Bullpen Report: August 12, 2013
• Mariano Rivera got the day off today after a recent stretch that’s seen him blow his last three saves in a row. Trying to finish off a 2-0 gem by Hiroki Kuroda, Boone Logan came in to start the ninth and put a runner on first with one out for David Robertson. Even with a two-run lead, Robertson didn’t make things easy on himself, walking Mike Trout and giving up a bloop double to Josh Hamilton. With Trout acting as the tying run on third, the Yankees setup man intentionally walked Erick Aybar to load the bases before making Mark Trumbo and Chris Nelson look absolutely foolish on swinging strikeouts to end the game.
While tonight was a bit rocky, D-Rob is the heir apparent in New York following Rivera’s already-announced retirement at the end of the season. His 2.33 SIERA is right in line with his last two years and his BB% has continued to trend downwards. His K% has taken a bit of a hit this year, but his velocity isn’t way off and his SwStr% is right in line with his career norms so there isn’t a whole lot to worry about. There are no setup men I’d rather have in keeper/dynasty formats. If you are out of the race and have some pieces to auction off as you retool for next year, he makes an excellent acquisition target.
• Casey Janssen came in in a non-save situation (tie game) and, boy, he wasn’t a fan. After taking the bump in the top of the ninth of a 1-1 contest, Janssen didn’t head back to the dugout until the Athletics had scratched four runs across to take what eventually was confirmed to be an insurmountable lead. Janssen’s 2.89 SIERA is not quite as good as last year’s 2.42, but it’s plenty predictive of an above-average closer. A quick glance at the splits doesn’t raise any serious red flags — his xFIP is up and K’s are down a bit in August, but we’re talking four innings of sample size. His velocity (while more erratic than the average pitcher) seems fairly stable, even if it is down a bit from last year. I’m still not worried from a peripheral standpoint, especially since main competition Sergio Santos is still working back after his latest elbow injury, but don’t forget that Janssen himself is dealing with a shoulder that’s “not at full strength.” It’s something to watch as the season drags into its last couple of months.
• Is Aroldis Chapman back? After hitting a stretch from mid-June to the beginning of August that saw him put up a 5.84 ERA with a sub 3:1 K:BB ratio, Chapman has turned on the jets. After a 1-2-3 ninth with three punchouts tonight, the Cuban lefty has now recorded 12 of his last 15 outs via the “K” while not walking a single batter during that timeframe. Chapman’s 1.83 SIERA (coming into tonight) is not quite as good as it was last year, but a sub-2.00 mark combined with the same number of strikeouts as some starters keeps him planted squarely with Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen in my top tier of ninth-inning relievers.
• The Rays acquired middle reliever Wesley Wright for cash considerations early Monday. Moving to a better team, Wright should see a slight uptick in value in holds leagues, but will be leaving a bullpen where he at least had a chance to scab some saves. Perhaps the biggest fantasy implication is that Josh Fields and Josh Zeid have one less warm body to battle with in the mess that is the ‘Stros pen.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.
Ziegler seems to have at least earned a yellow-line distinction. I get that he’s 2-3 bad outings away from being replaced, and likely always will be this year. Yet in the 13 games pitched since his 1st save as the “closer,” he’s 1-0, 7-for-7 in save chances, 0.00 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 7/3 K/BB. Yes, he doesn’t strike out a lot of guys, but he doesn’t walk many at all either and he just seems to know how to “get the job done.” His seasonal L/R splits aren’t that drastic either. He dominates righties and he’s prolly slightly above average against lefties. Plus, it’s not as of Putz or Bell has been lights out exactly this year.
I have more confidence in Ziegler than I do in a situation like Milwaukee, Toronto, or Cleveland. I look at it as how many bad games it would take for the guy to lose his job. And then combine that with whose behind the guy. JJ Putz and Heath Bell are both not very good pitchers at this point. Putz is streaky and injury prone. Bell is flat out awful(though he does seem to have some immeasurable amount of grit). At least in Toronto, Santos is a former closer who was pretty dominant when healthy; Cleveland hopes is Cody Allen is their future closer. Plus Perez is average at best. And in Milwaukee, Axford has looked good at times.
Ok, I’m done ranting.
He blew a save as you were typing that. lol
Thanks for the comment. Yes, but we can’t dismiss some of the concerns about Ziegler out of hand like that.
The lack of K’s for a RP can be problematic b/c it opens them up to BABIP fluctuations (the more balls put in play, the larger the standard deviation of outcomes becomes.
As far as the L/R splits, Ziegler has been about league average against LHH this year (.312 wOBA) but that comes in 96 PAA, a number which is far too small to throw out his .362 career wOBA against (575 PAA) in lieu of.
Last night was a nice example of a way Ziegler can be exploited in the ninth. After Wieters (hitting lefty) grounds out, team calls back righty and pinch hits lefty who rips a single, the lefty Roberts walks, the lefty McLouth singles, the lefty Markakis hits a deep sac fly.
He may be as good as Putz/Bell in the aggregate, but there’s a wasted opportunity cost moving his GB and RH-killer arm from the middle innings where he can come in with men on base.