Seattle Mariners’ right-hander Brandon Morrow has endured a rather bizarre professional career to this point. A high-octane starter at Cal, Morrow was selected 5th overall by the M’s in the 2006 amateur draft. Baseball America dubbed him “owner of perhaps the best pure arm in the draft”, noting his ability to sit in the mid-90’s with his heat while supplementing it with a sharp mid-80’s slider and a work-in-progress changeup.

In most organizations, such a talent would have been sent to A-Ball in order to develop those secondary offerings and gradually build the arm strength and stamina necessary to become a complete starting pitcher. However, with the always inscrutable Bill Bavasi running the show, Morrow scarcely saw the minors at all. Rather, he was pigeonholed in the major league bullpen to begin the 2007 season.

The move was about as enlightened as giving the Mariner Moose an on-field ATV. The 22 year-old did what you would expect a green-as-grass rookie to do when shoved to the bigs: he pumped 95 MPH fastball after fastball (thrown 80% of the time), while displaying control that only Bob Uecker could spin-doctor. In 63.1 frames, Morrow managed to whiff 9.38 batters per nine on the basis of his immense raw talent, but he handed out free passes like Aquafina, with 7.11 BB/9.

The 6-3, 180 pounder was again relegated to relief work to begin the 2008 campaign. In 36.2 frames out of the ‘pen, Morrow singed opposing batters with 47 K’s (11.5 per nine), with modest improvement in the walk department (15, or 3.7 BB/9). Just over two years after expending such a high draft pick on Morrow and then devaluing their asset by rushing him, the M’s decided to transition the former Golden Bear ace to the rotation in early August. Morrow was sent to AAA Tacoma to get stretched out, where he punched out 10.03 batters per nine with 4.24 BB/9.

Recalled in early September, Morrow made five starts for Seattle down the stretch. The results were uneven, but occasionally dazzling. He gave up six earned runs versus offensive weaklings Oakland and Kansas City, but also turned in an absolute gem versus the Yankees on September 5th (7.2 IP, 1 H, 1R, 3BB, 8K) in which he showcased a devastating arsenal. Overall, Morrow the starter struck out a batter per inning (28 K in 28 IP), while showing characteristic control hiccups (19 BB).

The Mariners (now mercifully under the care of player development guru Jack Zduriencik) seemed intent on making Morrow a permanent member of the rotation in 2009, but circumstances have changed. After dealing with forearm tightness earlier this spring, Morrow has claimed to be more comfortable in the ‘pen, and the M’s will apparently acquiesce.

Whether this is a good thing for the long-term prospects of the franchise is certainly debatable: even the most talented, highly-leveraged relievers don’t produce the same level of value as a starter does (a large quantity of good innings trumps a small quantity of great frames). However, between Morrow’s forearm issues, diabetic condition and comfort in the bullpen, perhaps the choice was not so straightforward.

Morrow obviously becomes the top man in a bullpen that figures to be a consortium of trade acquisitions, waiver claims and home-grown hopefuls. His wicked fastball/slider combo should sufficiently eviscerate right-handers, and the development of a reliable third offering (he threw a splitter/changeup about 10% of the time in ’08) becomes less of an issue while only having to deal with lefties one time through the order. Morrow still has some kinks to work out in terms of catching the plate on a more regular basis, but he comes equipped with the tools to shipwreck opposing batters in the late innings.

The Royals picked Joakim Soria in the Rule 5 draft from the Padres. Two days later he pitched a perfect game in the Mexican League. Soria has a starting pitcher’s repertoire and is one of the few closers to throw four pitches. He will not blow you away with his fastball, but Soria has very good command and he puts batters away with his curve.

FanGraphs shows Soria throwing his curve just under 10 percent of the time. ESPN shows Soria throwing his hook 25 percent of the time when he gets to two strikes on a batter. Overall, opponents hit just .048 against Soria’s deuce.

Soria had nearly a 3.5:1 SO/BB ratio last year. He also did a fine job of keeping the ball in the park, as he allowed only five home runs in 67.1 innings. Batters swung at just 61.7 percent of pitches by Soria in the strike zone, a figure that ranked 19th among all relievers last year. Additionally, he induced swings on balls outside the zone 27.4 percent of the time.

But, much like Mariano Rivera, there are warning signs around Soria, too. He had a microscopic .215 BABIP last year. He also had an 89.5 percent strand rate. Not surprisingly, Soria’s FIP was 3.25 or more than twice his regular ERA. None of these should be dismissed lightly.

Still, on the plus side of the ledger we have Soria’s age (he’ll turn 25 in May), command, repertoire, ability to keep the ball in the park and lack of platoon split. In his brief career, lefties have a .167/.242/.255 line against Soria. So if you want a relief pitcher in the first 10 rounds, the Royals closer is a relative bargain with an ADP of 97.

After three straight seasons of declining saves totals, Mariano Rivera rebounded to post 39 in 2009, his highest total since he notched 43 in 2005. Rivera is a wonder, but he faces long odds to match his saves total from last year in 2009. Trevor Hoffman is the only pitcher in MLB history to post 39 or more saves at age 39 (or above), the age Rivera will be this season.

Yet the mock draft crowd has faith in Rivera, making him on average the fifth reliever picked in drafts. He has an ADP of 83, making him a late-seventh-round pick. Assuming you want a reliever at that spot, is Rivera a good choice?

There has been no drop-off in velocity with his famous cutter and Rivera has been able to maintain excellent K/9 numbers.

But there are three factors that helped Rivera to his outstanding 2008 season, when he was the second-best reliever in the game behind Francisco Rodriguez. First, Rivera had a .232 BABIP, over 100 points lower than he did in 2007. Second, he posted the lowest walk rate of his career with a 0.76 BB/9 mark. And third, Rivera had the highest strand rate of his career with an 87.6 percent LOB%.

Rivera has had an ERA under two in five of the last six years. There is no reason to expect him to fall off a cliff in 2009. But given his age and his incredible peripherals last season, there is not much reason to expect a repeat of 2008, either. The mock drafters are knocking him down but I would suggest not far enough.

Instead of Rivera in the seventh round, why not wait a round and take Joakim Soria, he of the 97 ADP? Or wait two rounds and take Jose Valverde, he of the back-to-back 40-save seasons. These two pitchers do not have the name recognition of Rivera, but are likely to put up comparable or better seasons as the venerable Yankees closer.

The ninth inning has been a tumultuous time for St. Louis Cardinals fans in recent years – with the 2008 season being no different. Three players saved seven or more games last year: starter-turned-reliever Ryan Franklin (3.55 ERA) with 17, former closer Jason Isringhausen (5.70) with 12 and rookie Chris Perez (3.46) with seven. Although he appeared in 41 games, Perez is still a rookie for 2009 in most people’s eyes because he did not surpass the magical 50 IP mark.

Isringhausen, now with Tampa Bay, was the Cardinals go-to guy for much of his seven seasons in St. Louis and he saved 217 games. However, he was never a truly dominating closer and he blew 38 save opportunities his seven seasons. Isringhausen also struggled mightily in 2006 and 2008 with a total of 17 blown saves in 62 opportunities. Although Franklin saved 17 games in 2008, he is not considered the long-term solution given his average stuff, eight blown saves last year and age (36).

The future likely belongs to former college closer Perez, although manager Tony LaRussa is not going to entrust a young pitcher in such a vital position without absolute proof that he is the best man for the job. Perez had a solid debut season with 34 hits allowed in 41.2 innings of work. He posted a respectable strikeout rate at 9.07 K/9 but he struggled with his control (which has been the knock on him) by posting a rate of 4.75 BB/9. Perez relied heavily on two pitches out of the pen: a fastball that averaged 95 mph, and a slider.

So far this spring, he has allowed three runs in five innings, with three strikeouts and three walks. Fellow rookie Jason Motte – another hard-throwing reliever albeit with less polish – has allowed just one earned run in five innings but also has seven strikeouts and no walks. Perez has one save on the spring, while Motte, a 26-year-old converted catcher, has two. It’s clear that Perez is not going to be handed the closer’s role this April when teams break camp. He has plenty of competition and LaRussa could simply go with a closer-by-committee or simply call on the pitcher with the hot hand – or play match-ups.

Over time, though, Perez should be the favorite to earn saves in St. Louis for the long haul. In 2009, expect a 3.50 ERA with 10-12 saves in 65 innings pitched with about 30 walks and 70 strikeouts. If he does worm his way into a more regular role as the team’s closer, be prepared to snap him up.

With southpaw Brian Fuentes defecting to the Angels via free agency, the Colorado Rockies are left without a go-to guy in the ninth inning for the first time in a few seasons. Not that this is necessarily the end of days for the club: as Fuentes (a 25th-round pick by the Mariners back in 1995) himself showed, closers are made, not born. With relief pitching being a volatile practice (save for cutter demigod Mariano Rivera), paying through the nose for one guy to toss 70-odd innings is not an advisable strategy.

The Rockies will now choose between two candidates to rack up the glory stat in 2009: home-grown righty Manny Corpas and trade acquisition Huston Street. Depending upon the health of his elbow, born-again reliever Taylor Buchholz may also factor into the picture at some point.

Signed out of Panama in 1999, Corpas threw nearly 80 innings for the Rockies in each of the past two seasons. While the surface results might appear divergent (he posted a sparkling 2.08 ERA in ’07 and a 4.52 mark in ’08), the underlying numbers were pretty similar. Corpas was neither the relief ace of 2007 nor the Farnsworthian gas can of 2008: his FIP was 3.60 in ’07 (with 6.69 K/9 and 2.31 BB/9) and 3.96 in ’08, as his strikeout and walk rates trended a bit south (5.65 K/9, 2.6 BB/9) and his GB% went from 57.4% to 49.6%.

The main difference? Corpas posted a .260 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) in 2007, but regression to the mean struck back nastily in ’08 (.330 BABIP). Truth be told, Corpas is probably more middle reliever than high-leverage stopper. His low-90’s fastball (his average velocity fell from 93.1 MPH in ’07 to 91.7 MPH in ’08) and 80 MPH slider don’t fool a whole lot of batters.

Picked up in the Matt Holliday deal, Street sort of comes with the Proven Closer (TM) tag, as he has racked up 94 saves in his career. An absolute beast at the University of Texas, Street has fallen into the realm of merely very good as a professional. With a career 2.90 FIP, 9.07 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9, the near-side-arming slider specialist would appear to be the front man for the job, but recent reports indicate that Corpas holds the edge. Street is dealing with a sore quadriceps muscle after experiencing elbow issues in the past, and he is coming off of his worst year in the big leagues. He whiffed 8.87 batters per nine, but control hiccups (3.47 BB/9) led to a 3.47 FIP and a demotion behind submariner Brad Ziegler in Oakland.

Buchholz had rejuvenated his career out of the ‘pen, but an elbow sprain will sideline him for at least the beginning of the 2009 season. Buchholz (no relation to Clay) was once a hot-shot prospect in the Phillies system. He was considered by the Astros to be a major component of the November 2003 trade that sent Billy Wagner to Philadelphia. Taylor looked like the quintessential pitching prospect, standing 6-4, 220 pounds and throwing gas, but Buchholz was hit hard and often as an Astro, both in the majors (5.18 FIP in 2006) and in AAA (his career ERA at the level is 5.02).

The Rockies snagged Buchholz in a December 2006 trade that sent ticking time bomb Jason Jennings to the Astros. After a run of poor starts in 2007 (43.2 IP, 5.98 ERA), Colorado decided to try Buchholz’s low-90’s heat and hard curveball out of the bullpen, and the results have been impressive. He spent the entire ’08 campaign in relief, posting rates of 7.6 K/9 and 2.44 BB/9. His 2.17 ERA was misleading- Buchholz did have plenty of good fortune on balls in play (.234 BABIP) and had a lower HR/FB rate- but his stuff and peripherals suggest that he could be a solid bullpen cog.

As a member of the Angels organization, right-hander Bobby Jenks was something of a mythological figure. The gargantuan 6-3, 280 pounder, selected in the 5th round of the 2000 amateur draft, often had radar guns begging for mercy as he sat in the upper-90’s and hit triple-digits on occasion. With that hopping heater, Jenks mauled minor league hitters (9.4 K/9), but his control (an astounding 6.01 BB/9) and temperament left much to be desired.

Despite Jenks’ gifts, the Angels eventually grew tired of the flame-thrower’s antics and punted him off the 40-man roster in December of 2004. The White Sox stepped up and claimed the volatile-but-talented arm, and the club has been rewarded handsomely for its leap of faith.

Jenks burst onto the scene during Chicago’s World Series run in 2005, punching out 11.44 batters per nine innings in 39.1 frames. His control (3.43 BB/9) was just fair, but he managed a 2.69 FIP while showing off a 97 MPH fastball as well as two hard breaking balls (an 88 MPH slider and an 83.5 MPH curve).

The portly righty displayed many of the same attributes in 2006. In 69.2 innings, Jenks used a slightly-less searing 95.8 MPH heater and his hard breaking stuff to post rates of 10.33 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9. Despite the occasional bouts of wildness, Jenks used his ability to miss bats and a newfound tendency to keep the ball on the ground (his GB% improved from 44.6% in ’05 to 58.8% in ’06) to compile a 3.20 FIP.

After two seasons of dominating hitters and allowing a few too many free passes, Jenks performed like a different sort of hurler in 2007. His K rate fell precipitously, from over 10 K/9 down to 7.75. However, he cut his walk rate by more than half (1.8 BB/9) and continued to burn worms (53.8 GB%). Jenks’ blistering upper-90’s cheese was now sitting in the 94 MPH range. The shape of his production was different, but Jenks posted the best K/BB ratio (4.31) and FIP (2.56) of his career.

2008 continued Bobby’s trend of missing fewer bats. A few short years after posting a double-digit whiff rate, Jenks struck out just 5.55 batters per nine innings, while walking 2.48 per nine. His groundball rate (57.6%) remained quite high and his FIP was still a fair 3.41, but clearly the present version of Jenks is not the same fire-breathing mountain man that was on display in Los Angeles’ farm system or in Chicago during his early days there. Jenks was once fairly difficult to make contact with, but opposing hitters have progressively had an easier time putting the bat on the ball:

Jenks’ Contact Rate, 2005-2008:
2005: 74.5%
2006: 77.8%
2007: 79.1%
2008: 84.5%

Jenks’ 2008 contact rate was one of the highest among all relievers. Residing close to Bobby were names such as Ryan Franklin, Brian Bass and Franquelis Osoria.

Bobby Jenks’ transformation from flame-throwing folklore to finesse pitching has been fascinating to watch. Chicago’s plus-sized closer has remained effective to this point (his 3.47 WPA in ’08 was a career-best), but it would probably be best to tread cautiously here instead of investing a high pick. Jenks could well remain effective with plus control and groundball tendencies, but his descending strikeout rate and back issues bear watching.

There is a lot of disagreement among fantasy players about when to start taking relief pitchers. The one thing that most agree upon is that the first one to take is Jonathan Papelbon. The Red Sox closer has a three-year track record of success, pitches for a team that should clear 90 wins and is a young 28, with only 230 major league innings on his arm. Papelbon has an ADP of 54, which means that fantasy players start targeting relievers in the middle of the fifth round.

Papelbon’s K/9 fell from an otherworldly 12.96 in 2007 to 10.00 last year. But he compensated by cutting his walks in half. His BB/9 checked in last year at a minuscule 1.04, which was the third-lowest mark for relievers. After back-to-back seasons with a BABIP in the .230s, Papelbon had a .313 mark last year. Combined with a LOB% of 69.5 percent, he saw increases last year in both his WHIP and his ERA.

With a more typical distribution with his LOB% (the only player with 15 or more saves to have a lower rate was Brandon Lyon) Papelbon could easily exceed last year’s overall numbers. And if no pitcher challenges for the all-time saves record, Papelbon could meet pre-season expectations by being the top fantasy closer at the end of the year.

But fantasy players have to ask themselves how much they are willing to pay for Papelbon’s track record. Is it worth taking him in the fifth round, while passing on players like Joe Mauer and Dan Haren? Especially when 30-save pitchers like Kerry Wood and B.J. Ryan are available eight rounds later? Both of those players have had injury problems in the recent past, which makes the Papelbon decision not so cut-and-dried.

The Seattle Mariners enter spring training with a wide-open situation in the bullpen. The M’s will no longer give the ball to J.J. Putz in the ninth inning, as the soon-to-be 32 year-old was shipped to the Mets in a twelve-player package. Also headed to Queens in that swap was groundball specialist Sean Green. After two years of, well, putsing around in the ‘pen, 2006 first-rounder Brandon Morrow will be moved to the rotation on a full-time basis. So, who’s left in that Seattle bullpen? Let’s take a look.

The top returning reliever, per WPA, is righty Roy Corcoran. The smallish 28 year-old turned in a 3.81 FIP and kept his infielders very busy (69.5 GB%), but there’s some question about the repeatability of his work. The former Expo/Nat struck out about as many batters (4.83 K/9) as he walked (4.46 BB/9) and his career minor league walk rate (4.14 BB/9) is rather high as well. Low-K pitchers can be plenty successful by inducing grounders and limiting walks, but Corcoran doesn’t appear to have the control to make that equation work.

Mark Lowe, 28, is coming off of a season in which he posted a 4.42 FIP. He punched out 7.77 batters per nine innings, but his control often evaded him (4.81 BB/9). The 6-3, 200 pounder has long been on prospect lists due to his mid-90’s heat/mid-80’s slider combo, but injuries (shoulder impingement as well as microfracture surgery on his elbow in an effort to regenerate cartilage in the joint) have held him back. If you’re looking for a guy who fits the closer profile from a “stuff” standpoint, it’s probably Lowe.

Like Lowe, David Aardsma is a flame-throwing righty without sharp command. The 27 year-old’s mix of mid-90’s fastballs and hard sliders have yet to produce anything but angst for his employers, as Aardsma has skipped between the Giants, Cubs, White Sox and Red Sox, before ending up in Seattle for minor league southpaw Fabian Williamson. The 2003 first-rounder has fanned his fair share of hitters in the bigs (8.65 K/9), but an atrocious walk rate (5.6 BB/9) has kept him from being anything more than a replacement-level reliever, with a 4.90 FIP. One thing to watch: according to our pitch data, Aardsma started using an upper-80’s splitter (thrown 10.9% of the time) in addition to his fastball and slider. The chances of Aardsma finally delivering are long, but the M’s have some experience with a control-challenged reliever adding a splitter and subsequently taking off.

Tyler Walker, formerly of the Giants, might also be able to work his way into the mix. The 32 year-old posted a 4.24 FIP last season, with 8.27 K/9 and 3.54 BB/9. The 6-3, 275 pounder works in the low 90’s with his fastball, but has progressivley become more reliant on a low 80’s slider (thrown 30% in ’06, 31.4% in ’07 and 40.3% in ’08).

It’s also possible that some of the team’s rotation excess ends up in the ‘pen, particularly lefties Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ryan Feierabend. Rowland-Smith appeared in 47 games last season (12 starts), posting a 4.53 FIP. His fastball won’t overwhelm anyone (88.7 MPH), but he also mixes in a slider, curve and a changeup on a fairly regular basis. Similarly, Feierabend supplements modest heat (87.8 MPH) with three offspeed pitches, relying heavily upon a high-70’s changeup.

Another long-term name to keep in mind is Josh Fields. The former Georgia Bulldog closer was selected by the Braves in the ’07 amateur draft, but the club didn’t meet his bonus demands. After improving his stock during the 2008 season, Fields was nabbed by the M’s with the 20th overall pick and…didn’t sign, at least not right away. The Boras client recently came to terms, however, receiving a bonus nearing $2 million (as a college senior, Fields had up until next June’s draft to negotiate a contract). The 23 year-old righty fits the profile of a late-inning reliever better than any of the current options, as he comes equipped with mid-90’s gas and a hard curveball. The 6-0, 180 pounder is likely the heir apparent to Putz in the long run.

Last year six Rays relievers registered a save. Troy Percival got the majority of those (28 of the 52) when healthy. When he was hurt manager Joe Maddon relied a bit more on the “closer by committee” approach. While Dan Wheeler had 13 saves Grant Balfour seemed to grasp the closer’s role as the season came to a close. In 2009 the closer picture is even muddier.

The Rays will be bringing back every pitcher who recorded a save except Trever Miller (although he was pretty much just a LOOGY). Jason Hammel who recorded 2 saves will not be relied on for closing except perhaps in dire situations. Troy Percival will be back in the bullben, but he was fairly ineffective last year. He posted an ERA of 4.53, a FIP of 5.87, and a K/9 of 7.43. In other words, other than the saves he brought nothing to your fantasy team. He was a nice waiver pickup or late-round addition for cheap saves, but that was about it. Looking at the rest of the bullpen there seems to be four candidates to get the saves: Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler, J.P. Howell, and the newly signed Joe Nelson.

Balfour was one of the best relievers in baseball last year. He was utterly dominant with a FIP of 2.22, an ERA of 1.54, and a K/9 of 12.65. To put these numbers in perspective, he had the best K/9 of any reliever in baseball and was fourth in FIP. He was a welcome addition to any fantasy team even without the saves.

Dan Wheeler had a decent year to go with the saves. His strikeout numbers were not great (7.19 K/9), but he posted a pretty good ERA (3.12). I do worry about him going forward as he once again posted a FIP north of 4 (4.49 to be exact) due to his long-ball tendencies. Hid ERA was bolstered by a BABIP of .202 which implies that he should be in for a healthy dose of regression.

J.P. Howell was the second-best reliever in the bullpen. He did not have Balfour’s insane K-rate, his was only 9.27, but he did have a very good FIP/ERA (3.39/2.22). One would expect his ERA to regress a bit, but the defense behind him next year will still be one of the best in baseball. He probably will not be able to repeat the .259 BABIP, but the team allowed only a .288 BABIP for all pitchers (tops in baseball).

The last real option is the recently signed Joe Nelson. Last year he had an ERA of 2.00, a FIP of 3.45, and a K/9 of 10.00. He was very good last year for the Marlins, and he will try to repeat that performance after moving into the division in baseball.

I would imagine that all five of these pitchers will be used in save situations. The trick is finding which will provide the greatest benefit to your team. I rarely draft a proven closer in most leagues because they generally go to high for me and are much too volatile. Situations like these are where I get my saves. Late round picks that rotate in and out of the roster when they are getting saves. With the Rays bullpen, a few things stand out. There seems to be two camps of relievers in the Rays closer situation: the effective ones and the ones with closer experience. Percival and Wheeler fall in the latter, with the rest in the former group. The less effective options may be the ones that fill the closer role, but I would bet the other camp gets their share of saves as well. Howell is probably the least likely to see the bulk of the saves because he is so effective at getting tough lefties out or pitching multiple innings. I would stay away from Percival if there is any issue with injury at the beginning of the season (he was far more effective before his first DL stint). Wheeler will not bring any value if he is not getting the saves. This leaves the two that I would target for my team: Balfour and Nelson. Both should have good ERAs and a lot of Ks out of the bullpen (which is a nice addition). If either of those gets put in the closer role, then I would expect either to be a top 5-10 fantasy reliever. You should be able to get either relatively cheaply (especially Nelson who will not be on most people’s fantasy radars).

Earlier today, we took a gander at high-octane closer candidate Chris Perez. However, Perez is not the only home-grown, gas-pumping reliever who could take over ninth-inning duties for the Cardinals. Many envision Perez becoming St. Louis’ stopper, but Jason Motte poses a formidable roadblock.

While Perez was a well-regarded prospect, developed at a major college program (The University of Miami) that has churned out plenty of high draft picks as of late, Motte’s baseball origins are far less conventional or glamorous. The 6-0, 195 pounder was originally selected in the 19th round of the 2003 draft out of Iona as a catcher. Motte was always lauded for his superb arm strength behind the dish. But the whole…batting thing? It wasn’t really working out. In 614 career minor league at-bats, Motte “hit” a ghastly .191/.220/.233.

Thoroughly convinced that Motte was unable to handle professional pitching, the Cardinals organization decided to shift him to the mound in 2006, hoping that his cannon arm would translate well. Motte worked a total of 39 innings split between State College (New York Penn League) and Quad Cities (Low-A), and the initial results were promising: he posted a 38/7 K/BB ratio with a 2.69 ERA.

The following year, Motte spend just 10 innings with Palm Beach of the High-A Florida State League before being pushed up to AA Springfield, quite the leap for a converted catcher with less than 50 career innings under his belt to that point. Despite his inexperience, Motte made opposing batters look like they were the ones new to their craft, collecting 63 strikeouts in just 49 innings. His control was less than desirable (22 free passes), but he posted a solid 2.96 FIP for Springfield.

St. Louis continued to move Motte through the system aggressively this past season, starting him off at AAA Memphis. Motte had made a habit of missing plenty of bats during his rapid ascent, but his strikeout numbers in the Pacific Coast League were borderline ridiculous: in 66.2 innings, he punched out an absurd 110 batters (14.85 K/9). That figure led the PCL among pitchers tossing at least 60 frames: Dirk Hayhurst finished a very, very distant second with 10.5 K/9. Motte was still occasionally wild (3.51 BB/9), but he posted a 2.29 FIP for Memphis.

Just a few short years after his transition, Motte made his major league debut this past September. Nothing can really be inferred from an 11-inning sample, but the 26 year-old did make a good first impression as he whiffed 16 and walked three. He also showcased his explosive, bat-breaking four-seam fastball: Motte’s average heater came in at 96.6 MPH. He coupled that with an 88 MPH slider, giving batters a “harder, hardest” combo that leaves little time for reaction.

As Baseball America notes, Motte is still messing around with a few different secondary pitches in order to see what sticks: “Motte showed no effective second pitch during his big league stint. He has worked on a slider, cutter and splitter but none is reliable yet.” BA also notes that Motte’s heat is “straight as an arrow” (not surprising, as four-seamers impart the most back-spin on the baseball; the trade-off for the decreased resistance is less tailing action).

It is also worth noting that as Motte jumped levels, he became more of a flyball pitcher: according to Minor League Splits, he posted a 39.1 GB% in AA in 2007 and a 36.7 GB% in AAA this past year. That could lead to a few more souvenirs, though New Busch has done quite the number on HR production since its 2006 opening: Busch III has deflated homers by 16 percent from ’06 to ’08.

Motte is similar to Perez in a number of ways, as both are righties with excellent velocity, intermittent control and nasty-if-inconsistent sliders. It basically seems like a coin flip as to which guy ends up getting the call in the ninth inning as opposed to the eighth. Like with Perez, fantasy owners will want to watch Motte this spring to see if his blazing fastball and ability to fool hitters is enough to counteract average control and just occasionally effective off-speed stuff.