There wasn’t a large amount happening in the “closer world” yesterday, but let’s take a look at some appearances.

Zach Britton converted his first save of the season in the Orioles 7-5 victory over the Braves on Saturday. It took him 17 pitches to complete his scoreless frame. He yielded a walk, but was able to force two ground-outs and one strikeout. Brad Brach did not make an appearance, as he had pitched in two-of-the-last-three games overall. Mychal Givens was able to secure his 10th hold of the season, but he needed 30 pitches to get through the inning. The main focus here is on Britton, who’s managed to post scoreless outings in five-of-six appearance this season (4 ER in the lone blemish). He’s accrued a 60% GB – his calling card – to go along with a 6/5 K:BB ratio. The walks are obviously concerning, but three of them came in his first appearance. I’ve swapped him into the Orioles closer role on the spreadsheet and I don’t believe he’ll relinquish that spot unless the Orioles trade him (definitely a possibility). The best thing to do moving forward is monitor the usage behind Britton. As of now, Brach continues to be the likely fill-in if/when a Britton move occurs.

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Arizona did not deploy Brad Boxberger until the 11th inning for a save opportunity, but Boxberger failed to convert it for the second straight outing. Boxberger allowed an unearned run to score but it’s the three walks which raises eyebrows, not the end result. Leadoff walks never end well for closers and Boxberger started the inning with one to Gregory Polanco. Then he handed out a free pass to Josh Bell along with an intentional walk to Austin Meadows after a sacrifice bunt to load the bases. Had Jake Lamb made a better throw to home, perhaps it’s a moot point, but Boxberger’s walked five over his last six innings giving up three home runs and six earned runs in these appearances. As a result, Boxberger’s walk percentage has risen to 12.1 percent and his WHIP to an uncomfortable 1.37 through 26.1 innings.

It’s important to note, Boxberger’s only thrown 27.2 innings total across all levels in 2016 and 37 innings last year due to injuries. Fatigue could be a factor as the All-Star break looms. Arizona will let him continue in the role not wishing to increase arbitration to Archie Bradley, but in the midst of a pennant chase in the wide open National League West may eventually force their hand. Bradley’s only yielded one earned run in 10.1 innings in June despite his 4:4 K:BB in them. Yoshihisa Hirano‘s on a 21 game (18.1 inning) scoreless streak but mostly works in the seventh inning as a setup pitcher. Andrew Chafin’s also pitching well tossing 23 scoreless outings of his last 25 giving up only two earned runs his last 17.1 innings (1.04 ERA). Whether or not the Diamondbacks make a change remains to be seen, but Boxberger’s officially under watch as innings accrue. If the walks and home runs persist, he could be on the outside looking in for save chances in July. Read the rest of this entry »

Although Bruce Bochy listed Sam Dyson and Tony Watson as his “primary options” to close with Hunter Strickland headed to the disabled list, could Mark Melancon work his way into at least a time share? While it’s not out of the realm of possibilities, keep in mind Dyson worked the three previous games prior to last night so he received a much needed day off. Melancon stepped in to record his first save, one year and one day since his last one before missing the majority of last season. For one night, San Francisco’s blueprint went exactly as planned with Madison Bumgarner firing eight shutout innings and Melancon locking down the save. Read the rest of this entry »

Life is coming at the Giants’ bullpen fast. On Monday, Hunter Strickland blew a save against the Marlins and punched out a door. On Tuesday, Strickland had surgery and Sam Dyson was named the new closer. That night, Dyson notched a save, and then on Wednesday afternoon, he came perilously close to blowing a save.

The Giants gave Dyson a three-run cushion in their series finale with Miami, but the Marlins shaved a run off the lead when Starlin Castro brought Miguel Rojas home with a one-out sacrifice fly. Dyson was one strike away from recording his second save in two days, but then Brian Anderson smacked an 0-2 two-seamer into right field for an RBI single. After J.T. Realmuto singled on Dyson’s very next pitch, Bruce Bochy called for Reyes Moronta to get out of the jam. In striking out J.B. Shuck on four pitches, Moronta got credit for his first career save.
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Among yesterday’s developments, I was pretty certain nothing was going to top the Cubs losing their closer due to an injury sustained while taking his pants off. I was wrong.

After blowing a save against the Marlins on Monday night, Hunter Strickland then lost a fight with a door. The Giants’ closer punched said door and broke his right hand. He underwent surgery on his right pinky finger on Tuesday and is expected to be out for six-to-eight weeks. Bruce Bochy wasted little time in anointing Sam Dyson as his new primary closer, and promptly used him to nail down a save against the Marlins on Tuesday night. With Tony Watson apparently off after pitching on consecutive days, Will Smith pitched the eighth inning and stayed in to begin the ninth with lefties J.B. Shuck and Derek Dietrich due up, but after walking pinch hitter Yadiel Rivera and striking out Dietrich, he gave way to Dyson. The sinkerballer, who happens to have a 64.8 percent ground ball rate, got Brian Anderson to hit into a game-ending double play.
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• Instead of waiting until the deadline to improve their bullpen, the Nationals went out and got Kelvin Herrera from the Royals for three minor leaguers. While Herrera was the closer for the Royals (and pitching quite well) he will likely be a setup man in Washington. However, with the lefty Sean Doolittle and now Herrera the Nationals could have a two-headed closing monster as they work towards October. Ryan Madson, Brandon Kintzler (when he’s back from injury), and the recently  dominant Justin Miller should all help as well in the setup innings.

As far as Kansas City’s new closer is concerned, the  names to consider are Kevin McCarthy, Brandon Maurer, Jason Adam,  Tim Hill, and Justin Grimm. In no particular order, let’s go through the options with a few indicators:

• Kevin McCarthy: 30.1 innings pitched, 3.86/3.49/3.38/3.31 ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA, 15.7 K%, 5.8 BB%, previously used in the 10th, 7th, and 7th innings. Saved games in the minors.
• Brandon Maurer: Only 5.1 innings pitched, 13.5/12.65/5.96/4.77 ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA, 17.9 K%, 10.7 BB%, previously used in the 8th and 8th innings. Closing at AAA this year and the previous two years in San Diego
• Jason Adam: 15.1 innings pitched, 4.70/7.26/4.73/3.53 ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA, 25.0 K%, 6.3 BB%, previously used in the 9th on 6/13. No closing experience.
• Tim Hill: 21.1 innings pitched, 4.89/2.81/3.19/3.08, ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA, 24.2 K%, 8.4 BB%, previously used in the 8th/9th, 6th, and 8th. Saved games in the minors.
• Justin Grimm: 9.2 innings pitched, 16.76/7.44/7.10/6.57 ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA, 13.7 K%, 19.6 BB%, previously used in the 7th, and 8th/9th.

Based on previous experience, Brandon Maurer would be the leading candidate for saves. Looking at production this year, Kevin McCarthy would be the likely candidate. But if one looked at strikeouts and a mixture of the other indicators, Jason Adam and Tim Hill could be in line as well which leads to a total free for all/committee until we see how it plays out.

If I had to rank them I would go McCarthy, Mauerer, Hill, Adam, Grimm but I don’t have much confidence in either that rank or anyone being a particularly good closer moving forward. The Royals are likely to get worse with additional trades so there won’t be too many save opportunities and none of the relievers mentioned, at least at this time, look like potential ace relievers either.

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Wade Davis has been among the wildest relievers of 2018, but for the first two months of the season, it scarcely seemed to matter. He rolled into June having blown only two of his 20 save opportunities, and he sported a 2.35 ERA. Even at Coors Field, Davis had overcome his wildness, holding opponents to a .276 wOBA with only two extra-base hits (one homer and one double) allowed over 9.2 innings.

The Rockies’ closer has been largely successful, despite a 33.6 percent Zone% that is the second-lowest among qualified relievers, because he has been extremely stingy with hard contact over most of the season. Through May 31, Davis was allowing an average exit velocity of just 88.4 mph on flyballs and line drives (per Baseball Savant). Since then, that average is sitting at 94.4 mph.
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In the nine days since Jeurys Familia was shelved with a sore right shoulder, the Mets have had just one save situation. They did not have one on Saturday against the Diamondbacks, but in holding a 5-1 lead over the final three innings, they were close to having one. Mickey Callaway went with the same late-inning combination that he used in the save situation against the Yankees on June 1o: Robert Gsellman providing the bridge from the starter in the seventh and eighth innings to Anthony Swarzak in the ninth.

Both pitchers performed admirably in Familia’s absence, but they are now expected to return to their prior roles, as the Mets are planning on activating their closer on Sunday. Familia is expected to move immediately back into the closer’s role.
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For the skills over role consensu, Kyle Barraclough continues to thrive as the closer for the Marlins in spite of starting the season as the primary setup reliever. Barraclough notched his fifth save firing a clean ninth inning with two strikeouts in his fourth outing over the last five days. He’s yielded no runs his last 16 games spanning 15.2 innings and only allowed one hit in these appearances. During the season, Barraclough’s not given up a hit in 25 of his 32 outings and been scoreless in 28 of them. Although he’s battled control issues in the past, Barraclough’s 1.15 ERA and 0.80 WHIP suggest he’s settling into the role quite well. Just plan on Miami giving him a day off on Saturday if possible to keep him healthy going forward.

It feels like one step forward and two steps back with Felipe Vazquez this season. He did record his 13th save allowing a hit but striking out two, including Joey Votto, to secure a win for the Pirates on Friday night. On the surface, Vazquez has blown four of his last eight save chances with an ERA of 4.55 yet a FIP of 2.87, so which number should fantasy owners focus on? Vazquez has cut down his hard hit percentage allowed by 5.6 points. However, he’s traded ground balls for line drives. His underlying discipline statistics do not display complete erosion of his skills as his swinging strike percentage approaches his 2016 numbers, but owners drafted Vazquez for the upside he displayed in the first half of last year. Over the last 14 days, Vazquez has worked 5.1 innings with nine strikeouts against five walks with a 3.38 ERA and 2.53 FIP. Almost a encapsulation of his season so far with hints of upside paired with the high amount of walks. Perhaps he can turn this around like Kenley Jansen did in April, but it’s not for the risk averse. Read the rest of this entry »

For the second time in less than 24 hours, the Marlins helped themselves with a sacrifice fly off Hunter Strickland. On Wednesday night, it was Brian Anderson’s deep fly to center field that brought in Miguel Rojas to score the winning run in the bottom of the ninth inning. Then on Thursday, Strickland was brought in with a one-run lead in the ninth inning. Three batters into the frame, he engaged in a nine-pitch battle with Lewis Brinson that concluded with a flyball to the warning track. That drive scored Starlin Castro and tied the game up. In fairness to Strickland, Castro had reached on a Joe Panik error, and the night before, he had inherited two runners from Reyes Moronta.

With Mark Melancon back, it may seem like Strickland has less margin for error, but the Giants’ former closer is far from the most immediate threat to the incumbent’s job security. Tony Watson has been spectacular lately, not allowing a run over his last 8.1 innings while striking out 13 batters and yielding only a single and a walk. Sam Dyson stumbled a bit in the Marlins series, allowing three runs (two earned) in 1.1 innings, but prior to that, he had allowed one run over a 13.1-inning span with 17 strikeouts and four walks.
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