Catcher ADP Market Report: 12/4/2022

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

J.T. Realmuto (+4.71)- It is not surprising to see Realmuto rising coming off of one of the greatest seasons from a catcher in the history of fantasy baseball. It was just the second time that a catcher went 20/20 (Ivan Rodriguez in 1999). I think there is a real argument that Realmuto should be going in the middle of the second round, but I think his price will likely stay around the second turn considering how deep the catcher position is this year. 

Dalton Varsho (+6.76)- Varsho had a monster breakout in 2022 and a lot of it seems really pretty legitimate. He really benefits from the ability to play the outfield which means he will continue to collect more plate appearances than most catchers (he was second at the catcher position in 2022.) His only negative is the batting average which will likely bounce up and down like most players, but it is easy to see him joining Realmuto and Pudge as a 20/20 catcher here in the near future. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

William Contreras (+7.14)- Contreras is also coming off of a breakout season where he showed power and a fair amount of batting average. However, I am skeptical that the average stays where it is at. He ran hot with a .344 BABIP and his xBA was .243. I think he is more like a .250 hitter with 20-25 home runs considering he will share catching duties with Travis d’Arnaud and DH some. I still like him at his price, but there are a lot of really interesting options in that area. 

Sean Murphy (+8.87)- Murphy was quietly a really great catcher last season, but I think a lot of it was overlooked because of how bad Oakland was. He led all catchers in baseball with 612 plate appearances and was both fourth in runs and in RBIs. I don’t know how long he stays with the Athletics, but if he does, he will continue to play a ton between catching and DH and if or when he does get moved, he will move to a much better team and park. 

Keibert Ruiz (+8.45)- I think Ruiz is rising as he is one of the last guys of his tier before a pretty decent dropoff. However, I am not a huge fan. I think he will hit for average and chip in some stolen bases, but his swing has so little loft to it that he will struggle to hit home runs, even in a good park like Washington’s. The price isn’t bad, but I think it will continue to rise and I don’t know that the upside is there that many others think is. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

None

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Logan O’Hoppe (+44.15)- O’Hoppe is a really hot name right now in early drafts. He had a short cup of coffee with the Major League team, but it was only five games so there isn’t much to be taken from it. That being said, he has hit for average and power in the minor leagues and Max Stassi has not been able to stay healthy and struggled when he was healthy last year, so there seems like there could be an opening for O’Hoppe to become the top guy behind the plate. 

Jonah Heim (+24.94)- Heim had a really great start to the season where he hit 12 home runs with a .262 average in the first half, but then fell apart in the second half, hitting just .181 with four home runs. Part of the fall off was a huge dropoff in BABIP in the second half, but his first half BABIP was 50 points higher than his career BABIP, so he was likely getting lucky then too. I think he is probably a mix between the first half and second half which makes him a .230-.240 hitter with 15 home runs which is fine, but nothing special. 

Bo Naylor (+49.32)- Naylor is another popular name right now after making his debut in September as well. He definitely has pop, but the question is whether or not he will make enough contact to tap into it. He also isn’t a super strong defender which could limit his playing time. He could be this year’s Cal Raleigh, but I think there is a lot of risk in the profile. 

Eric Haase (+27.87)- Haase took a step back in 2022 as did a lot of Tigers with a deadened ball. Unfortunately, the Tigers also had enough outfielder that they didn’t let Haase play a ton out there (11 games) which limits his ability to rack up plate appearances. I don’t know why he is rising, but I am not super interested in him this year considering the other options available. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

None

 

Others of Note

Endy Rodriguez (+43.62)- Rodriguez is quickly becoming a very popular name in deeper leagues. On the positive side, Rodriguez has a fantastic hit tool, hitting .323 between three minor league levels last season. However, while he did pop 25 home runs in 2022, he hit 16 of them at high-A as a 21 year old and he doesn’t project to have a ton of power at the Major League level and the fact he will hit in PNC park makes it a bit harder as well. More importantly, I don’t know that the Pirates have any reason to bring him up early. They kept Oneil Cruz down last year until mid-June and Rodriguez only has had 23 plate appearances at AAA. I fully expect that Rodriguez will begin the year in AAA and likely doesn’t come up until middle of the summer which takes him off the board for me in most leagues. 

P.J. Higgins (+44.32)- I think Higgins’ rise has some to do with the ability he has to play multiple positions. He played first base and third base along with catcher last year and now with Willson Contreras gone, Higgins has the ability to really rack up the PAs. He isn’t very good in general, but as a third or fourth catcher, he is fine.