Catchers ADP Market Report: 1/12/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising
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Top 100 Players Falling
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Top 200 Players Rising
Daulton Varsho (+34.89) – Varsho continues his climb up the ADP in part because of an errant pick in November, but also because he is emerging as a popular “sleeper” pick. He now rests inside of the top 150 and as the sixth catcher off the board. I have been anti-Varsho for a while now after getting some information from inside of the Diamondbacks organization that told me that “the only person that thinks he is a catcher long term is the GM” and that he has a questionable work ethic. That being said, he has catcher eligibility for now and he has tremendous upside with the bat. He could easily be a 20/10 .275 guy if given full time playing time and there aren’t many catchers that could deliver numbers like that.

James McCann (+41.31) – It is not surprising to see McCann continue to climb up the ADP after he signed a long term deal with the Mets. In some ways it is a great landing spot, but it also has its drawbacks. The park factors are going to make it much harder for the 30-year-old to hit for as much power and he will now hit at the bottom of the lineup. I still like McCann, but I as the ADP continues to rise I am starting to not love the price. Taking him over the upside of catcher like Gary Sanchez and Mitch Garver seems silly to me and if he continues to climb over guys like Austin Nola and Sean Murphy, I will definitely be out.

Top 200 Players Falling
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Top 300 Players Rising
Mitch Garver (+22.61) – It is not surprising to see Garver to start to rise back up the ADP. He had a huge 2019, but struggled with injuries that hampered his 2020. In spite of the disappointing 2020, his average exit velocity was still great (in a very small sample). You should throw out his 2020 for the most part and if you do that, you are probably getting a 15 homer bat with a .250 average if he is getting usual catching time. Now, if you add some more plate appearances at DH with both Nelson Cruz and Eddie Rosario gone, now we are potentially talking about him getting to 20-25+ home runs. Playing time questions are there, but if he can catch 2-3 times a week and DH or play first 2-3 times as well, 500 plate appearances aren’t out of the question.

Top 300 Players Falling
Gary Sanchez (-8.45) – Oh, how the mighty has fallen! In 2018, Sanchez was a top 25 pick, in 2018, he was a top 60 pick and last season he was a top 80 pick. Now, Sanchez is going around pick 205! I get the drop in ADP, but it is not like he doesn’t still have huge upside left in his bat. He still has an average exit velocity in the 89th percentile, a hard hit percentage in the 92nd percentile and a barrel percentage in the 97th percentile! The problem is swing and miss. He has a swinging strike rate of almost 14% and swings out of the zone 31.5% percent of the time. At his current price, he is definitely worth the gamble considering he could easily be the #1 catcher if he makes more contact or just gets lucky. At worst, he is a Mendoza line hitter with a ton of power and at catcher, that is still better than a lot of options.

Jorge Alfaro (-7.72) – It isn’t too surprising to see Alfaro dropping in the ADP. Alfaro missed the first part of the season due to COVID-19 and then never really got going. He still hits the ball hard, but hits it a lot on the ground and swings and misses a lot. There is also the chance he isn’t the main catcher which would obviously hurt his value, but I think he is considering he caught 19 of the Marlins games in September. Alfaro is a risky C2 that is a bit of a boom or bust.