Buying and Selling Team U.S.A.

The 2017 World Baseball Classic has been riveting thus far. Many of the teams are loaded, and the players and fans have been wildly into it. Saturday’s game between the Dominican Republic and the United States was perhaps the greatest heavyweight match-up the game has ever seen. The lineups on both sides were absurd, and the game lived up to the hype. The Dominicans overcame a 5-0 deficit to win in dramatic style, 7-5.

The Dominican lineup could be the best ever, but the United States gives them a run for their money. Since the majority of FanGraphs readers are, presumably, American, and pulling for Team U.S.A., it struck me that it would be fun to analyze the roster from a fantasy perspective. Although many on the roster are undisputed stars, there are overrated players, players to avoid for other reasons, and potential bargains mixed in. Let’s get right into it, analyzing the starting position players on Team U.S.A.:

Catcher

Buy Buster Posey

Posey’s coming off his worst season at the plate, due in large part to a second half power outage. Despite the popular opinion that catchers wear down at a younger age and at a steeper rate than non-catchers, they don’t. Posey can probably be auctioned (or drafted) for significantly less (or later) than he has in the past, and he should be worth the investment.

Buy Jonathan Lucroy

The time to really buy low on Lucroy was last off-season, but he should still be a solid investment now. Despite a down 2015, Lucroy has a .352 wOBA over the last three seasons, comparable to Posey’s .358, and he plays in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball. He’s in a contract year, too, so he has extra incentive to stay healthy and perform at his best. For a substantially lower cost than Posey, Lucroy is arguably the more attractive option.

First Base

Sell Eric Hosmer

By mainstream baseball analysts, Hosmer is probably one of the most overrated players in the game. He has just a .331 wOBA and 107 wRC+ in his career — pedestrian numbers for a first baseman. While he has shown flashes of being a better hitter (.350 wOBA in 2013; .355 in 2015), there are much more reliable options at the price/draft position Hosmer is likely to command.

Buy Paul Goldschmidt

Goldschmidt is the whole package. He has a .401 wOBA and 152 wRC+ since 2013. Unlike Hosmer, Goldschmidt doesn’t have a platoon issue. While Hosmer is below-average against same-handed pitching, Goldschmidt wallops righties to the tune of a .378 wOBA, and he creams lefties with a 175 wRC+. The man is worth every penny.

Second Base

Buy Daniel Murphy

Murphy is perhaps still a bargain despite his legitimately monstrous 2016. He led the National League in slugging percentage and was second to only Joey Votto in wOBA and wRC+. Murphy should provide massive offensive output from the second base position, as he has clearly changed his game drastically to become the player he is today. Some owners are probably still not willing to bet that this is the real Daniel Murphy, and you should capitalize on their hesitance.

Sell Ian Kinsler

Kinsler hit 28 home runs in 2016, despite averaging 13.7 per year from 2013-15. He also had his second-best season in terms of WAR in 2016. However, Kinsler will be 35 this year, and both Steamer and ZiPS project roughly league average offensive performance in 2017. Paul Swydan recently wrote a thorough analysis about Kinsler’s sluggish projections. Proceed with caution.

Third Base

Pass on Nolan Arenado

Arenado is undeniably one of the top young players in the game. Over the last two seasons (675 plate appearances), Arenado has a .348 wOBA and 118 wRC+ on the road compared to a .410 wOBA and 126 wRC+ at home. While his road numbers are admittedly very good, at roughly the same cost it makes sense to invest in the superior offensive talent of Josh Donaldson (.372 road wOBA and 136 road wRC+ since 2015) or Kris Bryant (.361 road wOBA, 126 road wRC+ since 2015). If Bryant and Donaldson are not available, or if Arenado costs significantly less or drafts significantly later (both are doubtful), that’s when to buy Arenado. (Note: this analysis primarily concerns points leauges, in which certain stats, including RBI, are not counted.)

Shortstop

Sell Brandon Crawford

This is perhaps a surprising opinion. Normally, I would advocate in favor of scooping up an underrated shortstop who can hit, but I think Crawford is finally getting the recognition he deserves. Owners know that Crawford is reliably near-league-average offensively now, at least in terms of wRC+, so there’s probably not much of a bargain left. Crawford’s stock has, if anything, risen since the start of the WBC, and it may never be higher. Although I like Crawford’s skill-set, he plays in a terrible park for left-handed hitters, and because of that, he’ll likely never eclipse the .332 wOBA we saw in 2015. For the cost, there are more impactful and higher upside options available.

Outfield

Buy Christian Yelich

After three straight years of an identical 118 wRC+, and wOBA totals of .341, .341, and .343, Yelich broke out of his solid and uncanny consistency with 21 home runs (his previous career high was nine), a .367 wOBA, and a 130 wRC+. Yelich is just 25, and he’s raking in the WBC. Now may be one of the last times to buy Yelich at a price somewhat indicative of his good-not-great 2013-15 numbers, because if he comes anywhere near repeating his 2016 totals (and there’s reason to think he will), Yelich is a superstar and one of the very best offensive outfielders in baseball.

Buy Andrew McCutchen

2016 was McCutchen’s worst season by a mile. Before 2016, McCutchen had a .382 wOBA and 144 wRC+ in his career. From 2012-15, he had a .397 wOBA and 157 wRC+. Entering 2017, McCutchen is still just 30 years old, and since 2010, he’s averaged 154.6 games played per season. Even if McCutchen is never again as great as he once was, he’s still immensely valuable if he comes anywhere close. Pounce on this rare opportunity to buy low on a phenominal hitter.

Sell Adam Jones

If Eric Hosmer is the most overrated player on Team U.S.A., Adam Jones is a close second. Despite collecting a couple of big hits in the United States’ win against Colombia, including the one that ended it, Jones has been roughly a league-average hitter in his career. Over the last three seasons, Jones’ .331 wOBA is equivalent to that of Carlos Gomez and Denard Span. Jones did have three very good seasons from 2012-14 (.350 wOBA, 120 wRC+), but the same can be said of Gomez and Span. Buy accordingly.

Buy Giancarlo Stanton

Stanton has a .380 wOBA and 141 wRC+ in his career. Over the last five years, however, he’s averaged just 115.4 games per season, and over the last two he’s averaged just 96.5. Stanton is only 27 years old, and he’s obviously healthy enough to compete in the WBC (although he has yet to do any damage and has swung and missed a lot). Stanton is currently being auctioned and drafted at a discounted rate, so now is the time to buy.