Bullpen Report: June 5, 2016
Well, the Houston situation just got interesting. A.J. Hinch said they will are going to use multiple guys to close games. In other words, they are going to use fantasy players favorite term and have committee closers. This is the day after Luke Gregerson blew his fifth save of the season giving up a game-tying homer to Jed Lowrie. In today’s game, Will Harris was given the save opportunity and pitched a clean ninth tallying one strikeout. Gregerson’s K’s are in line with his career norms, but his walks are up and his ERA sits at 4.56, which is a career high. There is still hope he can earn the role back as his FIP is 3.16, which is higher than his career FIP (2.99), but not by much. Though he has struggled pretty mightily in May, so taking this weight off his shoulders may help him right the ship. Harris has been absurd this year posting a 0.34 ERA (1.40 FIP) with improvements in his K% and BB% from last year and his career. Ken Giles may have been called on to close the 9th tonight, but he pitched two scoreless innings last night so he was due the night off. Hinch has indicated that he will use all three guys, and will even throw Michael Feliz into the mix as well.
On Friday, Darren O’Day was placed on the 15-day DL with a hamstring strain. Doesn’t seem like it will be a long stint, but it appears that Mychal Givens will be in next in line behind Zach Britton, though Brad Brach will certainly get some chances. This weekend may have fooled you a bit as T.J. McFarland pitched in the two wins this weekend, earning himself a win on Friday, with Brad Brach seeing no action. McFarland is a lefty and seemed to match up better this weekend, but with the way Brach has pitched (0.91 ERA, 2.28 FIP) and the high K% (27.2) accompanied by a lower BB% (7%), I see him getting more high leverage situations moving forward, along with more holds as he is currently sitting at 7. Givens has also looked strong this season, and even though it’s never good losing a guy like O’Day, the middle of the Orioles pen should be able to hold things down in the 8th until he gets back.
Huston Street earned his first save since being activated off the DL on Monday. He ended the 8th well getting the final out, but had some trouble in the 9th. After giving up a one-out walk to Gregory Polanco, Street gave up a double to Jung Ho Kang and then intentionally walked Starling Marte to get to Sean Rodriguez. Street was able to get the necessary double-play to end the game, getting his 6th save of the year. The K’s are way down for Street this year, as has been his overall velocity. This does not mean he can’t be trusted, but I would certainly tread lightly. When healthy, he is in no doubt the 9th inning guy for the Angels, but I’m worried about some collapses moving forward. He has a 0.90 ERA over 10 innings, but his FIP is 4.82. Those K’s need to come back for me to have more confidence in him.
Quick notes: Jonathan Papelbon earned his 15th save, but struggled giving up two hits and two walks (one intentional) that led to a run. Thankfully for him, the Nationals were up two and the one didn’t hurt them. Sam Dyson is really embracing the closer’s role earning his 7th save today, and also pitched a scoreless inning on Friday to drop his ERA to 1.95 (2.80 FIP). Ryan Madson took the loss on Saturday, after giving up a run in extra innings of a tie game. The typically reliable Tony Watson has struggled recently giving up a total of 7 runs in his last 3 outings. His ERA has skyrocketed to 4.50 (5.04 FIP), and could lose his 8th inning role if this continues.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
Who are you targeting between Giles and Harris?
The author does a good job of describing the situation in Houston, but doesn’t give us an actionable recommendation of which direction to point our bow, which is what we want from an expert. Most of us don’t have unlimited bench spots, so what’s the recommendation here, realizing that the situation in murky?
I mean he pretty much explains whats up and I don’t think a recommendation can be made that provides anything more than an educated guess. Giles is the name brand, the guy they paid alot for, so you’d think he’d be the long-term option but he has yet to really be his dominant self (though much better recently)…Harris has sure been amazing this year (longest scoreless streak in MLB) and was great last year as well.
If you are picking 1 guy for immediate saves, I’d go Harris both because of that aforementioned dominance and because he got the save tonight. But can anyone really provide a better recommendation when the manager straight up says he’s gunna be trying them all?
The Mariners DFA’d Joel Peralta. Vincent or Edwin Diaz probably go in his spot on the chart.
Give it time–they still have Blake Treinen as the 1st in Line guy in the Nats’ bullpen, which clearly hasn’t been the case for a while. 😉
It won’t be Diaz, he just got jumped up from AA and wasn’t even the closer for that team. He has the skills but was just converted to RP this year and hasn’t thrown a pitch above AA. Vincent or Nuno is most likely to slip in behind Benoit, with my money on Vincent.
I have to wonder: is it time to just plain drop Jepsen? Due to some horrible management, I am stuck with only Ramos and Jepsen as closers.
Jepsen came into a tie game in the 9th today and promptly gave up 2 runs to lose the game. I looked up his recent numbers: Jepsen has now given up at least 1 hit in 15 consecutive appearances. He has given up runs in 8 of those apperances and multiple runs in 5 of them. Over those 15 appearances, here are his relevant numbers: 14.1 IP, 24 H, 9 K, 5 BB, 4 HR and a messy 7.53 ERA. Yuck, that’s horrible
However Jepsen is a closer. Other than the stray one-off, you can’t get saves without a closer and Jepsen, for better or worse, is a closer. Over the last 30 days (not including today), Jepsen has 5 saves. That’s more than Kimbrel, Robertson, Cody Allen and Trevor Rosenthal among others. (It’s worth noting that Jepsen is tied with Tony Cingrani who has been equally miserable and maybe there’s a lesson there.)
I’m really torn on whether to keep him because I have no other options or to take a flyer on somebody who MIGHT become a closer and doesn’t suck so bad
In my H2H league, I was stuck with ONLY Jepsen (have G Perkins) and decided to part ways with him over a month ago—couldn’t take the ratio hit and a single crappy closer wasn’t going to win me many weeks regardless. I’m currently rostering all of Will Harris, Ken Giles, Will Smith and am hopeful someone emerges from that group to at least give me something by the time playoffs roll around (we use K/9 so these relievers at least a boost there in meantime).
I think depends a bit on both your league type and your current place in standings. In ROTO, you may not be able to afford falling too far back in saves and keeping Jepsen around may be worth it. In H2H, I’d be more willing to sac saves (though, you’d at least have hope to win a week or so even with only a single guy) if you believe you can maintain good playoff standings—and hope to find something better by the time the playoffs roll around.
Mark Lowe has been demoted to mop up duty in Detroit and he’s doing his best to get fired from even that. It looks like Shane Greene will be taking over the RH setup role.
Thoughts on where Raisel Iglesias will fit in the Reds pen? As there are really not any pitchers currently that they would want in a high leverage situation, could he sneak into that closer role? Interested as an owner who is disappointed by the Reds’ decision but trying to find a silver lining, and also in trading for him before other managers get over the news.
When a closer loses a job, managers frequently talk about committees, and trying a number of different guys, but almost invariably if the guy they try first does a good job he runs away with it and the whole multiple guys in the role thing never really happens. That would lean strongly toward Harris, except that Giles might genuinely have been unavailable last night after having pitched two innings the night before so it is still possible that they intend to give the job to Giles and Harris was just a placeholder last night.
With Giles having had last night off and Harris now having pitched two days in a row, today would be a perfect opportunity to get a save opportunity for Giles, assuming they can get one against the very hot Texas Rangers. If, on the other hand they go back to Harris tonight, then ignore the noise, and Harris has the job, at least until he loses it days, weeks, months or years from now.