Bullpen Report: March 17, 2015

• Last time we saw you, Marcus Stroman’s ACL was still intact. That is no longer than case, and the Jays suddenly have a big need to fill holes in their rotation. Why is this news in the Bullpen Report? Well, a favorite sleeper of ours, Aaron Sanchez, seems significantly more likely to open 2015 in the rotation than a week ago. The good news for the Jays? Brett Cecil is back throwing after some minor shoulder inflammation. If all goes well, he may see game action by the end of this week, which would almost assure he’ll open the season as Toronto’s ninth inning man barring setbacks. Keep an eye out for velocity readings from side sessions and game situations. If Cecil’s fastball is sitting around 92-93 mph and touching 94-95, it’ll be a welcome sign his minor shoulder issues were just that. As primarily a fastball-curve guy, he’ll need the juice to succeed. If the velocity is down, it could just be early season dead arm, but given the shoulder, it might be enough to knock him down my rankings.

• One of my favorite “not a closer, but maybe a closer” guys headed into this season is Adam Ottavino. The righty has steadily improved each year in the big leagues, culminating with a 2.61 SIERA and 20% K%-BB% in 2014. While LaTroy Hawkins seems safe to open the season as the ninth inning guy, the fact that he’s 42 is scary and his four-year increasing fly ball trend and plummeting K% seem to be huge red flags for a Coors reliever. Ottavino actually put up a better xFIP in Colorado last year than on the road, and his swing and miss stuff is the best way to combat his home park’s spaciousness. The righty’s one blemish might be his difficulty with opposing lefties (.405 wOBA last year), but a near .400 BABIP against seems to imply there’s some room for rebound there. It doesn’t hurt when your manager is in your corner, either.

• Arizona closer Addison Reed is racing to be ready for the season opener. The righty has modified his mechanics to try and alleviate some of the shoulder woes that plagued him this spring. He’s actually going back to an older release, stepping more directly towards home plate while minimizing the amount of “sling” he uses to deliver his pitches. While it’s always tricky to read into these kind of stories during the spring, it wasn’t long ago Reed was an elite stopper prospect, putting up 35+% K% at every step of the minor league ladder. Since his first full season (2012), his peripherals like SIERA haven’t been bad, but they haven’t been the show-stopping marks people expected. The good news? The rates have trended the right direction the last three years, culminating in his best big league season in 2014. If healthy, he seems like a nice bet to outperform his draft position, and a dash of what made him successful as a younger pitcher may help a bit, too.

• Working their way back from injury: Glen Perkins is working his way back from a sore oblique and hopes to get in a couple games later this week. Obliques are tricky, but no one seems concerned about his availability. Antsy owners in deep leagues could handcuff him with Brian Duensing or Casey Fien, but both are low-upside options in the event Perkins needs more time. Jake McGee threw pitches off a mound for the first time this spring. While a positive sign, he still shouldn’t be expected back until mid-April at the absolute earliest (likely later than that). It’s tough to pin down what the Rays will do with the ninth inning, so don’t invest too heavily in any one particular guy (although Brad Boxberger’s unreal whiff numbers should help you no matter what inning he is pitching in).

• Quick hits: Koji Uehara apparently pulled a hammy running around before Boston’s St. Patrick’s Day tilt this afternoon. He’s going to be sidelined a few days and the team says the injury is minor. That said, he’s almost 40 and the season is only a couple weeks away. I’m moving him to the back of his tier. Francisco Rodriguez is finally in camp. While he’s another year older and his fastball velocity continues to tick down, he’s nonetheless put up solid punchout rates and his 2014 SIERA was his lowest in 10 years (a decade!). He’s being undervalued among closers, coming off the board 23rd among relievers.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]