The closer battle in Florida might seem like just another notch in the ‘relievers are just failed starters’ way of thinking. Both the incumbent, Leo Nunez, and the challenger, Clay Hensley, have started games at different points in their careers. Given the fact that manager Edwin Rodriguez has already said that Nunez will probably get his job back, it’s not a great idea to drop Nunez wholesale. How much of a threat does Hensley actually represent, though?

His present rates look nice – he has a 9.47 K/9 and 3.25 BB/9 that are both above-average even for relievers – and his luck stats don’t seem to suggest a major regression coming (.286 BABIP, 77.7% LOB, 2.88 FIP). Counting on them to continue in the face of his career rates (6.34 K/9, 4.02 BB/9), however, seems dicey at best. The nice groundball rate (51.9% this year, 52.7% career) looks steady and repeatable, and should always give him a stable level of effectiveness to fall back on.

But it’s the major jump in strikeout rate that has made him a closer option. This is the first year he’s spent the entire year in the bullpen, so a jump could be expected. Jeremy Greenhouse found that moving to the bullpen can give you about 0.7 MPH of fastball velocity, and cited research from Tom Tango that you’d expect a reliever to gain about 17% K/PA in the switch. We haven’t seen the velocity jump for Hensley – he has been showing an 88.7 MPH fastball this year, 88.7 MPH career. Hensley has also seen his strikeout rate jump almost 50% over his career rate, so he’s obviously changed something other than his throwing schedule.

Looking at his pitching mix, one thing jumps out immediately. Hensley has gone from featuring his slider as his best second pitch (8.8% this year, 19.8% career) to focusing more on his curveball (22.4% this year, 9.9% career). In general, he’s throwing his secondary pitches more often, as he’s also upped his changeup usage (21.2% this year, 12.5% career). While the changeup and slider are close enough in velocity that the two pitch f/x systems on our site see them differently, the reduced use of the fastball looks legitimate. Given the linear weights on his slider (+16.7 runs career) and curveball (+10.1 runs career) compared to his fastball (+5.3 runs career, -10.7 runs 2008-2009), this seems like a legitimate change in pitching approach – to his benefit.

Still, as strong as his work has been this year, Hensley has only put together 63 innings at this level of play. It’s the first time since his rookie year in 2005 – another year in which he primarily relieved at the major league level – that he’s put up an FIP under four. To compare, Nunez has put up sub-four FIPs in two of the last three years, and he’s had almost a strikeout per inning over his last 120 innings. Still, given the fact that Nunez has a career strikeout rate (7.04 K/9) that is comparable to Hensley’s (especially once you take out this year’s 9.64 K/9, a career high for Nunez), and owns a similar history of moving from the rotation to the pen, it’s possible that Hensley is next year’s Leo Nunez.

This year, though, you have to give some credence to what the manager says. It also makes sense to take the reliever with the larger sample size of success if you are looking for saves in Florida.

Some thoughts on a couple of Dodgers to help wrap up the day. Please note that I will not actually be working blue during this article, because I like this gig and would prefer not to lose it.

Dodgers Closers

It’s been a wild ride, but it appears that Jonathan Broxton is back in the closers role. Joe Torre removed Broxton from the ninth inning almost two weeks ago, and after three dominant innings, Torre’s confidence in him was restored. He gave up two runs on Sunday, but he’s still a dominant pitcher on a .500 team, so don’t worry about him.

In his stay, Hong-Chih Kuo picked up a save on August 14th. Two days later, he gave up three runs and was charged with the loss, leading Torre away from the flame throwing lefty. Torre may have considered turning to Octavio Dotel, but he blew the game in the tenth inning a couple of days later.

The boys in blue have three hard throwing relievers who know how to strike batters out, and Torre isn’t afraid to turn to turn to any of them in high leverage situations. Broxton is the closer for now, but Dotel (36% owned) and Kuo (32% owned) aren’t bad guys to have on your roster.

Jay Gibbons | 0% Owned

A former two-and-a-half win player, Gibbons has been given a chance by the Dodgers. He destroyed Triple-A pitching this year, hitting 19 homers in under 400 plate appearances. While he hasn’t gotten too many chances in the bigs, he’s hit two homers in 22 trips to the dish. He had a great line-drive rate in the minors, and while it doesn’t feel like it, he’s only 33 years old. He could still be a major league contributor at the dish, and the Dodgers did well to give him a shot. While he won’t play everyday, keep an eye on Gibbons and add him if something goes down in the Dodgers outfield.

This waiver wire is New York Mets-themed because Mets fans need some solace in what is increasingly looking like another lost season. A 0.5% chance at the playoffs remain for the Mets, but these two players with lower ownership rates can help you better your own chance to get to your fantasy playoffs at least.

Hisanori Takahashi (14% owned)
Of course, Bull Durham taught all of us not to punch with your pitching hand, but perhaps Francisco Rodriguez has not seen the movie. His rage lead to an opening at the Mets’ closer position, and since Jerry Manuel is a creature of habit, it looks like Tak-san is already the winner. Of course, an argument could be made that the team needs to look to the future, and Bobby Parnell or even Chad Cordero offer more hope for cheap, controllable seasons in the future than does the 35-year-old, one-year contract Takahashi. But New York is the type of market that fosters an ever-present win-now mentality. Call it media pressure, or the new-stadium-driven need to get fans in the seats, but this is not a team that looks like it will be rebuilding any time soon. Most of this team is under contract for 2011, so the guess here is that, after some bluster and blarney, Rodriguez is back in the closer’s role next year. That means that Takahashi is left as the best stop-gap option, and will be garnering saves for the Mets for the next six weeks. You can mention Pedro Feliciano, but his 4.94 FIP against righties (822 batters faced) is an effective argument against. Here are some more words on the subject from a team future standpoint, but from a fantasy standpoint, Tak-san looks to be the winner here. Those doubting his ability to closer should take a look at this pitch f/x piece here (with the caveat that our Patrick Newman thinks the slider looked more pedestrian in Japan), and also note that this rates have been better as a reliever (10.22 K/9 and 4.14 B/9).

Fernando Martinez (0% owned)
It’s hard to call this a recommendation for a pickup at this point, but the nice news is that he’s only 117 plate appearances into his career, so his .087 ISO is still 400+ plate appearances away from meaning anything. He’s still just months past being named the number one Mets prospect by Maven Marc Hulet, too. But Dave Cameron warned us that a couple months can mean a lot when it comes to prospects, so what have we learned this year? Well, we learned that Martinez got injured yet again, and that these injuries are concerning. We also learned that a .209 ISO in Triple-A at 22 is part of his package, which is good news. It would be nice to see a year out of him where we didn’t mention his age, but that’s for the future. The bad news is that his platoon splits continued to be poor. This year at Triple-A he had a .832 OPS against righties, .691 against lefties, and the larger sample size, his entire minor league career, features a .819 OPS against righties / .689 against lefties. Even if that larger sample is only about 380 plate appearances against lefties and splits don’t become reliable until somewhere around 1000 plate appearances for left-handed batters, it seems the Mets will platoon him with Jeff Francouer and limit his development going forward – because that is how they roll. There’s still a chance here for some decent power from this outfielder. Judging from the ownership numbers, deep keeper leagues may find him on the wire, and a rebuilding team may want to take a shot on F-Mart.

We’ve already gone over the trade of Matt Capps from a real-life angle, but most fantasy managers really only want to know one thing: who’s closing in Minnesota now? Incumbent interim closer Jon Rauch has not been great, but he hasn’t been terrible either.

The kicker about this one is how similar these guys are. Just look at their FIPs right now – Capps has a 3.46 FIP, Rauch a 3.42 – and you realize that maybe the Twins didn’t need a second dude just like the first in their bullpen. The comparison runs even deeper than that, as Capps (7.43 K/9) and Rauch (6.34 K/9) are not the traditional closers, but instead are two relievers that rely on control (Capps has a 1.76 BB/9, Rauch a 2.11 BB/9). But already we have a clue here that Capps is teensy bit better, because he is slightly better in both categories.

The nail in the sabremetric coffin, for Rauch, is groundball percentage. He’s a flyball guy, with 33.4% career flyballs and 37.3% this year. Capps, at least this year, is a comparative grass-guzzler, with a 48.3% groundball rate this year. On the other hand, we should be careful not to put too much stock into this number – his career number is much more modest (37.8%), and Capps is now (199 BF) not far past the total batters faced benchmark (150) for groundballs.

Ah, but Capps has 26 saves! Whoo!

The fact that the team traded for him, and his numbers are just slightly better across the board, probably means that Rauch is out of a job. But since the two are so close, Rauch owners should probably hold on to their now-devalued asset for just a little bit to see how things shake out. (That is, unless they can pick up Drew Storen in Washington, who is the favorite there if just because of his recent draft status and age, but that’s enough for another post.)

I’ll leave you with some Twins-centric anger from Aaron Gleeman, who excoriated the trade today on his website, because hey, who better to rant about a move than a die-hard fan of the main team involved:

In reality they traded Ramos for a setup-caliber reliever who accumulated saves on bad teams and is thus overrated and soon overpaid. Among the 93 pitchers who’ve logged 150-plus relief innings in the past three calendar years, Capps ranks 38th in xFIP, 49th in FIP, 50th in ERA, 61st in strikeout rate, and 85th in opponents’ average.

You’d think the Twins would have learned something about the created-not-born nature of the closer role and often spurious value of saves from Rauch’s relatively successful stint filling in for Nathan, but instead they just paid a premium for a guy whose perceived value and ability are much higher than his actual value and ability solely because of his role and save total. Capps is a good reliever, but the Twins paid for a great reliever and did so for all the wrong reasons.

We first talked about who might replace Octavio Dotel three months ago, during a tough stretch for the closer. Now that Buster Olney is reporting that teams feel that the Pirates will trade Dotel and install Joel Hanrahan as the closer, we have to revisit the situation.

First, Dotel probably won’t close wherever he goes. He has a 4.06 FIP, and despite owning a nice strikeout rate (10.95 K/9), he has a mediocre walk rate (4.14 BB/9) and a poor groundball rate (30.4%), so it’s hard to see which contending team would consider him an upgrade at closer. So enjoy the saves you have in the bank, and if you are in H2H, start looking for a replacement like pronto.

Second, is it crazy to think Hanrahan is the best Buc option at closer? He has the mythical closer experience, at least. This year, he’s paired that experience with his career-best strikeout rate (12.53 K/9, 9.93 K/9 career) and walk rate (3.02 BB/9, 4.78 BB/9 career). His groundball rate is passable – 37.2% – and therefore his FIP (2.80) and xFIP (2.96) are both very nice.

Let’s not forget Evan Meek, who is having a nice year of his own. His strikeout race is at his conventional level (8.22 K/9, 7.76 career K/9), but it’s the reigned-in walk rate that has made his year so special (2.35 BB/9, 4.35 career BB/9). Given his groundball rate (52.9%), it would not be crazy to label him the better pitcher despite his slightly higher FIP (2.85) and xFIP (3.19). If anyone’s HR/9 is going to move quickly in the second half, it would probably be Hanrahan’s, judging from their respective fly ball rates.

In the end, the report says Hanrahan, so that’s the way we should lean when we flock to the waiver wires today. He makes for a perfectly fine addition, and save for a couple rough stretches and the odd home run, will probably make his new owners happy.

As an aside, I did wonder if some ‘gaming the system’ was going on here. As mostly malcontent Murray Chass pointed out in an article on integrity, teams are becoming more savvy about manipulating arbitration times. While I don’t agree that this is a shortcoming – if you want different rules, change em – it’s true that teams like Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Florida probably delayed their prospects in order to keep them from achieving “Super Two” status.

Could Pittsburgh be doing something similar by keeping the (possibly) better pitcher (Meek) cheaper by keeping him out of the closer’s role? Arbitration committees would most certainly award a player with saves more money, even if that idea is silly. If Hanrahan was closer to free agency, this theory might make sense. Pump Hanrahan’s value up by installing him as closer, watch his salary escalate, and then trade him and turn to the cheaper Meek later – that was the theory. Too bad for the theory, Meek is only under control for a year longer than Hanrahan, so if this report is true, they must think that his gaudier strikeout rates make him a better fit at closer than Meek, straight up.

Neftali Feliz, Texas
Feliz continues to have a nice season and he saved three more games this past week. He also struck out four batters in 3.2 innings. The workload continues to worry me, so keep that in the back of your mind – especially if you’re in a keeper league. On the year, Feliz has 26 saves in 28 tries and has given up just 26 hits in 41.1 innings.

Andrew Bailey, Oakland
Bailey had a nice week with two saves and a win in three games. He did not allow an earned run and struck out two batters in 3.1 innings. Bailey has 20 saves and a solid ERA at 1.56 (xFIP of 4.15), but the low strikeout rate keeps him out of the “elite closer” category.

David Aardsma, Seattle
Aardsma could potentially change hands in the next week with the trade deadline looming. The right-hander looked good this past week with no runs allowed and six Ks in 3.0 innings of work. For the year, Aardsma has been up-and-down and sports a 4.88 ERA. He’s not an elite closer, but he’s a solid second closer for a fantasy team in a mixed league.

Kevin Gregg, Toronto
Aardsma’s trade value may have taken a bit of a bump up, but Gregg’s is certainly down. Toronto will most certainly not pick up his option for 2011 and the club may be afraid to offer him arbitration in the winter, so trading him now may be the only way to get a little (tiny) bit of value for him. Gregg has shown terrible control recently (four walks in 2.1 innings this past week) and he’s been toxic in high-leverage situations.

Rafael Soriano, Tampa Bay
Soriano appeared in just two games this past week and he was roughed up by Baltimore on July 20 and blew the save. Overall, though, it was his first blown save in eight games. He’s struggled with his command recently. Soriano previously went 17 games without issuing a walk but he’s given up three free passes in his last four appearances. He’s a solid bet going forward.

David Robertson, New York
Robertson isn’t in line for saves in New York any time soon, but he could be an attractive trade target for a smart general manager. The right-hander showed his stuff this past week with seven strikeouts in 4.1 innings. On the year, he currently sports a 4.76 ERA, but his xFIP sits at 3.87 and in parts of three seasons, he has an 11.50 K/9 rate. With a little more consistent control and command of his breaking ball, the 25-year-old reliever could become a solid eighth- or ninth-inning guy.

Koji Uehara, Baltimore
Alfredo Simon is currently “The Man” when it comes to save opportunities in Baltimore, but Uehara could see more opportunities later this year or into 2011. The Japanese veteran has been solid while pitching out of the bullpen since coming back from injury. The right-hander has a strikeout rate of 10.67 K/9 in ’10, compared to 6.48 K/9 when he was pitching out of the starting rotation in ’09. He comes at batters with no fewer than five different pitches, which helps make up for his 87 mph fastball.

Brian Wilson, San Francisco
The veteran closer was hot for the Giants this past week as he recorded four saves in as many tries. Appeared in an eye-popping five games in seven days, Wilson also took a loss on July 18 against the Mets. Over his 4.1 innings, the right-handed reliever struck out eight batters but gave up five hits. Along with a solid ERA of 1.93, Wilson has an attractive strikeout rate of 12.43 K/9.

Leo Nunez, Florida
Nunez had perhaps his most successful week of the year by recording three saves and a win without allowing a run in four appearances. He also struck out nine batters in 4.0 innings. The former Royals reliever has never posted a 10.00+ strikeout rate (career high is 7.86 K/9), but he’s currently sitting at 10.18 K/9. He’s also had an improved ground-ball rate (50.5%) over his previous fly-ball tendencies.

John Axford, Milwaukee
Axford gave up just one hit and one walk over 4.0 innings this past week, which helped him secure three saves. He also struck out six batters and did not allow a runner to reach home plate. The right-handed rookie has now saved 13 games in 26 appearances and has a strikeout rate of 11.40 K/9. His days of control issues appear to be mostly behind him and he currently has positive pitch type values on all three of his pitches: mid-90s fastball, slider and change-up.

Carlos Marmol, Chicago
The strikeouts keep piling up for Marmol (seven more this past week) but that does not mean that he had success. The monster right-hander blew a save and took the loss this past week. In four appearances, he gave up just one hit but walked five batters. Marmol has an awesome strikeout rate on the year of 16.88 K/9 but his walk rate sits at 6.55 BB/9 and his ground-ball rate is just 34.7%.

Billy Wagner, Atlanta
After a couple of scorching weeks, Wagner was due to cool down. The veteran closer gave up two runs, including a homer, over the past seven days. In 2.2 innings (over three games), Wagner gave up three hits but did not walk a batter and he struck out two. All his trouble came in one game against San Diego on July 21 so there is really no reason for concern; prior to the blow-up, Wagner had gone eight games without allowing a run.

Hong-Chih Kuo, Los Angeles
It’s hard to earn saves when you pitch with a guy like Jonathan Broxton, but Kuo has a lot of potential should the closer get injured (or a trade occurs). The right-hander pitched four innings this past week and did not allow a hit – although he did walk three batters. Kuo currently has a 0.86 ERA (3.07 xFIP) and a strikeout rate of 11.20 K/9 in 29 games. If he can avoid the disabled list going forward (a BIG if), Kuo has closer stuff.

Any efforts on the part of the Cleveland Indians to trade closer Kerry Wood got a little more difficult on Saturday, as the 33-year-old was placed on the DL with a finger blister. It’s the second time Wood has been sidelined this season, as the erstwhile Cub was shelved until early May with a strained right lat muscle in his back.

Since signing a two-year deal with the Tribe prior to 2009, Wood has earned around 15-$16 million while contributing 0.2 Wins Above Replacement. He was lights-out during his last season in Chicago (11.4 K/9, 2.44 BB/9, 3.07 xFIP, 2.2 WAR), but Wood’s control has been mediocre in Cleveland — he’s got 9.7 K/9, 4.7 BB/9 and a 4.36 xFIP in 75 innings since transitioning to the AL.

There’s still a chance that he gets traded — Wood could be back before the July 31st deadline, and there’s always the possibility of an August waiver deal. If Wood passes through waivers unclaimed in August, the Indians would be free to trade him to any club. If Wood gets claimed, Cleveland could: A.) revoke the waiver request, B.) make a deal within two business days with the club making the claim or they could C.) let the claiming team take Wood and his salary for a twenty grand fee (thanks, Cots Baseball Contracts and MLBTradeRumors).

With Wood out, Chris Perez is expected to take what save chances the Indians get. The former Hurricane, picked up from the St. Louis Cardinals (along with RHP Jess Todd) in the July 2009 Mark DeRosa deal, is available in nearly four-fifths of Yahoo leagues. Perez’s gleaming ERA and past as a top 100 prospect might lead some to think he’s breaking out in a big way, but the 25-year-old righty remains a work in progress.

In the minors, Perez used his mid-90’s fastball and low-to-mid-80’s slider to rack up 12 strikeouts per nine innings. However, he also issued a whopping six walks per nine frames, leaving him with a good-not-great 3.86 FIP in 113.1 IP. The story has been much the same in 133 big league innings over the 2008-2010 seasons — Perez has punched out over a batter per inning (9.41 K/9), but he has handed out a free pass every other frame (4.53 BB/9). He has also been a fly ball-centric pitcher, getting grounders just 35.7% of the time and serving up 1.15 HR/9. Overall, Perez has a 4.44 FIP and a 4.38 xFIP, a performance that has been exactly replacement-level.

That’s not to say that Perez won’t fare better in the future, but his current 2.62 ERA is based mostly on a .236 BABIP, as opposed to some marked improvement on his part. Perez gets ninth inning responsibilities for now, and he could keep them if Wood is swapped before July 31st or in a later August deal. But, without a change in Perez’s peripheral stats, decline is likely — ZiPS projects 9.64 K/9, 4.82 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 4.44 FIP for the rest of 2010.

It’s summer, it’s the weekend, and you ain’t got stuff to do. Well, maybe you should check that your lineups are set and your bench doesn’t have dead wood on it before you head out into the sun. You owe your fantasy teams that much at least.

Chris Perez, Cleveland (20% owned)
It’s your last chance to speculate on saves in Cleveland. The reasons to think Perez will be the eventual winner of the closer role are legion. He’s younger than Kerry Wood on a bad team looking to the future. He can be a better pitcher than Kerry Wood. He’s cheaper than Kerry Wood. Other teams are interested in trading for Kerry Wood. This is not to say that Perez is perfect. You’d like to see a lot more strikeouts than 7.60 per nine, a lot fewer walks than 4.72 per nine, and more groundballs than 32.6%. HIs 5.18 xFIP is really worrisome, actually, and you can see he’s been lucky (.236 BABIP, 82.1% LOB). On the other hand, his strikeout and walk rates have been much better in the past, and he does own a closer’s arsenal of strikeout stuff normally. He’s one of the better saves-speculation pickups out there, if not the best.

Jim Thome, Minnesota (5% owned)
On April 19th, Brian Joura big-upped Thome in his Waiver Wire piece. On May 19th, I reminded y’all. It’s another month later, so it’s time for your monthly Thome update. The most recent news has Justin Morneau hitting the DL with concussion issues and opening up a spot for Thome to play regularly. In OBP leagues, that’s all you had to say, because Thome is still elite in OBP (.372) and power (.287). If your league uses batting average, you’ll have to give him a longer think because he’ll never again post a nice batting average with those strikeout and contact rates.

Lorenzo Cain, Milwaukee (Yet to be added to Yahoo database)
With Doug Davis hitting the DL, the Brew crew decided to call up long-time prospect Cain to help man the outfield. There are bushels of caveats to mention in Cain’s case. First, he’s been around a while, and it took him five years to get through the Brewer’s minor league system, which is not usually a positive. Second, the twenty-four year old was never once dominating, as his .782 career and .846 full-year peak minor league OPSes can attest. He’s also pretty much a speed-only guy, judging from his career minor league .416 SLG and .124 ISO. He’s more of a slight speedster (6’2″ 200 lbs, 123 stolen bases in 572 minor league games at a 78% success rate). He was also rated “The Tumbler” by Marc Hulet because of strikeout issues last year. The last notch against him is that the Milwaukee outfield is still crowded… for now. Corey Hart is rumored to be leaving town soon, and deep league speed-starved managers could do worse for a speculative pickup here. At least Cain is coming off his best year as an amateur, hitting .326/.407/.439 combined so far in 2010. He also cut his strikeouts this year (down to 20.7% from 24.1%), so he’s going well right now.

It was an All-Star shortened week, but let’s have a look and see who was hot over the past seven days.

Alfredo Simon, Baltimore
Simon was the only AL closer to record more than one save this past week. He notched two stops without allowing a run or a free pass, which is no small feat for a guy with a walk rate of 4.68 BB/9 on the season. Simon currently features a 3.24 ERA but his xFIP of 4.51 suggests that you should be cautious with him moving forward. He’s really a one-pitch pitcher right now (fastball) as both his slider and splitter have negative pitch-type values.

Jose Valverde, Detroit
Valverde was successful in his only save opportunity of the week and he did not give up a run over two appearances. He also recorded three strikeouts. He continues to be helped by an incredibly lucky BABIP-allowed of just .169. His ground ball rate (improved by about 40% over his career norm) of 62.4% has helped him keep the ball in the park despite seeing a big drop in strikeout rate (10.72 career to 8.31 K/9 in 2010). It appears that he’s relying on his splitter much more than he has in the past.

Joba Chamberlain, New York
There weren’t really any closers that had terrible weeks in the AL, so it’s a good time to focus on Chamberlain since he’s the heir apparent to the closer’s role in New York. He blew a save and took the loss against Seattle on July 10. His season has not been nearly as bad as his 5.79 ERA would suggest. Chamberlain has a hit rate of 10.13 H/9 but his xFIP is just 3.38 and his BABIP-allowed sits at .380. On the plus side, both his walk rate (3.38 BB/9) and strikeout rate (9.64 K/9) have improved over 2009.

Andrew Bailey, Oakland
Again, it wasn’t a bad week for closers overall, so Bailey’s loss gets him on the list. The right-hander also saved a game this past week but he gave up three hits, two walks and a run in two appearances against the Angels. Bailey is still throwing well overall and has given up just two earned runs in his past 12 appearances. He’s also 6-for-6 in save opportunities since mid-June.

Chris Perez, Cleveland
With trade rumors swirling around Kerry Wood, Perez could find himself back in the closer’s role before you know it. He did himself no favors this past week, though, as he walked five batters in 1.1 innings of work. The walks came during a three-day span. He walked three batters in one-third of an inning of July 9 and two batters in 1.0 inning of July 11. Luckily, he did not allow a hit or a run during that rough patch. Since June 1, Perez had walked just three batters in 14 appearances prior to July 9. He also hasn’t given up a hit in five appearances dating back to late June.