Can R.A. Dickey Repeat?
The emergence of R.A. Dickey as an ace-level pitcher made for one of the best stories in baseball. The 37-year-old knuckleballer had started to show promising signs in 2010, but everything finally came together last year. Six seasons after he started tinkering with the pitch, Dickey seemed to finally master the knuckleball. He was rewarded with the Cy Young award, and finished first overall in Zach Sanders’ pitcher rankings. While Dickey’s 2012 performance deserves to be celebrated, he actually comes with some risk.
One of the biggest things that could hold Dickey back next season is his age. Dickey will be 38-years-old next season, an age where most pitchers are on their way out of the league, not coming off award-winning performances. The other is the fact that his best pitch is the knuckleball. So few pitchers have shown the ability to master the pitch, so there has to be at least a bit of uncertainty with Dickey. Can he continue to display the strides he made with the knuckler last year, when he had a career-high strikeout rate and a career-low walk rate?
At the same time, though, his ability to throw the knuckleball should actually offset his old age. Most pitchers who throw the knuckleball typically age very well, pitching well into their 40s. With Dickey, age may not be something to worry about. Most knuckleball pitchers performed quite well during their age-38 seasons.
| Name | K% | BB% | ERA- | FIP- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch Leonard | 10.90% | 6.00% | 67 | 81 |
| Ted Lyons | 9.30% | 3.70% | 60 | 74 |
| Johnny Niggeling | 12.10% | 10.50% | 71 | 97 |
| Joe Niekro | 13.70% | 9.10% | 103 | 102 |
| Phil Niekro | 18.40% | 11.50% | 95 | 88 |
| Tom Candiotti | 12.00% | 6.50% | 116 | 117 |
| Charlie Hough | 15.20% | 9.30% | 89 | 108 |
| Tim Wakefield | 16.00% | 7.20% | 92 | 106 |
The chart shows the performance of all knuckleball pitchers who threw at least 150 innings during their age-38 seasons. For the most part, the results are pretty promising. Only Joe Niekro and Tom Candiotti finished with ERAs higher than league-average. Phil Niekro, Charlie Hough and Tim Wakefield were just under league-average, and the top three guys were far below the league-average. They all held up relative well past their age-38 seasons, too. All eight of these pitchers still managed to eclipse 150 innings during their age-40 seasons. Knuckleball pitchers do seem to age at a much slower rate than normal pitchers.
The biggest question facing Dickey is whether he can continue to display the gains he saw on his knuckleball last year. Outside of his age, there was nothing that really screamed “fluke” about his performance. Dickey had a 25.1 pitch value on the knuckleball, easily the best figure of his career. Players made less contact against him, and whiffed much more frequently. Expecting him to win another Cy Young would be asking a lot, but it does seem like he made strides last year.
For Dickey, that likely means that age really shouldn’t play a huge factor in how he will perform going forward. Normal aging patterns do not apply for knuckleball pitchers. Based on the performances of other knuckleballers, Dickey should remain effective next year. Dickey will likely be one of the top pitchers drafted in fantasy leagues. Don’t let the advanced age, and late breakout scare you, Dickey should continue to defy expectations.
Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.
Age doesn’t effect knuckleballers like conventional pitchers. Interesting thesis.
Re: age. Does the fact Dickey actually throw pretty hard for a knuckleballer cause you any concern? I mean, say he throws the thing at 85 instead of 87 mph….
I keep hearing that age doesn’t effect knuckleballers like other pitchers, but we also hear that Dickey isn’t like other knuckleballers in part because of an unprecedented “fast knuckler.” I understand that this is all venturing into the unknown, but is there any concern that Dickey’s age could have some effect on his fast knuckleball velocity? Or has this difference between his knuckleballs been overstated?
That’s a question I’m not sure anyone can answer. There’s basically no precedent for it. I’m encouraged overall by the strides he made last year, but it’s unclear how much his velocity helps in this case. Most pitchers can get by with a slower knuckleball, so losing some velocity might not matter as much. Honestly, though, it’s nearly impossible to give a definitive answer here.
I appreciate the concept that age doesn’t play the same role for Dickey as it does for other pitchers, but it most certainly is a factor. The man is 37 years old – a senior citizen by professional athlete standards. And as Rags stated, he throws a fastball version of his knuckler (in addition to mixing in a standard fastball). He may not have the velocity of other pitchers, but the relative affect on his arm is the same. When you throw as hard as you can while maintaining control, it wears your body out over time.
And don’t forget – Dickey may have only achieved prominence in recent years, but he’s been playing baseball and pitching just as long as his peers. Wear and tear doesn’t care about performance.
As a Mets fan, I love Dickey and what he’s accomplished. I think he’s definitely got repeat potential, but it would be foolish to think that at 37, he should get the same contract a 28-year-old version of himself would get.
Yeah he’s an avoid for me next year. He’ll be drafted as an ace #1 starter, and with that, you have to aim for reliability. He could well excel again next year, but there are just too many questions surrounding him for me to draft him as my first SP.
Another X-Factor: Dickey’s lack of a UCL. How does that come into play in terms of his longevity (or lack thereof)?
Yet another X-factor: RA Dickey is reportedly gay. Look how quickly Mike Piazza’s career tanked after he was labeled as such. Maybe better off if he is traded to San Fran?
thats a very ignorant assumption!! fyi, Dickey is married with 4 children and is a born again Christian…
kinda bummed i won’t be able to pick up his production off the waiver wire next year
How come no mention of Hoyt Wilhelm. NY Giants great knuckleballer ?
Yes kids there was three teams in NY once upon a time long long ago.
There’s too much junk and games in the article
“Most pitchers who throw the knuckleball typically age very well, pitching well into their 40s.”
Except, they don’t. ‘Well into ones 40s’ mean something like 44, 45, 46. Knuckleballers don’t do that, as a class. Chris also elides into the fatuous ‘150 inning’ standard late in the article. Effectiveness no longer matters, it’s only modest durability at issue when there’s a point to flog.