The Tigers claimed Chad Qualls on revocable waivers, and so there might be a new closing job open soon. Condolences to people with deep league teams, like my AL-LABR squad, who are looking at losing their only closer. It might not yet happen — the Astros own Qualls for $3.5 million next year, and that’s very reasonable, even for a below-average closer. At some point, this team needs to think about keeping their assets.

But for now, let’s assume Qualls goes. Who would close behind him?

Read the rest of this entry »

• Unfortunately for Sean Doolittle owners, he was recently placed on the DL with an “intercostal strain.” Dan Otero, who had recently been demoted to AAA, has been recalled to Oakland to replace Doolittle. According to Susan Slusser, Eric O’Flaherty is likely to fill in as closer (at first), becoming a must own in all fantasy leagues. As of this writing, O’Flaherty was warming up to pitch in the ninth inning with a save situation, a promising sign for teams looking for saves.  We’ll update the grid as we get more information but for now it seems like O’Flaherty in the lead with Luke Gregerson and Otero setting up. Ryan Cook is also worth a look as he could get some saves as well, but it seems like Melvin wants to keep Gregerson and Otero in their familiar setup roles. It’s worth noting that O’Flaherty is a lefty but that didn’t seem to affect Melvin’s decision to use Doolittle as closer and in 189.2 career innings against righties O’Flaherty has a .306 wOBA against, so it’s not as if opposite handed hitters feast off of him.

Read the rest of this entry »

• White Sox at Yankees: David Robertson furnished save #34. D-Rob has only blown 2 saves all year this year and has done an awfully good job displacing Mariano Rivera. In fact, as a closer, Mariano Rivera never reached a 30% K-Rate and his career contact rate was 79.7%. D-Rob has a sub-70% contact rate this year and could be even better next year assuming the luck stats (BABIP based on his inflated line drive rate this year; HR/FB and LOB%) all take a step forward next year. It will be interesting to see where D-Rob lands next year considering he deserves a big payday and the Yankees still have another dominate K%(39.9%)/Contact%(70%) reliever in Dellin Betances. D-Rob got the 10th best K%-BB% in baseball right now: 28.5% tied with Koji Uehara.
• Rays at Blue Jays: Casey Janssen has offset an awful K-rate with the best BB-rate of his career, but he walked Wil Myers tonight to start the 9th and blew a save after a couple of singles. Brad Boxberger pulls an Armando Benitez and gives up a 2R-HR to Dioner Navarro and a double to Colby Rasmus. We were getting pretty spoiled with Boxberger: 8 scoreless innings since August 10th with a 13:1 K:BB ratio and only 3 hits. Between Koji Uehara yesterday as well as Boxberger and Ken Giles today, the R2M (Regression to the Means) Monster hit me hard this weekend.

Read the rest of this entry »

Apologies for a more abbreviated Report tonight but I’ll be sure to hit the comment section hard throughout the day tomorrow.

• Trevor Rosenthal blew his fifth save late last night, continuing some of his recent struggles. Pat Neshek has had an incredible season thus far and is worth owning regardless of how well Rosie is pitching but he’s certainly more of a must add considering Rosenthal has allowed earned runs in his last three outings. However, Mike Matheny is still behind Rosie and it’s worth putting his struggles in some context. From July 8th to August 13th, Rosenthal allowed only two earned runs in 14.1 innings pitched with a 19/4 K/BB and since then has walked 6 batters, allowing four earned runs in 2.1 innings pitched. If Rosenthal was a starter we would chalk it up to a bad outing, but as a closer it carries more meaning, often more than is deserved.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Jenrry Mejia’s woes continued in today’s game against the Cubs. Mejia entered in the ninth inning with the Mets down 2-1 and allowed two runs off of a Javier Baez homer. Mejia has dealt with a calf issue previously and will need surgery on a hernia in the offseason and it’s clearly affected his performance of late. As of this writing, Terry Collins hasn’t said anything about Mejia’s role moving forward but Jeurys Familia should be owned in all league’s, check your wire immediately.  It’s also worth noting that with knowledge of all these ailments, Terry Collins had Mejia pitch the fourth time in five games, probably not the smartest decision by his manager. A few weeks ago I felt safe assuming Mejia as the Mets closer on opening day 2015 but there is a real chance Familia takes the role this year, muddling Mejia’s chances next year along with Bobby Parnell who should be back from TJ surgery. Also of note, Vic Black recorded two outs in today’s game, lowering his ERA to 2.01. Although he profiles as a potential closer, he’s still behind Familia in the pecking order but that may be the best for his future health on the Mets.

Read the rest of this entry »

For my first Bullpen Report, I wanted to provide additional value so I blasted “Enter Sandman” and sprinted toward my office to write this.

Below the report of yesterday’s games, you will find rankings for 5×5 (W,ERA,WHIP,K,SV) and 6×6 (+Holds) leagues based on Zach Sander’s FVARz approach. For reference, I used 108 active Pitchers = 9 P x 12 teams and 25 IP as a qualifier. Why 25? I didn’t want to leave Ken Giles off the list.

But there’s more. In addition to their fantasy value, I’ve z-scored outcomes on the plate appearance level to depict pitcher skill (K%-BB%, Ct%, GB/FB, F-Str%, and IFFB% weighed by their correlations to ERA) and luck (BABIP, HR/FB and LOB% weighed by their correlations to ERA) thus far this season. To back up the top 20 relievers ranked by my “Skill” Score, I also furnished grids on their pitch outcomes, which depicts how well their individual pitches induce whiffs and grounders vs. flies.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Steve Cishek had the night off and the Marlins went with Bryan Morris to start the ninth inning with a three run lead. After recording two outs and allowing two base runners, Mike Dunn came on for the one out save against the lefty Matt Adams. As we noted last night Cishek’s job is still safe but today’s outing gives us some insight into the pecking order behind him. I’m in agreement with the grid as Morris and A.J. Ramos set the table for Cishek. However, as a solid LOOGY, Dunn could steal a save opportunity or two when a tough lefty arises.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Matt Lindstrom will be activated tomorrow and while he may see some time in the ninth inning before the year is over, I wouldn’t drop Jacob Petricka just yet. Petricka isn’t as good as his ERA suggests (2.02) but he’s done well enough to merit holding the job over a just off the DL Lindstrom. If you really need saves then take a flier on Lindstrom but he only has value if he’s seeing the ninth inning as he doesn’t have swing and miss stuff and is unlikely to even help your ratios. However, those in holds leagues could take a more serious look, as Lindstrom should find his way into some later, higher leverage innings, even if it’s not in the ninth.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Carlos Carrasco’s move to the bullpen brought some intrigue to see what he could do handling one or two inning workloads. Tonight he was extended a bit throwing four innings and allowing three runs, but he still struck out five batters while issuing just one walk. Carrasco has an above average strikeout rate and an even more impressive swinging strike % (11.6%) indicating he has actual bat missing ability. He won’t make much noise this year and Cody Allen has a tight grasp on the closing gig in Cleveland, but Carrasco is someone to eye next year as he may be called on to pitch higher leverage innings. As a reliever, Carrasco’s allowed only 11 runs in 43 innings this season. Surprisingly his K-rate has declined in the relief role but I’d toss that up to small sampling as he has legitimate swing and miss stuff. It’s likely that Carraso has found a new permanent home in the bullpen and he can certainly help your ratios, strikeouts and even get a hold or two.

• There wasn’t a save situation tonight with a four run lead in the ninth inning but A.J. Ramos got the final two outs of the seventh with Bryan Morris pitching a perfect eighth. That seems to be the standard operating procedure for the Marlins at the end of games these days, with Morris and Ramos handing it off to Cishek. Over the last couple of seasons, Steve Cishek’s name has either been involved in trade rumors or as a closer who could lose his job. Sadly, to speculative fantasy baseball owners, neither of those has come to fruition. The Marlins were buyers at the deadline and nothing should really change next year so expect a lot of Ramos – Morris – Cishek moving forward in Miami.

• Jonathan Papelbon struck out the side in a tie game in the ninth inning tonight, albeit while also issuing two walks. Papelbon doesn’t serve a large purpose on a team in the Phillies situation, so he’s clearly on the table in trades up until the waiver deadline on August 31st. Such a trade might not be likely but each performance will be crucial for his trade value.

• There was a minor transaction today as the Nationals picked up lefty Matt Thornton from the Yankees after placing a claim on him. Thornton’s 2.55 ERA is nice but his 0.0% HR/FB suggests some good fortune and his 3.90 xFIP isn’t too appealing. Back in the day Thornton threw gas from the left side, always striking out more than a batter an inning. In recent years, Thornton is still throwing gas from the left side but without the same swing and miss results. In fact, over the last three years his SwStr% have all been below average. Thornton likely won’t cost the Nationals anything to upgrade their lefty options in the pen, but he won’t move the needle much for the Nats or your fantasy team. As far as the Yankees are concerned, look for David Huff to see more higher leverage action against lefties. Huff has allowed only 5 ER in 23 innings for the Yankees this year and while he isn’t too fantasy relevant (AKA not at all) he is the primary left handed reliever for the Yankees moving forward.

• Quick Hits: No save situation but the Orioles went with Tommy Hunter and Andrew Miller in the seventh and eighth innings tonight, a trend that should continue in Baltimore. Francisco Rodriguez closed his 33rd door of the year. K-Rod’s had a fine year but he was actually quite terrible in July, posting a 6.48 ERA and .381 wOBA against. He’s earned enough leash where he will save games all year but I wouldn’t look to at his seasonal ERA and expect an ERA around or under 3.00 from here on out.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

• We talked about Neil Ramirez a bit last night, and although it seemed like he was just going to rest without any injury he was just put on the 15-day DL today. Ramirez has a sore right triceps muscle and he hopefully is back soon for the Cubs. The interesting piece in all of this is that the Cubs apparently really did just want Ramirez to rest but sending someone to the minors for that reason “could be viewed as an attempt to save on a major league salary.”

• Neftali Feliz recorded a save late last night, his second of the season. The good news is that it looks like Feliz is taking the reigns on the closing gig in Texas. The bad news is all of our previous concerns about Feliz and his injury haven’t quite evaporated. Feliz made his bread throwing in the high 90s, but he was maxing out at 93 mph last night.  That’s enough to be a successful major league pitcher, and if he’s getting saves Feliz will have value but it goes without say that a lot of his shine has worn off, and anyone expecting Feliz to return to the Feliz when he first came on the seen will be disappointed.

Read the rest of this entry »