Marking the first major move of the offseason, the Atlanta Braves are all set to acquire Billy Wagner if he passes their physical examination. The deal is for a reported $7 million this year, with a $6.5 million vesting option for 2011 if he finishes 50 games in 2010.

The Braves used Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez in the closers spot last year, but after offering arbitration to both players, it seems unlikely they will return. Signing Wagner would require Atlanta to forfeit their first round pick, but they would receive two others if Soriano and Gonzalez decline arbitration and sign elsewhere.

When I wrote about Wagner in my brief Free Agent Fantasy Impact Series, I said this about his value:

“If Wagner can find himself a closer’s job for a contender next year, he will be in the top half of fantasy closers, if not the top 10. His ability to strike batters out and experience in the ninth inning should allow you to draft him with confidence, but make sure to have a backup option ready in case his elbow explodes again.

If he’s not a closer, he is still draftable in deeper and AL/NL only leagues, as he will give you good strikeouts for the amount of your allotted innings he uses.”

Wagner’s role with the Braves remains clouded. While his contract suggests he would be the full time closer, his recent injuries suggest that the Braves will acquire another late inning option. I believe the Braves enjoyed having a legitimate lefty/righty combo capable of finish games, and would like to have that ability again. Kevin Gregg is a player who comes to mind for the Braves, as his experience finishing games for the Marlins could be attractive to Atlanta. Kiko Calero and Octavio Dotel would also be options for the Braves to acquire.

If the Braves sign another closer, they will likely give both an equal opportunity to win the primary closers job. If Wagner can win it, he is a top half closer as I projected before. The ability to give him plenty of rest by pitching another closer could keep him healthy and fresh, actually helping his value by doing everything possible to ensure his health.

Wagner will always be a source of strikeouts and a low ERA, with a career 11.79 K/9 and 2.39 ERA. His 14.94 K/9 from last year is unsustainable, but dropping the number down to his career average is reasonable. The problems with control (4.60 BB/9) likely stem from his extended time off the field, causing some rust. Like I said before, if he isn’t the official closer, he will still gather some saves and help your fantasy club. If he is the full time closer, 30 saves is well within the realm of possibility.

No one will blame you for being cautious and passing on Wagner on draft day, and I may end being one of those people. For the rest of you, keep an eye on this situation, it could get interesting.

In a scenario that seemed ridiculous at the start of the year, Billy Wagner may be one of the most highly sought after relievers this offseason. Wagner missed the majority of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last August. Wagner rejoined the Mets on August 20th, and pitched two innings before being shipped off to Boston.

Even though he pitched only 15.2 innings this year, he proved to suitors that he was healthy by averaging 94mph+ on his fastball. While he only pitched on back-to-back days once, that issue should be resolved with an offseason of continued rehab and rest.

When Wagner did get the chance to pitch, he was back to his old (young?) self. A 14.94 K/9 helped contribute to a 1.72 ERA (2.33 FIP). A 4.60 BB/9 is disappointing, but with a 1.02 WHIP, it’s excusable.

If anyone owned Wagner for their fantasy playoffs, the only real value he provided was strikeouts, as he did not accumulate any saves while in Boston. However, because Wagner is a free agent, he has a chance to give owners a decent amount of saves next year, depending on which team he chooses.

He will not be back in Boston unless they trade Jonathan Papelbon and guarantee Wagner the closer’s role. So, where else could he end up? Speculation is that he would like to remain close to his home in Virginia, with the Nationals and Orioles as the two closest teams. The Orioles aren’t likely to spend a bundle of money on a closer, and the Nationals may be happy with Mike MacDougal. Plus, I would guess Wagner would like to compete for a title instead of toiling away on a sub-.500 team.

Could a return to the Phillies make sense? Brad Lidge has been shaky this year, and Philadelphia could opt to bring in an outside player to help shore up the back end of the bullpen. Because they owe Lidge $11.5MM next year, and Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero a combined $8.5MM, they aren’t likely to invest much more cash in the ‘pen. Don’t count them out, but don’t expect a huge push from them if Wagner asks for the big bucks. If he’s willing to move away from the East Coast, the Giants and Cardinals could be players, along with the Angels and Tigers.

If Wagner can find himself a closer’s job for a contender next year, he will be in the top half of fantasy closers, if not the top 10. His ability to strike batters out and experience in the ninth inning should allow you to draft him with confidence, but make sure to have a backup option ready in case his elbow explodes again.

If he’s not a closer, he is still draftable in deeper and AL/NL only leagues, as he will give you good strikeouts for the amount of your allotted innings he uses.

J.P. Howell is out for the rest of the year, Tampa Bay beat writer Marc Lancaster announced on Twitter late Friday night. The rationale he cited was that Howell has been pushed, innings-wise, the last couple of years and there’s no reason to push him now that the Rays are officially out of the hunt.

Of course, it’s probably not the 66+ innings he’s put up this year that would have anyone worried, it’s the 89+ innings he put up last year that would be troublesome for a reliever. But it would make sense to take a look at Howell’s year to reflect on the creation of a closer.

Coming into the year, he had shown that he could strike people out (9.27 K/9 in 2008) and that he sometimes had trouble corralling his stuff (4+ BB/9 career). He’s not your typical closer, as his fastball tops out at 86 MPH, and he only uses it around half the time. No, he makes his bread and butter with his curveball, which he throws the second-most in baseball among relievers (36.6%). Throwing a curveball around a third of the time is very Jeremy Affeldt-like, but hey, it’s worked for both of them.

Because of Howell’s unconventional arsenal, the Rays may have been forgiven for thinking that it would instead be fireballing Grant Balfour that would step to the fore to take the job this year. Yes, Troy Percival was the closer in name, but it didn’t seem likely that the forty-year-old would make it through the year. Despite his mid-90s gas, Balfour was already out of the question by the time Percival proved unable to contribute. After a 2008 that saw him pair huge strikeouts (12.65 K/9) with a passable walk total (3.7 BB/9), Balfour dropped off on both accounts this year (9.19 K/9 and 4.59 BB/9) and has had an ERA over five all year.

There was Howell, lying in the weeds. Though his control has been a problem all year (4.46 BB/9), as well as more recently, as David pointed out in the closer report this week, Howell’s performance was the steadiest at the time of Percival’s demise, and he was awarded the title of Closer.

It seems that opportunity and timing are the most important ingredients to creating a closer. Earlier in the season, Dan Wheeler didn’t seem like a good candidate because he was being knocked around the park a little (8.59 ERA in April), but the Rays’ steadiest reliever smoothed out the wrinkles and put in another classic season so far (though perhaps again benefiting from the luck of the bounce with his .203 BABIP over the past two years). He’s whittled his walk rate to the lowest in his career (1.47 BB/9) and is getting people out again despite the ugly FIP. Considering how steady he’s been in Tampa, you might argue that he should have been the closer all along, but with a K/9 under seven over the past two years, you can forgive management for looking for better strikeout totals from their closer.

At least now it seems that Wheeler is the nominal closer for the final two weeks. Whether he’ll ever get the title officially in his career is debatable. But put him on the right team at the right time and he could, as we’ve learned from Howell.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

The Panamanian with the deadly cutter will be 40 this November, yet it’s actually shocking any time that Rivera allows a run. He gave up two in a blown save vs. Seattle on the 18th. Those are the only tallies against Mo since August 11th. Rivera has 9.96 K/9, with 1.73 BB/9 and a 2.54 XFIP. His percentage of contact within the zone is higher than usual (89.8% in ’09, 85.9% career), but Mo remains as effective as ever.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria has worked four times since the last Closer Report, collecting three saves and striking out five in four scoreless innings. Joakim has yet to allow a run this September, while racking up an insane 19 K’s in 10.2 IP. The Mexicutioner has 12.06 K/9 in 2009, with a 31.1 O-Swing% (25% MLB avg). It’s no wonder why the 25 year-old is so difficult to touch up: he can unleash a 92 MPH heater (+0.61 runs/100), 80 MPH slider (+0.62), 70 MPH curveball (+4.95) or an 85 MPH changeup (+0.42). How many relievers have four plus pitches?

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

The major league leader in Win Probability Added (+4.79), Papelbon has punched out 11, issued two walks and surrendered 2 runs in 9.1 September innings. Boston’s 4th-round pick in the 2003 draft has been much sharper in the second half of the season, with a 5.5 K/BB ratio since the All-Star break (2.28 K/BB prior).

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan has seen extensive action as the Twins attempt to catch the Tigers in the A.L. Central standings. Joe has pitched 7 times over the past 10 days, collecting six saves. He has whiffed 8 in 6.2 frames, but has also issued 4 free passes. Nathan struck out 9.67 hitters per nine innings in 2007 and 9.84 in 2008, but his K rate has climbed back up to 11.86 this year. His contact rate (68.2%) is his lowest since 2005.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey has pitched 79.1 innings in relief this season, the most by any closer in the majors. But if the 25 year-old with the nasty fastball, cutter and curve is tired, he sure isn’t showing it. Bailey chucked four scoreless innings since our last Closer Report, with 6 K’s, zero walks and one hit. With 9.87 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9, the 6-3 righty has a 3.37 XFIP. Opposing batters have made contact with 75.6% of Bailey’s pitches within the strike zone, the lowest rate among all relievers.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Can you believe that Aardsma hasn’t walked anyone in over a month? A highly-touted prospect taken 22nd overall by the Giants in 2003, Aardsma drifted through many organizations (San Fran, both sides of Chicago, Boston) before breaking out in Seattle. Control problems plagued him throughout. Yet, the 27 year-old has now gone 11 consecutive frames without allowing a free pass. His walk rate is down to 4.32 for the season. Punching out 10.26 batters per nine innings and showing adequate control, Aardsma has a 4.16 XFIP in 2009.

In Control

J.P. Howell, Rays

Howell has collected just one save this September, with the Rays fading down the stretch. His control has been MIA, with seven walks in five IP (this after 9 BB in 12 August frames). J.P. hasn’t been easy to hit (10.67 K/9, and a 68.1% contact rate well below the 81% MLB avg). But he’s struggling to locate, with a 45.8 Zone% (49% MLB avg, 50.1% Zone% for Howell in 2008).

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

Putting the finishing touches on a fine (if injury-riddled) 2009 season, Francisco has picked up two saves in five scoreless frames since the last Closer Report (6 K, 2 BB). In 46.2 IP, Frank has a 4.0 K/BB ratio, with a 3.78 XFIP. He’s pounding the zone (55 Zone%, 49% MLB avg). But when he does bury a pitch in the dirt, hitters are chasing more often (27.1 O-Swing%, 22.8% career avg).

Matt Thornton/Octavio Dotel, White Sox (Bobby Jenks out for the season with a strained calf muscle)

A calf injury closes the book on Jenks’ 2009 season. Bobby’s ERA soared from 2.63 in 2008 to 3.71 in 2009, but it’s questionable how much he actually declined. The 28 year-old’s XFIP was 3.86 in ’08, and a slightly-lower 3.77 in 2009. Jenks’ K rate bounced back this year (5.55 K/9 in ’08, 8.27 K/9 in ’09), but a huge 17% home run/fly ball rate put a big dent in his season. He’s basically the same guy: a good late-inning arm, if not an elite one.

With Bobby out of commission, Thornton and Dotel figure to get dibs on any save ops for the Pale Hose. Per Win Probability Added, Thornton (+2.87) has Dotel (+0.74) beat by a healthy margin. Same goes for XFIP (2.92 for Matt, 4.33 for Octavio). Thornton has whiffed 10.72 hitters per nine frames this year, firing a blistering 96 MPH fastball nearly 90 percent of the time.

Jason Frasor/Scott Downs, Blue Jays

The Jays haven’t had a save converted since Sept. 12th, when Frasor took down the Tigers. Frasor (a former Detroit prospect himself) blew a save op against the Tigers on the 14th (3 runs allowed, including a homer), then took a loss against the Yankees on the 16th (2 hits and a run). He allowed another run in an appearance vs. Baltimore on the 21st, then finally tossed a clean inning yesterday against the O’s.

Downs, meanwhile, has had some trouble of his own. He blew a save op vs. the Bronx Bombers Sept. 16th, giving up 3 hits two runs and a homer. He hasn’t appeared in a game since.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Watch Your Back: Kevin Jepsen

Are the buzzards circling Fuentes? Shiny save total aside, the former Rockie hasn’t enjoyed a stellar first year with the Halos. His XFIP, 3.25 in 2008, has soared to 5.09 this year. Fuentes’ K rate (7.71 per nine) has dipped considerably, and is the worst mark of his big league career. The lefty’s fastball has still been effective (+0.66 runs/100), but he’s lost control of his mid-70’s slider (-0.82 runs/100). That has led to more contact (79.5 contact%, 73.4% career) and plenty of hitter’s counts (52.2 first-pitch strike%, 58% MLB avg).

As Eno Sarris noted, Fuentes’ hiccups could open the door for Jepsen. A 25 year-old right-hander toting upper-90’s gas (96.2 MPH), Jepsen missed many bats in the minors (8.4 K/9) while generally having no idea where the ball was going (5.4 BB/9).

Jepsen appears to have made some progress on that front. In 50.2 IP this year, the 6-3, 215 pounder has whiffed 7.46 per nine innings, with 2.84 BB/9. Using that zipping fastball (+1.56 runs/100) and a hard 90 MPH cutter (+1.61), Jepsen has generated grounders at a 57.1% clip. If Jepsen can keep the walks in check, Fuentes’ hold on the closer job could become tenuous.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Watch Out For: Chris Perez

Hardly all that the Indians had hoped for this season (0.5 WAR, or $2.1M worth of value while making $10M), Wood surrendered a run vs. the Royals on Sept. 13th then pitched a clean inning against Oakland on the 19th. Kerry’s O-Swing% fell off a cliff this year, from 31.3% in 2008 to just 19.4% in 2009. That’s one of the 10 lowest rates among all relievers. Wood’s 90 MPH cutter (+1.18 runs/100) and 79 MPH curve (+2.01) worked well, but his 96 MPH heater (-0.52) was often hit hard.

Perez has followed up a dominant stretch of pitching with some rocky outings (4 R, 2 H vs. Minnesota on the 14th and 2 R against the Tigers on the 22nd). The former Hurricane was quite sharp in July and August (4 BB in 19 IP), but he has dished out 5 walks in 8.1 September frames. If Perez can find the strike zone more consistently, he could challenge Wood for ninth-inning glory in 2010.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Rodney is having a rocky September, with 7 runs and 8 walks allowed in 9.1 IP. The 32 year-old could be headed for a big payday, if some team sees a “proven closer” who collected 34 saves in 35 attempts this season.

A more thorough examination, though, would uncover mediocre peripheral stats (7.93 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 4.31 XFIP). Other warning signs: Rodney’s rate of contact within the strike zone jumped up to 83.6% (79.5% career avg.), with his overall contact rate climbing to 76.7% (73% career avg). Rodney hasn’t posted a WAR total above 0.7 dating back to 2002; his performance has been worth an average of $2.4M per season over the past three years.

Jim Johnson, Orioles

September has not been kind to Johnson, as he has coughed up 11 hits and 9 runs in 6 innings pitched. His XFIP for the year is 4.06. The 26 year-old has posted rates of 6.62 K/9 and 2.84 BB/9, with a 52 percent groundball rate.

Looking forward to 2010, Johnson’s principal competition, assuming the O’s don’t look outside of the organization, might be righty Kam Mickolio (currently sidelined with an elbow injury). Part of the Erik Bedard trade (the gift that keeps on giving for Baltimore fans), Mickolio stands 6-foot-7, sits in the mid-90’s with his fastball and has punched out 10.6 hitters per nine innings at the AAA level. However, inconsistent control has stalled his progress.

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Big Jon is untouchable right now. The 25 year-old closer with NFL lineman size has not allowed a run to score on his watch in over a month (Aug. 19th, to be exact). Over that time frame, Broxton has laid waste to hitters with 26 K’s and three walks in 14.2 IP. Jon has 13.69 K/9 for the year, while inducing weak grounders when hitters actually do manage to make contact (55.2 GB%). Broxton’s +3.60 Win Probability Added is tops in the National League.

Heath Bell, Padres

Is Heath tiring in September? Bell has gotten his bell rung for 13 hits, 8 runs and 5 walks in 13 frames this month. There’s nothing wrong with his velocity (93.6 MPH in Sept.), but the pitch has been smacked (-0.6 runs/100, compared to +1.67 for the year). Rough finish or not, Bell has been outstanding the season. With 9.86 K/9 and 3.11 BB/9, Heath has a 3.18 Expected Fielding Independent ERA.

Huston Street, Rockies

Sidelined since September 1st with a biceps injury, Street returned to action on the 22nd against the Padres. Franklin Morales could get a couple more save ops as Huston gets back into working order, though there’s no reason to doubt that Street will have the job back before long. In 55.1 IP this season, the former A has whiffed 10.25 per nine innings while issuing just 1.79 BB/9.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman has collected four saves since the last Closer Report, K’ing four and walking none in four innings from Sept. 13th to the 23rd. Trevor hasn’t been at dominant force that his 1.84 ERA would indicate (his HR/FB rate is 3.5%) , but his XFIP is a solid 3.63. That low HR/FB rate and good fortune on balls put in play (.254 BABIP) inflate the figure somewhat, but Hoffman’s 85.5 MPH “heat” has been worth +2.81 runs per 100 pitches thrown. He continues to pull the strong with aplomb, too (+4.08 runs/100).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson continues to roll. He hasn’t coughed up a run since August 25th, a stretch of 10 innings in which the high-octane righty has punched out 12 and walked just one. Putting an exclamation point on an excellent season, Wilson has struck out the side in each of his last two appearances (Sept. 21st and 23rd vs. Arizona). In 70 frames, the former 24th-round pick has posted rates of 10.16 K/9 and 3.21 BB/9. Wilson’s fastball, straight as an arrow in 2008, has shown more tailing action this year. His run value with the pitch has climbed from +0.89 runs/100 pitches in ’08 to +1.67 this season.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod is missing plenty of bats as a forgettable 2009 season comes to a close (10 K in 6.2 IP), but he has also allowed four runs in the process. Rodriguez’s K/BB ratio (2.03) is the lowest of his career, with a 4.06 XFIP (his XFIP has increased every season since 2004). K-Rod’s 93 MPH fastball has been adequate (+0.03 runs/100 pitches) and his mid-80’s change is still sweet (+4.2 runs/100), but his 80 MPH curve has lacked bite (-0.18 runs/100, +2.56 career). Rodriguez has thrown a first-pitch strike just 50.5% of the time (58% MLB avg).

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Soriano got slammed against Philly on Sept. 19th, giving up 5 hits, 4 runs and a homer. The Mets have been more accommodating, as the pending free agent notched back-to-back saves on the 22nd and the 23rd. Soriano has a career-best 11.9 K/9, with both his 93 MPH fastball (+1.21 runs/100) and 83 MPH slider (+1.55) giving hitters fits.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde hit a bit of a rough patch since our last Closer Report, giving up 5 hits and 2 runs in 3 frames from Sept. 19th to the 23rd. In his walk year, Papa Grande has punched out 9.88 batters per nine innings, with 3.18 BB/9. Valverde has gradually increased the usage of his splitter, while tossing fewer heaters:

2006: 84.4% FB, 9.8% SF
2007: 77.8% FB, 20% SF
2008: 74.1% FB, 24.4% SF
2009: 69.4% FB, 26.5% SF

Counter intuitively, Valverde’s K rate has dipped all four years (from 12.59 per nine in ’06 to the aforementioned 9.88 this year), while his outside-swing% has jumped (22.4% in ’06 to 32.6% in ’09).

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero collected five saves in five scoreless frames from Sept. 12th to the 17th, whiffing three and walking none. The wheels came off against Florida on the 18th, however, as he coughed up four runs and four hits. Entering the 9th with a 3-0 lead, Cincy had about a 95% chance of getting the W before it all blew up like a cheap Acme bomb.

Cordero has turned in back-to-back ordinary seasons, with a 4.08 XFIP in 2008 and a 4.11 XFIP this year. His K rate (7.79 per nine) is down, the product of fewer outside swings (25.2% in ’09, 30.4% in ’08) and more contact (75.5% in ’09, 70.7% in ’08).

Carlos Marmol, Cubs

Marmol continues to make Cubs fans and fantasy owners all twitchy. The 26 year-old with the wicked slider is generating huge whiff totals in September (13 K in 9.2 IP), but those punch outs are accompanied by eye-popping walk totals (six so far this month). Marmol has issued a mind-bending 7.47 walks per nine frames in 2009. To put that into context, the closest “competition” for Carlos among relievers (minimum 50 IP) is Florida’s Renyel Pinto, at 6.79.

As one might expect, Marmol is falling behind hitters often (50.2 first-pitch strike%, 58% MLB. avg). Opponents have responded to Carlos’ oscillating from unhittable to unable to toss a strike by laying off his stuff thrown off the plate:

O-Swing%, by year:

2007: 30.1
2008: 24.2
2009: 21.1

(25% MLB avg.)

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

The 36 year-old righty enjoyed a charmed 2009 season until the calendar flipped to September. Franklin posted minuscule ERA’s for most of the year, despite just so-so peripherals (6.56 K/9, 3.2 BB/9). This month, Franklin has surrendered 12 hits, 7 runs and 7 walks in 7.1 IP. Ryan’s XFIP for the year is 4.14, over two runs higher than his ERA (1.98). Franklin is a decent middle reliever, not a shut-down late-inning option.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Watch Out For: Joel Hanrahan

Hanrahan is battling a sore elbow and ever-present control problems (20 BB in 29.1 IP with the Bucs), so Capps probably doesn’t have to worry about someone stealing his job right now. Of course, that point has been entirely moot, with the Pirates plummeting toward a possible 100-loss season (56-94 at the moment).

In limited September work, Capps has allowed 9 hits and 3 runs in 8 IP, with 5 K’s, 1 BB and 1 HR. His K’s and walks aren’t as bad as his 5.79 ERA would suggest (7.36 K/9, 2.81 BB/9), but home runs have been a serious problem (1.75 HR/9). Capps’ home run/fly ball rate (13.9%) is a little inflated, but the flyball-centric hurler has a yawn-inducing 4.52 XFIP.

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom/Leo Nunez, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

Nunez notched saves on Sept. 15th, 16th, 18th and the 22nd, but Lindstrom did collect his first since June when he subdued the Reds on the 19th. Here’s a tale of the tape between the two in 2009:

K/9: 8.03 Nunez, 7.14 Lindstrom
BB/9: 3.18 Nunez, 4.63 Lindstrom
HR/9: 1.80 Nunez, 0.96 Lindstrom
XFIP: 4.26 Nunez, 4.73 Lindstrom

Juan Gutierrez, Diamondbacks (Chad Qualls done for the season with a dislocated kneecap).

Gutierrez tallied scoreless saves vs. the Padres on Sept. 14 and the 15th. However, his last two appearances have been bumpy. He gave up two hits and a run while still getting a save against Colorado on the 18th, then surrendered 3 hits and 3 runs vs. San Francisco in a non-save situation on the 22nd.

Overall, Juan has 8.38 K/9 and 3.99 BB/9 this year. The 26 year-old former starter has an unusually deep mix of pitches for a ‘pen arm, with a mid-90’s fastball, 83 MPH slider, 80 MPH curve and a mid-80’s change. The slider (used over a quarter of the time) has been Gutierrez’s key offering, with a run value of +3.25 per 100 pitches.

Brad Lidge/Ryan Madson, Phillies

Watch Out For: Brett Myers

Want an example of why saves are a lousy barometer of relief performance? Look no further than Lidge over the past couple weeks. Brad was “successful” three out of four times by the letter of the save, despite getting slammed for 6 runs, 8 hits and 2 walks in 3.2 innings pitched. His latest blow-up occurred vs. Florida yesterday.

It’s hard to find any redeeming quality in Lidge’s season. His XFIP is 4.78, the result of a ballooning walk rate (5.53 BB/9), among other things. His feared mid-80’s slider has been ordinary (+0.07 runs/100, +2.06 career), while Lidge’s fastball has been downright toxic (-3.08 runs/100). When Lidge has actually tossed a pitch over the plate, opponents are making contact far more often (84.4 Z-Contact%, 75.1% career avg). Per Wins Above Replacement, Lights Out has seen a full 3-win swing in value (2.2 WAR in 2008, -0.8 in 2009).

With manager Charlie Manuel not having the utmost confidence in Myers’ health, Madson figures to reclaim the role if Philly finally admits that Lidge just isn’t rounding into form.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal has been mauled this September. In eight innings, Mac has issued 10 walks, while allowing 13 hits and nine runs. The 32 year-old righty hasn’t shown any semblance of control in 2009, with a Marmol-esque 6.7 BB/9. He’s not even fooling hitters like he used to, with 5.44 K/9 and a contact rate (84.2%) well above his career 78.1% average.

Bobby Jenks is out for the rest of the year and the rumors have begun to fly. See ESPN, the Examiner, RotoWorld, MLBTradeRumors, and even Bob Nightengale chime in with their belief Jenks will get traded this offseason.

Entering his second year of arbitration, his steady save totals should augment his $5.6 million salary to the point where he may not be the best use of Kenny Williams’ resources. He was, for example, only worth $1.9 million this year.

His story is also not one of consistency. Generally speaking, he was lucky last year despite poor underlying stats, and this year he’s had the reverse happen. It might just be the story of small sample sizes in the end, but can a team like the White Sox afford a closer that costs more than $7 or $8 million?

Much was made in 2008 of the precipitous decline of Jenks’ strikeout rate. Surely he must be suffering from an arm injury, we all said. No one goes from striking out almost a batter per inning to 5.55 K/9 in one year without something being wrong, right? Especially with his fastball velocity down almost two MPH off its peak. Well, not so much. He got through the year with a sub-3 ERA, perhaps thanks to his career high 57% groundball percentage, and also thanks to a little luck (.261 BABIP).

Fast-forward to this year and the secondary stats all normalized to his career rates (8.27 K/9, 2.70 BB/9), and his fastball regained a mile per hour. Unfortunately, his luck turned too. While his BABIP (.298) stayed the same, his other batted ball statistics went south. The real ‘unlucky’ part of his game concerns home runs. Despite a reasonable fly ball percentage (33.1%), he’s giving up a home run and a half this year thanks to a distorted home run per fly ball rate (17%, 9.6% career).

So now the portly (6’3″ 275 lbs) closer is on the DL with a calf strain and the team will get to audition their possible replacement in Matt Thornton. What can we expect, and does Thornton have the stuff to be the closer in 2010?

Non-traditionalists will look at his numbers and give an unqualified thumbs up to Thornton’s candidacy. 330+ innings into his career, his strikeout rate is good overall (9.37 K/9) and excellent recently (over 10 K/9 the last two years). In his last 134 innings, his walk rate has been under 2.55 BB/9, which is also excellent. He’s actually had two straight identical seasons with great underlying numbers. Sure, his groundball rate took a step back this year, and his flyball rate went in the wrong direction, but can you really argue with two straight FIPs under 3?

He has the fastball of a closer (95+ MPH), a good slider (neutral by linear weights over his career), he gets people to reach (reach% over 25% for the last four years), and they don’t make great contact even when the ball’s in the zone (79.7%). What’s not to like?

Ah, there’s the rub. Thornton has blown 10 saves against two saves in the last two years and for some the thought is that he can’t handle the pressure. Are there actually great relievers that can’t be closers? This may need a more comprehensive look, but as anecdotal evidence I submit to you Heath Bell. Bell had 12 blown saves against his first two saves despite good underlying numbers that don’t even look as nice as Thornton’s do now. Sure, Bell may be slowing down a little recently, but he sort of blew through that blown saves problem this year, wouldn’t you say?

When Brian Fuentes was signed by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim to replace their record-breaking closer of old, they brought in an unconventional (read: non-fireballing) closer. Fuentes doesn’t do it with speed on his fastball (90 MPH), but rather with a funky delivery that produces three average- to above-average pitches.

But Fuentes is certainly having issues this year. His career high 11.78 K/9 was not sustainable last year, but his current 7.82 K/9 is down almost a quarter from his career 9.99 K/9.

There are little differences here and there in his repertoire beyond the curveball (which he’s pretty much given up on – he doesn’t use it and it’s lost over five inches of movement). His slider velocity is a little down (75.7 MPH) from its regular spot (77.4 MPH), but he’s been effective at that velocity before. Perhaps his changeup gaining velocity (74 MPH, up from 72.6 MPH) could be seen as a negative, but it’s only a slight bump.

Way down in the pitch f/x data, there’s a change that may be significant, however. Fuentes has lost almost three and a half inches of vertical movement on his slider. As his second-most used pitch, that seems important. It’s probably the reason he’s lost five runs worth of effectiveness on that pitch and almost 25% of his strikeout rate.

Queue Mike Scioscia creating a controversy by talking about Kevin Jepsen and the closer role. “If there are some matches that could be advantageous [with Jepsen], we will try to take advantage of [them],” Scioscia said to MLB.com. So far Scioscia has replaced Fuentes with Jepsen four times in a save opportunity, and brought out Jepsen to start the ninth twice. Who is this newcomer? Does he have staying power? Is this a full-blown closer controversy?

Jepsen does own the blazing fastball of a traditional closer (96.4 MPH this year), and with his two primary pitches coming down the pipe over 90 MPH (he owns a 90 MPH cutter that’s been worth 2.5 runs this year) he is a decent change of pace from Fuentes.

In fact, Jepsen profiles very differently from Fuentes in other ways. Fuentes is more of a fly-baller (46.9% fly balls), while Jepsen is inducing ground balls in bunches this year (58.6% ground balls). Jepsen is doing a great job supressing line drives (13.6%), and batters are centering Fuentes better (17.5%).

So Jepsen has more velocity, strikes out as many batters, induces more ground balls and is walking three-quarters of a batter fewer than Fuentes? Sounds like he should be closing.

The note of caution with Jepsen comes from his walk rate. While it’s currently nice (2.74) it was consistently over four per nine in the minors. If the control goes again, Scioscia will be glad he kept Fuentes in the role at least nominally. He can always use Jepsen to come in and induce a ground ball if Fuentes doesn’t have it any given night.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera missed several games with a sore groin, but he returned to pick up a save vs. the fading Rays on Sept. 7th (2 K, 1 BB) and then notched a W with a scoreless inning against Tampa the next day. The ageless king of the cutter has 9.99 K/9, with 1.56 BB/9 in 57.2 innings. That biting 91 MPH offering has been worth +2.34 runs per 100 pitches thrown.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon pitched a scoreless frame in a non-save situation against the White Sox on Sept. 6th, then surrendered a run and 2 H in a 1.1 inning save vs. the O’s on the 9th. Despite suffering through some control issues earlier in the year, Papelbon leads all big league relievers with a 4.57 Win Probability Added.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Since he was shockingly beaten for four runs and two dingers against the White Sox on Sept 2nd, Nathan has rebounded to collect three saves in three spotless innings (4 K, no walks or hits). The 34 year-old righty has shown no signs of tailing off in 2009, whiffing 11.82 batters per nine frames with 2.72 BB/9. Nathan’s 33.2 O-Swing% is his best mark dating back to 2002 (25% MLB avg), and his Expected Fielding Independent ERA sits at a shiny 3.01.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Joakim was a busy man this week, collecting four saves (one apiece against LAA and CLE, and two vs. Detroit). In all, Soria struck out eight, walked one and allowed no runs in 3.2 IP. The Mexicutioner’s K rate has spiked in ’09, all the way up to 12.13 per nine innings (8.82 in 2008). Not surprisingly, Soria’s contact rate (71.5%, 80.5 MLB avg.) is a career low. His curveball (+4.79 runs/100 pitches thrown) is illegal in several states.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

As Dave Allen notes, Bailey has turned in a superb rookie campaign. The imposing right-hander has laid waste to hitters with a stifling 94 MPH fastball (+1.86 runs/100), 89 MPH cutter (+1.24) and a 78 MPH curve (+2.97). Bailey has been worth 2 Wins Above Replacement this season. Only Jonathan Broxton, Brian Wilson and Matt Thornton top that mark among relievers. The 25 year-old picked up his 23rd save of the season on Sept. 6th, striking out two against the Mariners.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Bobby worked just once since we last checked in on the A.L.’s closers, firing two scoreless innings vs. the A’s in a non-save situation on Sept. 9th. Jenks’ secondary stuff has been outstanding in 2009 (+1.91 runs/100 for the slider, +3.45 for the curve), but his fastball hasn’t been as effective. Bobby’s heater was worth +1.55 runs/100 in both 2007 and 2008, but the pitch checks in at -0.47 this year.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma has experienced plenty of control issues during the course of his big league career (5.3 BB/9), but he has not issued a free pass in his last seven frames. The electric right-hander hasn’t been a strike-throwing fiend or anything, but his 4.6 BB/9 rate is a career-best. Aardsma has been rather fortunate in the HR department (3.6 HR/FB%), but Safeco is a pretty sweet venue for a flyball reliever backed by outstanding defenders. His XFIP is 4.23.

In Control

J.P. Howell, Rays

Things have not been A-Okay for J.P. lately, as the finesse lefty who gets power results has given up four runs and four walks in 2 IP this month. Howell has actually appeared in five games in September, but one stint lasted just 0.1 IP, and his last two (the 5th and the 6th vs. Detroit) resulted in his being pulled before he recorded an out.

J.P.’s K rate has increased three years running (8.65 in ’07, 9.27 in ’08 and 10.74 in ’09), but so has his walk rate (3.71 in ’07, 3.93 in ’08, 4.24 in ’09). Despite the rough patch, Howell’s XFIP is still sturdy at 3.46.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

Frank took the mound just once this past week, as Texas throttled Cleveland by a combined score of 31-14 in a three-game sweep. Francisco worked a scoreless frame during the first game of a Sept. 8th double-header vs. the Tribe, serving up a two-run tater to Matt LaPorta.

The 30 year-old power righty has punched out 9.94 hitters per nine frames in 2009, with a career-low 2.38 BB/9. Francisco is really attacking the strike zone (55.7 Zone%, 49.3% MLB avg.), and when he does place one off the plate, batters are chasing more often (26.9 O-Swing%, 22.7% career avg).

Brian Fuentes, Angels

After walking just one hitter in August, Fuentes has issued ball four on five occasions in 4 September frames. He has allowed five hits and two runs in the process. Fuentes’ XFIP has ballooned to 4.83 in 2009, as his K rate is a career-worst 7.99 per nine innings. Nothing seems imminent here, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to keep any eye on Jason Bulger down the stretch.

The 30 year-old former 1st-round pick of the D-Backs has posted rates of 8.74 K/9 and 4.21 BB/9 this year. Control has always been a bugaboo for Bulger, however. He has issued 4.6 BB/9 during his major league tenure, with a 47.8 first-pitch strike% (58.2 MLB avg).

Jason Frasor/Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs is back, but Frasor continues to get the call in the ninth inning. Frasor racked up three saves this week, taking down the Twins twice (Sept. 8th and the 10th) and then de-clawing the Tigers yesterday. He struck out two in three scoreless innings, without allowing a hit.

The former 33rd-round draft pick who bounced from Detroit to Los Angeles (Dodgers) before getting a shot in Toronto has posted rates of 8.76 K/9 and 2.68 BB/9 in 2009. An increase in his outside swing% (up to 24.8%; his career mark is 19%) has helped, and Frasor has turned in a very fine year. But a .250 BABIP and a 5.3 HR/FB% explain the difference between his great ERA (2.15) and merely good XFIP (3.77).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Rodney is enduring an awfully rough September, having allowed five runs, four hits and five walks in 4.2 IP. The pending free agent may come with the Proven Closer (TM) tag, but his peripherals (8.37 K/9, 4.62 BB/9) remain more adequate than awesome. The 32 year-old has a 4.21 XFIP in 2009, the third straight season in which that figure has risen.

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Appearances have been few and far between for Johnson as Baltimore plays out the string. The Bronx Bombers bashed Jim for 3 hits, 5 runs and two walks without retiring a batter on Sept. 2nd, and then he picked up a save in a much more quiet cameo against Texas on the 5th. In 61.2 IP this season, Johnson has struck out 6.28 per nine innings, with 2.92 BB/9.

Watch Your Back

Kerry Wood, Indians

Watch Out For: Chris Perez

Wood took some time off to rest his ailing shoulder, but he has chucked two clean innings since returning. He notched his 18th and 19th saves of the season against Minnesota on Sept. 4th and the 6th. That’s a happy development for Wood. Because, if you listen really closely, you can hear Perez breathing down Kerry’s neck.

The former St. Louis Cardinal experienced a bump in the road vs. Texas on the 8th (Marlon Byrd took him deep), but Perez has been money for the most part. Since coming to Cleveland, he has posted a 32/8 K/BB ratio in 25.2 IP.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton began August with a rough stretch of appearances (4 runs, 3 HR in 5 IP from the 5th to the 15th), but the big righty has allowed just 1 run in 11.2 IP since. Jon’s fastball velocity for the season sits at 97.7 MPH. In each season in the big leagues Big Jon has increased the zip on his heater (he threw “only” 94.4 MPH in ’04, 95 in ’06, 95.2 in ’07 and 96.3 in ’08). As if that pitch weren’t enough to contend with (+1.14 runs/100 pitches thrown in 2009), Broxton’s high-80’s slider is even nastier (+3.78).

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath collected four saves this past week, whiffing 6, walking zero and allowing 0 runs in the process. In 56 frames this season, Bell has posted a career-best 10.13 K/9, with 2.89 BB/9. Both his 94 MPH cheese (+2.25 runs/100) and low-80’s breaking stuff (+1.24 for the slider, +0.96 for the curve; some of these pitches could be mixed but you get the point) are working exceptionally well.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street has not pitched since Sept. 1, as he is battling a bout of biceps tendinitis. The injury isn’t expected to keep the resurgent Rockie out for too long, but lefty Franklin Morales is filling the role in the meantime.

The 23 year-old Venezuelan was a highly-touted starting pitching prospect by virtue of his low-90’s heat and slow, sharp-breaking curveball. Those gifts helped Morales punch out a batter per inning in the minors. However, herky-jerky mechanics and a subsequent lack of control (5.2 BB/9 in the minors) have led some to question his ability to be efficient and face lineups multiple times.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman was awesome in August, with an 11/1 K/BB and 2 runs allowed in 11 IP. He has also started off September with a bang, striking out the side versus the Cardinals on the 3rd. Hell’s Bells hasn’t been as dominant as the 1.71 ERA would suggest (his BABIP is a little low at .269, and his HR/FB% is a microscopic 2.1%). His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, derived from a pitcher’s strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate) is more solid than spectacular at 3.63.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Saves have been few and far between for K-Rod (three in July, five in August), though he did notch one against the Cubs yesterday. Any way you want to cut it, Rodriguez is in the midst of his worst season in the majors. His K rate (9.4 per nine innings) is a career-worst, as is his 4.92 BB/9 mark. After compiling Win Probability Added totals ranging from 3.09 to 4.98 between 2004 and 2008, K-Rod has a 0.87 WPA in ’09. I have shown these figures before, but they really do illustrate the gradual downward slope in Rodriguez’s performance:

XFIP, by year:

2004: 2.63
2005: 2.97
2006: 3.22
2007: 3.53
2008: 3.71
2009: 4.21

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Soriano scuffled in early August (5 runs and 2 homers allowed in 5 IP from Aug. 1st to the 15th), but he has since allowed 2 runs in his past eight frames. However, those two runs have come in his past two appearances. Soriano allowed a runner to cross the plate vs. Florida on Aug. 31st (non-save op), then served up a tater to Dan Uggla the next night (he still got the save). Rafael will turn 30 this off-season, and he makes for a very interesting free agent case. He’s obviously electric when healthy (12.39 K/9 in 2009), but he missed practically the entire 2004, 2005 and 2008 seasons with injuries. Soriano is basically the relief equivalent of Rich Harden.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson racked up two saves in three appearances this week, striking out two and walking one. The 26 year-old has punched out a career-best 10.09 batters per nine frames, while lowering his walk rate from 4.04 per nine in 2008 to 3.55 this season. Wilson’s XFIP is a quality 3.31 in 2009. He’s more than just a hard-throwing, mo-hawked curiousity: he’s a worthy fantasy option.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde has yet to make an appearance in September. He ended August with a pair of scoreless, 2-K outings (vs. Arizona on the 30th and a save op against the Cubs on the 31st). Papa Grande has posted rates of 10.47 K/9 and 3.35 BB/9 in his walk year, while getting opposing batters to chase his pitches out of the zone 31.5 percent of the time.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Close to inking a two-year contract extension with the Red Birds, the 36 year-old Franklin did not surrender a single run in 11 IP during the month of August. Continuing the tight-rope act that has come to define his 2009 season, Franklin evaded danger. He struck out just four batters, while not displaying his typically strong control either (six walks).

Financial terms don’t seem to be available yet for Franklin’s extension, but hopefully the Cardinals aren’t paying him as though he has experienced some massive breakout in 2009. His BABIP is .230, his strand rate is near 90 percent, and his HR/FB% is just 3.5%; all of those things scream “regression to the mean.” Ryan’s ERA is 1.37, while his XFIP is nearly three runs higher at 4.28

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero’s control has been MIA, as he has issued six free passes in his past 5.2 IP. Francisco’s peripherals this season (7.67 K/9, 4.15 BB/9) don’t really jive with his 2.24 ERA (his XFIP is 4.10). Opposing batters aren’t chasing Cordero’s stuff as much (his O-Swing% has dipped from a career-best 36.4% in 2007 to a league-average 25.5% in 2009), and he’s not doing a great job in terms of getting ahead in the count (57.1 first-pitch strike%, 58.2% MLB avg).

Matt Capps, Pirates

With the Buccos adrift for a seventeenth straight season (sigh), Capps has done precious little in recent days. Pittsburgh has lost eight straight ball games, and Capps has pitched just once this week (a scoreless inning vs. Cincy on the 1st; sorry, no save). A flyball hurler (career 35.8 GB%), Capps has experienced all sorts of issues with the long ball this year (1.62 HR/9). He hasn’t been particularly unlucky in terms of the percentage of flyballs becoming round-trippers (12.7 HR/FB%). A .376 BABIP has most assuredly contributed to his six-plus ERA (6.09), but his XFIP (4.60) isn’t exactly the stuff relief aces are made of.

Watch Your Back

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

Baby steps: since his last disaster piece (3 runs, including a HR, allowed without retiring a batter vs. Pittsburgh on Aug. 25th), Lidge has collected three saves in three scoreless appearances. If you’re looking for a silver lining in a bitterly disappointing campaign, Lidge has issued just one walk in his past 6.1 frames. The overall numbers, obviously, are still poor (4.75 XFIP, with the worst WPA among relievers).

Carlos Marmol, Cubs

Watch out for: Kevin Gregg, Angel Guzman

Marmol continues to cause plenty of indigestion around Wrigleyville, oscillating between dominant and downright unable to find the strike zone. The slider-centric reliever picked up three saves this past week, striking out five and walking two in 3 scoreless innings. Marmol’s walk rate this season (8.23 BB/9) is truly astonishing. As one might expect, he’s often falling behind the hitter (50.9 first-pitch strike%). From there, it’s a matter of whether Marmol can tame his biting 83 MPH breaking ball.

Matt Lindstrom/Leo Nunez, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

Is it time to just label Nunez as Florida’s ninth-inning option? The string-bean right-hander has logged every save op for the Fish for a considerable time now. In 59.1 innings this season, Nunez has posted rates of 8.19 K/9 and 3.49 BB/9, with a 4.20 XFIP.

Lindstrom, meanwhile, seemed to enter the Twilight Zone in August. The high-octane, control-challenged reliever surrendered five runs in 11 innings, but it’s how he did it that’s bizarre. Lindstrom punched out just six hitters, while not walking a single batter (he has chucked 2.2 walk-less innings in September as well).

Juan Gutierrez, Diamondbacks (Chad Qualls done for the season with a dislocated kneecap).

Get better, Chad: Qualls’ 2009 season came to an abrupt, painful end when he dislocated his left kneecap on the last out of Arizona’s Sunday tilt with the Astros. Qualls is expected to undergo surgery, though he’s supposed to be ready for the start of the 2010 season.

With Qualls on the mend, the D-Backs will hand the ball to righty Juan Gutierrez. The 26 year-old was actually acquired in the same swap that brought Qualls to the desert (along with Chris Burke) in exchange for Jose Valverde in December of 2007. Gutierrez totes mid-90’s heat, though an 83 MPH slider has been his most effective offering (-0.32 runs/100 for the fastball, +4.34 for the slider). In 80.2 major league innings, the Venezuelan has punched out 7.92 batters per nine innings, with 3.68 BB/9.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal turned in a very nice month of August (14 IP, 10/4 K/BB, 5 H, 0 R). But before you get too excited, consider that August was also the first time that the former Royal and White Sock struck out more batters than he walked in 2009. To start September, Mac allowed a run and two walks vs. San Diego on the 2nd and then pitched a scoreless frame against the Marlins yesterday (2 K, 1 BB). Hitters facing MacDougal know that they’re going to get something hard: he’s throwing a 96 MPH fastball nearly 88 percent of the time, while mixing in the occasional mid-80’s slider.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera just keeps rolling along, with 7 saves and 1 run allowed in 8.2 August frames. Mo slammed the door on the Mariners on August 15th and the A’s on the 19th. Mo’s 3.20 Win Probability Added places second among all relievers, and he boasts a 57/8 K/BB ratio in 52 innings pitched.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Mr. Nathan was hit with a comebacker this past week, but he says that he’s just fine. He chucked three innings without surrendering a run, racking up saves on the 18th and the 19th vs. the Rangers. The 34 year-old has turned in a remarkable season, with 11.76 K/9 and 2.12 BB/9. Nathan’s 32.4 O-Swing% is well above the 25% MLB average, with his 94 MPH fastball (+2.35 runs/100 pitches thrown), 88 MPH slider (+2.71) and 82 MPH curve (+3.38) causing all sorts of issues for hitters.

Joakim Soria, Royals

With Soria’s shoulder woes apparently in the past, the Royals have taken to using their closer for six-out saves (3 of Joakim’s last 6 saves ops have been of the two-inning variety). The Rule V gem worked another six-out stint vs. Detroit in a non-save situation on the 16th, then locked down his 20th save of the season against the White Sox on the 18th. The former starter has gradually mixed in his strong secondary offerings more often: his percentage of fastballs thrown has gone from 77.2% in 2007 to 66.6% in 2009.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon is having an awfully strange season. On the one hand, he leads all relievers in Win Probability Added (+3.70), as he has often escaped jams in high-leverage situations. On the other, he’s walking nearly 4 batters per nine innings (3.98 BB/9), compared to a career rate of 2.43 walks per nine frames. Jonathan got a save against Toronto on August 18th, but not before issuing three walks and allowing 2 hits in 1.1 IP. With fewer pitches hitting the mark, opponents have cut their percentage of pitches swung at from 55.6% in 2008 to 48.6% in 2009 (45.1% MLB average).

J.P. Howell, Rays

Howell has served up three dingers this month, with 5 walks, 6 H and 4 R in 8 innings pitched. He did manage two saves this week (his 13th and 14th), and J.P.’s 69/22 K/BB for the year remains stellar. How is Howell so tough to hit? Well, he’s certainly not giving anything away with his release point. Check out his release chart from an August 16th appearance against the Blue Jays:

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks served up another jimmy jack this week, getting taken deep by Oakland’s Mark Ellis in a loss on August 16th. He did collect two saves, closing out games against the Royals on the 17th and the 19th. Bobby’s peripherals are actually much stronger this year than in 2008: his K rate has jumped from 5.55 to 8.52 per nine innings, while lowering his walk rate from 2.48 to 2.28. However, a .307 BABIP and a big ol’ 15.8 HR/FB% have made his 2009 ERA (3.74) appear far worse than 2008’s mark (2.63). Keep that in mind for next year’s draft, as Jenks hasn’t really declined and could be had at a bargain price.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey pitched three times this week, with a scoreless inning against the White Sox on August 14th and the 16th (neither was a save op, though he picked up a W on the 16th), then notching a save against the Yankees on the 18th. The 25 year-old rookie has been very sharp this month, with 5 K’s, zero walks, 0 runs and 1 hit allowed in 6 IP. Bailey is approaching the 2.0 Wins Above Replacement mark, currently sitting at 1.9 WAR.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma’s August has conjured up some memories of the explosive work that caused him to bounce from San Francisco, to both sides of Chicago, to Boston and finally to Seattle. He has coughed up 6 runs in 6.1 IP, with 5 walks and 2 HR allowed. The extreme fly ball pitcher (his 56 FB% is the 3rd-highest among relievers) was bound to surrender a few big flies eventually (his HR/FB% remains at a teensy 4.0). The former first-rounder out of Rice has surely been a nice pickup for the M’s, but his XFIP (4.42) is considerably higher than his 2.43 ERA.

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes was awfully busy this week, appearing four times. He got three saves (two vs. Baltimore, one vs. Cleveland), but he did blow a chance against the O’s as well. His 2009 strikeout rate (8.42 batters per nine innings) is well below his career mark of 10.07 K/9. The culprit would appear to be a less effective breaking ball. Fuentes’ slider was worth +2.06 runs/100 pitches in 2008, but a paltry -0.66 runs/100 in his first year with the Angels.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

On August 14th, Francisco endured the sort of apocalyptic appearance that can torch a reliever’s entire season line. Frank was fried for 7 hits, 6 runs and a homer in just 0.2 IP, jet-propelling his ERA from 2.01 to 3.66. He did settle down in subsequent outings, with two scoreless save ops (Boston on the 16th, Minnesota on the 17th). Francisco has a strong 40/8 K/BB in 34 IP.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Kerry tossed two innings this past week, whiffing four, walking two and allowing a run. Wood’s 4.13 XFIP isn’t as ugly as his 4.71 ERA, as a big uptick in his HR/FB rate has harmed the Texan (15.6% in 2009). Still, Wood’s WPA remains in negative territory (-0.34), and batters just plain aren’t chasing his stuff. The former Cub garnered outside swings 31.3% of the time in ’08, but just 19.3% in ’09.

Jason Frasor, Blue Jays (Scott Downs back on the DL with a left big toe injury)

Frasor notched a save against the Rays on August 14th, then pitched another scoreless frame vs. Boston on the 18th (he did walk 2 in the non-save op, though). The diminutive right-hander has certainly had plenty of bounces go his way this year, with a .256 BABIP and a 1.9 HR/FB%. Frasor’s 4.02 XFIP more than doubles his 1.87 ERA.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Fernando took a loss against the Royals on August 16th, then picked up a save against the Mariners on the 18th. He has induced plenty of groundballs this season (56.6 GB%, 10 percentage points above his career average), though control often remains elusive (4.25 BB/9). Somehow, opposing batters have a 9 percent line drive rate against Rodney. That’s the lowest rate among all relievers.

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Baltimore’s new stopper tossed three scoreless innings in two appearances this week, though neither was a save opportunity. There’s nothing in particular that wows you about the 26 year-old right-hander, but he has increased his Outside-Swing% from 23.3% in 2008 to 26.1% in 2009, while lowering his contact rate from 86.7% to 80.2%. He’s keeping his infielders busy (52.1 GB%), and has a 2.17 K/BB ratio. Not great, but he’ll manage to get three outs before the opposition scores 1-3 runs most of the time (as would many other relievers).

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.