Hoping you all had a wonderful Opening Day. I’m not sure if we will see the closer type of carousel that we saw last year, but on the first day there was already some drama so here it goes: Read the rest of this entry »

Night one is in the books! Only one game tonight, but hallelujah, baseball’s back! No blown saves or bullpen drama tonight, but the odds are that’s not going to be the case tomorrow!

• Drum roll, please. The season’s first save goes to… Erik Bedard? If I was a wittier Rotographs writer, I’d make some elaborate April Fool’s quip about rushing to your wire to pick up Bedard (maybe while messing around with the closer grid), but there’s a reason I’ll never be allowed to write for NotGraphs. Bedard piggybacked off starter Bud Norris; throwing 3 1/3 scoreless innings and satisfying the last option in MLB Rule 10.19 (a pitcher can earn a save by finishing a game effectively while pitching 3+ innings). Congrats to you if you backed into a “SV” while actually starting Bedard at the back end of your fantasy rotation. Don’t be offended that I’m taking the under on 0.5 saves the rest of the way, though.

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• Bruce Rondon was optioned to AAA Thursday, ending speculation as to whether the flamethrowing, but wild, 22-year-old was going to break camp as the Tigers closer. Rondon didn’t help his case by allowing 17 hits and nine walks in 12.1 innings this spring, but has a live enough arm that he should climb into the Tigers bullpen at some point (whether or not as closer remains to be seen).

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Welcome to the first Bullpen Report of 2013! Starting Opening Day, we’ll be back on a nightly basis, discussing near real-time bullpen happenings and what those Heath Bell meltdowns mean for your fantasy squad (hint: not too much this year). To stay sharp, we figured we needed to get a couple side sessions in to make sure we’re ready so we’ll be popping in every few days for the next couple weeks to hopefully provide some assistance (at least do no harm) for your drafts and pre-season waiver moves.

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Just a couple of quick hitters on the final evening of the 2012 regular season:

• Fernando Rodney dished one-third of an inning tonight for his 48th save of the season. In doing so, Rodney lowered his ERA to 0.60 — the lowest ERA for a relief pitcher in MLB history with a minimum of 50 innings pitched. He just edged Dennis Eckersley’s 0.61 ERA effort in 1990. The Rays hold a $2.5 million option for Rodney’s services in 2013, which will likely be picked up.
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• Andrew Bailey wasn’t too effective this evening, letting five batters reach base and giving up two runs en route to a blown save against the Yankees. In fact, since returning to the Red Sox from surgery on his thumb Bailey hasn’t really pitched well with a 5.05 xFIP in 15.1 innings pitched thus far. However, with only one game remaining in the season, I don’t think Bailey is in danger of losing his job in 2012 and should receive a save opportunity if one arises tomorrow night. Also, based on the Red Sox roster, it should be Bailey’s job to lose in 2013.

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• Well, it looks like Tyler Clippard’s run as Nationals closer has hit the skids just before the end of the regular season. Yesterday, it was Drew Storen who was called upon in the ninth. Of course, Storen blew the save by serving up a couple hits and a sacrifice fly, but the key fact was that Clippard was deliberately used in his old eighth inning role. I covered Storen’s positive trends last week (velocity up to pre-injury levels, great K/BB ratio) so I won’t rehash here. Clippard has struggled significantly over the last month or so and while his 4.13 xFIP isn’t terrible, it isn’t elite either. Given Washington’s hesitance to move him from setup into the ninth inning earlier this season, it seems more than plausible that the new pecking order has Storen locked into the closer role, especially with the team about to embark on their first playoff run in D.C.

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• After splitting save chances with Jared Burton for a month or so, Glen Perkins has quietly taken over the ninth inning all to himself in the second half of the season. He finished off save number 16 on Friday, throwing a 1-2-3 inning as the Twins upset the Tigers. Perkins has been as steady as relievers come this year, not flashing elite numbers, but putting up monthly xFIPs between 3.02 (April) and 3.67 (July). While his K% has dropped from the high-20% area to the mid-20% realm (possible a result of a slight downtick in fastball velocity), his BB% has plunged from near 10% before the all-star break to a shockingly low 2.5% after. The move the Twins made to buy out a few years of Perkins post-arbitration free agency is looking especially shrewd and he seems to be a near-mortal lock to be the team’s closer come April 2013. He’s only owned in 36% of Yahoo! leagues so run and grab the stat geek if you need saves — keeper league owners would be wise to stash/hold him– a guy with a guaranteed closer job and a plummeting walk rate should sneak into the back end of the top 15 closers on draft boards next year.

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• Things were going well in the last month for John Axford, who had saved 15 consecutive games dating back to August 21st, until tonight when Todd Frazier smacked a two-out homerun in the bottom of the ninth to bring the Reds even at 1-1 with the Brewers. Frazier’s long ball was the beginning of the end for Axford and the Crew on Thursday — a subsequent Jay Bruce single and a Dioner Navarro triple resulted in a 2-1 victory for the Reds. The Brewers walked off the field with their heads down knowing their playoff chances may have snuck past them tonight, and no one feels worse than the Brewers’ closer. Axford has now blown nine of his 42 save chances on the year to go with a 4.88 ERA (1.46 WHIP).
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• Mets reliever Frank Francisco will likely miss the remainder of the 2012 season after experiencing a setback from elbow tendinitis this past weekend. Manager Terry Collins indicated that since Francisco hasn’t pitched in nine days, he’d need to get some side work in before getting back into live action, but with just eight games remaining, “he’s not sure when that would take place.” The Mets closer saved 23-of-26 games with a 5.53 ERA (4.10 xFIP) and a 2.24 K/BB – his lowest since 2007 when he sported a 1.77 K/BB.
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