Jason Grilli has been one of the top middle relievers in all of baseball so far this season, netting a 1.80/2.33/2.16 ERA/FIP/xFIP along with 0.5 wins out of the bullpen in exactly 20 innings. Currently, Grilli has the highest strikeout rate of his career, by far, at 42.7%.
•J.J. Putz was unavailable for Wednesday night’s game against the San Francisco Giants due to a stiff neck. The Diamondbacks’ closer received treatment prior to and during the early innings of last evening’s contest, but informed manager Kirk Gibson he wasn’t available when his neck didn’t loosen after trying to play catch in the fourth frame. David Hernandez came on in relief of Ian Kennedy with two outs in the eighth for the four-out save opportunity. Hernandez yielded two hits, but held the Giants scoreless to earn his first save of 2012.
In 24 appearances this season, Hernandez has been inducing swinging strikes at a career high 13.5% clip, which indicates his 12.52 K/9 (4.00 K/BB) looks to be real. In addition to the whiffs, solid ratios (1.93 ERA and 1.07 WHIP) make the Dbacks set-up man more than just a handcuff in deeper leagues.
Although Putz indicated he should be fine for Friday’s contest, Hernandez could get the call should there be any setback with his stiff neck.
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• Dale Thayer entered in the bottom of the ninth this afternoon with the hopes of preserving a 6-6 tie to send the Padres and Cubs to extras. Thayer surrendered a lead-off single to Bryan LaHair before serving up a walk-off two-run long ball to Darwin Barney.
Huston Street took to the bullpen at Wrigley Field this afternoon for a high-intensity session, and if he feels well tomorrow, the Padres’ closer could head to Class A Lake Elsinore on Friday to begin his rehab assignment. Prior to hitting the disabled list earlier this month with a right shoulder strain, Street converted each of his four save opportunities while strutting a 6.50 K/BB and a 2.10 xFIP in just under ten innings. Street, the Padres’ highest paid player at $7.5 million, figures to regain the closer’s role once given a clean bill of health.
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The key to having a K/BB higher than a K/9 is having a BB/9 under 1. That usually means a walk percentage below 3%. To put a walk rate that low into perspective, the league average walk rate for relievers is 9.3%, so a rate under 3% is just tremendous. Here are three relievers who have walk rates so low that their K/BB rate is better than their K/9 rate. These guys can help a fantasy team due to the low amount of base runners they allow on along with relatively high strikeout rates. In a linear weights league like ottoneu, relievers like this become even more valuable.
• The Cubs closing situation sounds like it could become as foggy as the one Mike Scioscia has control over in southern California. Apparently earlier this morning, Dale Sveum was quoted as saying Casey Coleman would have closed yesterday had a save situation arose. This comment was made all the more interesting by the fact that the Cubs had a save situation today and Casey Coleman was nowhere to be found. Instead, Shawn Camp pitched the eighth (stranding a runner at third he inherited with no outs), leading everyone in Wrigley to figure “OK, James Russell for the ninth.” Well, surprise, surprise, out trots Camp for the ninth — so, two-inning save? Not really. Sveum left Camp in to pitch to Chase Headley — ironically, a switch-hitter without a discernible platoon split. After Headley was retired, Sveum switched gears and called on Russell to face the left-handed John Baker, the switch-hitting Everth Cabrera and the pinch-hitting righty, Nick Hundley. Outside of a bloop double just out of the reach of Darwin Barney, Russell was able to finish off the 5-3 game uneventfully and provide his fantasy owners with the key “S” in the box score.
Camp (and even Coleman) are both right-handed and superior pitchers peripherally to Russell (who sports a mediocre career big league xFIP of 4.50) so it would seem Camp or Coleman would be the logical favorites for ninth inning duties. However, Russell appears to have the all-important manager’s confidence, and, combined with the fact that today’s game showed Sveum seems content to play matchups and/or ride the hot hand, is very much in the mix as well. Side note: Carlos Marmol is now back from the DL — he is not imminently close to the ninth inning, but it wouldn’t be out of the question for him to slip back into the mix down the road. Keep an eye on him as he works low-leverage situations.
Hoping you all enjoyed your Memorial Day, ending with the latest edition of the Bullpen Report!
• In a tie game in the 7th inning this afternoon, the Mets brought in Bobby Parnell who proceeded to give up a run on two hits and a walk, getting the loss against the Phillies. Then, down by one run in the 8th, Jon Rauch pitched a scoreless inning, giving up a single to Cole Hamels. What does this mean to all of us desperate for saves? It means that Frank Francisco is still the Mets closer and there is no strong inclination on who would be next in line. Frustrating, I know. For now, Rauch seems to have the inside track if something happens to Frank Squared, but Parnell’s skillset (9.58 K/9) will provide more value for your team in a non-closer capacity.
Here are a few bullpen notes between the last Bullpen Report and Sunday’s games…
• The Cubs removed Rafael Dolis from the closer role after an ugly ninth inning, tie-game appearance versus the Pirates where he forced in the game-winning run with a hit by pitch. Dolis has been walking the tightrope all season, balancing with a mediocre 3.9 K/9 and a dumbfounding 0.73 K/BB (driving a 5.14 xFIP), and that was before he came on in mop up duty today and faced two batters — walking both. James Russell (5.23 xFIP, 1.50 K/BB) and Shawn Camp (3.70 xFIP, 2.75 K/BB) will share closing duties for now. Camp is right-handed and the superior pitcher, so he should be considered the lead dog in the race for saves, but both might get opportunities, at least until someone takes the job and runs with it (or someone drags Carlos Marmol from a 2010 time machine).
• So Heath Bell implosion in Miami. Yes, yes, shocking development. Bell came in with a stat-padding, three-run lead and promptly sandwiched a groundout between three ringing line-drive hits before manager Ozzie Guillen mercifully yanked him. Steve Cishek trotted in and induced a flyout, then whiffed the en fuego Melky Cabrera with a runner on 2nd to nail down the 7-6 win. Bell’s 2012 woes are well documented. His actual pitch profile is not terribly unlike 2010 — his fastball is down a tick velocity-wise, but not dramatically so, and the overall movement on his main two pitches (fastball and curveball) is surprisingly close to his 2011 numbers. However, his command has been awful. His current walk rate is over double his career average, and when he isn’t missing the strike zone, he’s busy grooving get-me-over fastballs after falling behind in the count — a habit he fell victim to this evening. The bad xFIP (now 5.95) and awful strikeout rates aren’t getting any better. You probably will still hear a steady drone of “Bell has the contract, they aren’t paying him not to close,” but Cishek still needs to be owned in all leagues.
You’d have been hard-pressed this offseason to find an unbiased observer who didn’t think that the three-year, $27 million contract that the Marlins handed to closer Heath Bell was foolish. (In fact, look no further than our own Paul Swydan’s review in December.) Yet while few liked the idea of giving such a large contract to a declining closer on a team which had more pressing needs, nobody could have foreseen just how disastrous Bell’s Miami debut would be. After blowing four saves in his first eleven appearances with the Marlins, Bell was bounced from his job in early May, and it was no fluke; after melting down on May 4 against his old San Diego teammates, Bell had struck out just six in 8.2 innings while allowing 25 baserunners and 11 earned runs.
Bell’s demotion lasted only about a week, as Steve Cishek & Edward Mujica handled the late-inning duties for the club until Bell returned to the role on May 11. Since then, Bell has seen better results, saving four and winning two in seven outings. That’s miles ahead of his performance in April, and considering his reputation & contract this turnaround ought to be enough to solidify his hold on the closer’s job for the foreseeable future. Fantasy players have noticed, since he’s among the most-added relievers this week after many had cut bait on him earlier this month.
Yet while that all seems nice on the surface… it’s hard to say that he’s “back”, isn’t it? Read the rest of this entry »
• Chris Perez earned his third save in as many days against the division rival Detroit Tigers, giving him 16 on the young season and tying him for the Major League lead with Baltimore’s Jim Johnson. Due to some of the struggles with his K/BB (1.50) and xFIP (5.01) in 2011, some speculated that Vinnie Pestano could be a candidate to succeed Perez in the ninth inning should he experience the same issues. However, with a slightly improved K/BB (2.57) and xFIP (3.88) through twenty appearances and 16 consecutive handshakes since blowing his first chance of the season, Perez should continue to get the ninth inning call. Don’t lose track of Pestano though, as he will be waiting on the door step with the superior K/BB (4.33) and xFIP (2.64) should Perez lose control.
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