On a relatively slow night from a bullpen perspective, it’s probably important to note that the RotoGraphs team dropped our midseason reliever rankings this afternoon on the site. You can see the entire list here, which includes a surprising Fernando Rodney ranking from our friend Paul Sporer.
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• While it continues to be a committee in Chicago, it appears Jason Motte is top dog in the Cubbie bullpen at the present. The former Cardinal stopper racked up another save today, notching number six with a pair of punchouts. Motte appears to be almost back to full strength after Tommy John surgery a few years ago, with his fastball velocity only a mph off where it was in 2012 (before he went under the knife). The renewed velocity hasn’t led to a huge strikeout jump, however, with the righty currently owning what would be a career-worst 15% mark. His SwStr% rate is also down, but he is continuing to get good linear weights on the fastball, so it’s unclear whether his stuff is flat or he’s just inducing weak contact (his Hard% is his lowest since 2011). Regardless, the low strikeout rate is helping keep his xFIP at a mediocre 4.61, so while he has value right now because he’s getting the opportunities, the possibility of regression exists. Hector Rondon got the “W” today and still owns a sexy 1.93/2.82 SIERA combination, so I’d cuff Motte with him in all leagues where Rondon has been dropped. Additionally, Rafael Soriano is now in the mix, but with peripherals only marginally better than Motte’s over the last few years, he’s less appetizing to me (besides the whole proven closer(TM) thing, I guess).
• Jonathan Papelbon closed out a rare Phillies win for his 16th save of the season tonight against the Rays. With Ken Giles throwing in the previous two games, the Phillies went Jake Diekman –> Luis Garcia –> Jeanmar Gomez for the bridge to Papelbon. However if/when Papelbon is traded, Ken Giles is ready to become the closer. There are no strong trade rumors at the moment and the deadline is approaching, but I’d still expect Papelbon to change teams. He’s not particularly cheap next year but it’s not a long term commitment and he’s proving to still be quite effective pitching to a 1.72/2.95/3.18 ERA/FIP/xFIP line. Throw in the fact that he’s vocally expressed a preference to change teams and I would be a bit optimistic if I were a Giles owner.
Joe Blanton got his first career save on Sunday. He touched 93 and generated three whiffs with his twelve pitches. Even with this dominant outing, there will be no changes to the Royals grid. This was simply a chance for Ned Yost to rest his entire pen as the Royals are facing a tough slate coming out of the break. They started the weekend with a doubleheader, and the off day that was scheduled for this Thursday has been replaced with a trip to St. Louis between home dates with the Pirates and Astros. They don’t get a reprieve until August 3.
As we inch ever closer to the trade deadline, eyes continue to be on the Phillies to see if Jonathan Papelbon will finally be traded, allowing Ken Giles to grab the closer role. Giles is humming along with a 15.6% SwStr% and 19.4% K%-BB%, so he’s got the stuff to close. His fastball velocity has been creeping up as the weather has warmed up. Depending on the depth of your league, he’s likely not going to be available, but if he is, grab him now before it’s too late. He pitched a scoreless eighth and was awarded his fourth win when the Phillies tagged the Marlins pen with four runs in the bottom half. Papelbon gave up a run and a couple of hits to close it out in a non-save situation. There shouldn’t be anything to read in to Carter Capps only facing one hitter in the eighth. Dan Jennings just loved the Mike Dunn matchup against Ryan Howard.
It’s time to pull the trigger on picking up Jim Johnson in your shallow league. He’s probably long gone in your deeper leagues. There was a strong chance that he’d be closing games for the Braves as the season went on, but most thought that it would be as a result of a floundering Braves team becoming sellers at the deadline and getting what they could for Jason Grilli. Unfortunately, one of 2015’s top closers(sixth in saves, tenth in WAR amongst qualifying relievers) is going to miss the rest of the season after rupturing his Achilles Saturday afternoon in Denver. The Braves bullpen has seen plenty of turnover this year, as they’ve had 24 pitchers come out of the bullpen. 24!!!! Mark Bradley has a good look at Arodys Vizcaino and posits that it may be his time to get a shot at closing. He’s on the grid behind Johnson for now and David Aardsma slots back in to the third spot. Mike Foltynewicz is a candidate as well, but Aardsma has the track record that managers tend to lean towards, so until Folty is seeing seventh and eighth inning leads on the reg, he’ll be just on the cusp for now.
Hector Rondon pitched the eighth inning against the White Sox on Friday, didn’t surrender a hit, didn’t walk a man, and yet was saddled with the loss and an earned run. After he plunked Emilio Bonifacio, a stolen base was followed by a sac bunt and a sac fly for the only run of the game. His usage by Maddon fit in with how he’s slotted on the closer grid. Justin Grimm came on for the ninth once the Cubs fell behind. The White Sox used a late inning trio of Jake Petricka, Zach Duke, and David Robertson to shut out the Cubs over three innings, striking out six and allowing only two baserunners. The save was Robertson’s 19th.
• As Alan intimated last night, Huston Street did indeed tweak something at the end of yesterday’s 299th career save. The Angel closer is probably done for this weekend’s set against the Mariners with a groin strain. Ouch. While the team seems to think it is minor (and that he should be back following the all-star break), Joe Smith is a must grab if you need saves and have the room. Aside from the fact that he could scab a “SV” or two over the next couple of days, groin injuries can be a tricky thing — especially with pitchers. Smith’s 2015 hasn’t been quite as sparkling as his 2014, but still the owner of a sub-3.00 SIERA, he’d be a fine choice to hold down the ninth if needed. A concern with the low-arm-slot reliever has been platoon splits, but his versus LHB xFIP was 3.71 in 2014 and is 4.06 this season. Neither are good, but given that he’s been great against righties, neither seems like a death sentence. I’m stashing where I can until Street is back and proves he is healthy for a couple outings.
Good news in Cleveland as Cody Allen appeared tonight for the first time since Friday, missing time with a stiff back. He seemed to pick up right where he left off, retiring each of the three Astros’ he faced on just ten pitches to notch his 17th save of the season. On the year, the 26-year-old is 17-of-18 in save opportunities with a 3.25 ERA (1.72 FIP) and a 14.5 K/9. Entering tonight, Allen’s 27.9% K-BB% ranked him sixth-best among qualified closers in that category, only behind Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, Yimi Garcia and Carson Smith. Read the rest of this entry »
• No save situation for the Cubs this afternoon, but they had to bring in their closer Jason Motte to get the last two outs of the game. Every day that goes by seems to cement Motte’s role in the ninth. The Cubs bullpen use could be Maddon-ing to Hector Rondon owners, but moving forward expecting Motte to receive the lion’s share of saves.