Archive for Catchers

Waiver Wire: September 14th

The summer is winding down, but your fantasy team still needs furious updating for the final push, so don’t neglect it. Here is a duo of players, one for shallower leagues, and one for deeper leagues.

David Murphy, Rangers (17% owned)
Murphy has started 34 of the Rangers last 37 games, so the idea that he’s primarily a bench player seems outdated. Of course, he’s been getting more time with Josh Hamilton on the schneid with rib issues, but as this Rangers juggernaut rolls into the final couple weeks of the season, they’ll only have more incentive to rest their studs and get Murphy into the lineup. Murphy took a nice step forward this year, as he held on to the gains he made at the plate last year (9.9% walk rate last year, 9.7% this year, 8.7% career) while reducing the strikeouts from a career-worst level last year (18.3% this year, 24.5% last year, 19.9% career). Unfortunately, his ISO took a hit once he stopped swinging so hard (.144 ISO this year, .175 career) – and it’s a little surprising to see ZiPs RoS predict that the ISO will drop even further (.118 ZiPs RoS ISO). Here’s a bet that he can keep his ISO around league average going forward, which will make him playable with the better batting average that goes with the reduced strikeout rate. Murphy is also working on a career high in stolen bases (12) and since he’s only been caught once, it seems that the opportunistic thievery can continue. If you need a little bit of everything right now, Murphy could be your man.

Brayan Pena
, Royals (2% owned)
Back on August thirteenth, I mentioned in a post about Ned Yost that the Royals manager was going to play his backup catcher more often. More often at first meant that Pena would start a couple games and rest a couple games, but then Jason Kendall got hurt and he’s been playing almost every day since. He’s under team control for a couple of years still, so it behooves the team to give him the at-bats to see what he can do. His wRC+ values over the last two years (96 and 92) don’t seem to suggest he’s a great sleeper for fantasy leagues, but it’s a tough position and players like Chris Snyder (owner of a similar wRC+ this year) have been owned periodically in many leagues. He’s worth a look. His walk rate right now (8.7%) is a little high given his minor league number (6.9%), but so is his strikeout rate (16.2% this year, 13.2% career, 10.1% minors). He could make a little more contact and keep a similar line. He won’t have much power (.100 minor league ISO), but his current line is sustainable – and he’s hot, hitting .421 over his past two weeks. He’s a borderline guy in the deepest of leagues, but he could help the right team.


Posey’s Reasonable August

The baseball world went gaga for Buster Posey after he was called up to the bigs and destroyed major league pitchers during the month of July, immediately after the Giants decided to deal Bengie Molina and play Posey everyday.

While players can have big months, Posey’s July was completely off the heezy. Not so much because of his .424 BABIP and .417 batting average, but because he hit seven homers, and another seven extra base hits. His wOBA for July? A whopping .487, with a 210 wRC+. Crazy, to say the least. There was no reason to think he’d produce at a level anywhere near his July, so seeing what he could do when his numbers stabilized was going to be crucial to estimating his value.

Even when he cooled down, his numbers from August weren’t shabby. He hit two jacks and nine doubles, kept his strikeout rate at a reasonable level, and continued to smoke like drives. You really couldn’t have asked from much more from a rookie catcher, but I’d bet some owners were disappointed.

Posey’s August was much more indicative of what we’ll see from him next year. Although, when you compare it to July, almost anything would have been. If you look closer, you can see that August was very reasonable and looks right, regardless of what you want to compare it to. His strikeout and walk rates were close to what should be expected, his BABIP (.318) was too, and he didn’t have an explosion of power.

It’s time to evaluate your keepers, so what should you predict for Posey next year? I’m thinking he’ll hit 17 homers with a batting average around .295, which is pretty darn good for a catcher. Odds are he’ll be overvalued next year thanks to his explosive July, but he needs to be valued based off his more reasonable August.


Catchers: September 6th

A holiday edition of “Catchers,” coming to you in three…two…one.

Ryan Hanigan | Reds | 2% Owned
Hanigan is a favorite of mine, and like Chris Iannetta, he just needs to receive added playing time to be a viable option. Hanigan walks more than strikes out, hits line drives and can hit the ball out of the park enough to make him a fantastic catcher. If I can go off script for a moment and discuss real life baseball (gasp!), there is no way Hanigan should be riding the bench. The Reds are splitting starts behind the dish right down the middle (pun intended), so Hanigan is a nice guy to have if you have room for a second catcher, or are willing to take reduced production and lowered risk.

Yadier Molina | Cardinals | 60% Owned
The BABIP Gods shined favorably on Molina during August, allowing him to produce a monster .329 average at the dish. While there’s no reason to believe he can do it again, Molina was going to get some good luck eventually. However, outside of July, his line drive rates haven’t been anything special, leading to a sub-par season at the dish. He’s capable of hitting .275 in September, which is just high enough for a roster spot. During the last month of my season, I’d rather have a catcher with more upside than Molina. I usually hype players up, but Yadier should not be owned in 50% of leagues, let alone 60%.

A.J. Pierzynski | White Sox | 29% Owned
Guess who hit less than 13% line drives with a .346 BABIP in August? Pierzynski, that’s who! Besides cutting down on the strikeouts and the occasional dinger, Pierzynski hasn’t been productive at the plate this year. He’s not going to be sought after during free agency, but someone will take a chance on him this offseason. There’s no use owning him at this point, so don’t pay him any mind.


Mets Turn To Thole

Last weekend the Mets dumped Rod Barajas, their starting catcher for basically the entire season, on the Dodgers when they claimed him off waivers. They saved themselves a little more than $100,000 over the rest of the season with the move. Barajas quickly endeared himself to the Dodger faithful, going 3-for-4 with a pair of doubles and a homer in his first game with the club. Of course, he owns a .283 career OBP (.274 this year) and by all accounts is an atrocious offensive player, but he certainly started his Dodger career off on the right foot.

For the Mets, the deal wasn’t so much about saving that extra $100,000 as it was opening a full-time spot for 23-year-old Josh Thole. A half-dozen or so games out of the playoff spot, it was time for the Mets to see what they had in Thole and whether or not he could be part of their future.

Baseball America ranked Thole as the team’s eighth best prospect before the season, saying he “essentially takes a two-strike approach on all counts, choking up on the bat to punch line drives to both gaps. He hits for average and is difficult to strike out.” They also acknowledged his lack of power and some throwing deficiencies, but the latter doesn’t matter in fantasy. They project him as more of a platoon player long-term than as an everyday backstop, but for now the Mets are going to run him out there and hope he impresses. Hard to blame them, really.

Before Barajas was jettisoned, Thole performed admirably in spot duty, hitting .289/.361/.351 in 108 plate appearances. Before that he had hit .261/.347/.424 in just shy of 200 plate appearances with Triple-A Buffalo, and last year he went .321/.356/.396 in a September call-up. The power numbers are obviously nothing to write home about (.092 ISO in over 1,700 minor league plate appearances), but his approach and contact skills have allowed him to walk (209) more than he’s struck out (206) in his career, and I’m a sucker for guys that can do that.

Overall, Thole is hitting .303/.377/.367 as a big leaguer this season, exceptionally good AVG (and OBP) for a catcher. The counting stats aren’t there – he has just one homer, nine RBI, and six runs scored in over 120 plate appearances – but with the position so devoid of offensive production, getting help in the rate stats is a pretty big coup at this time of year. The long-term production probably won’t be anything special, but if you’re desperate for catching help, there are worse options than riding Thole’s BABIP-fueled batting average the rest of the way.


Catchers: August 16th

With my batteries recharged after a “vacation,” here are some catcher notes to start your week.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Red Sox | 1% Owned

Seeing Salty in a Red Sox uniform just feels right, doesn’t it? While he hasn’t shown a ton of promise since his big time Triple-A performance in 2008, the Red Sox are going to give him a chance to prove himself in minimal action the rest of the year. He’s still only 25, and he did hit 11 homers in 270 Triple-A plate appearances this year with the Rangers. He didn’t transition into the Red Sox system well, but his 23 trips to the plate don’t deter me. He has a career line drive rate of 21.2%, and a league average walk rate, but he needs to cut back on his strikeouts by around 10%. If Salty can show some progress in the bigs, the Red Sox may decide he’s ready for a bigger role next year if Victor Martinez walks in free agency. If you have a big bench in a keeper league, he might be worth stashing.

Ryan Doumit | Pirates | 40% Owned

When the Pirates acquired Chris Snyder, it seemed like Doumit would be moving to right field full time. Since returning from the DL, he has played in five games, manning right field only once. It appears that the Pirates were intent on giving Jeff Clement another chance to prove himself at first base, and that threw a wrench into Snyder’s playing time behind the dish, and Doumit’s playing time elsewhere. Now that the Pirates have tired of Clement, Doumit should move over to RF with Garrett Jones taking over at first base. A move away from the plate should improve Doumit’s offensive numbers, and he’ll still be catcher eligible next year. While he isn’t a great keeper, he’s still worth a spot on your roster for the rest of the season.


Salty, Snyder Switch Teams

The Boston Red Sox acquired C Jarrod Saltalamacchia from the Texas Rangers for 1B Chris McGuiness, RHP Roman Mendez, a player to be named later and cash.

Remember when Saltalamacchia was the key prospect acquired by the Rangers in the July 2007 Mark Teixeira trade that also netted Elvis Andrus and Neftali Feliz? Now, the switch-hitter’s future is murky following injury issues and problems throwing the ball back to the pitcher, a la Rube Baker in Major League II.

Salty has struggled in the majors to this point, batting .251/.313/.388 in 874 PA. His wOBA is .306, and his wRC+ is 82. While the 25-year-old hasn’t been a total hacker, his 8.1% walk rate is a bit below the big league average, and he has punched out 31.1% of the time. The 6-4, 235 pound specimen hasn’t pounded the ball, either, with a .137 Isolated Power. Behind the dish, Sean Smith’s Total Zone pegs him as five runs below average per 1,200 innings. Salty missed time in 2008 with a forearm strain, and then he had to undergo right shoulder surgery in 2009 for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. This spring, he battled a back injury.

At Triple-A Oklahoma City this season, Salty had a .244/.326/.445 line in 270 PA. He’s walked 9.3% of the time, punched out 25.2% and posted a .201 ISO. While it’s hard to evaluate this trade without knowing the significance of the PTBNL, Saltalamacchia looks like a worthwhile reclamation project for Boston. He’s still relatively young and he’s under team control for several years to come, which makes him a possible alternative to pending free agent Victor Martinez.

Salty’s fantasy value is nil for the rest of the season. His bat no longer looks special, and he must prove durable while not embarrassing himself defensively. Don’t totally write him off, though. The offensive bar is set low for backstops (.251/.324/.383 MLB average), and he’s got enough offensive ability to clear that mark if he can avoid face-planting in the other aspects of catching.

The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired C Chris Snyder, SS Pedro Ciriaco and cash from the Arizona Diamondbacks for SS Bobby Crosby, RHP D.J. Carrasco and RF Ryan Church.

Pittsburgh picked up Snyder in what amounts to an Arizona salary dump — the only semi-useful item the D-Backs got back was Carrasco, a middle reliever non-tendered by the White Sox last winter. Snyder, 29, will make $5.75 million in 2011, and he’s got a $6.75 million club option for 2012 ($750,000 buyout). Arizona sent $3 million to the ‘Burgh as part of the trade.

With the Pirates, Snyder will take over as the starting catcher. Ryan Doumit, due off the DL soon, will only catch occasionally while getting re-acclimated to first base and the corner outfield. ZiPS doesn’t see a huge difference between the two from an offensive standpoint (.339 rest-of-season wOBA for Snyder, .333 for Doumit). This is a quality move for the Bucs, however, given the modest financial investment involved and the spare parts surrendered in the trade. Snyder’s not known as a defensive stalwart and his 2009 season was marred by a back ailment, but Doumit’s injury history is even more checkered — he tore his left hamstring in 2006, sprained his left wrist and ankle in 2007, fractured his left thumb in 2008, suffered a right wrist injury that required surgery in 2009 and has dealt with concussion-like symptoms in 2010.

Snyder’s owned in just five percent of Yahoo leagues right now. He’s got solid secondary skills for a catcher, and ZiPS projects him to bat .240/.345/.417 for the rest of the year. You could do worse if you need some help behind the plate.


Catchers: July 26th

Thoughts on some catchers to start your day.

Chris Iannetta | Rockies | 4% Owned

A FanGraphs favorite, Iannetta has proven that with steady playing time comes production. But, Jim Tracy doesn’t care and prefers playing the inferior Miguel Olivo behind the dish most days. He is drawing interest from teams such as the Red Sox, but it looks like the Rockies may hold onto him as they continue to push for the playoffs. Make sure Iannetta is on your watch list, and be ready to pounce if something happens to Olivo (you didn’t hear it from me, but by the time you are reading this, he’ll have a broken leg).

Adam Moore | Mariners | 0% Owned

Even though his MLB stints have been brief, he has struggled mightily during his time in Seattle. He hit the DL earlier this year and has been playing in Tacoma (AAA) ever since. He’s hitting .303/.345/.404 in Tacoma, which is similar to the Triple-A line he put up last year. He’s already 26, so there is no better time than the present to bring Moore back to the majors. Moore should be relevant in deep keeper leagues, and should be kept an eye on in AL-only leagues, both redraft and keeper.

Ronny Paulino | Marlins | 12% Owned

Paulino has slipped under the radar this year due to his lack of name recognition, but he’s been a great low-risk option behind the plate. He won’t hit for much power or drive in a ton of runs, but his .274 batting average makes him an asset for some owners. If you are looking for a catcher who simply won’t hurt you, don’t be afraid to pick up Paulino.

John Jaso | Rays | 5% Owned

Jaso has gotten a good amount of attention in the saber-sphere due to his line drive and walk rates, but it hasn’t translated into fantasy owners picking him up. He has had some problems with BABIP during June and July, but that comes with the territory of being a platoon player (lower sample size). He’s a good buy in OBP leagues, but you could probably find a better option if you use AVG.


Waiver Wire: July 21st

Erik Kratz, Pirates (Owned in 0% of Yahoo leagues)

With Ryan Doumit looking lost behind the plate and the since-demoted Jason Jaramillo trotting down the first base line less often than Jalapeno Hannah, the Pirates decided to call up the 30-year-old Kratz.

A monster of a man at 6-foot-4 and 255 pounds, Kratz is a former 29th-round pick from the Toronto Blue Jays’ organization who latched on with the Pirates as a minor league free agent prior to the 2009 season. The right-handed hitter posted a .273/.337/.470 line in 353 Triple-A PA last season, and he batted .296/.396/.550 in 225 trips to the plate in 2010 before getting the big league promotion.

It’s hard to say how much the organizational soldier will play, but he’s expected to garner more starts than Jaramillo did and caddy for the switch-hitting Doumit against lefties. During his career, Doumit has a .342 wOBA as a lefty versus RHP and a .309 wOBA against left-handers as a RHB. Using the method outlined here for estimating platoon skill, I get a .346 estimated wOBA for Doumit vs. RHP and a .322 estimated wOBA against lefties. Can Kratz match that? Overall, CHONE projects Kratz as a slightly below-average MLB hitter (.253/.318/.443, roughly a .322 wOBA). Assuming he shows a typical platoon split for a RHB (better against LHP), Kratz should be a bit of an upgrade over Doumit against lefties.

Depending upon the Pirates’ level of disgust in Doumit’s D, Kratz could get penciled into the lineup more frequently. He’s got some power, and that could make him an option in NL-only leagues.

Drew Stubbs, Reds (34%)

Cincy’s first-round pick in the 2006 draft is easing concerns that his bat won’t play well at the big league level. A 6-4, 205 pound center fielder known for wheels allowing him to cover lots of ground and swipe bases at a high percentage clip (77.1% in the minors), Stubbs never really stand out at the plate as a prospect. He hit a collective .269/.364/.401 in 1,847 plate appearances, with a good eye (11.9 BB%) but little in the way of pop (.132 ISO). Stubbs also whiffed 27.3% of the time, raising questions about his contact ability.

The former Longhorn’s defensive chops figured to make him an acceptable starter even if his offense was below-average, but happily, he’s holding his own with the lumber. In 546 major league PA over the past two years, Stubbs has a .257/.322/.434 line and a .337 wOBA. Sure, he’s coming up empty more than most — his contact rate is 73.4% (81% MLB average) and his K rate is 29.3% — but that hasn’t precluded him from succeeding. Stubbs has walked an acceptable 8.4% of the time, and he’s hitting with the authority that once led Baseball America to claim he possessed “plus raw power.” Stubbs has a .177 ISO in the majors, with 21 homers. He’s also contributing plenty on the base paths. After going 10-for-14 in SB attempts last season, Stubbs has been successful in 18 of 21 tries in 2010.

Given Stubbs’ mild numbers in the minors, both ZiPS (.240/.311/.378 rest-of-season projection) and CHONE (.246/.323/.379) are skeptical that the 25-year-old can keep up the pace. Personally, I think he’s capable of hitting at a level closer to his current mark. He’s not a hacker, he’s tapping into his power potential and he’s taking his home swings in a park that increases HR production by 35 percent for righty batters.


Catchers: July 19th

This edition of catcher notes focuses on three young backstops who could help your team now, and in the future.

Carlos Santana | Indians | 64% owned

Santana had huge expectations hoisted on his shoulders when he was called up, and he has exceeded them. Mark my words: Carlos Santana will be the best fantasy catcher for the rest of the year. Seriously, I’d be willing to put money (er, gummy bears) on it. Since he only owned in 64% of leagues, it’s worth your time to check the waiver wire and add him if he’s available.

Matt Wieters | Orioles | 66% owned

One of the most hyped catchers on draft day has been a major disappointment, but there is still hope. In the past 30 days, Wieters has hit .304 while driving in 11 runs. Keep in mind, during the past 30 days, Wieters has missed time due to injury and the All-Star break, so his sample size is small. Still, you can color me optimistic. He has a great offensive pedigree, and when he returns to the bigs when his DL stint is up at the end of the month, I expect great things. I’ve seen him dropped in some leagues (even a keeper league), so he could be a good buy-low guy if you are looking to build for the future.

Jonathan Lucroy | Brewers | 1% owned

The Brewers “catcher of the future,” Lucroy has hit well in his first big league season. Lucroy wasn’t supposed to see a lot of time in the majors this year, but Gregg Zaun’s injury opened up playing time for the youngster. Marc Hulet rated Lucroy as the Brewers 5th best prospect coming into the year, noting his offensive reputation. Lucroy is hitting .280/.316/.376 right now, so he isn’t a good value in OBP or OPS leagues, but could deserve a pickup in keeper and NL-only leagues. He won’t play every day, but he plays enough to justify a roster spot.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.


Superman Hits the DL

A sour season for Matt Wieters owners got even more frustrating on Friday, as the switch-hitting would-be savior was placed on the DL (retroactive to July 10th) with a strained right hamstring. Wieters has been battling the bad hammy since tripping while rounding second base during a July 9th game against the Texas Rangers.

The fifth overall pick in the ’07 draft laid waste to minor league pitching in 2008 (a combined .355/.454/.600 between High-A and Double-A) and 2009 (.305/.387/.504 in Triple-A) before the O’s called him up last May. Wieters turned in a very impressive rookie season — while not reaching the hyperbolic expectations set by some, he hit .288/.340/.412 with a .331 wOBA in 385 plate appearances. League-average offense from 23-year-old backstop in the AL East is nothing to scoff at.

Wieters was supposed to take several steps forward in 2010, with both ZiPS (.282/.346/.427, .342 wOBA) and CHONE (.289/.355/.460, .356 wOBA) predicting improvement at the plate. Instead, the former Georgia Tech star has stung those who used a prime draft pick on him — Wieters holds a sluggish .245/.315/.357 line in 298 PA, with a .298 wOBA.

While Baseball America lauded the 6-5, 230 pound Wieters’ 30-homer potential, that pop has not yet been on display in the majors. He had a .124 ISO last season, and that mark has fallen slightly in 2010, to .112. For comparison, ZiPS projected a .145 ISO and CHONE had a .171 ISO.

Part of the problem is an increase in ground balls hit. Wieters hit grounders 41.9% in 2009, and that ground ball rate has climbed to 46.4% this year. It also doesn’t help that the quality of pitches that he’s swinging at has declined. Here are Wieters’ swing rates on pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (O-Swing) and within the zone (Z-Swing) in 2009 and 2010. I also included Wieters’ O-Swing and Z-Swing rates as a proportion of the MLB average:

Wieters is chasing a slightly higher percentage of pitches thrown off the plate (relative to the MLB average), but the big change is his swing rate on pitches over the plate. He’s taking more offerings thrown within the zone, which has contributed to his getting behind in the count more often. Wieters’ first pitch strike percentage was 53 last season, but it has climbed to 60.7% in 2010 (58-59% MLB average). According to StatCorner, Wieters took a pitch for a strike 29.5% of the time in ’09. This year, he’s taking a pitch for a strike 33.8% (31% MLB average).

Our Pitch Type Run Values suggest that Wieters is struggling on a per-pitch basis against fastballs — his runs/100 value against the heat is -0.49 this season, compared to +0.71 in 2009. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Wieters swung at 45.8% of fastballs seen in ’09, and 41.3% in 2010. When Wieters got a fastball on the first pitch of an at-bat in 2009, his strike percentage was 54.4. This season, he’s got a 62.2 strike% when a pitcher throws him a fastball to begin an AB. It seems as though he’s having a hard time distinguishing balls from strikes against the gas.

Despite his struggles, Wieters is still one of the most valuable properties in the game. ZiPS has a .274/.343/.407 rest-of-season projection for him, and CHONE predicts a .276/.341/.431 line. Even if the power doesn’t manifest when he returns, Wieters isn’t a sub-.250 hitter. His .317 expected BABIP is 26 points higher than his actual .291 BABIP.

I can’t stress this enough — please, please do not trade this guy for fifty cents on the dollar right now. That goes ten-fold for keeper leagues — you’ll be kicking yourself later if you let the aggravation caused by Wieters’ tepid 2010 overshadow his superb track record and prospect pedigree.