Archive for Closers

NL Closer Report: May 27

Let’s have at it.

Strong Performers

Jonathan Broxton | Los Angeles Dodgers
The Comments: Broxton has been on fire recently and saved three games this past week. He recorded 11 outs and more than half (six) were via the strikeout. His early season drought is officially over.

Heath Bell | San Diego Padres
The Comments: Bell is comfortably in third place in the National League with 13 saves. The right-hander has an outstanding strikeout rate at 12.00 K/9 and he’s succeeding despite a BABIP-allowed of .402 (thanks in part due to a LOB% of 90.6%).

Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
The Comments: If you thought Bell’s K-rate was nice, Wilson is fanning batters at a rate of 14.02 K/9. On the down side, his control has been off a bit and his walk rate sits at 4.15 BB/9. Wilson got in just one game this past week but whiffed all three of the batters that he faced.

Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs
The Comments: The closer with the most Ks in the Majors just keeps on striking out batters. Marmol has a 17.49 K/9 rate and he fanned 50% of the batters he faced this past week while also converting three save opportunities. He’s on a nice role.

Matt Lindstrom | Houston Astros
The Comments: Perhaps the biggest success story of the year, as far as NL closers are concerned, Lindstrom has come back from injury issues in ’09 to show excellent control (1.86 BB/9) in 2010, which has led to a solid ERA (1.40) and a respectable number of saves (10). He appeared in just one game this past week and converted the save; unfortunately, Houston has to have a lead for Lindstrom to have value…

Steady Performers

Francisco Rodriguez | New York Mets
The Comments: Rodriguez is used to being one of the leaders in save opportunities, but he’s had just 10 this season (and converted eight). The former Angel has showed improved control this season but his strikeout rate remains lower than it was during his prime. He’s a good closer, but no longer elite.

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
The Comments: For pure saves value, Cordero is one of the top targets in the Majors, but he’s not offering a good ERA, strikeout rate or WHIP. He received just one save opportunity during the past week.

Billy Wagner | Atlanta Braves
The Comments: Wagner just can’t buy a save opportunity. The veteran closer has been solid this season but he’s had just seven chances. In 17 games, Wagner has a strikeout rate of 14.29 K/9. Perhaps you can buy low on the Braves closer? More opportunities should eventually come his way.

Ryan Franklin | St. Louis Cardinals
The Comments: Like a number of closers, Franklin has struggled to find opportunities lately. The veteran had no chances this past week but at least he whiffed a few hitters in non-save situations.

Chad Qualls | Arizona Diamondbacks
The Comments: The ERA is still high but Qualls’ season might be on the up-swing. The right-hander saved two games this past week and did not give up a run. He has a solid strikeout rate at 10.34 K/9 and has shown good control. Now he just needs to keep the ball in the yard.

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates
The Comments: Dotel has already reached double-digits in saves for just the second time since he secured 36 games in ’04. The right-hander has been pitching very well lately and has given up just one run in his last 10 appearances. He just needs to improve his control a bit…

Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins
The Comments: Florida continues to hang in tight in the National League East and Nunez’ stability has been a big help. The right-hander, though, did not have a save opportunity this past week and he’s started to get hit much harder than he was in April. Monitor him closely.

Matt Capps | Washington Nationals
The Comments: Capps continues to hold off Francisco Cordero for the MLB lead in saves but his numbers have been slipping lately. Perhaps he’s feeling pressure from the presence of Drew Storen? Capps went 1-for-2 in saves this past week and got touched up for two runs against Baltimore during his blown save on May 23.

Jose Contreras | Philadelphia Phillies
The Comments: Contreras failed to appear in a game this past week, which is a little puzzling. Lefty J.C. Romero notched a save this past week but Contreras remains the favorite for the late-game situations.

Manny Corpas | Colorado Rockies
The Comments: Corpas appeared in three games this past week and recorded two saves in as many opportunities. His strikeout rate is nothing to write home about (similar to his career rate) so keep that in mind. He does make a nice No. 2 or 3 closer in mixed leagues.

Fallen on Hard Times

Trevor Hoffman | Milwaukee Brewers
The Comments: Hoffman is taking a little time away from the closer’s role but Carlos Villanueva hasn’t taken full advantage of the opportunity. Meanwhile, rookie John Axford was given a save opportunity and he succeeded despite giving up a run in the process. Late games could continue to be nail-biters in Milwaukee for the foreseeable future.


Waiver Wire: May 25th

After a short slate of games on Monday, the news is light. We persevere to find you some waiver nuggets for your pleasure.

Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies (7% owned)
First, the flaws in the pro-Fowler case. He’s still striking out too much (25.8%), still having trouble against right-handed pitching (.537 OPS this year, .662 career), and still in a crowded outfield. The thing is, in many a deep league you still need to have a bench. And on that bench you could maybe use a bat that acts predictably in certain situations. Well, Fowler is a cheap bat that you can easily slot in against lefties. Look at his current OPS (.980), career OPS (.880) and career minor league OPS (.843) against lefties and you’ll see a pattern. Add in that he actually had a higher OPS against righties in the minor leagues (.859) and you have your ‘upside.’ In daily-lineup leagues, Fowler is a useful bench bat still, and could be more later.

Will Ohman, Baltimore Orioles (4% owned)
The merry-go-round in Baltimore went around another turn when Alfredo “Shutdown Sauce” Simon had to shutdown his sauce with a hammy injury. Incumbent closer Mike Gonzalez is at least still two weeks away from returning, and fellow Candidate Koji Uehara had to join Simon on the DL with some arm issues. No one wants to step forward and save this island. No matter, the O’s announced that saves would go to Ohman in the interim, and those desperate for saves will be forgiven for picking him up. The lefty is better suited to be a LOOGY (3.57 xFIP versus lefties, 4.87 xFIP versus righties) and his career ground ball percentage (39.9%) suggests that despite his good FIP (2.71) that home run rate (0) won’t last and it’s the xFIP (3.83) that better predicts his success. It’s okay. It’s only for a couple weeks and maybe four or five saves at best. They still count.

Reid Brignac, Tampa Bay Rays, (2% owned)
You, like me, might have some barely startable flotsam or jetsam in one of your MI spots currently. Well, consider Brignac, who looks like he might be getting the lion’s share of at-bats at second base in Tampa. The respective UZR numbers for the possibilities at the position are too small to cite, but as the chunk of his defensive experience at shortstop is a little more recent than Ben Zobrist’s, it might make sense that his infield D is a little better. Or perhaps Brignac is not comfortable in the outfield and Zobrist is a jack of all trades. In the end, though, it’s less about his competition at second base – whiff machine Sean Rodriguez (41.4% K%) most likely – and more about the fact that there are a paucity of options in right field that causes manager Joel Maddon to put Brignac in the lineup. Gabe Kapler is semi-decent against lefties, but is better served as a backup OF. Rodriguez is also playing against lefties and doing pretty well this year (.897 OPS). But against righties, it looks like Brignac is getting some playing time. Which makes him interesting, because he’s always been okay against righties – see his pop (.186 career minor league ISO) and overall numbers (career .799 OPS) against pitchers of that handedness.


NL Closer Report: May 21

Strong Performers

Jonathan Broxton | Los Angeles Dodgers
The Comments: Broxton currently features a ridiculous K/BB rate of 12.00. With just one save to his credit on the year, as of May 7, Broxton has now reeled off a string of seven straight saves, including four in the past week. Any hope of acquiring him while his value was “low” is now gone.

Heath Bell | San Diego Padres
The Comments: Despite two blown saves on the year, Bell is third in the league with 11 late-game stops and his ERA currently sits at 1.00. His 11.50 K/9 rate is also significantly above his career strikeout rate. If San Diego keeps playing well, Bell could once again save 40 games.

Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs
The Comments: Batters are soon going to be awarded “I’d didn’t K against Marmol” pins for when they manage to either walk (5.23 BB/9) or make some sort of contact against him. The Cubs closer currently has a strikeout rate of 17.42 K/9, leaving his owners giddy. Unfortunately, he only has seven saves to his credit. Interestingly, when batters do make contact against Marmol, they tend to hit him hard (31.3 LD%).

Ryan Franklin | St. Louis Cardinals
The Comments: Franklin is the antithesis of Carlos Marmol. The veteran right-hander has a number of lousy rates but he’s been successful in 10 of 11 opportunities this season. The right-hander appeared in four games this past week and was 3-for-3 in saves. It’s amazing what can happen when you can throw strikes and get a head of batters.

Matt Capps | Washington Nationals
The Comments: Despite the recent promotion of future closer Drew Storen, incumbent Capps is showing no signs of slowing down. The veteran reliever continues to lead the Majors in saves with 15 and he has yet to blow an opportunity. Three of his five earned runs allowed on the season have come in non-save opportunities.

Matt Lindstrom | Houston Astros
The Comments: With six losses in the last seven games, there wasn’t a whole lot for Lindstrom to do this past week. He appeared in just one game (a non-save opportunity) but he struck out one and did not allow a run in one inning.

Steady Performers

Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins
The Comments: Nunez gave up a run in each of his two appearances this past week but he saved both games. Despite allowing four hits this past week, he’s still give up just nine base knocks in 17.1 innings on the year.

Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
The Comments: Wilson’s ERA has been a little high this year, but he has 10 saves in 11 tries, as well as a strikeout rate of 13.22 K/9. He saved three games this past week but gave up six hits and three walks in doing so.

Francisco Rodriguez | New York Mets
The Comments: With just 12 hits allowed in 20.2 innings, Rodriguez’ WHIP has taken a bit of a hit due to his 10 walks allowed. The right-hander sports a 2.18 ERA but the 4.50 FIP suggests he’s had some luck.

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
The Comments: Cordero is second in the Majors in saves with 13, but he’s been far from dominant. The veteran closer has three blown saves, three losses, and a 3.60 ERA. He also has a 1.55 WHIP. Cordero went 2-for-3 in save opportunities this past week.

Billy Wagner | Atlanta Braves
The Comments: Wagner now has as many wins as saves (four) after picking up a shocking three wins this past week. Unfortunately, he’s still not having any save opportunities come his way and (on May 19) he blew his first opportunity since May 8.

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates
The Comments: Ever since his wife gave birth, Dotel has been a much improved player (coincidence or not). The right-hander has given up just one run in his last eight appearances and he saved three games this past week. If he keeps this up, his ERA is going to start looking a lot like his xFIP of 3.97.

Fallen on Hard Times

Chad Qualls | Arizona Diamondbacks
The Comments: There was a whole lot of shakin’ going on in the bullpen this past week for Arizona but Qualls remains as the club’s closer. He’s got an impressive 10.05 K/9 rate and his xFIP is just 3.17, but he’s been hurt by the base knock (23 in 14.1 innings). He went 1-for-2 in save opportunities this past week.

New to the Job

Jose Contreras | Philadelphia Phillies
The Comments: With both Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson on the DL, and the club unwilling to trust promising rookie Scott Mathieson with such an important role, the club is now leaning on converted starter Jose Contreras. He’s gone 2-for-2 in save opportunities this season and currently has a 12.56 K/9 rate. Contreras is a great pick up in all formats.

Manny Corpas | Colorado Rockies
The Comments: Corpas has taken over the closer’s role for now, but he’s been far from dominant this season. His strikeout rate is at 5.98 K/9 and his xFIP is 4.70. Although his fastball has been working well for him overall, his average fastball velocity is down to about 89 mph, which is more than 3 mph slower than it was in ’06.

Carlos Villanueva and Trevor Hoffman | Milwaukee Brewers
The Comments: Hey, perhaps the Brewers front office reads these reports. One week after suggesting Carlos Villanueva should be placed in the (at least temporary) closer’s role, he was given his first save opportunity of the year – and was successful. Hoffman, on the other hand, appeared in two games this past week and blew his only save opp. Monitor the situation in Milwaukee and jump on Villanueva if he’s announced as closer.


AL Closer Report: May 21

Strong Performers

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: Soria is tied for third in the league in saves and has one of the best strikeout rates amongst closers in the AL. His numbers have been skewed by his problems with the long ball. He was successful in both his save opportunities this week.

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: Soriano continues to be a strong contributor to a powerful team. The closer is a perfect 11-for-11 in saves on the year and he made four appearances this past week and was 2-for-2 in saves.

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: Valverde has actually allowed more walks (nine) than hits (seven) on the season and is 11-for-12 in saves. His low strikeout rate (6.27 K/9) diminishes his value a bit. He converted his only save opportunity this past week.

Neftali Feliz | Texas Rangers
The Comments: Manager Ron Washington is certainly not worried about wearing Feliz out. The young closer has appeared in more games and pitched more innings than any other AL closer. He appeared in three games this past week and saved two games against Los Angeles. Feliz recorded three strikeouts and did not walk or allow a hit to a batter.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: Rauch continues to chug along with 10 saves in 11 tries, as well as just two walks in 16.0 innings. He recorded just one save this past week but held his own against both the Yankees and Red Sox lineups.

Steady Performers

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: His ERA continues to be impressive at 1.15 and Bailey has yet to allow a homer, but the strikeouts and save opportunities continue to elude the sophomore closer. He blew his only save opportunity this week.

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: It’s been a rough week for Rivera. He blew a start against Minnesota and gave up four runs in 2.1 innings on the week.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: It’s been a rough week for Papelbon, too. The right-hander gave up five runs in 4.0 innings with all the damage coming against the Yankees.

Kevin Gregg | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: Gregg continues to lead the AL in saves but his command has slipped lately. He still has a good strikeout rate at 10.24 K/9 but he’s looked shaky in many of his recent appearances. He blew his last save opportunity and took the loss against Seattle by allowing three runs in the ninth inning.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: Aardsma appeared in just two games this past week and picked up the save in his only opportunity. The right-hander also recorded strikeouts on four of the six outs he recorded.

Alfredo Simon | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: Despite questionable control (6.30 BB/9), Simon has saved five games on the year. The converted starter blew his first save of the year – and took the loss – this past week against Cleveland. He also gave up his first earned runs on the year with four in one game against the Indians.

Fernando Rodney and Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: Fuentes saved two games this past week but recorded just one strikeout in three appearances. Rodney did not receive a save opportunity and he appeared in just two games for a total of two-thirds of an inning.

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: Embattled closer Jenks continues to have an impressive strikeout rate at 12.21 K/9 but his ERA sits at 5.79 and he’s given up 21 hits in 14.0 innings. He has a 2.88 xFIP. Hard-throwing Matt Thornton converted a save against Kansas City on May 15, so be wary of that.

Fallen on Hard Times

Kerry Wood | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: Wood has not looked good in his return from the DL. He has five walks and seven hits allowed in 3.1 innings. Wood has blown his only save opportunity since returning and he allowed five earned runs against KC on May 19. Trusted with a save opportunity on May 17, former fill-in closer Chris Perez blew the opportunity.


Saves Could Be In Store(n)

Everyone knew that the Nationals were going to promote a 2009 first round pick to help their big league pitching staff before long, but everyone assumed it would be Stephen Strasburg. Turns out that he got beat to the punch by Drew Storen, a reliever from Stanford taken tenth overall last year, when Washington summoned the righty in time for Monday’s game. The Nats were so excited to bring him up that they promoted him while he was in the middle of a Triple-A relief appearance.

Nats’ pitching coach Steve McCatty said the team will “ease” Storen into action, which is as cliche as it comes. Every team says that about every rookie ever. Naturally, Storen made his big league debut last night, coming into the 7th inning of a two run game with one out, a man on first and the Cardinals’ top of the order due up. Easing him right into it, I’d say. He escaped the inning by getting Felipe Lopez to fly out to foul territory and striking out Matt Holliday (with a HBP of Ryan Ludwick sandwiched in between).

Storen’s minor league track record is stellar yet limited, featuring a 64/11 K/BB ratio with close to a 40% ground ball rate in 53.2 innings. Baseball America touts him as being aggressive in the zone with a 92-94 mph fastball, a hard slider, and a hard curveball, which makes you a) wonder if the Nats at least considered making him a starter, and b) think he should be better than your store brand middle reliever.

Matt Capps has done a very nice job in the closer’s role so far (3.69 xFIP, 14 for 14 in save opps), and Tyler Clippard (4.24 xFIP) seems to have a lock on the setup job despite allowing 12 of 22 inherited runners to score and leading the league with five blown saves. So at best, Storen is third in line for save opportunities in the nation’s capitol.

Things can change, of course, and with relievers they tend to do. If the Nats are unable to stay in contention throughout the summer (two games back of Wild Card at the moment), Capps could find his way onto the trade block, and the general volatility to relievers could bump Clippard down in the pecking order. As we’ve seen with guys like Huston Street, Andrew Bailey, and Neftali Feliz, teams will not hesitate to throw a young pitcher into high leverage situations if he’s the best option.

It’s no secret that Storen is the team’s closer of the future, but the future is not here just yet. There’s still a few hurdles to clear. Very few setup men are worth a roster spot in a standard 5×5, 12-team league, and there’s no reason to assume Storen is one of those guys until he gets some more appearances under his belt. If you’re in a deep keeper league or you count holds, then by all means grab him. I expect him to take over the 7th inning/fireman role in relatively short order. Storen is available in basically every league now, but if you’re looking for saves, hold off for a while.


NL Closer Report: May 15

Strong Performers

Matt Capps | Washington Nationals
The Comments: Capps continues to lead the world in saves with 14 in as many tries and is one of the main reasons why the club remains in the playoff hunt. The right-hander has struck out 18 batters in 19.1 innings. He hasn’t walked a batter in 10 games and was 3-for-3 in saves this past week.

Jonathan Broxton | Los Angeles Dodgers
The Comments: The Bull’s save opportunities took a little while to come around with the club’s disappointing play but he remained strong and has been rewarded; Broxton saved four games this past week. On the year, he has struck out 23 batters in 13.2 innings while issuing just two free passes. His 1.32 ERA is also pretty nifty.

Heath Bell | San Diego Padres
The Comments: The Padres organization is probably quite happy with its decision to keep Bell. The closer has saved 10 games and the club is in first place in the NL West. Bell is also showing an increased strikeout rate at 11.25 K/9, as well as an improved ground-ball rate (56.4%). He went 3-for-4 in saves opportunities this week.

Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
The Comments: Wilson has blown just one save this season in eight opportunities. He has a yet to allow a homer and his ground-ball rate is strong at 64.5%. The right-hander also has a 12.83 K/9 rate. He had just one save opportunity this past week and he was successful.

Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs
The Comments: Dominance, meet Marmol. The right-hander currently has a 1.13 ERA and he’s struck out 33 batters in 16.0 innings (good for an 18.56 K/9). Unfortunately, he doesn’t always find the plate, as witnessed by his 5.63 BB/9 rate. Marmol has converted five of his six save opportunities on the year and went 1-for-1 this past week.

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
The Comments: Cordero is second in the NL with 11 saves despite one of the higher ERAs at 2.95. The veteran has battled his control with nine walks in 18.1 innings and his strikeout rate has been modest for a closer at 7.36 K/9. He converted both his save opportunities this past week.

Billy Wagner | Atlanta Braves
The Comments: Save opportunities have been few and far between for Wagner, but he’s 4-for-5 on the year and has a nice ERA at 2.08 and two wins. He’s given up just eight hits in 13.0 innings, while striking out 20 batters. Is the 0.3 WAR to this point worth the lost first round draft pick?

Matt Lindstrom | Houston Astros
The Comments: Lindstrom continues to be oddly reliable. The 30-year-old closer has shown significantly-improved control this season, which is a strong reason why he’s had more success. His walk rate of 2.08 is down from 4.56 BB/9 in ’09. His ground-ball rate is up more than 10% over his career norm.

Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins
The Comments: Along with Matt Lindstrom, Nunez is one of the more surprising success stories in ’10… to this point. The right-hander has a significantly-improved strikeout rate at 9.98 K/9 and his ERA sits at just 0.59. He’s 7-for-9 in saves and he went 3-for-3 this past week.

Steady Performers

Francisco Rodriguez | New York Mets
The Comments: Rodriguez has converted a mere five saves this year but he’s given up just 11 hits in 17.2 innings of work. The Mets closer has a solid strikeout rate at 10.19 K/9. He appeared in four games this past week and went 1-for-2 in save opps and took a loss.

Ryan Franklin | St. Louis Cardinals
The Comments: Franklin and dynamic will never be used in the same sentence but he just keeps getting the job done with eight saves in nine tries. His ERA is high (for a closer) at 2.93 and strikeout rate is just 4.70 K/9 so he’s really not offering fantasy owners anything but saves.

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates
The Comments: My buddy Brian is probably the world’s biggest (only?) Dotel supporter so I’m trying to be as nice as I can to a closer with a 6.91 ERA. The strikeout rate is solid at 12.56 K/9 and the xFIP of 4.19 suggests he’s been a tad unlucky… but the walk rate remains poor at 5.02 BB/9 and he’s just giving up too many base runners in general.

Fallen on Hard Times

Trevor Hoffman | Milwaukee Brewers
The Comments: The stat says it all: 5-for-9 in save opportunities. Hoffman has had a brutal season and his ERA currently sits at 12.00. He was 1-for-1 in save opportunities this past week but he was torched in his other appearance (three runs in 1.0 inning). The club should give Carlos Villanueva a shot.

Chad Qualls | Arizona Diamondbacks
The Comments: Things just aren’t getting any better for Qualls, who made three appearances this past week and blew his only save opportunity. On the week, he gave up six runs (just two earned) in 2.0 innings. Unfortunately, no other reliever is really stepping up their game to compensate for Qualls’ ineffectiveness.

New to the Job

Brad Lidge | Philadelphia Phillies
The Comments: Health concerns continue to dog Lidge but his job is fairly safe for now considering Ryan Madson’s health woes. Keep an eye on Scott Mathieson, though. The hard-thrower is pitching very well in triple-A.

Manny Corpas/Rafael Betancourt | Colorado Rockies
The Comments: Young closer Franklin Morales is on the DL with shoulder weakness; he joins veteran closer Huston Street on the shelf. That leaves the job to Corpas and maybe Betancourt. The closer situation in Colorado is no sure thing right now but Street has been throwing well on a rehab assignment.


AL Closer Report: May 15

Strong Performers

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: The club’s acquisition of Valverde is looking pretty smart right now, even though he didn’t come cheap. The right-hander is tied with Toronto’s Kevin Gregg (another ’09-’10 free agent) for the league lead in saves with 10. Valverde’s strikeouts are down, but he’s allowed just six hits in 15.2 innings.

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: Robot Rivera just keeps on keepin’ on. The right-hander has allowed just three hits – and no earned runs – in 11.0 innings this season. While he still the best closer in baseball, Rivera’s strikeout rate remains significantly lower than it’s been over the past three seasons.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: Like Rivera, Papelbon’s strikeout numbers are down (way down, actually, by about 4.0 K/9), but he just keeps getting the job done with nine saves in as many tries. His walk rate is also way up to 5.06 BB/9. He’s gotten the results but you should definitely be worried about his rates. It might be a good time to pawn Papelbon off on someone who’s distracted by the ERA and save total.

Kevin Gregg | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: It’s not supposed to get easier for you when you go from the National League to the American League, but don’t tell that to Gregg. He’s been lights-out in Toronto and has struck out 21 batters in 17.0 innings, with just four walks. All hail the cutter.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: Rauch has pretty much laid to rest any concerns about the Twins’ closer situation. He’s remained reliable over the past six weeks with nine saves in 10 opportunities. Rauch is not as electric as some of the other closers (9 Ks in 14 IP) but you can’t spit on the fact he’s tied with four other closers for the second most saves in the AL. His 1.93 ERA is fourth amongst closers.

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: The Royals bullpen is pretty much a mess but Soria has been a lone bright spot. The right-hander’s ERA is a little high but his xFIP (2.27) suggests it’s not all his fault. His 14.14 K/9 rate is tantalizing. He converted his only save opportunity last week.

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: Bailey is making up for lost time after not having his first save opportunity until mid-April. The right-hander, though, did blow his first save of the year on May 11 in Texas. He’s done a good job of beating the sophomore jinx to this point, but his pitches haven’t been as sharp and his strikeout rate is down significantly over ’09.

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: Soriano has been a nice addition to the Rays club that gave up very little to acquire him. The right-hander hasn’t struck out as many batters in ’10 as in the past, but he’s a perfect 9-for-9 in saves and has a solid ERA at 1.93. He went 2-for-2 in saves this past week and hasn’t given up a run in five appearances.

Neftali Feliz | Texas Rangers
The Comments: Feliz has had a couple hiccups with two blown saves on the season, but it’s been a very successful year for the 22-year-old to this point. The right-hander has shown excellent control (1.89 BB/9) but the extreme fly-ball tendency (GB rate is just 23.5%) is a little worrisome. He’s also been used very heavily by his manager, especially lately, which is never good to see with a young, talented arm like this.

Steady Performers

Alfredo Simon | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: He hasn’t always been pretty while doing it, but the 29-year-old rookie has reeled off five saves in as many tries for the O’s club, which is desperate for some stability in the ninth inning. In 8.0 innings, Simon has walked five batters with nine Ks. His ERA is at 0.00 but he’s given up three unearned runs.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: Aardsma’s early-season dominance appears to be over, although he’s still holding his own. He’s allowed runs in two of his last three appearances, and also had a blown save. He had just one save opportunity this past week and converted it.

Fallen on Hard Times

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: Fuentes went 1-for-2 in save opportunities this past week and he’s been far from a sure thing this season since coming back from injury. There have been rumblings of a possible switch to Fernando Rodney, who filled in for Fuentes when he was hurt (and is 5-for-5 in saves). Fuentes is no sure thing right now.

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: Jenks is another closer whose role is not exactly secure right now. The right-hander has a 6.23 ERA but his xFIP shows some light at the end of the tunnel (3.14). He also has a very good strikeout rate at 11.77 K/9. Jenks needs to show better command and get a little help with the balls in play (.478 BABIP-allowed).

New to the Job

Kerry Wood | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: It was a case of too little too late for Chris Perez, who slips into the set-up role now that Wood is back. Perez had actually settled into the role pretty well but Wood needs to build up his trade value. He hasn’t looked overly sharp since coming back and really isn’t any more of a sure thing than Perez was.


AL Closer Report: May 7th

    Strong Performers

Mariano Rivera |Yankees

With Mo experiencing some soreness in his left side, Joba Chamberlain got the chance to pick up a couple saves. Rivera’s injury isn’t considered serious, though, and the ageless wonder has a 9/2 K/BB and a 3.60 xFIP in nine innings pitched. Joba, meanwhile, has 9.49 K/9, 2.92 BB/9 and a 3.27 xFIP in 12.1 IP. His curve and changeup have essentially been scrapped out of the ‘pen, as Chamberlain has gone to his 93-94 MPH fastball 65 percent and his 86 MPH slider 30 percent.

Joakim Soria |Royals

Soria was smacked around for 2 HR by the Rangers yesterday, but he has still been filthy overall. In 12 IP, The Mexicutioner has 15 K/9, 2.25 BB/9 and a 1.86 xFIP. His outside swing rate (35%) is a career high, as is his 14.5 swinging strike rate. He’s pitching as well as he ever has.

Andrew Bailey |Athletics

The yet-to-be-scored-upon Bailey has a 3.64 xFIP on the year, with 5.06 K/9 and 0.84 BB/9 in 10.2 innings. The low K rate appears to be the product of Bailey placing the ball over the plate so often: his Zone% is 57.8 (48.2 big league average), and hitters have made contact with 87.7 percent of those in-zone offerings (Bailey’s Z-Contact was in the mid-seventies in 2009).

Rafael Soriano |Rays

The new Tampa closer is off to an OK start, with 8.25 K/9, 3 BB/9 and a 4.20 xFIP. Curiously, Soriano’s swinging strike rate, 12.2% for his career, is just 7.5% in 2010. His contact rate is up nearly 10 percentage points as well. It’s just 12 innings, but it’s some worth monitoring.

Jonathan Papelbon |Red Sox

After posting a career-worst 3.98 xFIP in 2009, Papelbon is off to a poor start in 2010. In 15 frames, the part-time river dancer has 6.6 K/9, 5.4 BB/9 and a 5.23 xFIP. A .204 BABIP has obscured the tepid start (his ERA is 1.80). Why the lack of K’s? Papelbon’s whiff rate on his four-seam fastball has declined from 10.4% in 2009 to 9.2% in 2010, per Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool. That ’09 mark, in turn, was a decline from his 12.2% whiff rate in 2008.

    Steady Performers

Neftali Feliz/Frank Francisco | Rangers

Feliz is still getting most save ops for Texas, though Francisco is in the mix as well. The 22-year-old Feliz has been fantastic thus far, with 11.05 K/9, 1.84 BB/9 and a 3.10 xFIP. Averaging 96-97 MPH with his heater and mixing in high-70’s curves and high-80’s changeups, Feliz has a 14.4% swinging strike rate. He’s not afraid to challenge hitters: his zone% is 57.1%, about 9 percentage points above the big league average. About the only concern here is the very low ground ball rate (24.3).

Francisco, coming off of a 2009 in which he posted a 3.53 xFIP, has dished out plenty of free passes. In 12.1 IP, he has issued 5.84 BB/9. Hitters haven’t chased his stuff out of the zone: Francisco’s outside swing rate is just 16.1 percent in 2010. With fewer K’s than usual (8.03 K/9), his xFIP is 5.24.

David Aardsma |Mariners

Despite a rise in ERA from 2.52 in 2009 to 3.38 this season, Aardsma actually has a lower xFIP in 2010 (3.62, compared to 4.12 in ’09). He had a very low 4.2 home run per fly ball rate last year, but that has risen to 15.4% so far this year. Prior to reaching the M’s, Aardsma’s control came and went. But he showed signs of improvement last year and currently has a career-best 3.38 BB/9, with a healthy 65.8 first pitch strike percentage.

Bobby Jenks |White Sox

Jenks has had a strange season, as he has posted 12.27 K/9 while getting swinging strikes a mild 8.8 percent. His control hasn’t been as sharp as usual (4.91 BB/9, 45.8 Zone%), but he has yet to serve up a homer after having poor luck on fly balls last year (17 HR/FB%). Instead, Jenks has been plagued by a .428 BABIP this year, which explains the ERA (4.09)/xFIP (2.36) split. What does that all mean? Not much, probably. He’ll likely settle in as a mid-to-high-three’s xFIP pitcher.

Jose Valverde |Tigers

Valverde has experienced a bizarre beginning in Detroit. Traditionally, Papa Grande misses lots of bats (career 10.75 K/9) and gets few grounders (38.4 GB%). With the Tigers, Valverde has 4.26 K/9 and a 71.4% rate of worm burners in 12.2 innings. His swinging strike rate, 13.1% in 2009, is 5.6% in 2010. Valverde’s outside swing rate has been cut in half (32% in ’09, 15.7% in ’10). In terms of pitch selection, the Baseball Info Solutions data says he’s going to a mid-80’s splitter far more often. Pitch F/X data, meanwhile, says he has thrown nothing but fastballs (that seems fishy). What’s going on here, Tigers fans?

Kevin Gregg |Blue Jays

The free agent signee has taken a firm grip on Toronto’s closer gig, whiffing 11.57 batters per nine frames, walking 1.29 and inducing ground balls at a 60 percent clip in 14 innings of work. Gregg’s contact rate is a career-low 71.8 percent, and his outside swing rate is a career-best 31.4. In the past, he used a low-90’s fastball 60-65% of the time. With the Jays, Gregg has gone to an 87-88 MPH cutter over a quarter of the time. The 31-year-old won’t keep up the 1.82 xFIP pace. But his strong performance, backed by a change in approach, bodes well for his future.

Jon Rauch |Twins

Though he won’t be confused with a relief ace, Rauch has done an OK job filling in for Joe Nathan with 6.75 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 and a 4.01 xFIP in 12 innings. As has usually been the case, Rauch is pounding the zone: 52.2 percent of his pitches have been over the plate, and his first pitch strike percentage is 64.6.

    Fallen on Hard Times

Brian Fuentes/Fernando Rodney |Angels

Fuentes, who served a DL stint in April with a strained back suffered while weight lifting, didn’t flex his muscles on the mound last year (4.94 xFIP). In 5.2 IP in 2010, he has a 7/3 K/BB. Speaking of overpaid relievers (cue Homer: “Mmmmm…saaaaves), Fernando Rodney has a shiny ERA (2.63) but a mediocre 4.35 xFIP, with 6.59 K/9 and 4.61 BB/9. Unless there are eight Al’s behind him when he pitches, Rodney’s not keeping the .123 BABIP.

Chris Perez |Indians

The former Cards prospect turned in a promising 2009 season (10.75 K/9 and a 3.98 xFIP), but Perez has been putrid while filling in for Kerry Wood. In 9.1 IP, he has 4.82 K/9, 5.79 BB/9 and a 5.99 xFIP. The control issues aren’t surprising, given his career 4.58 BB/9 in the majors and 6 BB/9 in the minors, but the lack of whiffs is disconcerting. Perez’s swinging strike rate, 9.4% in ’09, is just 4.4%. Wood (4.11 xFIP in 2009) didn’t lock games down last year and his rehab outings haven’t been sharp, but he’s nearing a return from a back injury.

Alfredo Simon |Orioles

With Mike Gonzalez (shoulder) on the shelf and Jim Johnson in Norfolk, the 29-year-old (tomorrow) Simon is getting the chance to close out games. A 6-4, 230 pound righty who previously passed through the Philadelphia, San Francisco and Texas organizations (mostly as a starter), Simon missed nearly all of 2009 following Tommy John surgery. Despite blistering fastball velocity and a hard splitter, Simon has never missed a ton of bats (6.9 K/9 in the minors). He did, however, begin the 2010 season with a 14/5 K/BB in 17 IP at Triple-A.


NL Closer Report: May 7th

    Strong Performers

Heath Bell |Padres

Bell boasts a 2.10 xFIP on the season, with 13.5 K/9 and 3 BB/9. Of course, just about every San Diego reliever is thrashing opposing batters: the Padres have a league-best 3.30 ‘pen xFIP.

Jonathan Broxton |Dodgers

Big Jon has a career-best 15.3 swinging strike rate this year, quite the accomplishment considering he posted 14.5% marks in 2008 and 2009. Batters are flailing at his stuff to the tune of a 40.7 outside swing percentage (27% MLB average). The result? a 1.21 xFIP, with 14.9 K/9 and 0.93 BB/9 in 9.2 IP.

Billy Wagner |Braves

Wagner continues pumping mid-90’s gas, getting swinging strikes 12.2 percent and inducing weak contact: his infield/fly percentage is 18.2 percent (the MLB average is around 11%). He hasn’t gotten many save ops, but he has a 3.08 xFIP, 13.5 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 10 innings of work.

Carlos Marmol |Cubs

In 13.2 innings, the Cubs’ stopper has punched out 27 hitters.. That’s 17.78 K/9 (eat your heart out, Broxton). Marmol’s swinging strike rate is 17.1 percent, and he’s actually getting ahead of hitters for a change (66.7 first pitch strike%, compared to a career 52.6% average). That has resulted in 4.61 BB/9, downright surgical control for a guy who issued nearly eight free passes per nine frames last year. His xFIP sits at two.

Brian Wilson |Giants

Wilson’s whiffing a career-high 10.97 per nine innings, with 4.22 BB/9 and a 3.10 xFIP in 10.2 innings. He’s getting plenty of grounders, with a 69.2 GB%, and he’s getting ahead in the count (73.3 first pitch strike percentage). While Wilson has typically used his mid-90’s fastball about 70 percent of the time, he’s going to his high-80’s cutter more than ever this season.

    Steady Performers

Chad Qualls |Diamondbacks

Huh? What’s Qualls doing here?

Arizona’s relief corps has a ghastly 5.12 xFIP for the season (only the Indians have a worse mark), but Qualls shouldn’t be discarded based on his 7.36 ERA. He sports a 3.16 xFIP in 11 IP, with 9 K/9, 3.27 BB/9 and typical ground ball tendencies (54.3 GB%). Needless to say, hits won’t continue to fall in against him 39.4 percent of the time, his 61.7% strand rate will rise, and he won’t give up home runs like he’s throwing underhanded on a little league field (25 HR/FB%). Available in nearly a quarter of Yahoo leagues, Qualls is a good buy-low candidate.

Francisco Rodriguez |Mets

K-Rod has a microscopic ERA (0.71 in 12.2 IP), but that has much to do with a .233 BABIP, a 92.9% strand rate and nary a home run surrendered. His xFIP is 4.07, so he’s not suddenly dealing like he did during his halcyon Angels days in the early-and-mid-aughts.

Matt Capps |Nationals

Capps is racking up saves and has a 1.10 ERA. To the former Pirate’s credit, he is pitching decently: 8.82 K/9, 3.31 BB/9 and a 3.90 xFIP. Capps’ outside swing rate (39.5%) and swinging strike rate (11.3%) are career bests. But he’s not going to continue to strand 91.4% of base runners, and his HR/FB% of five will likely rise.

Leo Nunez |Marlins

Like the two guys ahead of him, Nunez has a fantastic ERA (0.79) and merely good component stats (8.74 K/9, 3.97 BB/9, 3.79 xFIP). His strand rate sits at a perfect 100 percent, and his BABIP is .087. There’s a better chance of the Fish selling out all their remaining home games than Nunez keeping those numbers up.

Francisco Cordero |Reds

Cordero’s xFIPs over the 2007-2010 seasons? 2.82, 3.98, 4.06 and 4.37. He’s not a bad option, but the 35-year-old (this week) shouldn’t be confused with an elite-level reliever. In 16.1 IP, Cordero has 8.27 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9.

Matt Lindstrom |Astros

After posting mediocre peripherals with the Marlins in 2008 (4.24 xFIP) and 2009 (4.65), Lindstrom has started his Astros career with a 3.02 xFIP in 12 IP. He has posted rates of 8.25 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9, with a 58.3 GB% that’s well above his 47.2% career average. According to his Pitch F/X page, Lindstrom is going to a two-seamer, with more horizontal and less vertical break, this season. His first pitch strike percentage was just 54.2 last year, but it’s up to 66% in 2010.

Ryan Franklin |Cardinals

Whatever Faustian bargain Franklin made last year to avoid homers (3.2 HR/FB% in 2009), it has carried over to 2010: he has yet to give up a round-tripper in 12 innings. His control has been fantastic (no walks, 73.9 first pitch strike%), and his xFIP is 3.76.

Franklin Morales |Rockies

The southpaw with the herky-jerky delivery is missing the zone often (6.55 BB/9, 50.9 first pitch strike%), but he hasn’t compensated by missing bats (6.55 K/9, 5.4 swinging strike rate). It’s just 11 innings, but Morales’ 6.46 xFIP suggests that he still has a ways to go. Huston Street, meanwhile, is nearing a return from a shoulder injury.

    Fallen on Hard Times

Octavio Dotel |Pirates

Dotel hasn’t been as bad as his 8.74 ERA suggests: quirky BABIP (.411), left on base (50.6%) and HR/FB (16.7%) can happen in a small sample size of 11.1 innings. His xFIP is 4.45, as Dotel is missing plenty of lumber like usual (11.91 K/9) and walking plenty as well (4.76 BB/9).

Keep a close eye on Evan Meek, the 26-year-old former Rule V pick from the Rays. Equipped with low-to-mid-90’s heat, a low-90’s cutter, and low-80’s breaking stuff, Meek has long missed bats and racked up ground balls. His control, however, held him back. Not in 2010. In 17 IP, Meek has a K per inning and 2.65 BB/9, retaining a strong 53.5 GB% and posting a 2.94 xFIP.

Trevor Hoffman |Brewers

With a 6.60 xFIP in 10 innings, the 43-year-old changeup artist is scuffling. Tossing his fastball more and his signature off-speed pitch less, Hoffman’s swinging strike rate has dipped from 10.6% in 2009 to 5.4% this year. Always an extreme fly ball pitcher, Hoffman’s ground ball rate in 2010 is 12.8%. Carlos Villanueva and LaTroy Hawkins are possibilities if Trevor Time continues to be a nightmare for the Brew Crew.

Brad Lidge/Jose Contreras |Phillies

Folding chair 1, Ryan Madson 0. Following surgery to repair his broken right toe (no word on his bruised ego), Madson will be out a minimum of two months.

Speaking of wounded egos, Lidge returned to action on April 30th after spending the first month of the season rehabbing from offseason elbow and knee injuries. So far, he’s sitting 92.5 MPH with his fastball, continuing a decline that has seen his heater dip from an average of 96 MPH in 2005. Lidge wasn’t 7.21 ERA bad in ’09, but he’s got a lot to prove considering the 4.76 xFIP that he posted.

Contreras, meanwhile, is dealing out of the ‘pen. The 38 year-old has 14 K’s and no walks in 8.2 IP so far, with an average fastball velocity of 94.8 MPH and a slider at 88-89 MPH (he was 90-92 MPH with the fastball as a starter, and 85-85 with the slider).


Joba in line for some save opportunities

Even though the Yankees had a three run lead in the 9th inning on Monday night, the familiar chords of Enter Sandman did not blare from the loud speakers in the Bronx. Much to everyone’s surprise, Mariano Rivera was unavailable because of what’s being described as a “twinge in his flank,” which in english means tightness in his side. He actually wasn’t available over the weekend either, but an opportunity for his services never arose.

It’s not considered a serious injury, and the team has indicated that they expect him to need just another day or two of rest. Just like tonight, Rivera’s shoes will be filled by starter turned reliever turned starter turned reliever turned starter again and then finally a reliever (we think) Joba Chamberlain. He’s not the same guy that burst onto the scene in 2007 anymore, but he still offers strikeouts (8.71 K/9) and decent ERA (3.18) and WHIP (1.24) totals. The Yankees have two more games left with Orioles on Tuesday and Wednesday, so there’s a pretty good chance a save opportunity will comes his way in the next two days.

It’s not a long-term pick up, but Joba will give you a chance to vulture a save or two this week, which is always appreciated. He’s owned in just 28% of Yahoo! leagues, so if you run out and grab him now you might be able to have him available for tomorrow night.