Today’s Bullpen Report focuses on two guys who fantasy owners have been riding in 2012, but whose peripherals suggest that some of their acts may be smoke and mirrors.
• Steve Cishek recorded his sixth save — coming on to retire Danny Espinosa via strikeout after Josh Johnson was unable to finish off a complete game. Ozzie Guillen had stated that he was planning on going with a committee after Heath Bell’s lastest run of implosions but it’s growing clear that Cishek is (at the very least) way out in front of the group. Cishek’s 1.81 ERA makes him out to be a bit better of a pitcher than he actually has been this season (3.93 xFIP) mostly because he probably has a few too many walks on the whole (10.7%). The other major concern with investing in Cishek as a full-time closer remains his platoon splits — the low arm slot righty has a sterling career 0.239 wOBA against right-handed hitters, but has a more pedestrian 0.307 versus lefties (0.349 in 2012). That said, even if these numbers may not imply long-time stability in the closer’s role, it’s pretty obvious that @srSHREK31 has a good enough grip on the majority of save opps that he deserves to be lifted from red-light territory (for now).
• Just a few hours after last night’s Bullpen Report was published, the Rangers touched up Angels’ closer Ernesto Frieri for four runs (three earned) on three hits and a walk to be charged with his first blown save of the season. As an Angel, Frieri held opponents scoreless in 26.1 consecutive innings up until July 15th, but hasn’t been his dominant self as of late. The struggles seem to stem from the 1.8 K/BB (2.77 K/BB on the year) and the three long balls he’s surrendered in the last seven outings as his ERA with the Angels climbed from 0.00 to 1.95 over that short time. Despite the recent bumps in the road, Frieri is still the reliever to own in Anaheim, especially with Scott Downs hitting the DL.
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• Steve Cishek of the Miami Marlins’ nailed down his fifth save of the season tonight in a 4-2 victory over the Atlanta Braves. Cishek faced the minimum three batters — and although he surrendered a leadoff walk to Michael Bourn — needed just 12 pitches to get out of the inning. Tonight’s save was the fourth consecutive conversion since July 6th for the 6-6 right-hander who now owns a 1.86 ERA (3.97 xFIP) and a 2.1 K/BB. For those chasing saves, consider Cishek who is available in 69 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
Heath Bell, who hasn’t entered a game in a save situation since July 8th, appeared in the eighth inning of tonight’s game and earned his fourth hold of the year.
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• Greg Holland owners, your patience has finally paid off! Jonathan Broxton was traded today to the Reds and while he may see an occasional save opportunity to spell Aroldis Chapman, his days of being the primary closer this year are over. Meanwhile, Greg Holland will be the Royals new closer and he certainly has the stuff to be a successful one. Although his 3.63 ERA and 1.56 WHIP don’t suggest a top notch closer, he’s been unlucky with a .388 BABIP and his 2.92 xFIP and 12.71 K/9 illustrate the ability he has to be one of the premier closers in fantasy baseball.
• The Rockies haven’t been able to give many save chances to their closer Rafael Betancourt who’s had a solid year pitching to a 3.62 xFIP with a 9.24 K/9 and they may not have many more opportunities as Betancourt trade rumors are heating up. Troy Renck lists Oakland, Atlanta, Toronto, Texas and the Anaheim part of Los Angeles as possible suitors for Betancourt and if he’s traded, Matt Belisle or Rex Brothers could take over closing duties for Colorado. Rex Brothers may have more potential and the better swing and miss stuff (11.90 K/9; 14.1% SwStr%) but he’s a lefty and I’d expect Matt Belisle to get the first nod. Belisle has been one of the more underrated relievers over the last few years and has continued to excel this season with a 2.98 xFIP in 53 innings pitched.
• Over the weekend Colin noted Jim Johnson’s recent struggles and although he let two batters reach base tonight against the Yankees he was able to strike out two en route to his 31st, and major league leading, save of the season. With the expanded playoffs, Baltimore is still in the race so Johnson’s job is still relatively secure but he can’t afford any more six run blow ups like he had last week.
• Frank Francisco is currently on the DL but that might change soon as he’s now planning on returning to the Mets this weekend against the Padres. Although Francisco had converted 18 of the 21 save opportunities he received for the Mets, he didn’t pitch particularly well with a 4.97 ERA and 4.21 xFIP. Bobby Parnell blew a couple of saves in a row a few weeks ago, but besides that he’s been great for the Mets with a 3.06 xFIP on the year. My money is on Francisco regaining the job for the Mets, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Parnell get another chance before the season’s end as Francisco has been both injured and inconsistent while Parnell has pitched better.
• Bad news for Luke Gregerson owners this week as Huston Street signed a two-year $14 million extension with the Padres. Street was obviously in trade rumors the past few weeks but his extension ensures that he will at least stay on the Padres for the remainder of 2012. Gregerson has been a reliable reliever to help your ratios (3.17 xFIP; 1.14 WHIP) but any value he had for potential saves is now gone.
• Pitching in the seventh inning tonight against the Brewers, Francisco Cordero gave four hits and two runs and his time as the Astros closer might be over. As of this writing, no change has been made but Wilton Lopez would make a nice pick up right about now. Cordero has appeared in five games for the Astros this year and so far he’s blown three saves while giving up eight runs.
For those of you who play daily fantasy games like FanGraphs: The Game, or just like to stream players, here is a matchup you may be able to exploit.
A Pitcher for Tomorrow: Ernesto Frieri (LAA) at TEX
It’s never a bad decision to avoid pitchers in Texas but with Jered Weaver on the hill the Angels have a great shot at a win. Frieri is also well rested having last pitched on Friday, so look for him to have a chance for a save and strikeouts against the Rangers.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
• Ugly, ugly, ugly in Milwaukee. The combination of Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford gave up six runs between the eighth and ninth innings today (four hits, two walks, two wild pitches) to help Milwaukee blow a 5-2 lead against the Nationals. With K-Rod starting the eighth inning, signs pointed to Axford getting back into the saves mix after throwing five consecutive scoreless outings (5/2 K/BB over 5.1 innings) and he was called upon to attempt to bail out the visibly wild Rodriguez before allowing two of his inherited runners to score in addition to the three he let cross the plate in the ninth. Axford’s 3.14 xFIP paints the picture of a guy unlucky enough to have an unfathomably high 20.0 HR/FB%; although Brewers fans probably take little solace in those results. That said, his FIP (which doesn’t normalize the home run rate, so he’s penalized for all seven dingers he’s given up this season) is still 4.14, a full run lower than his 5.11 ERA. In fact, even with today’s outing, Axford still owns the lowest xFIP on the Brew Crew. Even with that knowledge, Ron Roenicke was pushing a committee as recently as a few days ago, so given today’s events, Kameron Loe (3.60 xFIP, 3.10 over the last thirty days) might be in the running to pitch the ninth while Axford and Rodriguez lick their wounds.
• Whoa. Did Jim Johnson have a major meltdown or what? Tasked with closing out a 9-8 win at home versus the Athletics, he was rocked for six runs on five hits and a walk. Over his last eight appearences, he’s thrown 6.1 innings with a 2/2 K/BB — good for an 18.47 ERA (pushing his season mark up to 3.71 after it was as low as 0.78 last month). Johnson’s smoke and mirrors act has been mentioned in this column before, but it bears repeating that his K% is only 14.0% and his SwStr% is 6.1%, both well below league-average for late-inning relievers. Johnson’s regression has brought his ERA back in line with his xFIP (3.80) and he figures to pitch to that number going forward (not as good as he was early in the season and not as bad as the last couple weeks). He’s unlikely to be in any imminent danger of losing his job, but Pedro Strop racked up a couple saves earlier this season (and he sports the 1.40 ERA, even though his 3.80 xFIP is identical to Johnson’s) so he’s no stranger to the ninth inning at Camden. Hopefully owners were able to sell him as a top-10 closer when he was way up fantasy leaderboards in May and June.
• Jason Motte rattled off three consecutive strikeouts in the top of the ninth today en route to his 22nd save of the season and a 7-4 Cardinals victory over the Hanleywood Dodgers. Motte has quietly collected those 22 saves in 26 chances this year and has now locked down nine consecutive opportunities. The Cardinals’ ninth inning man is sporting a fine 2.72 ERA (3.37 xFIP) and a 3.58 K/BB (25.9 K%, 7.2 BB%) on the year.
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• Frank Francisco made his first rehab appearance tonight for the Double-A Binghamton Mets of the Eastern League. The outing wasn’t pretty for Francisco, who only lasted two-thirds of an inning while surrendering two earned runs on three hits and a walk. Mets’ GM Sandy Alderson said Francisco should pitch again for Binghamton on Thursday or Friday.
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