Don’t look now, but Giants GM Brian Sabean may very well be enjoying the best offseason of any GM, non-Yankees division. In addition to bringing still-nasty Randy Johnson into the fold for what figures to be a below-market deal, Sabean has added a potentially useful middle man in Bob Howry, a cheap power bat in Josh Phelps and a shortstop in Edgar Renteria who will at least abate those Brian Bocock-induced nightmares. But Sabean kicked off his solid winter by snagging southpaw Jeremy Affeldt to a shrewd two-year, $8 million deal.

A lefty who cooks with gas, Affeldt was nonetheless a perennial disappointment in Kansas City, throwing hard but indiscriminate pitches that often resulted in a free pass for the batter (that role is now dutifully filled by Kyle Farnsworth, who must have some embarrassing photos of Dayton Moore or something; how else does a replacement-level reliever snag two years and $9.25 mil? Farnsy might be able to outslug Affeldt, but outpitching him seems pretty unlikely. But I digress.)

After a solid 2003 campaign with K.C. (3.74 FIP in 18 starts and 18 relief appearances), Affeldt tossed 76.1 frames and a 4.16 FIP in 2004, again splitting time between the rotation and the ‘pen while battling a rib cage injury. He followed that up with a 2005 campaign in which he hit the DL with a groin strain on two separate occasions. After a disastrous ’06 season where he was traded to Colorado mid-season (97.1 IP, 5.65 FIP), he turned in a decent 2007 season with the Rockies, posting a 4.17 FIP in 59 innings. His control still left much to be desired, however (5.03 BB/9).

The 6-4, 225 pounder inked a 1-year, $3 million deal with the Reds last offseason. Upon reaching Cincy, Affeldt appeared to transform into a different type of pitcher. In 78.1 innings, he posted a career-best 3.66 FIP, generating nearly two ground balls for every flyball hit. One might that that Affeldt’s ’08 season was just a flash in the pan, the sort of thing that occasionally happens with relievers in a relatively small sample of innings. And perhaps that’s true. But, there are several reasons to believe that this new-and-improved Affeldt is here to stay.

Nothing in Affeldt’s stat sheet suggests that his performance in Cincy was a fluke. He upped his strikeout rate to a career-best 9.19 batters per nine innings, over two K’s per nine more than 2007. Most importantly, he shaved his walk rate by a significant margin, issuing 2.87 BB/9.

Not surprisingly, Affeldt increased his first-pitch strike percentage (F-Strike%). Batters found themselves behind 0-and-1 or put the ball in play 57.9% of the time in 2008, up from 55.7% in ’07 and just 49.3% in ’06. If anything, Affeldt was actually unlucky in 2008. His BABIP was .329 behind a leaky Cincinnati defense (29th in team Defense Efficiency), and his home run/flyball rate of 15% about 3-4% above the typical rate for pitchers. Using XFIP to normalize that HR/FB rate, Affeldt’s ERA drops to 3.40. For comparison, Francisco Rodriguez’s XFIP was 3.71 in 2008.

So, how did Affeldt turn his career around? The 29 year-old found an additional 2 MPH on his fastball, throwing his heater at an average velocity of 94.6 MPH (92.3 MPH in ’07). Also, his big-breaking, high-70’s curve showed a lot more bite this past season. Let’s take a look at Affeldt’s pitch f/x data from Josh Kalk’s blog:

2007

Fastball: 5.46 X, 10.05 Z
Curveball: -3.08 X, -1.25 Z
Changeup: 3.46 X, 8.29 Z

2008

Fastball: 5.87 X, 8.68 Z
Curveball: -4.87 X, -5.57 Z
Changeup: 6.48 X, 7.08 Z

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

Look at the difference in depth between his ’07 curve and the nasty hammer he threw in 2008- his ’08 curve dropped over four inches more in the zone than it did the previous year. With a hopping heater and a sinister hook, Affeldt lowered his Contact% to 73.5% (down from 81.2% in ’07, ranking between Grant Balfour and Hong Chih Kuo) and baited batters into fishing for a pitch outside of the strike zone 26% of the time (22.6% in ’07).

As of right now, Affeldt is penciled in to be either the 7th or 8th-inning guy in San Francisco, but it’s possible that he rises from that position at some point. Current closer Brian Wilson also misses plenty of bats, but he’s not infallible, as his career 4.34 BB/9 suggests. If Wilson experiences some rough moments, Affeldt has the goods to close the door and pick up some saves along the way.

It’s once again time to play one of our favorite games around these parts: Name That Pitcher! Here are our mystery hurlers…

Pitcher A: 69.1 IP, 11.94 K/9, 4.54 BB/9, .317 BABIP, 82.9 LOB%

Pitcher B: 67 IP, 11.82 K/9, 4.03 BB/9, .308 BABIP, 78.3 LOB%

As you can see, our mystery pitchers are strikingly similar. Both racked up huge strikeout numbers and walked a fair amount of batters. Neither guy experienced terrible luck on balls in play, though Pitcher A fared worse in that category. Pitcher A was also a little better in stranding runners on base. Overall, though, these two stat lines are near reflections of one another.

However, the perception of the two diverges pretty dramatically. Pitcher A was a perfect 41-for-41 in save opportunities and was considered to have perhaps the best relief season in the game. On the other hand, Pitcher B was considered a pretty large disappointment, so much so that he was shipped out of town for a middle reliever, a lukewarm third base prospect and a center fielder who posted a mind-numbing .276 wOBA (22.1 runs below average) in 2008.

So, who are these guys? As you’ve probably already guessed, Pitcher A is Brad Lidge. Pitcher B is…also Brad Lidge, in 2007.

While Lidge was somewhat better in 2008, this comparison serves to show how there really wasn’t that wide of a difference between “head case” Lidge in ’07 and “World Series champ” Lidge in ’08. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times (which evaluates pitchers based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run/flyball rate), we find that ’07 Lidge (3.42) was a little worse than ’08 Lidge (3.06), but not by as much as one might initially think. What led to the big gap in perception?

Home runs. In 2007, Lidge gave up 9 long balls in 67 innings, or 1.21 per nine innings. His Home/Flyball rate was pretty lofty, at 13.2% (and that was actually an improvement from an inauspicious 16.4% mark in ’06). In 2008, Lidge served up only 2 home runs in 69.1 innings, or a measly 0.26 per nine innings.

Nothing changed dramatically in the Notre Dame product’s batted ball data- rather, his HR/FB rate sank to an absurdly low 3.9%. To put that into context, pitchers typically give up two and a half to three times as many homers per flyball hit, and Lidge’s career HR/FB is 10%. Couple regression to the mean with a homer happy ballpark (Citizens Bank’s three-year HR park factor is 122), and it seems very likely that Lidge’s HR rate will quadruple next season.

This is the challenge faced when evaluating reliever performance. We’re dealing with inherently small sample sizes, and a few fortunate or unlucky bounces here or there can dramatically change the perception and quality of a player’s season. By most measures, Brad Lidge circa 2007 was a doppelganger of the relief ace that helped the Phillies win a world championship. But because a few extra flyballs found their way into the stands in ’07 and virtually none did in ’08, the two seasons are viewed as different as night and day.

The purpose of this exercise is not to diminish Brad Lidge’s accomplishments this past season. He enjoyed an excellent ’08 campaign, racking up a league-leading 5.37 WPA. However, his minuscule HR/FB rate does figure to rise in 2009. With some extra souvenirs likely finding their way to the paying customers, Lidge might revert back to the 2007 version of himself next season. And you know what? That’s not really a bad thing.

At first glance, one might think that Jonathan Broxton just got lost on his way to a San Diego Chargers game. The 6-4, 290 pound behemoth wouldn’t at all look out of place in the huddle (and, in fact, he’s bigger than defensive end Luis Castillo). But Broxton is very much a pitcher, and as one might expect from such a frame, he is capable of tossing scorching fastballs that wear out radar guns everywhere.

Selected out of a Georgia high school in the second round of the 2002 draft, Broxton began his career as a starting pitcher. Fifty of his 87 career minor league appearances were of the starting variety, and he fared quite well in the role. In the High-A Florida State League in 2004, he punched out 144 batters in 128.1 innings, walking 43 and surrendering just 110 hits. Despite the success, Broxton was always seen as a reliever-in-the-making, with his premium heat, sharp slider, ample size and lagging changeup.

Suffice it to say, Broxton took to the bullpen well, and has posted three consecutive high-octane seasons for the Dodgers. His career Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) is 2.72, with a gargantuan 11.43 K/9 and 3.62 BB/9. Equipped with mid-to-high 90’s gas (which has actually increased in speed each year of his big league career) and an upper-80’s slider, Broxton has been extremely difficult to make contact with. His career Contact% is 72.4%, including a 71.2 mark in 2008 that ranked 10th among all qualified relievers.

Broxton was used in plenty of critical situations in ’08 (his LI was 1.7), but he didn’t perform as well as he had the previous two seasons. While he stranded runners at an 82.2% clip in ’06 and 75.1% in ’07, his LOB% fell to 67.7% in 2008. Broxton’s WPA was -0.14. With a low strand rate and a high BABIP (.328), however, he figures to improve going forward. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times, we find that Broxton’s ’08 performance (2.91) fit right in with his 2006 (3.33) and 2007 (2.75) showings.

Though he didn’t fare especially well in high-leverage moments in 2008, Broxton still possesses all the skills necessary to become one of the best relievers in the NL. He’ll more than likely get the chance to prove his closer worthiness, as Takashi Saito was recently non-tendered due to concerns over the condition of his elbow. With the ability to miss bats by the bushel, Broxton figures to tackle hitters in the late innings in 2009.

Francisco Rodriguez had a fantastic season in 2008, where he set the single-season save record and was the most valuable relief pitcher in fantasy baseball. But conventional wisdom says to avoid Rodriguez this year in fantasy drafts. It would be one thing if analysts said that he was likely to have 20 fewer saves this season and left it at that. Instead, they talk about how Rodriguez has had four years of declining peripherals and is on the verge of losing his effectiveness as a relief pitcher.

Rodriguez has declining peripherals has been repeated so often that it is now virtually an urban myth. And like with all urban myths, you should politely nod and completely ignore it.

In 2004, Rodriguez had a 13.18 K/9 ratio. Anyone who expected him to maintain that rate the rest of his career was not being realistic. His 10.14 K/9 in 2008 was the 15th-best mark in the majors. Rodriguez is in a lose-lose scenario with analysts in regards to his strikeout rate. Any higher and they would claim it was unsustainable. And now that it’s not in the top 10, it’s a huge warning sign that he’s lost his stuff.

To further back up this point, people will tell you that his velocity has shown a similar drop the past few seasons. In 2006, his average fastball velocity was 94.8 mph while last year it was 91.9, a significant drop.

Rodriguez himself claims that the velocity drop last year was due to his adding a changeup. He intentionally threw his fastball with less velocity in order to keep his changeup delivery consistent. Furthermore, Rodriguez claims that he has mastered the changeup and that the delivery is no longer an issue.

Now, it’s one thing to make those kinds of proclamations. It’s another thing entirely for them to stand up to the scrutiny of examining numbers. Did Rodriguez throw harder later in the year than he did at the beginning?

Yes.

According to Dan Brooks’ PitchFX tool, in his outing on April 29, Rodriguez’ average fastball was 91.99 mph while his maximum checked in at 92.6. Fast forward to September and we see a different story. On September 24 his average was 93.67 while his maximum was 95.3. And that is not cherry picking his best September performance. Check any of his outings in the month and you will see average and maximum velocities significantly higher than what he did in April and more in line with what he did in 2006, his top average velocity year for the four seasons in which we have data.

The doubters will then turn to his walk rate. Last year, Rodriguez allowed 4.48 BB/9, a truly bad number. But this doesn’t fit into the declining peripherals storyline, as he posted a 4.54 mark the previous season. Additionally, we see that Rodriguez struggled with walks in April. In 2008, he had six outings in which he gave up two or more walks and four of those came in the first month of the season.

In the second half of last year, Rodriguez had a 2.73 BB/9. And if we just eliminate April, his BB/9 was 3.97, nearly half a walk per game lower than it was for the entire season.

Another factor to consider in addition to working in a new pitch is that Rodriguez suffered from an ankle injury in April.

Now we have the additional knowledge that Rodriguez will be pitching in the National League in 2009. He won’t have to face designated hitters, frequently one of the top hitters on an opposing team. And while Rodriguez won’t get to face any pitchers, last year pinch hitters in the National League posted a .229/.317/.345 line. Now, Rodriguez will likely fact the top PH but they will still produce lines inferior to the designated hitters he is used to facing.

Taken all together, there is no sound reason to predict a massive decline for Rodriguez in 2009. Yes, his save numbers will likely take a big hit. But given his age, track record and switch to the National League there is no reason not to slot him as one of the top relievers in the game. While others may back away from Rodriguez, this gives smart fantasy owners a chance to get one of the top relievers in the game at a relative bargain.

The Indians recently signed Kerry Wood to a 2-year deal with a vesting option for a third year. What does this mean for your fantasy team in 2009?

The headline says it all: Wood was excellent last year. He posted a 3.26 ERA, but that came with a 2.32 FIP and a 3.16 tRA* (which translates to a 2.76 ERA). Wood had an excellent 84/18 K/BB ratio in 66 innings, and allowed a .331 BABIP, which is likely to regress. Wood did benefit from a lower-than-normal home run rate, as only 6.2% of his fly balls became homers, a number that will likely be higher in 2009.

Wood’s statistics also may suffer from a switch from the National League over to the American League. However, Wood was so fantastic in 2008 that his ERA should remain low once again in 09, even in the more difficult league. Furthermore, Wood will be locked in to closer duties on what should be a very good Indians team, thus getting him a lot of save opportunities.

The one knock with Wood is his fragility. There’s no denying his injury history, and no one knows how he’ll hold up as a reliever for a second straight year. However, Wood did manage 66 innings in 2008 and escaped the season virtually unscathed. Wood’s injury concerns may be overblown by other people in your league, perhaps driving his value downward.

Wood looks like he’ll be a solid value in fantasy leagues, available after the top tier of closers have been taken. He should rack up saves as well as strikeouts, and should help you in ERA and WHIP as well. You will have to be vigilant about any injury concerns, and you might be well advised to pick up Wood’s likely replacement (probably Jensen Lewis) at the first sign of an injury. If you are able to do that, you minimize the damage that a Wood injury would inflict upon your team, while reaping the benefits that a healthy Kerry Wood will bring.

Kerry Wood is a good bet to provide excellent value for you, and finding closers at a value price is one of the most important skills a fantasy player can have.

With veteran Trevor Hoffman possibly ending his 16-year relationship with the San Diego Padres, the familiar late-game tune of AC/DC’s “Hell’s Bells” may no longer blare through the speakers at Petco Park. However, another Bell might step into the all-time save leader’s role: Heath Bell (may I suggest Metallica’s “For Whom The Bell Tolls”?) The 31 year-old had to wait an awfully long time to get his shot in the majors, but he has done excellent work for the Fathers over the past two seasons.

Bell was originally selected by the Tampa Bay (then) Devil Rays in the 69th round of the 1997 draft. Suffice it to say, the 1583rd pick in the draft was not considered much of a prospect at the time. The hefty right-hander never signed on the dotted line with Tampa, and he went undrafted the following June. Bell was eventually scooped up by the New York Mets.

Despite his lack of scouting support, Bell often dominated in the minor leagues. In 468.1 frames, he whiffed 10.4 batters per nine innings, while issuing a solid 2.5 BB/9. Despite the more than 4-to-1 K/BB ratio, the 6-3, 240 pounder did not make his Queens debut until 2004, at the age of 26. In 24.1 innings for the Mets that season, Bell struck out 27 and surrendered 6 free passes.

The next two seasons, Bell would dominate the International League while shuttling back and forth between Norfolk and New York. His peripherals were excellent (78/24 K/BB in 83.2 combined innings with the Mets), but Bell was the recipient of some insanely poor luck on balls put in play: his BABIP was .374 in 2005 and an astronomical .394 in 2006. With every hitter turning into Ted Williams when the ball was put in play, Bell’s ERA was well over five during ’05 and ’06.

Apparently feeling that Bell was lousy as opposed to unlucky, the Mets shipped Heath (along with lefty Royce Ring) to the Padres for Jon Adkins and Ben Johnson following the 2006 season.

Finally liberated, Bell would post one of the better relief seasons in the game in 2007. Shouldering a very heavy workload (appearing in 81 games and tossing 93.2 innings), Bell posted a 2.50 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). Using a mid-90’s heater and a low 80’s slider, Bell punched out 9.8 batters per nine innings and walked 2.88. Bell led all relievers in innings pitched and appeared in the 6th-most games. His 3.47 WPA ranked 6th among all relievers, sandwiched between Joakim Soria and newly-minted Met Francisco Rodriguez.

Bell’s 2008 season wasn’t as dominant, though he still turned in another quality campaign. With 8.19 K/9 and 3.23 BB/9, Bell posted a 3.34 FIP. His fastball usage increased from 64% to 72%, but the offering lost over a tick in terms of speed (down to 93.4 MPH). His Contact% increased from 75.4% in ’07 to 79.5% in ’08, suggesting that his stuff was down a bit compared to his crazy 2007 season.

After his frequent usage in 2007 and more heavy lifting during the first half of the ’08 season (46 G, 50.1 IP during the first half), Bell seemed to tire down the stretch. After posting a 42/13 K/BB ratio before the All-Star break, the Oceanside, California native struggled with his control late in the season (29/15 K/BB, 19 R in 27.2 IP during the second half). Bell’s heater peaked at 94.4 MPH during June, but he was down to 92.3 MPH by September.

Take a look at Bell’s pitch F/X data from 2007 compared to 2008:

2007

Fastball: -4.3 X, 9.36 Z
Slider: 5.34 X, -2.69 Z

2008

Fastball: -1.32 X, 9.44 Z
Slider: 4.22 X, -1.91 Z

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

In addition to a drop in speed, Bell’s fastball lost about 3 inches of horizontal movement, meaning the pitch was not tailing in on right-handers nearly as much. His slider also wasn’t quite as sharp, with less break away from righties and less “tilt” down in the zone. Perhaps it was just a blip on the radar or the product of inherently small samples when dealing with relievers, but Bell went from stifling righties in ’07 (.157/.216/.203) to giving up a good deal of extra base hits against them in 2008 (.254/.307/.435).

Bell may well be in line to take over for Hoffman in San Diego, and he has produced one otherworldly season followed by another impressive showing in 2008. However, there are some danger signs here: Bell has tossed a combined 171.2 innings over the past two seasons, as strenuous a workload as any reliever has faced. His strikeout rate took a pretty large dip, down about 1.6 per nine innings, and his fastball lost both speed and movement. Perhaps an offseason of rest will help abate some of these trends, but it seems possible that Bell’s work over the past two years will go down as the highlight of his career.

As is, Bell is still a pretty good reliever. Just don’t expect the 2007 version to come trotting out of that bullpen gate, no matter what tune he settles on as his ninth-inning ditty.

It may not be as glamorous or as lucrative as being a starting pitcher in the Majors, but taking a stroll to the bullpen can save your career… just ask Joel Hanrahan and Steven Shell, both of whom pitch for the Washington Nationals.

Hanrahan, 27, was a second round draft pick of the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2000 after a distinguished high school pitching career. The right-hander looked primed for an excellent Major League career after a solid 2003 season in Double-A, but that was not to be – for a few years, anyway.

Hanrahan became far more hittable at Triple-A in 2004 (9.7 H/9) and his control regressed (3.6 BB/9 in 2003 to 5.7 BB/9 in 2004). During the next two seasons, he cut back on the hits allowed, but his control continued to be an issue.

After seven seasons in the LA organization, Hanrahan signed with Washington as a minor league free agent prior to the 2007 season. He remained in the starting rotation for Triple-A Columbus and pitched well for the first half of the season, earning a promotion to the Majors for the first time. In 12 appearances for the Nationals, Hanrahan posted a 6.08 FIP and allowed 59 hits in 51 innings. He also posted rates of 6.71 BB/9 and 7.59 K/9. Obviously that walk rate won’t get it done at the Major League level.

Hanrahan showed enough potential to earn another shot at a big league gig – but this time as a reliever. He shifted to the bullpen full-time in 2008 and his career was resurrected. In 69 games, Hanrahan allowed 73 hits in 84.1 innings of work. He posted significantly-improved rates of 4.48 BB/9 and 9.92 K/9. His groundball rate jumped from 30.6 percent to 42.6 percent.

One of the biggest reasons for Hanrahan’s success – at least on the surface – was a significant improvement in his “stuff.” The fastball jumped from an average of 91.7 mph in 2007 to 95.2 mph in 2008, which is a huge increase for any pitcher. Hanrahan’s slider went from 82.4 mph to 85.3 mph. The move also allowed him to focus on those two pitches and his change-up usage dropped from 11.5 percent to 1.9 percent.

Shell was selected out of high school in the third round of the 2001 draft by the Los Angeles Angels. Like Hanrahan, Shell began his pro career as a highly-regarded starting pitcher. In 2004, in High-A ball, the right-hander fanned 190 batters in 165.1 innings and allowed just 151 hits while playing his home games in a hitter’s park.

During the next two seasons, in Double-A and Triple-A, he became much more hittable and posted hit rates of 9.9 H/9 in 2005 and 11.7 H/9 in 2006. Unlike Harahan, though, Shell’s control remained very good, including a rate of 2.3 BB/9 in 2006 at Triple-A.

The Angels moved Shell to the bullpen in 2007 – although he also made seven starts at Triple-A – with mixed results. He posted a 5.39 FIP and allowed 83 hits in 70.1 innings of work. After the season he was allowed to leave the organization as a minor league free agent. Shell, now 25, signed with Washington.

He began 2008 in the Triple-A bullpen. The right-hander posted a 3.34 FIP and posted rates of 2.16 BB/9 and 8.33 K/9, earning himself a promotion to the Major Leagues for the very first time. Shell allowed just 34 hits in 50 innings for the Nationals, and he posted rates of 3.60 BB/9 and 7.38 K/9. His ERA was 2.16, but his FIP was 4.11.

While Hanrahan has better pure stuff than Shell, the latter gets by with better command and control, as well as a good mix of pitches. His repertoire includes an 89 mph fastball, a curveball (which he uses almost 28% of the time), a slider and a change-up.

The closer gig in Washington is wide open for 2009, although Hanrahan may have the inside track after saving nine games in 2008. Shell’s diverse repertoire invokes similarities to Angels’ super-set-up man Scot Shields (although he throws about 3 mph faster on average than Shell). With questionable starting pitching and a less-than-threatening offence, the Nationals may end up winning a lot of close games (not to say they’ll win a lot of games – just that the games they win will not be blowouts), which could create quite a few save opportunities.

One of the game’s top closers in 2005 and 2006, B.J. Ryan came down with an elbow injury in 2007 that required Tommy John surgery. Ryan was back pitching in 2008 and after a month regained his closer’s job. He posted a solid season in his first year back but was not quite the pitcher he was before the surgery.

None of Ryan’s ratios matched what he did in the two years prior to the operation. The most significant drop came in his BB/9. Command was a problem for him since entering the majors in 1999. But Ryan nevertheless saw his BB/9 fall four consecutive years, bottoming out at a nifty 2.49 in 2006. But that number was 4.34 last year.

His Zone% fell from 56.9 percent to in 2006 to 52.1 percent and his F-Strike% dropped from 67.8 percent to 59.0 percent. Those numbers were far from elite for relievers in 2006 and fell to poor levels last year.

Ryan had a nearly two-mph drop in velocity to go along with his command problems, but batters were unable to take advantage. His BABIP was .285 despite a 19.4 percent line drive rate. And while he did give up a fair amount of fly balls (41.9%), batters hit only 6.2 percent of those for home runs. This good fortune resulted in an ERA (2.95) noticeably lower than his FIP (3.68).

The positives are that Ryan was able to come back so soon after surgery and pitch so well with diminished stuff. His velocity was the same in September that it was in April. But if Ryan is going to improve in 2009, he is going to have to reduce his walk rate as it is unlikely that he will be as lucky on batted balls next year as he was in 2008.

Ryan faces no serious competition for the team’s closer role and the $20 million owed him over the next two seasons makes it unlikely he would be dealt to a team and converted into a setup man. He is a safe bet for 30-plus saves and he remains a top strikeout artist, as his 58 strikeouts in 58 innings last year showed.

But ultimately his value will be determined via his WHIP and ERA. Ryan is a high-end number-two closer in a 12-team league, with the potential to do more if he can get his walks under control. But expecting him to be an elite closer again on draft day is a risky move.

In 2006 and 2007 J.J. Putz was one of the top closers in baseball. In those two years he notched 76 saves and struck out 186 batters in 150 innings while posting WHIPs under 1.000 each season. But injuries dogged him in 2008 as he suffered through a strained oblique and a hyperextended right elbow.

The velocity was there for Putz last year, but his control abandoned him. He averaged 95 mph with his fastball, which was a tick higher than it was in 2007, but his BB/9 jumped from 1.63 to 5.44 in 2008. The final month of the season offered hope for Putz, as he posted 13 strikeouts and two walks in eight innings.

Putz gave up a few more line drives last year (20.2 percent versus 17.0 percent in ’07) but his other numbers were right in line with what he did in his outstanding 2007 season. His arm is healthy, his velocity is there (PitchFX had him at 98.5 in his final game of the season) and there is no discernible difference in his skill set other than the walks.

Fantasy players should monitor his control over results in Spring Training. Assuming he shows no Steve Blass tendencies, Putz has a chance to be one of the most undervalued players on Draft Day next season. There are trade rumors surrounding him this off-season, but that has more to do with the value of a top-flight closer on a 101-loss team than any issues regarding his health. Regardless of which team he ends up with, Putz should be one of the top three-to-five closers taken.

Brad Ziegler had a historic beginning to his career, but he wasn’t the only Athletics reliever to post gaudy numbers and set a record during the 2008 season. Joey Devine, a former 1st-round selection by the Atlanta Braves out of North Carolina State, finally made good use of his closer-worthy stuff after a change of scenery. Devine posted huge strikeout rates in the minors (13.18 K/9), but his control (4.03 BB/9) held him back and he never really got much of an opportunity in several cups of coffee with the Braves from 2005 to 2007. In fact, most Braves fans will probably remember Devine for being the first pitcher in major league history to give up grand slams in his first two appearances.

With the Braves looking for an everyday centerfielder, Devine was shipped to the A’s in exchange for Mark Kotsay last winter. Given his first extended big-league opportunity, Devine would go on to stake his claim to the late innings in Oakland:

45.2 IP, 0.59 ERA, 9.66 K/9, 2.96 BB/9

Devine’s 0.59 ERA was the lowest ever for a pitcher tossing at least 40 innings. While his peripherals were very good and his Fielding Independent ERA was also excellent (1.97), Devine obviously had some bounces go his way. He did not surrender a single home run, something that will assuredly change in 2009 given his fly ball tendencies (38.8 GB%). Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA(XFIP), which uses an average HR/FB rate, we find that Devine’s ERA “should” have been 3.28 once we account for the fluky home run luck.

Devine’s stuff is plenty good, as he utilizes a 93.1 MPH fastball and a biting 81 MPH slider. As Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X blog shows, Devine’s heater has a solid combination of horizontal (5.29 inches) and vertical (9.3 inches) movement. His slider also gets a ton of horizontal break (5.53 inches) away from righties.

If there’s a long-term concern regarding Devine, it’s his possible susceptibility to southpaw batters. During his minor league career, he allowed a .308 average to lefties, walking 6.80 batters per nine innings. As this photo nicely shows, Devine has a low, almost side-arm delivery that gives left-handers a good long look at the ball. However, in 109 career PA versus lefties in the majors, Devine has posted a .661 OPS.

Devine also missed nearly two months with a strained elbow, which could be related to a timing problem in his delivery. As this photo shows, Devine’s arm is in a horizontal position at “foot strike” (the point at which his front foot lands). Ideally, you’d like the arm to be in a high-cocked/ready (vertical) position when that foot lands. Devine’s timing issue likely puts more stress on his elbow than need be.

Joey Devine is an intriguing talent, possessing a nasty fastball/slider combo that could lead to closing opportunities if Huston Street departs via trade. Keep an eye on the Oakland rumor mill this offseason. If Street leaves, you might want to target Devine as an efficient alternative to bigger-name relievers who will be selected earlier on draft day.