There’s been no official word, but recent performance indicates Cody Allen could benefit from a couple of lower leverage outings. Allen’s allowed at least a run in his last four appearances spiking his ERA to 6.14 and his xFIP to 7.01. He’s cratered in terms of ground ball rate, 19 percent this season, while his hard hit percentage sits at 47.6 percent. On Monday night, Hansel Robles worked the ninth inning in a tied game at home, usually a spot reserved for a team’s closer. Robles responded by striking out the side, one day removed from working at the opener. Read the rest of this entry »

By now, we have all become aware of the home run explosion that’s occurred in the early weeks and the appearance of a juiced ball. High-leverage relievers have not been immune to the deluge of dingers. Josh Hader, Matt Barnes and Kenley Jansen all allowed home runs on Sunday that led to a loss or a blown save. The three normally-reliable relievers have teamed up to allow seven home runs over their last 8.1 innings combined. Hader has allowed homers in each of his last three appearances, Barnes has allowed one in each of his last two outings, and Jansen has given up two homers over his last three appearances.

Despite the rash of long balls, it’s far too soon to be concerned about any of the three. Hader is still missing bats at a stratospheric rate, sporting a 22.8 percent SwStr%. However, his flyball rate of 72.2 percent is even more otherworldly. It’s nearly double the major league average of 36.7 percent. Not only is Hader letting the ball get lofted, but hitters are making a lot of hard contact on those airborne balls, averaging 97.4 mph in exit velocity (per Baseball Savant). As he accumulates more innings, this could become a real problem barring some serious regression, even with his healthy whiff rate.
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Apologies on a belated and brief Bullpen Report but let’s get to the main takeaways from yesterday and a tad from today…

• It wasn’t so long ago that it felt like Blake Parker was making Minnesota a non-committee but last night Taylor Rogers threw a two-inning save in the first leg of  a doubleheader and then recorded his 3rd save of the year in today’s outing. Rogers struck out five yesterday but struggle a tad in today’s save, allowing three baserunners and a run. The Trevors May and Hildenberger set up today’s game in the 7th and 8th respectively and Blake Parker wasn’t used in any of the games. Yesterday we were told he was under the weather so that could explain his absence but Rogers and Hildenberger have also been more effective than him this year. This is still a committee with Parker at the top but his margin for error is certainly small.

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In a game replete with bullpen implications, the Mariners rallied for a win over the Angels on the road. Cody Allen allowed at least a run in his third straight outing serving up back-to-back home runs to Tim Beckham and Omar Narvaez, then walking Ryon Healy before being lifted without recording an out. Allen moves to red alert in fantasy with FAAB bids looming. Many will suggest stashing Ty Buttrey. However, over his last four appearances, Buttrey’s worked in the fifth inning twice, the sixth and the seventh.

It could be a bumpy ride, but Hansel Robles represents the arm with the most likely chance to pitch the ninth if Allen needs a day or two off from the role. Robles worked around a walk last night and owns a 22.5 strikeouts minus walks percentage. But, his 4.66 xFIP could work against him. Taking the long view does not sit well with fantasy owners seeking immediate return on investment. Given Allen’s 4.91 ERA, 6.24 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP added to his 65 percent fly ball rate and 45 hard hit percentage against, he should be benched until further notice. Robles, who pitched the eighth inning in his last three outings, could be in the mix. But, stashing Buttrey, if he’s on the waiver wire, seems like the most savvy move going forward.

Even with the Angels meltdown, Seattle also provided some intrigue. Anthony Swarzak received the night off after working the two previous days. He threw 29 pitches on Thursday and 14 on Wednesday, so Roenis Elias recorded his fourth save in a scoreless ninth yielding a pinch hit single to Kevan Smith. It’s not a situation where Swarzak’s job could be in jeopardy, but Elias remains relevant due to his ability to work more efficiently and well in high leverage to start the year. Keep in mind, Elias pitched the last two days, so he could get Saturday off with Swarzak back in the saddle if a save chance presents itself.

Another fluid bullpen exists in Boston. Matt Barnes notched his third hold striking out two in the eighth inning in Tampa Bay. He faced the heart of the order retiring the third, fourth and fifth batters in the lineup. Again, Barnes represents the highest leverage pitcher in the Red Sox bullpen, which translates to him not working exclusively in the ninth inning. Ryan Brasier did hit a batter and struck out one for his fourth save. Both arms will provide fantasy returns, but predicting which one gets the save depends on how the game evolves. Plan accordingly.

Saves stashers turned their eyes upon Nick Anderson in recent days. And, yes, he could eventually take over the ninth in Miami. Anderson did strike out the side in the seventh inning en route to his first hold of 2019. He also allowed a home run to Brian Dozier in the process. Adam Conley and Drew Steckenrider shared the eighth inning with each garnering a hold bridging to Sergio Romo in the ninth. Romo notched his second save with a clean ninth and a strikeout. Due to the limited save volume, it’s tough to roster Marlins relievers in shallow formats. Use the blueprint above when assigning value and view Anderson as a stash, not an immediate add for save upside.

A rare blowup by Josh Hader led to a Dodgers win on the road. Hader retired Cody Bellinger on a strikeout to end the seventh inning of a tied game. Returning to the mound in the eighth, Hader walked A.J. Pollock to start the inning, never a good thing, then struck out Max Muncy. David Freese entered as a pitch hitter and also drew a walk. Hader bounced back striking out Austin Barnes before coughing up a three-run home run to Enrique Hernandez. Making Hader throw more pitches than he’s accustomed to benefited Los Angeles. Kenley Jansen fired a clean ninth with a strikeout for his seventh save.

Another extra-inning affair could be taking a toll on the Phillies bullpen. Hector Neris did toss a clean ninth in a tied game striking out the side on 13 pitches. Adam Morgan pitched the seventh working around a walk with a strikeout and Pat Neshek threw a clean eighth inning, perhaps a preview to future to high leverage innings for an unpredictable bullpen? Wade Davis allowed a base hit to Rhys Hoskins, but preserved the tie in the top of the ninth. Chad Bettis, grabbed the win in relief despite giving up an earned run on two hits when Charlie Blackmon hit a two-run walk-off home run against Juan Nicasio.

Quick Hits: Save number two for Pedro Strop. He recorded one strikeout in two-thirds of an inning cleaning up a mess created by Brad Brach…Felipe Vazquez notched his sixth save striking out the side against San Francisco. Richard Rodriguez needed to bail out Nick Burdi who yielded a hit and a walk resulting in an earned run…Acclimating to the bullpen, Joe Ross pitched two scoreless innings giving up a hit with a strikeout…In a non-save outing, Alex Colome ceded his first run since April 10th on three hits, including a solo home run by Niko Goodrum…Rebound outing for Joe Jimenez pitching in the ninth. Jimenez struck out two in his first clean appearance since April second…Save seven for Edwin Diaz. He navigated around a hit and a walk with a strikeout…Ken Giles closed out a Blue Jays win with two strikeouts in the ninth, but with a four run lead…Another encouraging outing by Raisel Iglesias. He struck out the side preserving a tied game in San Diego. Jared Hughes gets the win in relief and Michael Lorenzen his first save striking out Wil Myers to end the game…Kirby Yates also pitched in the ninth of a tied game at home giving up a hit with a strikeout. Craig Stammen gets the loss allowing a hit and two runs, one earned, on a home run by Derek Dietrich…Reports of Mark Melancon getting save chances in the future makes him another stash candidate. Perhaps the Giants can read the tea leaves and will move Will Smith sooner, rather than later to yield a better haul of prospects. Stay tuned…

I know it’s early, but I think we can spot a pattern with Mychal Givens.

It’s fair to call Givens the Orioles’ primary closer, but a better (if not catchier) title would be “guy who comes in to clean up a mess in the eighth inning.” On Thursday night, and for the fifth time this season, Givens was called upon with runners on base in the eighth inning. Paul Fry and Evan Phillips had already allowed the Rays to whittle a 5-2 lead down to 5-4, but Givens restored order by getting the final two outs. In coming back out for the ninth inning, Givens had a chance to collect his first save of the season, but a one-out solo shot by Avisail Garcia ruined that.
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• Atlanta, we have a bullpen problem. We received word yesterday that Arodys Vizcaino is having season ending surgery on his shoulder so with him out of the picture for good, the Braves bullpen is reliant on the names we have been talking about all week – A.J. Minter, Chad Sobotka, Jesse Biddle, Dan Winkler, Shane Carle, and Wes Parsons. Al went over their situation yesterday and nothing has really changed besides the fact that Jesse Biddle struggled last night in extra innings walking three batters and taking the L. While Vizcaino’s season ending injury and the struggles across the Braves bullpen makes Minter the obvious saves candidate, as Al mentioned in great detail, he hasn’t been effective. Minter threw a scoreless inning last night but also allowed two hits generating 3 whiffs on 17 pitches. His velocity still isn’t at his previous levels and while nobody is barking up the Braves tree right now, something could change…

Craig Kimbrel is still lurking as a free agent and given the Braves bullpen struggles this would be a perfect fit. The Brewers have been most attached to Kimbrel although the Braves are “monitoring” the situation. Kimbrel to Atlanta makes a ton of sense but expecting the Braves to spend money here given their recent histories doesn’t make as much sense. If the Braves pass on Kimbrel the other options aren’t that attractive, which is good for Minter owners but bad for Braves fans. One possible down-the-road option could be  one or two members of the Braves bevvy of pitching talent moving to the bullpen and succeeding. Touki Touissant is now in the rotation but if someone like him moved to the pen it might not be long until they’re pitching in the 9th inning.

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The Phillies, Red Sox and Twins have made it difficult to know who we can rely on for saves, but that’s been pretty much by design. Suddenly, the Braves’ bullpen has become possibly the toughest one to figure out.

When the Braves placed Arodys Vizcaino (shoulder) on the IL on Sunday, that appeared to actually simplify their bullpen situation, as A.J. Minter figured to inherit virtually all of the save opportunities. The lefty fared well enough on Sunday night, pitching a perfect ninth inning in a Braves 7-3 win over the Mets. The stakes were a little higher on Tuesday night, as Minter was charged with keeping the score knotted at 6-6, giving his offense a chance to top the Diamondbacks in the bottom of the ninth inning with a single run. It took only two pitches for Minter to allow the Diamondbacks to surge ahead, as Christian Walker drove a cutter in the middle of the strike zone for a solo home run. He was charged with two more runs when Jacob Webb allowed an Adam Jones double that brought in two inherited baserunners.
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While so many questions linger regarding how bullpens will be deployed in the middle of April, it can be frustrating to see the quotes by the Mets about how they will use Edwin Diaz, yet, also refreshing. Many outwardly questioned why Diaz did not enter a tied game in the eighth inning with the bases loaded and New York leading by one. Per Mickey Callaway, Diaz will not pitch more than an inning, until the playoffs, nor will he enter a tied game on the road. Plan accordingly. Read the rest of this entry »

Perplexing bullpen situations did not get less perplexing on Sunday.

After the Phillies’ 3-1, 14-inning win over the Marlins, I am leaving their portion of the closer grid untouched, but that hardly means that the saves picture is getting clearer. Brian Anderson‘s home run in the bottom of the sixth inning knotted the game up at 1-1, and it would stay that way for seven-and-a-half innings. Because the Phillies were the visiting team, it’s hard to read too much into Gabe Kapler’s choice to use Pat Neshek in the seventh, Adam Morgan and Hector Neris in the eighth and David Robertson in the ninth and 10th.
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UPDATE: Right after publishing, Arodys Vizcaino was placed on the IL with shoulder information. Vizcaino’s shoulder issues were documented throughout the early going of the season but he seemed to be OK. Clearly that’s not necessarily the case with Vizcaino now on the IL. We don’t know how long Vizcaino will be on the shelf for, whether it’s rest or something larger. In his place, A.J. Minter is the clear first option with Chad Sobotka, Jesse Biddle, Wes Parsons and really everyone else in the back of the Braves pen behind them.

• After using Ian Kennedy to preserve the win on Friday the Royals turned to Wily Perlata in the 9th last night for the save, his first of the year. Ian Kennedy threw a perfect 8th inning with two strikeouts setting up Peralta and this remains a no doubt committee. It’s hard to tell who the favored option is on any given day with Brad Boxberger in the mix as along with Jake Diekman as a lefty also throwing high leverage innings. Ian Kennedy was used in the 6th and 7th innings on 4/10  but since then he’s been used in the 9th and 8th innings in back-to-back appearances. Brad Boxberger has the most traditional closer stuff and background but he’s allowed three runs in his last two appearances, and overall hasn’t been particularly effective. We still have him atop the grid given his background but he’s code red with Kennedy and Peralta right behind. Kennedy’s ability to be used for longer outings might preclude him from being a typical late inning option but he’s been the best reliever in their pen so far and at some point the cream will rise to the top, or the closer role in this case.

• When it feels like everyone is using a committee, it can be nice to see one situation possibly be breaking free, which brings us to Minnesota. Blake Parker got his third save in the 9th, with Taylor Rogers setting him up in the 8th. Earlier this season it seemed like Rogers was in the middle of a committee but he hasn’t seen a save opportunity since the start of the year and Parker might be cementing himself as the main guy to own here, at least for now. I can’t fully shed the committee label yet, since Parker’s last appearance was in the 7th and 8th innings. Once the Twins string a few save opportunities in a row we should have a better idea if the committee is still in play. Additionally, it’s worth noting that Parker has a poor 3/3 K/BB in his five innings this year, where one poor appearance can throw him behind Rogers and Trevor May in the pecking order. For now I would bet on Parker receiving the next saves but this situation could change fairly rapidly even as it seems like it’s calcifying.

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