Bullpen Report: August 1, 2016
Yesterday was (obviously) deadline day and there was thankfully lots of action. I hope you enjoyed hitting refresh on your Twitter account as much as I did.
• Brewers GM David Stearns was very active, trading two of the three relievers that were rumored in trades in Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith. Jeremy Jeffress is heading to Texas, and while I don’t think he will supplant Sam Dyson right away I am going to make the Rangers situation yellow, showing some caution. There wasn’t anyone knocking on the door too loudly behind Dyson earlier but now there is Jeffress.
Will Smith is headed to San Francisco and although he often threw in the eighth for Milwaukee it remains to be seen how Bochy will use him. Sergio Romo, Hunter Strickland and Derek Law are all capable behind Santiago Casilla (and in some cases maybe even better) and Smith will be deployed as a late inning lefty but I’ll wait to see how it plays out before changing the grid. With so many right handed options, it’s unlikely Smith would see consistent saves if Casilla was replaced as well.
As for Milwaukee their entire situation is different with Tyler Thonburg manning the ninth inning now. Thornburg has been the Brewers best reliever all year with a 2.32/2.95/3.05 ERA/FIP/xFIP and now he will be netting you saves instead of holds. His 34.9% strikeout rate is 10th in the league among relievers and if he wasn’t already owned in your league (he should have been), I would rush to the waiver wire. I’ve added Corey Knebel and Carlos Torres behind Thornburg on the gird below. Neither are particularly attractive options but Knebel throws hard (94.6 mph) and has always posted fantastic strikeout rates throughout his minor league career and brief stints in the majors. If he can keep his walks in check, he’d be an intriguing look for NL-Only leagues or holds leagues.
• Fernando Abad was traded by the Twins to the Red Sox for Pat Light who could see the grid at some point in his future, but not quite yet. Brandon Kintzler remained on the Twins so expect him to continue to get whatever saves come Minnesota’s way. In Abad’s place I’ve added Trevor May back to the grid. His ERA is still over 5 but the peripheral numbers and strikeouts still indicate greener pastures ahead since his most recent call up he’s been quite effective.
• In Boston, Abad should be a solid left handed option but he shouldn’t be sniffing too many ninths, especially with Craig Kimbrel off of the DL now. Kimbrel hasn’t been as dominant as his time in Atlanta and (briefly) San Diego but he remains a premier closer and should get plenty of opportunities here on out in Boston. He looked like his old bad self last night, striking out three batters for his 18th save. Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa should continue to set up with Abad seeing tough lefties. Koji Uehara remains on the DL and unfortunately he might not be returning this season.
• Huston Street had a forgettable Sunday but one that will be somewhat memorable for the Red Sox. With a two-run lead in the ninth, Street ended up allowing five runs and two homers, blowing the lead. Street now has a 6.45/6.40/5.94 ERA/FIP/xFIP line and a miniscule 1.9% K-BB%. Since Street’s return from the DL, he has allowed 15 runs in 14.2 innings pitched with 10 strikeouts and a matching 10 walks. It’s just not working right now for Street. However, a change has not been made as Mike Sciosia said “We need depth back there, for sure, and we need a guy in the ninth inning that’s going to hold leads, and that’s where Huston comes in.” He’s acknowledged that Cam Bedrosian worked his way into the eighth but he’s still holding out on Street in the ninth. With Joe Smith going to Chicago there is no longer any doubt on Street’s potential replacement either. I think a change will be coming as I don’t trust Street to turn this around, consider this a dark, dark red.
• Steve Cishek received his sixth loss on the season last night and after back-to-back struggles he has lost his spot as closer. Edwin Diaz and his 45% strikeout rate will take over closing duty. It’s possible that Cishek can reclaim his job but if Diaz keeps pitching to a 1.35 xFIP while striking out half the batters he faces, it will be tough to get back the ninth. Diaz’s numbers in the minors couldn’t have predicted this type of performance but he’s leading the majors in strikeout rate and his 19.1% swinging strikeout rate is second only to Luke Gregerson. He certainly won’t keep up a 97% left on base percentage but his .458 BABIP is likely due to regress as well. Expect the usual boatloads of strikeouts just now with saves, and next year expect him to launch into the upper tier of closers if he’s not there already.
• Will Harris blew his second straight save last night and Houston’s situation is definitely worth watching. In the middle of a playoff race, I don’t expect them to be particularly loyal to Harris if he keeps blowing leads. Ken Giles has been fire of late, striking out 23 batters against just four walks in his last 13.1 innings without allowing a run. Ex-closer Luke Gregerson has also been great with the aforementioned top swinging strikeout rate and an excellent 3.09/2.42/2.66 pitching line as well. Harris is still the closer, but Houston has other, and possibly better options behind him if he continues to struggle.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
Diaz or Dyson droppable for Thornburg? I’d guess no, but your comments above made me wonder.
Finally got a chance to watch Diaz in the Sunday night game and wow, 100mph with movement and not “throwing as hard as I can” 100 mph. He’s the real deal. Obviously he needs to prove it over more than 25 innings, but he looks a lot like Betances 2.0 to me.
Yeah that was my inclination as well, but Thornburg as the only green guy on the grid plus the line about running to the wire to get him has me thinking.
Sorry for any confusion! You should run to grab Thornburg AND Diaz. Thornburg’s job is likely more secure but Diaz could be the better pitcher. I would drop Dyson over Diaz for Thornburg but I wouldn’t advise dropping a closer for closer, there isn’t another bench player to drop?
Thanks for the advice! One of the challenges of this particular league is the short bench. Only 1 DL slot and 3 bench spots total. If I were to grab Thornburg too (which would be nice) I’m looking at dropping Bregman, most likely.
Edit: worth noting, I don’t need Bregman particularly, I was stashing him to keep him from others. He hasn’t hit a lick yet, but obviously a small sample.
One other thing to consider: Diaz has SP eligibility in at least a couple formats (ESPN and Yahoo that I know of). Depending on how deep your league is and your precise format, I’d take him over some of the slop left over as starters at the bottom.