Bullpen Report: June 9, 2013
• Jim Henderson is over his groin issues as he was activated off the disabled list early this morning. Ron Roenicke wasted no time getting him a little action, having him follow Kyle Lohse’s eight innings in today’s drubbing of the Phillies. It’s hard to argue that a healthy Henderson isn’t the best pitcher (currently) in the Brewers pen, but Francisco Rodriguez has a 0.87 ERA since resurfacing a month ago. A lot of that is buoyed by a .130 BABIP and a perfect strand rate, but his 3.84 xFIP doesn’t portend imminent implosion. Roenicke has been pretty coy about the ninth inning situation; I’d expect Henderson to get it back eventually but with K-Rod pitching well and sitting on 298 career saves (apparently people like round numbers?) you shouldn’t drop either guy until someone comes out and gets two-to-three save opportunities in a row.
• Ugly outing for Padres fill-in closer Luke Gregerson at Coors this afternoon, as he coughed up a three-run lead. He managed to keep the game tied, but Colorado walked off in the tenth while facing Tyson Ross. The hiccup was unfortunate for Gregerson, who saw his ERA double from 0.91 to 1.78. His xFIP is right in line with last year, when he was one of the better setup men in baseball, so his owners shouldn’t panic — he should still see the next save opportunity for the Friars. I am a bit concerned about 3% drop in K% and a 4% drop in SwStr% (from 15% to 11%) from 2012 to 2013, but he should continue to be effective as long as he remains stingy with the free passes.
• Joaquin Benoit notched save number three on the season as the Tigers took their series with the Indians. While this Bullpen Report author isn’t the biggest fan of Jose Valverde, this doesn’t signal any fundamental shift for Jim Leyland; Papa Grande had a fairly stressful ninth yesterday and was just catching a breather in a three-run game. Valverde has shown a bit of a pulse lately, as well, with improved velocity and an uptick in strikeouts. Benoit should be held as a nice option for holds and a saves handcuff, but it’ll take a decent number of ugly outings from Detroit’s current ninth inning man before he sees consistent opportunities.
• Mariano Rivera racked up save number 23. I know a lot of fans like to see future hall-of-famers go out on top, but part of me wishes he’d keep pitching for another 10 years, just because I’m curious to see how long he could be elite. Who couldn’t see him catching young-20-something lefties looking in his 50’s?
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.
I expect Henderson to get the job back, once K-Rod gets his two saves. Roenicke has pretty much stated that’s his intention.
I’m chalking up the Gregerson outing to being Coors field, but it does make me a bit nervous he struggled in his first save chance against the Jays and now has this bomb.
I know this has nothing to do with bullpens, but if you are looking at putting the player in your Utility slot, would you rather have Rendon or Wil Myers? I currently own Rendon, Myers is floating around the free agent pool… or do I drop Rendon for Wheeler? He is also available.
If position isn’t a factor I’d go Myers, but obviously Rendon’s expected production at 2B adds an extra premium to his value
I’d rather have Myers, especially if the rumors about his impending promotion are true.
Although Wheeler is also tempting. Depends on what you need.
Rendon has MI value, but in a UTIL slot I don’t see him as more than “eh.”
What do you think of dropping K-Rod for McLouth in a standard 5×5 league? My RPs are Papelbon, Rodney, Mujica and Veras, my OF is Heyward, B.J. Upton, Nick Swisher, Shane Victorino, Josh Reddick and Brett Gardner.
I’d rather hold with K-Rod, but it really depends on how you are in SV. Papelbon and Mujica are fairly safe in their roles but Rodney and Veras are no slam dunk to rack up 15+ more saves from here on out.
I like McLouth as a complimentary piece, but I see him more as a fantasy replacement level type unless you are in a deep league.
Alright. I’m only in a 10 teamer, so I’ll see how my Saves shake out before making a move.
Either Wheeler or Myers is better as long as you don’t need the stats this week. Myers, Wheeler, Rendon is how I’d rank them. I’m not really understanding the Rendon love. His upside is a Matt Carpenter type. I love Carpenter, but he’s not an impact guy. Rendon is not a 20HR kinda talent, nor is he a SB guy. Myers comp has always been Bruce. So would you rather have Bruce or Matt Carpenter?
Rendon getting 2B eligibility is a huge factor there. And honestly, Bruce and Carpenter might not be as far apart as you think this year – you can’t ignore the huge value of Carp in the runs and AVG categories, in addition to the crazy position flexibility. But I agree, Rendon isn’t a huge needle-mover for me.
FYI: you have carter Capps listed as first behind Wilhelmsen. That is no longer accurate. He has not been used in an 8th inning hold situation since May 16. Either Furbush or Medina has been used instead.
I just don’t think Furbush is ever going to get saves on the M’s. He seemed like a candidate last year (low xFIP, League struggling) and they bypassed him for Wilhelmsen.
Over the last 30 days, Capps is only a tick behind Furbush/Medina in gmLI, so even if he’s not being used exclusively as Mariano Rivera to John Wetteland circa mid-90’s, he’s still getting high leverage work.
He’s still the upside play behind Wilhelmsen, especially in keeper leagues. Best xFIP/SwStr% rates in that pen.
How safe would you think Parnell is lately given his last couple of weeks? He seems to be in a funk.
I think safe because there’s no one to replace him even if he’s terrible.
He actually hasn’t been any different lately as far as stuff goes. His BABIP over the last 2 weeks is north of .600, so there’s just some batted ball issues at play.
Not worried.
Do you think it’s more trouble than it’s worth holding onto Gregerson if I already own Kimbrel, Chapman, Mujica & Bailey? I know that’s crazy RP depth but my league counts both K/9 and IP, so every inning helps and if a guy is getting Saves, might as well use that RP. Will he hurt more than help, you think? Or keep him around?
How deep is the league?
He shouldn’t hurt you, but the question is whether his marginal help is worth tying up the roster spot. Honestly, I’d try to package him+SP to one of the bottom three SV teams for a marginal upgrade at SP.
I like doing things like swinging a low ERA/high FIP SP plus a little sweetener (ex: Gregerson) for a proven guy who may have had a bad month w/r/t BABIP/LOB%.
Same works if you want to move up from tier 4 to tier 3 with your LF.
League is 10 teams
Excellent use of the verb form of portend.
Gregerson pitched 7 times in 10 days, you’re begging for trouble doing that.
I’ve got Henderson but Huston Street is currently a free agent. Keep Henderson or swap for Street? I’m more interested in end-of-the-year performance, since it looks likely I’ll make the playoffs in my league.