Buying Sleepers at a Discount

I considered titling this article “Buying Low on Sleepers.” But what is low? It feels more relative than the term discount. We have a general idea of what a player’s preseason market value was. Acquiring a player at less than said market value would be considered buying at a discount. So that’s what I’ll go with here, as the phrase “buying low” is generic advice that lacks the proper context to take action.

Yesterday, I commanded you to exercise patience with your roster, avoid the temptation to evaluate players using the tiny sample of four games, and, do nothing. The reality is, however, that there are a slew of fantasy owners who are either new to the hobby, have not stumbled across the brilliant writers at RotoGraphs just yet and will panic, or are veterans, and their personal nature is to be impatient and make spastic changes to their team(s) on a daily basis.

But after one week’s worth of games, can you really, truly take advantage of these owners? Yes, yes you can. Of course, I’m not talking about acquiring the Mike Trouts of the world, those top picks who just so happen to be hitting .200 at the moment, with two RBI, and nothing else. No, one week is far too early to have any shot at getting the elite at a discount.

Instead, that very man featured in the tweet I highlighted yesterday, Marcell Ozuna, is a prime example of the type of player to target. The preseason sleeper, if you will. Ozuna, like many sleepers, is young, didn’t perform well last season, and there are several reasons for optimism. He has some promising power upside and the friendlier fence distances at Marlins Park this year should help him achieve that upside. But as we found with the owner who tweeted at me, it’s clear that at least one person is panicking at his slow start, which as I type this, stands at a .143 average and pitiful .169 wOBA (update: he homered!).

The sleeper is a player we pay for in the hopes he exceeds expectations. Perhaps even “breaks out”. He usually doesn’t cost a whole lot in a draft or auction. Typically, such player doesn’t have a track record of actually performing at that level, at least in the Major Leagues. He hasn’t done it before.

So after a week, we are dying for some clue that we were right, and the player is indeed at the beginning stage of a season-long breakout. Even though it’s just the first week, it’s easy to convince yourself that you were wrong about your sleeper, the player will remain asleep, and he’s either droppable or a trade candidate to another foolish owner who still believes that sleeper is going to perform.

So these are precisely the types of players in which now would be a good time to start making your offers. You want some names, don’t ya? Here we go…

Brett Lawrie
Gerardo Parra
Domingo Santana
Byron Buxton
Ketel Marte
Marcus Semien
Brad Miller
Jorge Soler

Note that no comments accompany any of these names. That’s because my preseason forecasts remain. There’s not a whole lot of new to say about these players.

BUT! Of the names above, the only one that truly concerns me is Byron Buxton. I expressed some serious concerns heading into the final month last season about Buxton simply not being ready to succeed at the Major League level. So far, he has done nothing to make me feel any differently — he has struck out a ridiculous 11 times in 19 plate appearances, with no walks. Can you buy him at a discount? Probably! Do you really want to? Perhaps only if he’s literally free.

If you’re curious about my thoughts on the players I named above or any other specific players, comment me!