Bullpen Report: June 24, 2014

• Robin Ventura said that Ronald Belisario was still his guy even after giving up last night’s bomb to Chris Davis. With Chicago heading into the ninth with a three-run lead, was he true to his word? Well, sort of. Belisario did end up notching the save, but only after Scott Downs began the inning. Of course, Downs (a noted lefty killer) was there to face Chris Davis (a noted Belisario killer) so it was likely just a matchups ploy. After Downs allowed Davis to reach, Ventura brought in his closer who allowed the inherited runner to score, but otherwise escaped with no additional damage (and the save!).

While the righty’s 5.35 ERA is ugly, the 2.81 SIERA is much less so. Belisario’s .319 BABIP is a bit higher than expected and he’s really been beaten up with runners on (55% LOB%). His 18% K% isn’t anything special but he’s only allowing free passes at a 5% clip. While the K/BB ratio is good, the fact that they are low tends to increase the chance of results that occasionally ignore skill. Belisario can hold down the job in a weak pen, but needs to be better in the here and now (perhaps he could just use a little positive regression).

• Mark Melancon allowed another couple of runs tonight, making it the second outing he’s made Pirates fans nervous with a multi-run lead. Of course, the Pittsburgh righty still owns a 2.25 SIERA so don’t go pressing the “accept” button on that lowball Edward Mujica offer you just got. If anything, these couple of hiccups should make Melancon a nice buy-low target from an owner who is saying “man, this guy is killing my rates!” I’m not quite sold on the notion that Jason Grilli is long gone in this bullpen, but Melancon has top-12 closer upside if he can keep the gig for the rest of the season.

• Those waiting in deep leagues on Jesse Crain… well… you can wait longer. Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow was quoted on Tuesday as saying he doesn’t “have a timeframe.” He also wins an award for one of the more Captain Obvious quotes of the year with “I think right now since we’re in the middle of June you would have to assume that him coming back in June is probably not going to happen.” Crain has pushed back his return from biceps surgery multiple times this season, so there’s no reason to think it’s imminent. Chad Qualls has serious job security at this point.

• Quick hits: Jonathan Papelbon notched another save. Fantasy owners only care about results, but his xFIP-ERA split (4.37-1.48) and decreased velocity make him a big sell-high candidate if you can get a decent nibble. Kenley Jansen polished off another Clayton Kershaw gem with a couple punchouts. Yawn. Casey Janssen picked up a “W” after keeping a tie game tied in the top of the ninth while his home Blue Jays won it in the bottom of the frame.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]