On Wednesday afternoon, the Brewers and Reds played a matinee in Milwaukee. Thanks to run-scoring eighth-inning hits by Carlos Gomez & Ryan Braun, the Brewers entered the bottom of the ninth with a narrow 3-2 lead. Yet when they trotted out to finish off their victory, it wasn’t behind regular closer John Axford, who’d finished ninth in the Cy Young Award voting in 2011, or even backup closer Francisco Rodriguez, still the record-holder for most saves in a season. It was 29-year-old Jim Henderson, a veteran of ten minor-league seasons (and former Expos draftee!) who’d been called up to make his major league debut less than two weeks earlier, on July 26.

Henderson retired three of the four hitters he saw with two strikeouts, his second save in as many games, and all of a sudden the struggling Milwaukee bullpen has an interesting new contender for saves, an idea almost unthinkable at the beginning of the season. Of course, no one would have expected a bullpen led by Axford & Rodriguez to be quite this bad, but the numbers don’t lie:

Milwaukee bullpen (stats entering Wednesday)
ERA: 4.90, worst in MLB
BB/9: 4.25, 29^th in MLB
AVG: .271, 29^th in MLB
WHIP: 1.55, worst in MLB
LOB%: 68.1, 29^th in MLB
LD%: 23.8, worst in MLB
HR/FB%: 13.1, 27^th in MLB
BS: 21, 29^th in MLB

Some of those statistics are admittedly imperfect and there are others that show the Brewer relief corps in a better light, but it’s hard to look at that list and not think this is one of the worst-performing groups in the game. It’s a team effort that’s not entirely on Axford (4.23 FIP/5.21 ERA) and Rodriguez (4.48 FIP/5.48 ERA), but they’re clearly the worst offenders among those with any real playing time. Rodriguez in particular has been brutal since July 1 (9.23 ERA), and each has been shuffled in and out of high-leverage roles this year as Ron Roenicke struggles to find some sort of success at the back end of his staff.

Now, when Henderson received his first save opportunity on Monday, it could be chalked up to a simple matter of availability, since Axford & Rodriguez had each thrown 24 or more pitches on Sunday. What made yesterday’s save chance so interesting is that Rodriguez was never used and that Axford came in with the Brewers down 2-1 in the eighth, not exactly the usage one would expect for a closer. Though Roenicke has declined to make anything official, the struggles of his two incumbents and the way in which he used Henderson on Wednesday may indicate a willingness to play the hot hand.

So who is Jim Henderson, anyway? Like Axford, he’s a Canadian finally making his debut in his late 20s after years toiling in the minors; also like Axford, he’s always had a powerful arm but struggled with both control and harnessing secondary pitches. In 48 Triple-A innings this year, he struck out 10.5 per 9 while also walking 4.1 per nine, though he’s managed to get off to a sparkling 10/1 K/BB start in the bigs, averaging over 95 miles per hour on his fastball.

As we say often, closers are made, not born, and simply getting the opportunity to be on the mound in the ninth can transform an uninspiring fantasy option into a valuable one, simply because of that one stat. It’s premature to expect that Henderson has suddenly leaped over Axford to become the primary Milwaukee closer, yet with Axford struggling and Rodriguez all but unusable right now, it’s easy to see Henderson becoming a cheap short-term source of saves if you’re in need. The Brewers have Thursday off before heading into Houston to start a series with the atrociously bad Astros, a set in which they’re all but guaranteed to have a lead heading into the late innings at least once. If and when that happens, it’ll be tremendously interesting to see who Roenicke sends out in the ninth.

With the real trade deadline passing and the likelihood of closers changing roles for any other reason than poor performance or injury at its season-long low point, looking ahead to the future for dynasty and keeper leagues is an overlooked focus point as the season ends. Some leagues still have not hit their trade deadline, so looking to acquire or hold onto certain players who are currently competing for roles next year has its advantages.

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• Last night Nationals closer Tyler Clippard blew the save against the Astros, but Drew Storen also looked shaky issuing two walks while only getting one out in the inning. Nationals manager Davey Johnson indicated that Tyler Clippard will remain the closer, but said he will also use Storen as needed and is “real confident right now in either Clip or Storen closing.” Expect Tyler Clippard to still receive save opportunities but if Storen pitches well, Clippard won’t have the luxury of many more blown saves to keep his job.

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• The Royals decided to let lefty reliever Jose Mijares go as the Giants picked him up on a waiver claim today. Jose Mijares is a solid matchup against left-handed hitters (.273 wOBA against lefties compared to .358 wOBA against righties) but he doesn’t figure to enter the closer discussion on San Francisco. However, the Mijares addition allows the Giants to use him as a lefty specialist and let Jeremy Affeldt be part of a closer-by-committee approach at least while Santiago Casilla heals from a recurring blister according to manager Bruce Bochy. Casilla, Sergio Romo and Jeremy Affeldt should all receive opportunities in the upcoming weeks, and all should be owned at least until the situation starts to sort itself out more clearly.

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Today’s Bullpen Report focuses on two guys who fantasy owners have been riding in 2012, but whose peripherals suggest that some of their acts may be smoke and mirrors.

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• Steve Cishek recorded his sixth save — coming on to retire Danny Espinosa via strikeout after Josh Johnson was unable to finish off a complete game. Ozzie Guillen had stated that he was planning on going with a committee after Heath Bell’s lastest run of implosions but it’s growing clear that Cishek is (at the very least) way out in front of the group. Cishek’s 1.81 ERA makes him out to be a bit better of a pitcher than he actually has been this season (3.93 xFIP) mostly because he probably has a few too many walks on the whole (10.7%). The other major concern with investing in Cishek as a full-time closer remains his platoon splits — the low arm slot righty has a sterling career 0.239 wOBA against right-handed hitters, but has a more pedestrian 0.307 versus lefties (0.349 in 2012). That said, even if these numbers may not imply long-time stability in the closer’s role, it’s pretty obvious that @srSHREK31 has a good enough grip on the majority of save opps that he deserves to be lifted from red-light territory (for now).

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With the trade of Jonathan Broxton, Greg Holland has now been announced as the Royals’ closer for the remainder of the year, barring significant struggles in the role. With the announcement coming yesterday, Holland is most likely already rostered in meaningful fantasy leagues, so grabbing him is probably not possible at this point. Rather than simply say to acquire him, I’ll try and figure out whether Holland should succeed or struggle as a closer and how valuable he should be for the rest of the year.

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• Greg Holland owners, your patience has finally paid off! Jonathan Broxton was traded today to the Reds and while he may see an occasional save opportunity to spell Aroldis Chapman, his days of being the primary closer this year are over. Meanwhile, Greg Holland will be the Royals new closer and he certainly has the stuff to be a successful one. Although his 3.63 ERA and 1.56 WHIP don’t suggest  a top notch closer, he’s been unlucky with a .388 BABIP and his 2.92 xFIP and 12.71 K/9 illustrate the ability he has to be one of the premier closers in fantasy baseball.

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• The Rockies haven’t been able to give many save chances to their closer Rafael Betancourt who’s had a solid year pitching to a 3.62 xFIP with a 9.24 K/9 and they may not have many more opportunities as Betancourt trade rumors are heating up.  Troy Renck lists Oakland, Atlanta, Toronto, Texas and the Anaheim part of Los Angeles as possible suitors for Betancourt and if he’s traded, Matt Belisle or Rex Brothers could take over closing duties for Colorado. Rex Brothers may have more potential and the better swing and miss stuff (11.90 K/9; 14.1% SwStr%) but he’s a lefty and I’d expect Matt Belisle to get the first nod. Belisle has been one of the more underrated relievers over the last few years and has continued to excel this season with a 2.98 xFIP in 53 innings pitched.

• Over the weekend Colin noted Jim Johnson’s recent struggles and although he let two batters reach base tonight against the Yankees he was able to strike out two en route to his 31st, and major league leading, save of the season. With the expanded playoffs, Baltimore is still in the race so Johnson’s job is still relatively secure but he can’t afford any more six run blow ups like he had last week.

• Frank Francisco is currently on the DL but that might change soon as he’s now planning on returning to the Mets this weekend against the Padres. Although Francisco had converted 18 of the 21 save opportunities he received for the Mets, he didn’t pitch particularly well with a 4.97 ERA and 4.21 xFIP. Bobby Parnell blew a couple of saves in a row a few weeks ago, but besides that he’s been great for the Mets with a 3.06 xFIP on the year. My money is on Francisco regaining the job for the Mets, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Parnell get another chance before the season’s end as Francisco has been both injured and inconsistent while Parnell has pitched better.

• Bad news for Luke Gregerson owners this week as Huston Street signed a two-year $14 million extension with the Padres. Street was obviously in trade rumors the past few weeks but his extension ensures that he will at least stay on the Padres for the remainder of 2012. Gregerson has been a reliable reliever to help your ratios (3.17 xFIP; 1.14 WHIP) but any value he had for potential saves is now gone.

• Pitching in the seventh inning tonight against the Brewers, Francisco Cordero gave four hits and two runs and his time as the Astros closer might be over. As of this writing, no change has been made but Wilton Lopez would make a nice pick up right about now. Cordero has appeared in five games for the Astros this year and so far he’s blown three saves while giving up eight runs.

For those of you who play daily fantasy games like FanGraphs: The Game, or just like to stream players, here is a matchup you may be able to exploit.

A Pitcher for Tomorrow: Ernesto Frieri (LAA) at TEX

It’s never a bad decision to avoid pitchers in Texas but with Jered Weaver on the hill the Angels have a great shot at a win. Frieri is also well rested having last pitched on Friday, so look for him to have a chance for a save and strikeouts against the Rangers.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

• Ugly, ugly, ugly in Milwaukee. The combination of Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford gave up six runs between the eighth and ninth innings today (four hits, two walks, two wild pitches) to help Milwaukee blow a 5-2 lead against the Nationals. With K-Rod starting the eighth inning, signs pointed to Axford getting back into the saves mix after throwing five consecutive scoreless outings (5/2 K/BB over 5.1 innings) and he was called upon to attempt to bail out the visibly wild Rodriguez before allowing two of his inherited runners to score in addition to the three he let cross the plate in the ninth. Axford’s 3.14 xFIP paints the picture of a guy unlucky enough to have an unfathomably high 20.0 HR/FB%; although Brewers fans probably take little solace in those results. That said, his FIP (which doesn’t normalize the home run rate, so he’s penalized for all seven dingers he’s given up this season) is still 4.14, a full run lower than his 5.11 ERA. In fact, even with today’s outing, Axford still owns the lowest xFIP on the Brew Crew. Even with that knowledge, Ron Roenicke was pushing a committee as recently as a few days ago, so given today’s events, Kameron Loe (3.60 xFIP, 3.10 over the last thirty days) might be in the running to pitch the ninth while Axford and Rodriguez lick their wounds.

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