Two oft-injured pitchers are struggling with performance right now, and have already seen the disabled list this season. And yet they have enough upside to remain on rosters. When they’re right, they are top-half closers. Right now, too much looks wrong.
Welcome to July and the halfway point of the season! Now is the time to see how much ground you can gain in saves and holds as we inch closer to both the MLB trading deadline and your league specific deadline. A few bullpen situations are sure to change and we’ll provide the latest and greatest rumors so you can snag that next-in-line closer before the current one is moved.
• Koji Uehara blew his first save as the anointed Red Sox closer last night but was actually fortunate enough to receive the win. The last time the Sox made a closer switch, Junichi Tazawa was named closer but the Sox are now going with Uehara. I don’t think the Red Sox will be so fickle as to remove Uehara because of a rough outing or two, especially since he’s pitching to a 2.58 xFIP. However, considering the Sox gave him the first chance and the fact Uehara might receive a few more days off than a normal closer to keep him fresh, Tazawa should remained owned in fantasy leagues. Even if he wasn’t going to sniff the ninth inning Tazawa is worthwhile of a roster spot with a 2.94 xFIP, a 9.73 K/9 and the third best strikeout to walk ratio among all relievers.
• The Carlos Marmol saga in Chicago comes to an end as he was designated for assignment today. The Cubs now have 10 days to trade Marmol, but considering they’ve been trying that for parts of two or more seasons, I don’t think that’s a possibility. Carlos Marmol has been the Adam Dunn of pitching with a fantastic 29.8% career K% but with all those swings and misses were the bases on balls of course (15.5% BB%). For a brief stretch Marmol was one of the better fantasy closers in the game. Although his ERA and WHIP were never elite, he struck out 138 batters in 2010 with a 2.55 ERA. Marmol slipped since then and has never reached that peak, bottoming out in 2013 with a 5.86 ERA and 6.16 FIP. If someone else picks him up, it should at least be intriguing watching him the feast or famine from Marmol.
It’s strange to say, but Kevin Gregg’s cemented as the Cubs closer (until he gets traded) and behind him to see the late innings is James Russell, as well as Blake Parker . James Russell has been solid all season although he’s struggled against right-handed hitting with .346 wOBA against them thus far. Blake Parker’s only thrown 9.2 innings this year but he’s been effective with a 3.16 xFIP and a 10.24 K/9. There is trade interest in Kevin Gregg as we mentioned and if he’s gone, Parker is someone to keep an eye on for potential saves.
• Joe Nathan is having a fine 2013. After picking up save number 25 last night he’s now supporting a 2.90 FIP. Nathan gives up a lot of fly balls (47.6% FB%) and he’s running a little hot with so few of them going over the fence (3.80 xFIP) but he’s a solid reliever who will give you about a strikeout per inning on one of the better teams in the league. Behind Nathan in the Texas bullpen has been Tanner Scheppers but that soon may change with Joakim Soria on a rehab assignment, scheduled to return around the All-Star break. Soria last pitched in 2011 on the Royals and if he can find some of his former mojo, he and Nathan could form one of the premier set up and closer combos in the game.
• So it looks like the horrible rehab outing by Chris Perez last night might affect his timetable to return as he won’t be activated off of the disabled list Friday anymore. Perez will need another rehab appearance but it still shouldn’t be too long until he’s closing in Cleveland. In his place of course is currently Vinnie Pestano, who has two saves in place of Perez but has not been without his own troubles this year.
A slightly abbreviated report this evening:
• Chris Perez pitched for the AA Akron Aeros today on a rehab assignment and the results weren’t pretty. As far as rehab assignments go, having no set backs on your recovery is all that really matters, but Chris Perez allowed 5 runs on 5 hits, 3 HRs, 1 double and hit a batter just for show as well. On the bright side, he did get two strikeouts! In all seriousness, I wouldn’t put too much weight on this rehab performance as the important part is that he’s recovering from injury and should return to Cleveland soon, but those waiting to cut ties with Vinnie Pestano might want to hold a tad longer. Additionally, jokes made about how Perez is showing he’s in mid-season form are pretty good.
• Speaking of Pestano, Perez’ replacement recorded his second save of the season tonight against the Royals. Pestano threw a scoreless ninth but it wasn’t smooth sailing as he allowed four batters to reach base in the inning. Pestano has not been that sharp this year (5.31 FIP) but Francona will keep handing him the ball in the ninth with Perez on the shelf, who as of this writing is still scheduled to return to the Indians on Friday.
• Bobby Parnell recorded a four-out save today against the Braves today in the first game of the double header for his 10th of the year. Parnell’s name hasn’t been involved in many trade rumors but it was announced that the Mets will not be shopping Parnell at the deadline. Parnell would be more attractive pitching for another team in 2013 but he’s been solid with a 2.09 FIP this year.
• Andrew Bailey was awarded his third win of the season tonight but it was at the expense of his third blown save. Bailey, who has mostly been good this season when he’s pitched is in a little bit of a funk at the moment with five earned runs allowed and two blown saves in his last three appearances. Since returning from the DL, Bailey has seen his velocity decline which makes you wonder if Bailey could still be hurting or if he will be pitching with slightly less velocity from here on out. Any way you slice it, although Bailey remains closer in Boston, Junichi Tazawa gets a little more attractive in fantasy leagues.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
• Casey Janssen closed out a win for the Blue Jays tonight against the Rockies for his 15th save of the year but of more particular interest to us is Brett Cecil who go the last two outs in the eighth inning. Cecil recorded a win and is now 3-0 with a 1.53 ERA and 2.03 FIP on the year with a 4/1 strikeout to walk ratio. Brett Cecil came on to face two lefties in Carlos Gonzalez and Todd Helton but Cecil is more than just a LOOGY out of the pen with a .262 wOBA against right-handed batters this year. Cecil, along with Steve Delabar are the main set up options in Toronto to provide holds all year and if something were to happen to Mr. Janssen, don’t be surprised to see Cecil get a chance to see the ninth.
TWIB – This Weekend In Bullpens:
• Things are getting very interesting in Detroit. After Jim Leyland previously stated that Jose Valverde was their closer, Joaquin Benoit got the four-out save today, his fourth of the year. This time Jim Leyland said “I’m going to do whatever I think it takes for the Tigers to win the game, and today I felt like my best option was Benoit.” I’m sure all of Detroit and Benoit owners everywhere would agree Benoit was the best option, but whether or not Leyland will think Benoit is the best option next time, nobody really knows. If Leyland is going to do whatever it takes for the Tigers to win, Benoit will be the guy but he has a love affair with Valverde. There relationship is on the rocks and the moment and Leyland could look Benoit’s way but without an official word, we can’t say Valverde is out of the picture. I’d run to pick up Benoit and would consider this an unofficial closer-by-committee until we hear more from Leyland or can see how the next few games play out.
When Jose Valverde and Kevin Gregg rose from their respective graves to close games, who thought Gregg would be the more prudent acquisition?
• Jose Valverde is still the Tigers closer. According to his manager, Jim Leyland “we’re going to use Jose Valverde until we decide Jose Valverde can’t do it or we have someone else better, just like everyone else does.” That may not sound like the strongest praise for Papa Grande, but the closer he shall remain. While Valverde throws a fastball and a splitter, performance wise, Jose Valverde is essentially a one-pitch pitcher nowadays. In 2013, his fastball has been worth 1.5 runs above average, per 100 pitches while his splitter has been worth -9.67 runs above average, per 100 pitches. Considering Valverde’s getting strikeouts at a below average rate overall and isn’t fooling anyone with his splitter, I don’t expect any better results out of Valverde this season, in fact I might expect worse. Joaquin Benoit (2.60 FIP) has been great this season but the Tigers don’t seem to want him closing and if a move is made to replace Valverde, I still feel it might come outside of the organization. Nevertheless, Valverde will receive the next opportunities, and needless to say, this situation could be very fluid soon.
As I click publish on this post, Valverde entered the game with a four run lead, walked the leadoff batter, got a fortuitous double play and then issued a HBP.
• Tom Wilhelmsen had a night to forget yesterday against the Astros, blowing his fourth save of the year. By the time the game was over, Wilehlmsen gave up five earned runs on three hits and two walks. Sure, the relievers who replaced Wilhelmsen could have done a better job with their inherited runners, but it’s also the fifth time in the last eight outings that Wilhelmsen has given up at least one run. Wilhelmsen’s ERA now stands at 3.77 and although his FIP looks more impressive at 3.17, he’s yet to allow a fly ball to go over the wall making his 4.46 xFIP more indicative of how he’s pitching at the moment. Last year Wilhelmsen had a 9.87 K/9 and 10.7 SwStr% and in 2013 those have dipped to 6.59 K/9 with a 9.7% SwStr%.
Wilhelmsen’s velocity isn’t to blame either as he’s averaged 95.9 mph on his fastball, right in line with his career average. However, his control of it (and/or all of his repertoire) sure has changed, with Wilhelmsen putting up a 4.71 BB/9 this year, significantly higher than the 3.29 BB/9 in 2012. After the game, Eric Wedge said that Wilhelmsen is their closer but from listening to the clip, it doesn’t sound like his job is too secure, and they may need to have a “conversation” about it. The problem for the Mariners is there aren’t many great options behind Wilhelmsen to close but I’d say Carter Capps and Charlie Furbush are the best bets. Furbush has turned himself into a stirkeout throwing lefty with an ability to get opposite handed hitters out, but my guess for Wilhelmsen’s replacement would be Capps. Although his numbers aren’t particularly great, the big 6’5” righty can strike guys out (10.93 K/9) with his high 90s heat while showing some solid control (2.25 BB/9). As Wedge said, Wilhelmsen is still closing, but this is certainly a situation worth monitoring and I’d snag Capps if I had an open spot. Read the rest of this entry »