Arizona in addition to a 105 factor for home runs for right-handers, Goldschmidt has been noticeably better on the road. And as I was trolling around looking at numbers this week, I came across Joey Votto who has also been quite a bit better on the road despite a very favorable home ballpark.

So I decided to see what other players were seeing some backwards home/road splits. I took all players with 600+ PA both at home and on the road since the beginning of 2011. And I only included players that called the same ballpark home for that entire span. Below is a list of the players whose home wOBA is lower than their road wOBA despite their home park having an above average basic park factor. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday we discussed the impact multi-homer games can have on a fantasy team. And then Leony Martin and Elvis Andrus went on to tear the house down, stealing three bases a piece off of Tommy Hanson and the Los Angeles Angels.

Multi-steal games are just as common as multi-homer games, which is a little odd considering there have been half as many steals as homers this year. However, steals are spread over a smaller pool than are home runs. There’s also the presence of guys like Hanson who change the stolen base environment far more dramatically than any pitcher could the home run environment. Basically, home runs are distributed more evenly over all games than steals are.

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Your chances of successfully predicting a multi-homer game are pretty slim. Your process can be spot on a hundred times and you may never stumble into one. Alternatively, you could be playing a match-up for steals or ratios and happen to end up with two taters on your plate.

Last night, Jacoby Ellsbury went deep twice against the Houston Astros, providing great value for daily league players in a 15-10 slugfest. Ellsbury’s game marked the 169th time this year a player has had a multi-home run game and the eighth time already in August. Not surprisingly, teams who received multiple homers from the same player have gone 130-39 in those games this year.

Daily fantasy players have made out just as well.
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One of the maxims that I used to follow in my fantasy baseball journey was a simple one: stay away from rookie starting pitchers. There was just too much risk, too little reward. Despite huge pedigrees, wicked stuff, or all the hype, the math just didn’t work for rookie starters. Most often, there was a very serious learning curve for even the top rookie starters — and while some players were dangerous from day one, plenty of them were ineffective.

Things have changed. Top rookies like Shelby Miller and Jose Fernandez are dominating major league hitters out of the gate. Unheralded rookies like Nick Tepesch and Dan Straily are good enough to play in your fantasy leagues. While rookie pitchers have always been a risky proposition, these days it appears that the risks have been somewhat mitigated by continued solid performance.

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On Saturday Blake Murphy updated something I looked into awhile back, which was hitters with a reverse platoon split. This reminded me of another unusual split I came across earlier this season. Despite the fact that Arizona has a the 4th most hitter-friendly basic park factor and is the 8th most homer-friendly home run park for right-handed hitters, right-hander Paul Goldschmidt has been better on the road in his career. During his call up season and first full season (2011-2012), Goldy had a .338 wOBA at home and .382 wOBA on the road. Some of that was a strikeout rate that was 3% lower on the road, but that alone isn’t enough to account for a 44 point difference in wOBA.

He has been basically as good at home and on the road this season, but he has still been slightly better on the road. This just seems so strange because the average basic park factor for his road games (weighted for the number of games he has played in each park) is 99.27, and the HR as R factor for his road games is 99.17. That’s compared to a 105 basic park factor and 105 HR as R factor at home in Arizona. In other words, Goldy has had conditions 6% more favorable at home in his career, yet his wOBA is significantly higher on the road.

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