Bullpen Report: June 9, 2017
Tony Watson’s tumultuous reign as the Pirates’ closer has come to an end. Clint Hurdle announced on Friday that he was removing Watson, who blew each of his last four save chances, from the role and handing it to Felipe Rivero and Juan Nicasio.
Why the tandem closers? Back on Wednesday, Hurdle had explained his decision to retain Watson as closer at that point, saying that he did not want to move Rivero out of a setup role, because he envisioned him as the Pirates’ answer to Andrew Miller. The Pirates’ manager also
noted that he had considered Nicasio as a possible replacement for Watson. So for the time being, Hurdle will afford himself the luxury of using his reliever with the highest average leverage index (besides Watson) in situations other than the ninth inning, since he has Nicasio as a second closing alternative.
While Rivero isn’t quite on the level of Miller, he has the makings of a shutdown closer. He has spotless control, a 15.3 percent swinging strike rate and a 30.3 percent soft contact rate that is the eighth-highest in the majors. Rivero doesn’t have to rely on PNC Park for a low home run rate, as he is getting grounders at a 64.0 percent clip. His changeup had already been a good pitch for inducing ground balls, but Rivero is getting grounders at a 63.8 percent rate this season on his four-seamer after posting a 47.3 percent rate in 2016.
Nicasio could pitch well enough to remain in the closer picture or possibly even take over as the sole closer, if Hurdle was so inclined to go that route, but I could just as easily see him pitching his way back into a lower-leverage role. He is locating in the strike zone at a 49.7 percent rate and has yet to allow a home run this season, but he is allowing contact at a healthy 79.8 percent rate. Furthermore, Nicasio is allowing hard contact at a 34.7 percent rate. In leagues where saves are not extremely scarce, I would still find it worthwhile to add Rivero, but I would not make a special effort to pick up Nicasio.
There wasn’t much that was noteworthy for relievers on the mound on Friday. One of the routine occurrences was Seung Hwan Oh nailing down a save, his 14th of the season for the Cardinals. Remember the concern we had over him early in the season? Since April 21, Oh is 12 of 13 in save opportunities with an 0.84 ERA and a 10.1 K/9 ratio.
Brandon Maurer got back on track after allowing four runs and getting no outs in a non-save situation versus the Diamondbacks on Thursday. Entering the ninth inning with no outs and runners on first and second on Friday, Maurer loaded the bases by allowing a Salvador Perez single. However, a sacrifice fly and a double play later, he and the Padres escaped with a 6-3 win over the Royals.
One night after Jacob Barnes was saddled with a loss, having failed to retire any of the five batters he faced, Brewers manager Craig Counsell entrusted him with a hold opportunity against the Diamondbacks. However, instead of pitching the eighth inning, as had become the norm for him, Barnes came in for the seventh with one out and runners on first and second. He walked two batters and allowed one of his inherited runners to score on a sacrifice fly, but he did not allow a run. Then Carlos Torres came in to get the first two outs of the eighth inning, providing the bridge to Corey Knebel’s four-out save. Barnes has thrown only 24 of 47 pitches for strikes over his last three appearances, so owners in holds leagues may need to think about sitting or replacing him.
In his first-ever relief appearance, Kenta Maeda earned a save. He did it the hard way, piggybacking on Rich Hill in a four-inning appearance, allowing one run (a Joey Votto solo homer) on three hits and no walks with six strikeouts.
Welcome back to the big leagues, Tyler Cloyd! In his first appearance since Sept. 29, 2013 (as a Phillie), Cloyd pitched a scoreless seventh inning for the Mariners, getting credit for the win over the Blue Jays. Cloyd began the season with Somerset of the independent Atlantic League.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
Al Melchior has been writing about Fantasy baseball and sim games since 2000, and his work has appeared at CBSSports.com, BaseballHQ, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster and FanRagSports. He has also participated in Tout Wars' mixed auction league since 2013. You can follow Al on Twitter @almelchiorbb and find more of his work at almelchior.com.
Do you think there’s any chance Watson gets the job back? I have him in a 12 team standard h2h, wondering if he’s droppable or worth waiting out (I’m in first place at the moment so I don’t need the roster spot urgently).
You should hold Watson for a few reasons, 1. He is an injury away from closing again, 2. Managers seems to have dementia when it comes to closers – they always revert back to bad habits meaning Watson will get another shot at the 9th without a doubt and 3. financial reasons for the club NOT to use their best option to close out games which is Rivero.
Without knowing much else about your league, like specifically who’s available, Watson is still almost certainly droppable. In a 5×5 league, he’s slow death, contributing next to nothing in any category. Managers rarely revert back to mediocre closers who have lost their job through poor performance. Francisco Rodriguez, Jeanmar Gomez, Tony Cingrani and Steve Cishek all had more saves than Watson’s 15 in 2016; Brad Boxberger, Shawn Tolleson, Drew Storen, John Axford &c. &c. all recorded more than 15 in 2015. The best are now good setup men. Whereas those most similar to Watson are no longer fantasy relevant.
Watson was dime a dozen, only valuable for his role, and that value’s all but gone. He’s not only surely behind Nicasio and Rivero, he could be behind Daniel Hudson, and soon, Wade LeBlanc, Josh Lindblom–Watson has the worst FIP, and second worst xFIP of anyone currently in the pen. He’s not a good pitcher. He was the lucky beneficiary of the Mark Melancon trade. Don’t focus on Rivero. If Pittsburgh wants a low-cost, mediocre reliever to close games, it has several options other than Watson.
If, because of an irrational judgment by Clint Hurdle, Watson does regain the job, the upside is a one category pitcher with almost no job security. Especially in a head to head league, where even two good closers is likely to keep you competitive week to week, Watson is a low-probability stash whose upside is a bottom-tier closer for a bad team.
Several players, including Tommy Kahnle, Arodys Vizcaino, Joakim Soria and Pat Neshek are all pretty widely available, contribute to varying degrees in three to four categories–in roto leagues, never underestimate stud relievers who earn a few wins over the season while pitching under 100 innings–and each likely has a clearer path to becoming their team’s closer. Should any of them make it (and Neshek has been called his team’s closer by manager Pete Mackanin), they’ll be a better closer than Watson, and therefore likely have better job security.
Maybe every other good candidate to close in your league is taken. Maybe, also, you are really desperate for saves. Otherwise, drop Watson. Don’t imitate irrational behavior attempting to anticipate irrational behavior.