Greg Holland picked a very bad time to lose control.

The Dodgers have been the most selective team in the National League, swinging on only 28.3 percent of the pitches they have seen outside of the strike zone. On Tuesday night, Holland was on the verge of collecting his 13th save for the Diamondbacks, pitching to Chris Taylor with a 4-3 lead, two outs and an 0-2 count. None of his next four pitches were close to the zone, and Taylor walked. Then Holland walked Russell Martin, Alex Verdugo and Matt Beaty, allowing the Dodgers to tie the game without getting a hit. He was lifted for T.J. McFarland, and when he left he had thrown 22 of his 30 pitches outside of the strike zone. Martin swung at one of them — a slider that missed the bottom of the zone by more than a foot — and none of Holland’s other out-of-zone pitches induced a swing.
Read the rest of this entry »

Desperation’s a stinky cologne remains one of many personal favorite movie quotes, courtesy of Super Troopers. With Boston’s bullpen under constant scrutiny due to usage and performance, it appears a new sheriff will occupy the ninth inning when healthy enough to return:

According to sources, the Red Sox plan on using Nathan Eovaldi as their closer when he returns from the Injured List. https://t.co/cxrS0ZErV0

— Tom Caron (@TomCaron) July 2, 2019

Nathan Eovaldi made three appearances as a reliever in last year’s World Series working eighth innings giving up three hits, one earned run and a walk with six strikeouts. Signed to be a starting pitcher, and even speaking to this prior to agreeing to a free agent deal to return to Boston, the lack of clarity at the end of games along with his injury concerns prompt this move. However, it remains to be seen how often Eovaldi will be able to work as a reliever. Perhaps he gets a Seth Lugo type usage pattern of requiring necessary days off after working and will Eovaldi be able to handle work on consecutive days? As of now, plan on Brandon Workman potentially working the ninth until the All-Star break but if Eovaldi’s been dropped and desperate for saves, stashing him now makes sense for the second half.

It’s been a remarkable year for Josh Hader. He’s already saved 20 games, owns a ridiculous 52.4 strikeout percentage (78 strikeouts of 149 total batters faced) and only one blown save this year with three holds as well. Last night, Hader only recorded a hold working the eighth inning and giving up a two run home run to Eugenio Suarez. Like three outcome hitters, it seems like Hader also produces three outcomes, a strikeout, a walk or a home run. Hader’s only yielded 15 hits all season in 41.2 innings but seven have been home runs. Relying almost exclusively on his fastball, Hader allows hard contact if he misses his spot with batters swinging from their heels to produce contact. This results in Hader’s 24.4 swinging strike percentage with only a 58.3 contact percentage against, but also his 19.4 home run per fly ball rate of the 61 percent of fly balls he generates. Suffice it to say, fantasy owners will accept Hader’s propensity to give up a home run for the strikeouts and saves. In fact, the homer by Suarez snapped a 11.1 inning scoreless streak by Hader and it’s the first home run (and hit) he’s allowed since June first.

After Milwaukee extended the lead back to three runs, they decided to sit down Hader rather than deploy him for a second inning. Jeremy Jeffress entered for the save chance giving up a single to Jose Iglesias then with two outs, Iglesias moved up on defensive indifference and scored on a single by Phillip Ervin before Jose Peraza grounded out to end the game. With a need for the bridge to firm up leading to Hader, the Brewers need Jeffress to round into form. With this outing, he’s allowed a run in four of his last five contests and in five of his last seven growing his ERA from 2.52 to its present 4.18. This, along with the reemergence of Matt Albers as detailed by Al Melchior in yesterday’s Bullpen Report, will continue to evolve. Especially with Milwaukee in on most relievers rumored on the trade block.

As for the Reds, a tough night for David Hernandez from a performance and personal standpoint. People often do not account for the human side from a player’s perspective. As a former teammate of Tyler Skaggs, Hernandez took the mound and did not pitch well in his high leverage moment. Not only did Hernandez suffer his second blown save, also his fourth loss allowing three hits, three earned runs and two walks. This tweet from Reds beat writer R. Trent Rosencrans seemed to encapsulate the night for Hernandez:

David Hernandez stood tall, answered every question about his outing. He took blame. Called it awful, said his mechanics are off. The whole 9. When asked about former teammate Tyler Skaggs, he got emotional and couldn't speak. It was a tough day for him way beyond the game

— C. Trent Rosecrans (@ctrent) July 2, 2019

With deference to the Angels, Skaggs family and the baseball community, thoughts and prayers to all. It should also be noted both Amir Garrett and Raisel Iglesias were not available for last night’s game leaving the Reds shorthanded against the slew of left-handed hitters in the Brewers lineup. This culminated in the game for Hernandez giving up an RBI single to Christian Yelich and a sacrifice fly to Mike Moustakas. Due to the recent fluidity of the Cincinnati bullpen, the high leverage moments remain in flux with Michael Lorenzen and Iglesias sharing recent save chances along with the potential for Garrett to face lefties in the ninth going forward.

Never to be overlooked in the world of fluid bullpens, Jose Alvarado resurfaced in Tampa Bay recording his first save since May 26th working around a double by Jonathan Villar striking out two in a scoreless ninth. It’s Alvarado’s seventh save of the season and an encouraging outing. He’s struggled with command and wild pitches so far but if Alvarado can right the ship, he shores up the Rays bullpen. With Diego Castillo slated to rejoin the team in Baltimore after the All-Star break, perhaps the team will add to its depth without needing to make a trade. Emilio Pagan locked down his sixth hold firing a clean eighth inning with two strikeouts. He also faced Renato Nunez, Pedro Severino and Hanser Alberto, who fare better versus southpaws paving the way for the Alvarado save chance. Pagan’s ability to work multiple innings and in high leverage moments at the team’s need probably caps his save opportunities but he’s an invaluable member of this bullpen. His last save occurred on June 21st and Pagan could receive another save prior to the break hence his position in the closer grid, even though it’s tenuous based on usage patterns.

Nothing frustrates fantasy owners more than a closer getting work in during a blowout. Case in point, Craig Kimbrel pitching in Pittsburgh last night. Kimbrel entered a game which the Cubs trailed by 10 runs and proceeded to allow a lead-off home run in the eighth to Jose Osuna along with a double to Adam Frazier and a two out, two run home run to Josh Bell. All told, Kimbrel yielded three hits and three earned runs with two strikeouts. It’s merely a blip in terms of his role as the closer and Chicago used Daniel Descalso to pitch the seventh. So, getting work in may make sense, but it rarely goes great when a closer works in situations without meaning.

With a very limited slate on Monday night, there’s no need for quick hits with most situations already covered. Have a safe and Happy Fourth of July!

Just as fantasy owners were likely questioning whether Raisel Iglesias would get another save for the Reds, he came through with his first one in three weeks on Sunday. However, the way Iglesias’ performance unfolded raises more questions than it answers.

David Bell brought Iglesias in for a two-inning save after Amir Garrett walked Jason Heyward to lead off the eighth inning, with the Reds out in front of the Cubs, 4-3. Iglesias preserved the lead, and with the Reds scoring four times in the bottom of the inning, he came back out for the ninth. Though he yielded a single and a walk, Iglesias appeared to be headed for an uneventful save, as he had Heyward in an 0-2 count with two outs. That’s when the Cubs’ outfielder pulled an inside fastball into the right field seats to cut the lead to two runs. Iglesias did retire Javier Baez for the final out, but that one swing increased his ERA to 4.41.
Read the rest of this entry »

• Wade Davis‘ struggles have been well documented so it was nice to see him throw a perfect inning, striking out a pair for his 12th save last night. Davis has been abysmal at home which can explain some of his troubles but Coors Field isn’t going anywhere. One clean save won’t necessarily get Davis out of the dog house either as Scott Oberg was unavailable last night. The next save opportunity for the Rockies will be more telling although given Wade Davis’ contract I have to imagine he gets another chance as full time closer again, and could even have that job back already.

• No save situation in Oakland but Liam Hendriks got the final four outs for the A’s. Blake Treinen is still on the shelf with a shoulder issue but he’s working his way towards returning. Treinen should get the job back once he returns but given his struggles, his elbow issue earlier, and now the shoulder impingement, I wouldn’t bet on an easy and clean return to the 9th. If Treinen has any setbacks, Hendriks would clearly continue to be the closer but even if/when Treinen returns I would hold onto Hendriks as Treinen’s struggles have been fairly prominent.

• Like many people, I was critical of the Braves for not acquiring a reliever but they might have something in Luke Jackson. Jackson pitched around a walk, striking out a pair for his 13th save and although he has quite a few blown saves, he’s been excellent of late. On the year Jackson has a 2.49 SIERA,  a 25.6% K-BB%, and a 15.2% SwStr% which ranks 8th, 17th, and 22nd respectively among qualified relievers. The Braves could still use additional bullpen arms as any competing team could more or less, but they’re not in dire straights for a closer/shutdown reliever. A.J. Minter has also been better of late and although I think Jackson’s job is safe, Minter would likely see saves when Jackson needs a breather moving forward.

• It’s a closer carousel every year but Shane Green has completely avoided it in Detroit, getting his 22nd save last night. I can’t say I expected Greene to be among the league leaders in saves with an ERA under one (0.87) but here we are. I have read that the Tigers would trade Shane Greene, along with other players on the roster, but there hasn’t been a strong link yet with any team. Greene has another year of team control next year so the Tigers won’t be shipping him off for peanuts but I would still expect him to finish the year on another team than Detroit. While Greene has a shiny ERA his peripherals, although pretty good, aren’t quite as strong and he may not be the best reliever on whichever team he would theoretically be traded to. With that said, I would keep cashing in on his saves moving forward as your league mates are probably just as worried as you are about a possible trade.

• Quick Hits: Greg Holland doesn’t get talked about too much around here but he’s been consistent as the Diamondbacks closer, notching his 12th save. Holland could be a desired piece if he was put on the market but the DBacks have been pretty good this year and I would expect them to keep him on the team. Poor outing from Hader last night as he only had one strikeout for his 20th save. Roenis Elias took the loss last night but remains the Mariners closer. Barring a bad run he should hold that job so long as he’s in Seattle, which may not last the month as he could be on the move at the deadline as a lefty arm. Jose Alvarado returned to Tampa and gave up a run in a non-save situation in the 9th. Alvarado should continue to pitch in high leverage innings in Tampa, splitting saves with Pagan. Sergio Romo isn’t sexy but he continues to put up saves, grabbing his 15th. It’s assumed Romo will be on the move as well but he’s not a particularly good pitcher so he might actually see more saves than expected to end the year.

With July on the horizon and the trade deadline set to take center stage after the All-Star break, bullpen hierarchies will remain fluid. Ahead of all of this, things seem to be intensifying in Cincinnati with Michael Lorenzen receiving the save chance against the Cubs on Friday night. Lorenzen converted his fifth save, and third in a row giving up a hit in 1.2 scoreless innings with two strikeouts. More intriguing, Raisel Iglesias did not make an appearance in this game with the Reds protecting a three-run lead. Momentum and performance tilt to Lorenzen’s favor to the chagrin of Iglesias owners. Read the rest of this entry »

Roughly 24 hours ago, we may have wondered how soon the Cubs would use Craig Kimbrel as their closer once he was called up. That question was answered quickly and definitively on Thursday night. Mere hours after getting promoted from Triple-A Iowa, Joe Maddon called on Kimbrel to protect a 9-7 lead against the Braves in the top of the ninth inning. He got off to an auspicious start to his tenure with his new team, throwing strikes on each of his first six pitches and retiring former battery mate Brian McCann and Johan Camargo. Kimbrel struck out McCann on three pitches, though the called third strike did appear to be just outside the strike zone.

After getting Ronald Acuna into a 1-2 count, Kimbrel’s night took a slight turn for the worse. Acuna worked his way into a seven-pitch at-bat, ultimately blemishing Kimbrel’s debut with a ground rule double. Then his control briefly abandoned him in a four-pitch walk to Dansby Swanson. It only took one pitch for Kimbrel to end the threat, as Anthony Rizzo snagged a Freddie Freeman grounder hit down the first base line and got to the base just in time to get the final out.
Read the rest of this entry »

• After a longer than normal offseason for him, Craig Kimbrel is back on the Cubs as he’s getting activated and is now no longer a Cubs minor leaguer. Kimbrel didn’t join the Cubs to not pitch in the 9th inning so he immediately moves to the top of the grid with Pedro Strop and Steve Cishek behind him in the pecking order. Kimbrel showed a few signs last year of some rust but 90% of Prime Kimbrel is still an elite closing option. It’s probably smarter to wait to see how Kimbrel does before anointing him as such but he will surely have a long leash, he will get strike outs even if he’s not as effective as expected, and the Cubs should provide him a healthy dose of leads to protect.

• The trade rumors are starting to percolate with Jon Morosi going over a few relievers who could be on the market. The Pirates have yet to suggest they’re going to fully sell and as a result haven’t mentioned Felipe Vazquez as a trade piece but Morosi connects the Dodgers as someone to have interest in Vazquez. Any contending team would of course love to add a Felipe Vazquez but until he’s mentioned as available it’s hard to say anything is imminent. With that said, Vazquez would likely lose his closer’s role on the Dodgers with Kenley Jansen cemented there. And while every team would love a Vazquez, not every team has the assets to acquire but the Dodgers do have a great farm system with a few pieces MLB or near MLB ready which is likely something the Pirates would want if they were to “rebuild.”

Of more interest in the Morosi piece is Will Smith, who we have mentioned as a trade candidate since the season started. Although the Giants have been horrible, Smith has upped his game becoming not just a solid lefty option but a shutdown reliever. Will Smith ranks 3rd in the MLB in K-BB% for relievers behind Josh Hader and Ken Giles but ahead of bigger names like Edwin Diaz, Brad Hand, and Felipe Vazquez. The Giants expected to trade Will Smith this summer but they likely didn’t expect to get as big of a return as they might get given how well Smith has done. If/when Smith is traded, it will be interesting to see who replaces him. Tony Watson’s usage suggests it could be him but Sam Dyson and Mark Melancon (and his contract) are also lingering. Reyes Moronta is the closer of the future but there are too many options ahead of him at the moment. Also, while Smith gets a lot of the deserved attention, all the aforementioned names behind him in the pen are on the table too and could be moved in a deal either with or separately from Smith.

• For a while Matt Barnes was named the best reliever in Boston but wasn’t being used as the main closer. While he still might be the best reliever of the bunch he hasn’t been of late as his struggles continued last night blowing his 6th save after Jose Abreu took him deep in the 9th inning.  The Sox pen remains both a committee and a disaster with Barnes, Workman, Brasier, and others eligible for a save on a given night.

• Speaking of disasters, Raisel Iglesias had one last night in a non-save situation. Iglesias entered in a tie game in the 8th and proceeded to allow three hits, a walk, and a homer to Justin Bour culminating in four earned runs and a 7th loss. Iglesias’ seasonal line is still pretty good with a 3.68 SIERA and a healthy amount of whiffs but he has been a legitimate disaster in non-save situations. A poor outing is a poor outing and it’s hard to fully buy into Iglesias not being as good in non-save situations moving forward, but earlier this season he confessed his distaste for being used non-traditionally so it might force the Reds hand to use him as a regular closer. Iglesias’ struggles outside of the 9th make me less likely to put the Reds situation as a committee even if they have low key been trending towards that direction. I’m keeping the grid the same with Iglesias’ seat getting a tad warm.

• Quick Hits: Taylor Rogers had a four-out save and his grasp on the job is tightening. As we have mentioned, the Twins could very likely add to their pen and throw Rogers and co. back into a committee but for now he’s their guy. Roenis Elias recorded his 10th save, throwing two innings in the process and he’s proving himself as someone capable to close games or be used as a lefty and should be a decent trade target this summer because as we know everything is for sale in Seattle. A.J. Minter got the save last night with Luke Jackson and Anthony Swarzak getting a night off. Minter is still behind those two in the pecking order but he’s been pretty good of late and is helping firm the Braves pen. Liam Hendricks nailed down his 2nd save of the year with Blake Treinen on the IL. Treinen has a shoulder issue so I wouldn’t bank on a quick return and would bank on Hendricks receiving the vast majority of saves for the remainder of the year in Oakland. Sean Doolittle (17) and  Wade Davis (11) also recorded saves last night.

For nearly three months, Jordan Hicks put on a breakout performance in 2019. He became a much more prolific strikeout pitcher and seamlessly moved into the Cardinals’ closer role, locking down 14 of his 15 save opportunities. Now his 2019 campaign is officially over, as he is scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery on Wednesday morning. Carlos Martinez is officially the Cardinals’ closer now.

In his 15 innings this season, Martinez has not been especially proficient at getting swings-and-misses (9.8 percent SwStr%) or strikeouts (23.3 percent K%), but he has been masterful at inducing ground balls (61.5 percent rate) and soft airborne contact. Of the 447 pitchers who have allowed at least 40 batted balls this season, only one (Taylor Cole) has yielded a lower average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives than Martinez has (86.0 mph). Given that Martinez has pitched barely more than a month’s worth of innings, as he started his season late due to a shoulder strain, it’s hard to know if he will be better, worse or about the same now that he will serve as a closer. Even with that uncertainty, Martinez is worth adding in just about every league where he is available.
Read the rest of this entry »

Due to all the volatile bullpens across the landscape, Brad Hand could be underappreciated. Last night, he did not convert a save, but did garner his fourth win after a Jason Kipnis walk-off home run versus the Royals. Hand fired a clean top of the 10th with a strikeout and secured 22 straight save chances this year for Cleveland. In June, Hand’s surged with a 17:1 K:BB in 11.2 innings resulting in one earned run against (0.77 ERA) and minuscule 0.60 WHIP in a complete hitter’s environment. Over his last 17 games, Hand’s recorded 26 strikeouts in 17.2 innings with a 0.51 ERA anchoring an evolving bullpen. Nick Wittgren did incur his second blown save allowing two hits and a walk in his two innings and the game tying run. Tyler Clippard yielded a hit in a scoreless seventh for his second hold.

As for the Royals, Wily Peralta absorbs the loss serving up the home run to Jason Kipnis. Peralta’s given up runs in back-to-back outings and four earned runs in only seven innings this month. Jake Diekman worked around a hit and a walk during a scoreless eighth inning and Jorge Lopez did strikeout two in 1.1 innings but also allowed one hit along with a walk in his appearance. Suffice it to say, fantasy owners should only own Ian Kennedy in this bullpen and if he’s traded, hope one of the arms in the minors can take over in high leverage.

Perhaps a rebound outing to get Wade Davis back on track in San Francisco? He logged his first clean inning since returning from the injured list on June seventh. Davis notched his 10th save and moved to three-for-five in save chances this month. However, he’s yielded far too much traffic since his activation giving up 12 hits and five walks over 7.1 innings translating to a 2.33 WHIP, less than optimal for a closer. Davis did turn his season around last year after watching video so hope lies in health and his track record. He could be a speculative buy low from a frustrated owner, but note his performance going forward. Scott Oberg gets his sixth hold striking out two in a clean eighth inning and Jairo Diaz nets his fifth hold working around two hits with a strikeout in the seventh.

Like Hand above, Aroldis Chapman often gets referenced in the Quick Hits portion of this report due to his performance and relative safety of closing for the Yankees. It’s likely Chapman did not think he’d be pressed into duty while his teammates led by eight after six innings, but five earned runs allowed by Jonathan Holder changed things. Chapman recorded his 22nd save allowing a double to Randal Grichuk, with deference to an interesting route taken by Giancarlo Stanton who then bobbled the ball leading to Grichuk reaching third and an error charged to Stanton. A sacrifice fly by Rowdy Tellez resulted in an unearned run charged to Chapman. As for Chapman, he’s secured a save in each of his last five appearances and not allowed an earned run in his last 17 games. In this span, Chapman’s racked up 24 strikeouts against six walks in 16.1 innings.

Meanwhile in Boston, Brandon Workman benefits with his seventh win striking out the only batter he faced in the top of the ninth inning, Tim Anderson. Workman continues to log high leverage events for the Red Sox but predicting who will get the save proves frustrating. Josh Taylor pitched an inning walking one and striking out one. Both Colten Brewer and Marcus Walden tossed scoreless two-thirds innings as well. Boston could receive a boost in bullpen depth with the pending return of Steven Wright from suspension and Heath Hembree from injury as noted in this article by Alex Speier. Wright will fill a huge role being able to absorb multiple innings and Hembree worked into more high leverage before his most recent injury. Stay tuned to as the Cora turns.

For the White Sox, they’ve received a tremendous return so far in their trade for Alex Colome, but his setup pitcher Kelvin Herrera continues to struggle. Herrera gets his second blown save giving up two hits and an earned run. He’s allowed runs in each of his last two outings, a 4.50 ERA in June and 6.83 ERA this season. It remains to be seen if a contract will keep Herrera in his present role or if the team will shift him into lower leverage appearances in an effort to get him on track. Aaron Bummer did record his sixth hold navigating around a hit and a walk during his inning. Evan Marshall coughed up a home run to Mookie Betts during his one-third of an inning. Jace Fry takes the loss loading the bases with two outs prior to an infield hit by Marco Hernandez ended the game. As for any reliever, traffic usually leads to trouble but will not comment on whether or not Anderson should have tried for a force out at third rather than throw to first on the game ending play.

No save opportunity in Chicago, but Steve Cishek tossed a clean ninth striking out two preserving a win. Of course, fantasy owners would like to know when Craig Kimbrel returns, which could be a soon as Thursday with this weekend being the latest according to this tweet:

Theo Epstein said that Craig Kimbrel could be with the team by the end of the week pending outing in minors today and conversation with the group tomorrow .

— Bruce Levine (@MLBBruceLevine) June 24, 2019

In Arizona, a meltdown by Dylan Floro of the Dodgers led to a save chance for Greg Holland. Floro served up four hits, four earned runs and a walk in two-thirds of an inning in the eighth. Holland notched his 11th save, and first since the 12th of June getting the last out of the game via strikeout. One out saves prove to be a crowd pleaser in the fantasy community. Holland owners should thank T.J. McFarland who gave up a hit and an earned run leading to the save opportunity. It remains to be seen if the Diamondbacks will hold or decide to sell at the deadline, but saves speculators may stash Yoan Lopez in case they do move pieces in the future. Lopez won his first decision last night after the rally giving up a hit with two strikeouts. He’s worked 8.1 scoreless innings in June with a tidy 7:1 K:BB allowing only three hits in this sample. If he can build upon his swinging strike percentage and continue to blossom as a reliever, more high leverage events could ensue.

Quick Hits: A sad trombone for Jordan Hicks. Reports surfaced on Monday about his injury and the MRI revealed a torn UCL ligament. He will likely undergo surgery to repair the ligament so his owners should plan accordingly. John Gant should assume primary setup duties with Carlos Martinez shifting to the primary closer role. This also shifts Andrew Miller into potential periphery save chances as well due to usage patterns. There’s no word on if the Cardinals will look to bolster the bullpen via trade, much will depend on how the Wild Card and division races evolve for St. Louis going forward…Still no definitive timeline with a return for Jose Alvarado, but his teammate Diego Castillo will miss the next two weeks with a shoulder impingement. This probably puts Castillo on the shelf until the All-Star break.

Kirby Yates doesn’t get the attention he deserves in this column, because he has literally been automatic. Entering Sunday’s series finale with the Pirates, he had converted all 26 of his save opportunities this season. Only twice had he allowed more than one hit in an appearance, and he had yet to allow more than two hits in an outing.

Yates entered uncharted territory on Sunday, as he did not protect the Padres’ 7-4 lead in the bottom of the ninth inning. His inning began with Elias Diaz reaching as a result of a Manny Machado error, and he subsequently allowed an Adam Frazier double and RBI singles to Kevin Newman and Bryan Reynolds. Yates would not allow any more hits, but thanks to Starling Marte‘s sacrifice bunt that advanced Newman and Reynolds, Melky Cabrera’s lightly-hit grounder down the first base line was enough to bring Newman home to tie the game. Cabrera was out at first, and then Yates retired Colin Moran to send the game into extra innings.
Read the rest of this entry »