I wasn’t the only one surprised to see Sergio Romo trot out of the Giants’ bullpen to start the ninth inning with a three run lead last night, some of the beat writers on Twitter were wondering what happened to closer to Brian Wilson as well. Romo recorded two quick outs before giving up a double to Melvin Mora, then was replaced by Jeremy Affeldt who got the lefty swinging Seth Smith to ground out to end the game and earn the save.

After the game we found out that Wilson is dealing with a groin strain, but like most pro athletes he doesn’t think it’s that big of a deal. His prognosis is still uncertain, but fantasy owners have to prepare for his time away. Romo and Affeldt are the obvious candidates to fill in, so let’s compare…

Romo: 1.54 ERA, 2.85 xFIP, 3.64 career xFIP, 1.70 gmLI
Affeldt: 3.00 ERA, 5.00 xFIP, 4.30 career xFIP, 1.75 gmLI

Just looking at those numbers, it’s clear Romo deserves to fill in for Wilson for however long that may be. Of course, common sense doesn’t always win out, and Affeldt has a distinct advantage in the Proven Veteran™ and bigger salary categories. Those aren’t the best things to base decisions off of, but we have to acknowledge that it happens.

Of course, Romo would have had the save last night if not for the double by Mora, but Bruce Bochy went right to Affeldt to face the lefty. Because of that, I’m tempted to say that Bochy will just roll with the matchups for now. In deeper leagues I would grab Romo because he’ll do more for your WHIP and K categories, and if it is going to be a matchup situation, the saves are going to completely unpredictable anyway.

There are definitely some National League closers on the hot-seat this week.

Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs
The Comments: When you look back to his 7.91 BB/9 rate in ’09, it’s hard to believe that Marmol is arguably the most dominating late-game reliever in the Majors right now. He has a 16.03 K9 rate and a 0.84 ERA (1.97 xFIP). He’s also allowed just six hits in 10.2 innings of work. He still has just three saves, though, and he’s had one opportunity since April 14 (which he blew). He’s allowed hits in just four games and three of his six hits came in one game (His only blown save). The saves will come.

Matt Capps | Washington Nationals
The Comments: Playing for a team that doesn’t score a lot of runs can really pay off for a closer. Capps leads the Majors with 10 saves and he currently has a 0.68 ERA. He has been a little lucky, though, with a 4.25 xFIP and his control has not been the sharpest at 4.05 BB/9. He made four appearances this past week without allowing a run and he went 3-for-3 in saves.

Francisco Rodriguez | New York Mets
The Comments: The Mets club has really turned its season around, but Rodriguez is still struggling in the overall saves department with just three. The goods is that his ERA is just 0.84 (4.02 xFIP, though) and he’s striking out a lot of batters. The saves will come and he’s had all three of his saves in the past eight days.

Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins
The Comments: Nunez’ ERA currently sits at zero and his strikeout rate is a career high 9.64 K/9. It remains to be seen if it will remain at that level over the course of the season, but his owners will take it right now, one way or the other. Nunez has allowed just one hit on the season (April 11) but he’s lacked save opportunities; he converted his only opp this past week.

Ryan Franklin | St. Louis Cardinals
The Comments: Franklin is a perfect example of the good things that can happen when you throw strikes. His strikeout rate is a baffling 2.70 K/9 but he has seven saves in as many tries. He was 2-for-2 over the past seven days. He hasn’t allowed a run since April 16.

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
The Comments: Cordero has allowed a lot of base runners – 12 hits, seven walks in 12.0 innings – but he’s’ second in the NL in saves with eight. Although he’s struggled with his control, the Reds’ closer has a solid strikeout rate at 9.49 K/9. Over the past week he’s been worked hard (surprise) and was 2-for-2 in save opportunities.

Jonathan Broxton | Los Angeles Dodgers
The Comments: Broxton is currently bringing the pain to National League hitters: He’s striking them out (13.50 K/9), he’s not issuing walks (1.13 BB/9), and he’s not allowing runs (0.00 ERA). Although he has yet to allow a runner to cross home plate, Broxton did blow a save this week and he gave up three hits in two appearances.

Matt Lindstrom | Houston Astros
The Comments: Lindstrom has been surprisingly effective so far this season. He’s a perfect 6-for-6 in save opportunities and he hasn’t allowed an earned run in his past four outings, including three during the last week. Unfortunately, his control has slipped recently and he’s walked three batters in his last two appearances, so monitor him closely for regression.

Heath Bell | San Diego Padres
The Comments: On the year, Bell has allowed 10 hits in 9.1 innings but he’s 6-for-7 in save opportunities. He’s also striking out batters at a clip of 13.00 K/9. He appeared in three games this week (April 26-28) and went 2-for-2 in saves. He allowed three hits but struck out six.

Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
The Comments: It’s been a frustrating year for Wilson owners. The closer has a 2.25 ERA, a strikeout rate of 10.13 K/9 and a ground-ball rate of 70%, but he has just four saves in five tries. The rate of save opportunities picked up this past week and he went 2-for-3. He’s given up runs in just one outing all season (April 28).

Billy Wagner | Atlanta Braves
The Comments: One save. That’s all Wagner has managed this season despite a respectable ERA at 2.57 and a strikeout rate of 16.71 K/9. Overall, the veteran has had just two save opportunities all year and his last one came on April 9. Talk about bad luck… but it might be a good time to try and grab him in a trade.

Franklin Morales | Colorado Rockies
The Comments: At first glance, the ERA is OK at 3.72 but it gets much worse if you look at the xFIP of 5.99. Morales also has a strikeout rate of just 5.59 and he’s allowed nine hits in 9.2 innings. The young right-hander appeared in two games this past week but did not have a save opportunity.

Chad Qualls | Arizona Diamondbacks
The Comments: The 9.00 ERA is not pretty but the xFIP is just 3.28 and Qualls has produced a large number of strikeouts (10.00 K/9). He gave up a run in his last outing, but he was a perfect 3-for-3 in saves this past week. Perhaps he’s turning things around?

Ryan Madson | Philadelphia Phillies
The Comments: With Brad Lidge close to activation, Madson’s save opportunities are about to diminish, although the club has said that it will ease the veteran back into the job. It’s about time to cut bait on Madson (at least move him to the bench), at least for now. It’s not a great loss, as he was just 4-for-6 in save opportunities with a 7.00 ERA (but 2.79 xFIP).

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates
The Comments: Despite a strikeout rate of 11.57 K/9 on the season, it’s been a rough month for Dotel, who has a 10.61 ERA. This past week has been particularly ugly and he allowed nine runs (seven earned) over a three game stretch between April 22 and 28. Eno recently looked at the situation with a little more depth.

Trevor Hoffman | Milwaukee Brewers
The Comments: Like Dotel, Hoffman has had a rough year, and the past week hasn’t been a picnic, either. His ERA currently sits at 13.00 and he’s allowed 15 hits in 9.0 innings or work. He got into three games in the last seven days and allowed six runs while blowing both of his save opportunities. Again, Eno looked more in-depth at the Milwaukee situation.

After a few weeks of steady movement, the closer roles in the American League are holding steady.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: Aardsma is still ‘The Man’ in terms of overall save total with eight. He blew his first save of the year this past week, but the right-hander was successful in two other attempts. All his runs allowed on the season have come in the one game against the White Sox. Everyone has an off-day now and then; Aardsma is still a top AL – and mixed league – closer option.

Kevin Gregg | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: Gregg finally allowed his first walk of the season and it came at a really bad time (it led to a Toronto loss). He was, though, a perfect 2-for-2 in save opportunities over a four-game stretch this past week. He struck out seven batters in 4.2 innings of work. The cutter continues to do wonders for him.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: No signs of cracks in the foundation just yet. Rauch has seven saves in nine appearances on the year. This past week, he made two appearances and went 1-for-2 in saves. That blown save was his first of the season and he ended up recording the win.

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: Soria appeared in three games this week but he had just one save opportunity, which he converted. In 3.2 innings, he struck out six batters. Soria is a strong closer option, but Kansas City needs to get the lead to him.

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: It was a quiet week for Rivera. He appeared in just one game and it wasn’t even a save opportunity. The Yankees club is going to keep on winning so the save opportunities will come. Rivera has already shown this season that he’s still not slowing down.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: On the flip side of Rivera we have Papelbon. The Red Sox closer was a busy man this week with four saves in as many appearances. The right-hander had a bit of a hiccup against the Orioles (3 H, 1 R), but he still got the job done. Overall, the strikeout rate remains low and the walk rate is high; the .195 BABIP-against is really helping him right now, so be wary of his recent success.

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: The save opportunity can be an elusive beast and Bailey has yet to tame it this season. Despite not allowing a run in eight appearances so far this season, the sophomore closer has just two saves in as many opportunities. He came out throwing strikes this past week; of his 25 pitches thrown, 19 were strikes (76%).

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: The second-year closer has seen a huge drop in his strikeout rate so far this season (7.88 compared to 12.13 K/9 in ’09) but he’s still a perfect 5-for-5 in saves. He was a perfect 1-for-1 this week in two appearances. With the Rays club playing well, Soriano should be provided plenty of opportunities.

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: First the good news: Valverde has seven saves and a 0.82 ERA. Now the bad news: His BABIP-allowed is .133, his FIP is 4.74, and his strikeout rate is 4.09 K/9. If you want to take a positive spin to the numbers, then you’d point out that Valverde is succeeding despite modest numbers. The pessimist will simply say that’s his been lucky and that his luck is bound to change. This past week, Valverde appeared in four games and saved two in as many attempts. Although his strikeout rate is down, the Tigers closer has had a lot of success with his splitter and his ground-ball rate is currently 73.3%, which bodes well for his success (although it doesn’t help his fantasy owners in the K-department).

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: Jenks’ strikeout rate of 14.00 K/9 is no doubt welcomed by his owners. The 6.00 BB/9 rate, though, is not so nice. Overall, Jenks has four saves on the year and has yet to blow a save. This past week, he was 1-for-1 in opportunities and appeared in three games. He was roughed up in his non-save appearances with four runs allowed in 2.0 innings.

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: Fuentes was solid this past week. He saved two games in as many tries and did not allow a run in three appearances. He even struck out four batters in three innings.

Jim Johnson | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: The 6.23 ERA jumps out at you, but his xFIP is 3.21. Johnson has also done a nice job of limiting the walks (2.08 BB/9) and the homers (none). He appeared in three games this past week and did not have a save opportunity. Johnson was also roughed up by Boston for two runs in 2.0 innings on April 25. The hard-throwing Alfredo Simon was recently recalled and recorded a save in his first game. He could cut into Johnson’s save opportunities.

Neftali Feliz | Texas Rangers
The Comments: Feliz was human this past week and his ERA jumped to 5.91, although his xFIP is much better at 3.62. The youngster was used heavily and appeared in four games despite having just two save opportunities (He went 1-for-2). During that span of games, Feliz allowed 10 hits and six runs in 4.0 innings.

Chris Perez | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: Well, the xFIP is ugly at 6.95 and the walk rate is atrocious at 8.10. His K/BB rate is 0.50. It’s kind of a miracle that Perez is 4-for-5 in save opportunities. The Indians might have to look at another option soon unless Perez can throw more strikes.

Yesterday, we took a look at the guys that might replace Trevor Hoffman if he goes down with injury. Today, it’s time to look at another old dude poorly plying his trade at the back end of a bullpen – Octavio Dotel.

Dotel was a medium-priced low-risk signing that they could move out of the closer’s role without too much backlash, but the Bucs could also gain from pumping his value up and trading him to a contender, so they may give him some leash yet. He’s still doing his high-walk, high-strikeout thing, and is obviously suffering from his .456 BABIP-induced bad luck. His xFIP of 4.49 does not induce a ton of confidence on the other hand. His walks have been trending north for a while now, and he’s giving up over two home runs per nine right now. He could lose the role.

As with yesterday, we’ll run a few stats out for each contender. It seems that gmLI is a decent proxy for “Manager’s Confidence,” as it measures the leverage index of the situation at the point of the game when the pitcher enters. A higher gmLI means that the manager is consistently putting a player into the game in tough situations. As Brian Joura pointed out in the upcoming podcast, that could just be a relic of a manager’s static bullpen roles (he always pitches a certain guy in the 7th, and there have just happened to be a ton of high-leverage situations in the 7th this year), but a check of the leaderboard shows some of the better non-closer pitchers rank highly in gmLI. Also, we used holds plus saves over holds plus saves plus blown saves because a blown hold results in a blown save and that stat seems to better represent the save % for a pitcher who has been both a closer and a setup man.

Evan Meek 0.64 ERA, 2.85 xFIP, 4.23 career xFIP, 4/6 career holds+saves / opps, 0.69 2010 gmLI
DJ Carrasco 5.00 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 4.47 career xFIP, 19/27 career holds+saves / opps, 0.87 2010 gmLI
Joel Hanrahan 9.95 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, 4.36 career xFIP, 28/37 career holds+saves / opps, 0.82 2010 gmLI
Javier Lopez 3.38 ERA, 6.52 xFIP, 4.51 career xFIP, 67/74 career holds+saves / opps, 0.95 2010 gmLI
Jack Taschner 4.91 ERA, 3.24 xFIP, 5.01 career xFIP, 33/42 career holds+saves / opps, 0.29 2010 gmLI
Brendan Donnelly 7.00 ERA, 6.19 xFIP, 4.07 career xFIP, 106/116 career holds+saves / opps, 1.37 2010 gmLI

Um, yeah, that’s a pretty terrible bullpen. And a terrible team that can barely get a high leverage situation to their relievers at all. Looks like the manager likes Donnelly’s experience, but he’s not providing results, and his career xFIP is not that much better than the obvious front-runner, Evan Meek. Lopez just has too poor a split vs righties to use as a closer (5.03 xFIP, 3.95 K/9 vs righties), and everyone else is scuffling. Taschner might be considered competition for Meek if only his gmLI was any higher. Looks like he’s got mop-up duty right now. Hanrahan is the only one that has been a closer, but he wasn’t especially good at it and almost has a double-digit ERA right now.

Meek was pretty good last year and cut his walk rate in half so far this year. He’s the best Dotel insurance and a sure-fire pickup in deeper leagues right now.

Trevor Hoffman just blew his fourth save of the season in seven chances. He has already given up six home runs this year, a number which he has only surpassed once in the last nine years. Nine years. He’s not walking anybody still, but he’s also not striking anybody out (4.5 per nine).

The pitching mix is off. It’s hard to tell if it’s just a sample size thing, but all of a sudden Hoffman is actually favoring his 85 MPH “heater” over his changeup (+43.4 runs career), and it’s not doing him any favors. Why is he throwing the changeup at a career low rate (17.8% this year, 29% career)? It could be injury, and a DL stint may be on the way.

Time for a little rampant speculation for his replacement. Here are the candidates, with some relevant statistical information.

LaTroy Hawkins, 8.62 ERA, 4.03 xFIP, 3.79 career xFIP, 225/277 career holds+saves / opps, 1.20 2010 gmLI
Carlos Villanueva, 0.00 ERA, 2.62 xFIP, 4.19 career xFIP, 44/51 career holds+saves / opps, 0.83 2010 gmLI
Todd Coffey, 3.72 ERA, 4.89 xFIP, 3.99 career xFIP, 67/79 career holds+saves / opps, 0.72 2010 gmLI

Coffey isn’t killing it right now, and he doesn’t have a great history of racking up saves when given the chance. His career xFIP is pretty good, but just judging from when his manager is choosing to use him this year, he doesn’t seem like the guy.

Villanueva, on the other hand, is killing it this year and also took up the closer mantle late last year when Hoffman went down. His career xFIP is misleading, as he’s racked up 27 starts worth of innings which most definitely had a higher xFIP than he’s put up as a reliever. Brian Joura just talked him up two days ago as a good dark horse candidate for saves. In fact, he might be my choice for closing… if I were running the Brewers.

Unfortunately, I am not. (I mean unfortunately for me, I don’t pretend to know exactly what is right for the Brewers in this situation.) Instead, it seems most likely to be LaTroy Hawkins, who incidentally also owns the highest salary of the group. Despite a poor ERA, Hawkins has been performing right around his career levels. But most importantly, his manager is running him out there in important situations. He has the highest leverage index upon entering games (gmLI), and it seems we could use that as a proxy for “Manager Confidence” in this case. Hawkins looks like the pickup if you are speculatin’.

We looked at the National League closers earlier today, so the American League contingent is now due for some love.

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: Put up your hand if you’re surprised to see Rivera under the “strong performance” column. Hmm, no one. The ageless wonder has yet to allow an earned run this season and he’s a perfect 6-for-6 in save opps. A couple things to note, though: His strikeout rate is down about 2.0 K/9, and he has a BABIP of .179. He’s been very good, but his domination of the league is not going to last forever.

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: The Royals bullpen leads the AL with five blown saves so far this season, but you cannot fault Soria. The right-hander has been successful in four of his five tries. He’s given up just three hits and one walk on the year, and has nine Ks in 6.0 innings of work. Soria was perfect in save opportunities this past week (2-for-2 against Minnesota and Toronto).

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: Free agent Valverde did not come cheap during the off-season but he’s been worth every penny so far for the Tigers. The veteran’s five-save total is tied for second in the AL and his ERA currently sits at 1.29. He’s given up four hits in 7.0 innings but has just four Ks. He was a perfect 3-for-3 in save opportunities this past week.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: Aardsma is tied for the AL lead in saves with Rivera and Jon Rauch. The Mariners closer has yet to allow a run this season and he’s given up just one hit and two walks. He also has seven Ks to his credit. Those 38 saves in ’09 appear to have been for real, and playing in Seattle has really helped his fly-ball tendencies. He was 2-for-2 in save opps this past week.

Kevin Gregg | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: Cubs fans are probably scratching their heads right about now. Gregg… a strong performer? Well, he’s wrestled the closer’s job away from Jason Frasor and is a perfect 4-for-4 in saves. Even odder, his control has been outstanding and he has yet to walk a batter in 6.1 innings. He’s allowed just four hits and has seven strikeouts.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: Although his overall numbers are pretty average, Rauch has successfully ended six wins without a blown save. His ERA sits at 1.29 and he’s given up six hits in 7.0 innings. Rauch has recorded five Ks.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: Papelbon’s teammates have been struggling but he’s done what he’s been asked to do with three saves in as many tries. He has, though, taken one loss on the season. Papelbon has also given up six walks – with just 4 Ks – in 8.1 innings, so he’s clearly not at his best right now. The main culprit appears to be a lack of command with his fastball. He was solid in his last game (against Texas on April 21) with one strikeout and five ground-ball outs in two innings.

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: The sophomore closer finally has some saves to his credit after knocking them out over the past eight days. Bailey’s strikeout rate is a little puzzling, as it’s down from 9.83 to 3.60 K/9 this season over last. He hasn’t struck out a batter since April 12, and his last one prior to that was on opening day. On the positive side, he has just one walk.

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: The juggernaut Rays club has not needed to rely too heavily on its closer so far this season. When he’s been called upon, though, Soriano has been perfect with four saves in as many chances. He also has a win to his credit. Soriano has appeared in just one game over the past week.

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: Closing for a team whose offense is last in the Majors in batting average means there probably aren’t going to be a ton of save opportunities coming your way (unless you have great starting pitching). Jenks has been perfect so far this year in terms of saves, but he’s had just three chances. His ERA sits at 1.50 and he’s struck out eight in 6.0 innings.

Chris Perez | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: After hitting some turbulence in the early going, things appear to be leveling out for Perez. In three appearances during the past seven days, the former Cardinal was 2-for-2 in save opportunities and, perhaps more importantly, he did not allow a walk in 2.2 innings. Perez had previously walked five batters in three innings of work. He’s actually only given up runs in one appearance this season (3 in 1.0 IP vs Detroit on April 11).

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: Just activated off the disabled list, Fuentes blew a save against Detroit on April 21. He gave up two runs in two-thirds of an inning on two walks, two hits and a homer. He’ll likely get a chance to redeem himself this weekend.

Neftali Feliz | Texas Rangers
The Comments: The 20 year old Feliz has stolen the closer’s gig away from Frank Francisco and the rookie is a perfect 2-for-2 in save opportunities so far. He has 10 Ks in 6.2 innings and has given up just two hits on the year (both came on Opening Day).

Jim Johnson | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: Johnson has taken over the role from the injured (and ineffective) Mike Gonzalez. Johnson has had a bit of a rough introduction to the role, as he blew his first two save opportunities of the year on April 13 and 17. He finally notched his first successful save on April 18 in Oakland. Johnson is worth a pick-up considering that Gonzalez is probably out for a while, but the new closer won’t record a ton of strikeouts or be overly dominant.

Let’s get this party started.

Jonathan Broxton | Los Angeles Dodgers
The Comments: It seems weird to see Broxton with just one save on the year, but he continues to throw well. The right-hander has yet to allow an earned run this season in 5.2 innings. He’s issued one walk and nine Ks. Now might be a good time to try and get him in a trade since his fantasy value is down through no fault of his own.

Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
The Comments: The Giants’ closer is in a similar situation to Broxton’s. Wilson has pitched very well but he has just two saves on the year. He has yet to allow a run in 5.1 innings and he’s given up just one hit with six Ks.

Francisco Rodriguez | New York Mets
The Comments: The single-season saves leader is just not getting the opportunities this season. Rodriguez has one save on the year in two opportunities. He’s still giving fantasy owners some value, though, as his ERA is solid at 1.17 and he has 11 Ks in 7.2 innings of work.

Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins
The Comments: Nunez has been one of the biggest surprises of the young season. The right-hander has yet to allow an earned run while recording three saves in four tries. He’s walked four batters in 7.1 innings, but he’s also recorded 10 Ks. This past week, Nunez recorded strikeouts on five on the six batters he retired. He’s probably not still flying under the radar in your fantasy league but, if he is (83% owned in Yahoo leagues), snatch him up.

Matt Capps | Washington Nationals
The Comments: Capps continues to be proof that spring training is meaningless. The right-hander has recovered from his brutal March to lead the NL in saves with seven (in as many tries). It really can pay off to be a closer on a bad team. Capps has saved all but one of the club’s wins so far this season. Don’t overpay for him in a trade, though. He’s still not the most dominating or proven end-game option. Capps has allowed eight hits and six walks in 8.1 innings this season.

Matt Lindstrom | Houston Astros
The Comments: Lindstrom is one of just a handful of closers in the NL that has yet to blow a save. Interestingly, he also has yet to issue a walk and his lack of control was a problem for him last season in Florida. Lindstrom’s value rose a lot this past week as he recorded four saves in as many appearances (and has saved 80% of the team’s wins). He did allow four hits, though.

Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs
The Comments: Carlos Zambrano is in the bullpen for now, but he shouldn’t be a threat to Marmol, who has been pitching well. On the year, the right-hander is showing improved control with just three walks in 7.2 innings and he’s added 14 Ks. Marmol has converted three saves on the season but he went 0-for-1 in save opportunities this past week.

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
The Comments: Cordero is currently second in the NL in saves with six. He’s blown just one save. Cordero has a slightly-elevated ERA at 3.12 and he’s given up eight hits and four walks in 8.2 innings of work on the season. This past week, he was 2-for-3 in saves and one particularly awful appearance (2 ER, 3 BB, 2 H in 0.2 IP) against Pittsburgh, which has skewed his numbers. He’s a borderline Strong Performer.

Heath Bell | San Diego Padres
The Comments: Bell is tied for fourth in the NL with four saves. He continues to be a possible mid-season trade target for playoff-bound teams in need of bullpen help. However, San Diego is currently playing well enough to be considered a possible playoff team (thanks to its position in the NL West). Bell has given up his fair share of base runners with seven hits and three walks allowed in six innings. He was 2-for-3 in save opps this past week and gave up five hits in three innings.

Billy Wagner | Atlanta Braves
The Comments: It cost the Braves organization quite a bit to obtain him in the off-season (a first round pick, and a salary dump of Rafael Soriano) but Wagner has yet to prove his worth. The veteran closer has just one save in two tries. On the plus side, though, he does have 11 Ks in 6.0 innings of work. Fantasy owners were rewarded for their faith in him, despite zero save opps, as he recorded a win this past week.

Ryan Franklin | St. Louis Cardinals
The Comments: Fantasy managers were wary of Franklin during 2010 drafts and his 4.50 ERA might suggest the caution was justified. However, the veteran pitcher has been successful in all five of his save opportunities and he currently sits third in the league in saves. In eight overall innings, he has yet to walk a batter but he’s given up eight hits and has just three Ks. In other words, he might help your save totals, but that’s about all he’s going to (positively) impact. One thing to note, though: Franklin has given up six of his eight hits and all four of his runs in two outs (April 5, 16).

Trevor Hoffman | Milwaukee Brewers
The Comments: With save opportunities few and far between recently, Hoffman appeared in just one game this past week and it was during the 20-0 laugher against Pittsburgh. If you own Hoffman, he is probably better off on your bench right now as he currently has a 10.50 ERA with nine hits allowed in 6.0 innings.

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates
The Comments: Dotel currently sports a 7.71 ERA but to be honest, you could do worse. The right-hander has one win and three saves in four opportunities. The aging reliever can still miss bats (9 Ks in 7.0 IP) and he plays for Pittsburgh, so you know there could be a lot of narrow leads to protect.

Chad Qualls | Arizona Diamondbacks
The Comments: The D-Backs’ bullpen has been just brutal this season (leading the Majors with six blown saves) and Qualls deserves a great deal of the blame. He may not be long for the closer role if this keeps up. He currently has a 10.80 ERA and has given up 13 hits in 6.2 innings. Qualls has saved just two games in four opportunities. He gave up four runs in 2.1 innings this past week, including a complete meltdown against St. Louis on April 21. Avoid.

Ryan Madson | Philadelphia Phillies
The Comments: Brad Lidge, currently on the DL, might have a job to come back to after all. Madson has struggled in his current role to some degree, although he has saved three games in four tries. The young closer has given up 10 hits and two walks in 7.0 innings this season. He allowed three runs against Atlanta during his last outing on April 20, and took the blown save.

Franklin Morales | Colorado Rockies
The Comments: Morales has not been the dominating late-game reliever that the Rockies club had been hoping for when it anointed him the closer in the wake of Huston Street’s injury. Morales has blown two saves in five tries and he’s struck out just four batters in 6.2 innings. If he continues to struggle, Manny Corpas or even Matt Daley might get a save opportunity or two.

The fantasy closer reports are moving to Fridays… As a result, it means two reports this week for both the American League and National League.

Jonathan Broxton | Los Angeles Dodgers
The Comments: Like Andrew Bailey in Oakland, Broxton has yet to receive a save opportunity this season. Even so, he’s made five appearances in total, including three this week (Please tell me why Joe Torre is running him out there in three straight days in non-save opportunities?). Broxton has allowed just one hit and one walk on the year. He has eight Ks. Torre’s going to wear him out before the club really needs him.

Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs
The Comments: He’s still not what you’d call a strike-throwing machine, but Marmol’s control has been improved this season. As such, he’s been successful in all three save opportunities this year and he’s allowed just one hit in 4.1 innings of work. Marmol also has nine strikeouts.

Francisco Rodriguez | New York Mets
The Comments: A bad start by a club can have a real adverse effect on a closer. Rodriguez is yet another relief pitcher that has yet to have a save opportunity. Even so, he’s allowed just two hits and no walks over 4.0 innings of work. Rodriguez has also struck out five batters.

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
The Comments: Ah, good ol’ Dusty Baker. Cordero has been the busiest closer so far this season with six appearances. He’s also already worked back-to-back-to-back games on two occasions this season. It’s good news for fantasy owners of Cordero, though, as he has four saves and one win. He’s also recorded seven saves and no walks in six innings.

Heath Bell | San Diego Padres
The Comments: The anti-Cordero, Bell has appeared in just two games this season (His last appearance being April 10) and appears to be the forgotten man in the ‘pen. This, ladies and gentlemen, is not the way to build trade value.

Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
The Comments: Save opportunities have been hard to come by for Wilson, who has gone 2-for-2 but his last came on April 6. He’s made just two appearances in the last seven days and his control has suffered, as he’s walked three batters in 2.2 innings. On the plus side, he also struck out four and has yet to allow a run.

Billy Wagner | Atlanta Braves
The Comments: It’s been an up-and-down season already for Wagner, who has just one save in two tries. So far this week, though, he has yet to give up a hit in two innings of work. He’s also struck out four but has two walks.

Ryan Franklin | St. Louis Cardinals
The Comments: Franklin has an interesting stats line. He is 3-for-3 in saves and has given up four hits in as many innings. However, he has yet to allow a walk or a strikeout.

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates
The Comments: Dotel was roughed up by the Giants lineup during his lone appearances this week (two runs in one inning) but he still recorded the save and is a perfect 2-for-2 on the year. Dotel has struck out three batters in 4.0 innings.

Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins
The Comments: Nunez has recovered well after blowing a save in his first appearance of 2010. The right-hander hasn’t saved a game this week, but he’s given up just one hit on the year and has five Ks in as many innings.

Matt Capps | Washington Nationals
The Comments: Capps is a perfect 4-for-4 in save opportunities this season but he was roughed up by the Phillies in his last appearance. He still secured the save, but Capps gave up three hits, including a solo homer, in 1.2 innings of work. He’s one of the few bright spots on the team.

Matt Lindstrom | Houston Astros
The Comments: When your club is 1-8 on the year, it’s hard to record saves. Lindstrom has made just three appearances on the year and he hasn’t been overly sharp with four hits allowed in three innings. He has yet to allow a walk, though.

Ryan Madson | Philadelphia Phillies
The Comments: With Brad Lidge doing well in his minor-league rehab, Madson’s days as closer could be coming to an end in the near future. He’s done well, though, with two saves and six Ks in 4.1 innings of work. Madson has been a little too hittable with six base-knocks allowed.

Franklin Morales | Colorado Rockies
The Comments: Morales is 2-for-3 in save opportunities and he has yet to allow a walk but he’s struck out just one batter in 4.0 innings of work. Generally speaking, the bullpen has been very good for the Rockies.

Chad Qualls | Arizona Diamondbacks
The Comments: Qualls has fallen on hard times. He’s blown two saves this week and has given up three runs in 2.0 innings of work. He’s allowed five hits and three walks. The club has no shortage of back-up options, including Aaron Heilman, Juan Gutierrez, and Bob Howry.

Trevor Hoffman | Milwaukee Brewers
The Comments: The 2010 season has been a struggle for the Saves King, who is just 3-for-5 in opportunities this season. He’s given up nine hits and just three Ks in five innings of work.

To give credit were credit may or may not be due, I stole this headline from the New York Daily News’ Jesse Spector. What is twitter good for if not for some good ole’ fashioned idea-stealing, even if Paul Bourdett and I have been arguing about Chad Qualls since spring training. In fact, Spector, Amanda Rykoff, Jay Jaffe and Dan Wade all created the somewhat-facetious hash tag #ChadQuallsSupportGroup after last night’s implosion by the Arizona closer.

With the “Follow Friday” portion of the article complete (way to mix formats!), it’s time to wonder out loud if last night’s work really was an implosion, if Qualls is suited for the closer role long-term, if he may be the next to lose his role, and who might take the mantle from him. In order.

First, it’s important to realize that this may be much ado about nothing. Yes, Qualls had a bad night. Here’s the play by play:

– R. Furcal walked
– R. Furcal to second on wild pitch
– M. Kemp flied out to center
– A. Ethier grounded out to second, R. Furcal to third
– M. Ramirez singled to shallow left, R. Furcal scored
– J. Loney singled to center, M. Ramirez to second
– C. Blake singled to shortstop, M. Ramirez to third, J. Loney to second, M. Ramirez scored, J. Loney to third, C. Blake to second on shortstop S. Drew’s fielding error
– R. Martin intentionally walked
– R. Johnson hit for R. Ortiz
– R. Johnson grounded out to shortstop

That Casey Blake ‘single’ was actually, by many accounts, an error by Stephen Drew. If Drew doesn’t sail the ball over first base on that play, the inning is over and Qualls has two saves in three chances and fewer backbiters. Otherwise, he was mostly just guilty of a little wildness.

The fact remains that Qualls is walking over six per nine, only striking out four per nine, and has struggled now through spring training and the opening weeks of the season. In fact, if you extend this period back to June of last year and include spring training, Qualls has had a stretch in which he’s put up a 5.00 ERA, 1.27 WHIP with 5.8 K/9 and 1.4 B/9 rates. He’s also blown six saves in 19 chances over that time. It’s not a great record in what amounts to a significant amount of time for a closer. Because his control is usually so spectacular, and has been even over this mediocre stretch, it’s tempting to say that the control will return and that the low strikeout rate is not an issue (especially considering his better 7.3 K/9 career rate). However, he also has 10 hits per nine innings over this time, so he’s been very hittable. Can you afford to have a closer that only punches out a half a guy per inning and gives up a hit per inning? Since the time period includes more than half of last year, we can’t just blame this on his offseason knee surgery either. Perhaps it has more to do with the drop in velocity and effectiveness of his slider.

In any case it’s an open question that will ultimately be decided by the Arizona management. But blowing six saves in 19 chances is not going to keep you your job very long. Fantasy owners are right to go looking for his possible replacement, Juan Gutierrez, on the waiver wires today. Since he figured things out at the beginning of July last year, the Arizona youngster has put up a 2.33 ERA, 0.99 WHIP with 6.8 K/9 and 3.49 B/9 rates. He’s got great stuff and has been proving himself, and he has been making good progress defeating his main weakness (walks). It may not be long until we see him take the mantle from Qualls. Don’t drop an established closer, but if you can make room for Gutierrez, now is the time to do so.

The fantasy closer reports are moving to Fridays… As a result, it means two reports this week for both the American League and National League.

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: Despite totaling just one inning so far this week, Rivera has saved two games against the struggling Angels. He did not allow a hit or a walk. Rivera has a total of four saves in as many tries on the young season.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: Four appearances, four saves. Seattle’s season hasn’t gone quite as planned so far, but you cannot blame Aardsma. The former college closer appears to have finally settled into the role in pro ball. He’s got five Ks and has yet to allow a hit. Aardsma has actually saved each one of Seattle’s wins on the year.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: Minnesota is tied with Toronto and Oakland for the most wins in the AL, and Rauch has saved five of those games. He’s given up his fair share of hits (five in five innings) but he has yet to walk anyone and he’s being helped by a steady defense behind him. Rauch is not flashy, but he’s getting the job done.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: Papelbon has gotten into just one game this week so far but he shut the door. He’s 3-for-3 in save opportunities this season, but also has one loss to his credit, as well.

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: Soria has appeared in one game this week and shut the door over 1.1 innings. He walked a batter but also recorded two Ks. The interesting news is that it’s been announced that the club will use Soria earlier (and longer) in games if a key lead needs protecting.

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: The A’s club is in first place in the American League East with a 7-4 record, but Bailey has yet to have a save opportunity this season. Rookie Tyson Ross is the only pitcher on the staff with a save, but that was a three-inning affair. Bailey has yet to allow a run in 3.0 innings, so he should be ready when called upon.

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: Soriano has recorded one save this week and has also struck out two batters in 2.0 innings. He gave up one run on a solo homer. Overall, he’s been a little too hittable with five base-knocks allowed in 4.0 innings.

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: The Tigers’ $14 million man has looked pretty average so far this season with two saves in three tries. He’s also whiffed just two batters. On the plus side, he’s induced 11 ground balls compared to just three fly-balls, which is a great way to keep the ball in the park.

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: The White Sox bullpen has some pretty powerful arms on display, so Jenks’ days in Chicago could be numbered. On the positive side, though, he’s throwing pretty well and has two saves in as many tries. He’s struggled a bit with his control and has four walks in as many innings, but he also has six Ks.

Chris Perez | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: It’s been a rough April so far for Perez. The young closer has five walks and four hits allowed in just three innings. He failed to record an out in his last appearance. Control has never been a strong suit of Perez but he should rebound.

Jason Frasor | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: Toronto leads the American League in both saves (six) and save opportunities (eight). Frasor has recorded three saves but he’s also responsible for both blown saves, which has caused the closer job to (at least temporarily) be awarded to Kevin Gregg. He also has three saves on the young season and has given up no walks and just one hit in 4.1 innings.

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: Fuentes had made just one appearance on the season (a save on opening day) and he was finally placed on the DL this week. Fernando Rodney has been named his replacement and he secured his first save against the Yankees this week. Kevin Jepsen is a dark-horse candidate for saves.

Jim Johnson | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: With Mike Gonzalez on the DL with shoulder problems, Johnson is the go-to guy for now. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been overly sharp this season. The club also recalled Kam Mickolio, who could also see some save opportunities.

Neftali Feliz | Texas Rangers
The Comments: Feliz is probably not available in your fantasy league, but if he is… PICK HIM UP. The 21-year-old flame thrower has taken over the role from Frank Francisco and he just might not give it back. Feliz already has two saves in as many tries. On the year, he has seven Ks in 4.2 innings of work.