Bullpen Report: April 9, 2015
The Toronto Blue Jays set their bullpen to shuffle mode just three games into the ‘15 season. Brett Cecil’s dip in velocity started this mess for fantasy owners, but there’s a good chance that Cecil is just building up arm strength since he missed a few weeks in the Spring with shoulder soreness. The left-hander’s fourseamer sat in the 87 mph range on Wednesday night — down from a 94 mph average in ‘14 — but jumped back up to over 91 mph in Thursday’s outing in the Bronx against the Yankees. Cecil faced one over the minimum in Thursday’s appearance, surrendered a free pass and induced a pair of strikeouts on 14 pitches (nine strikes) to earn a hold.
But while Cecil continues to get himself into game shape, it appears as if youngster Miguel Castro will be the ninth-inning guy. He already has three innings on the bump in this opening week of baseball, has yet to allow a hit or a walk and owns two strikeouts along with a save. If you’re in a league where Castro is available, it’s probably in your best interest to grab him for the saves while you can, but be cautious with who you drop or how much FAAB you choose to spend since this situation seems to be a bit fluid. You shouldn’t be sending Cecil or any other closer to the wire in favor of the 20-year-old Castro at this time, rather I’d be looking for one of the lowest starting pitchers or bench bats to let loose if needed. And I’d also be looking to add shares of Cecil depending on the cost.
Earlier in the day, Greg Holland picked up his second save of the season in a 4-1 Royals victory over the White Sox. Holland needed only 10 pitches to retire the White Sox in order via two strikeouts and a ground out. He’s just two innings into his ‘15 campaign, but the 29-year-old seems to be missing that extra gear on his fastball thus far. In 2014 Holland averaged more than 96 mph on his fourseamer and in his two appearances this year, there’s about two miles per hour missing on that same offering. Not suggesting anything is wrong — he could be just getting himself more into game shape, like Cecil above — this is just something to keep an eye, especially if own stock.
Santiago Casilla notched his third save of the year on Thursday in just the fourth game the Giants have played. He came on in the bottom of the 12th frame and needed just ten pitches to retire the Padres in order and seal the victory for the Giants. Casilla fanned one Friar en route to his 61st career save.
Shameless plug: I’ll be kicking off my middle relievers column late tomorrow (I hope), discussing arms that could be useful in your holds or sold (saves+holds) leagues — something like a waiver wire, I suppose. So please keep your eyes peeled for that.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
In addition to contributing to the RotoGraphs blog, you can find Alan at his own site, TheFantasyFix.com and follow his nonsense on Twitter @TheFantasyFix.
Where do you see Osuna in the Jays pen?
Last night they used him as a bit of long relief. I have heard from fans in Toronto that they eventually want to move him into a starter roll; he is filthy and has some EXCELLENT pitches, from what I understand. Also believe Gibbons has gushed about Castro quite frequently, so I believe that Castro has dibs on the closer, with Cecil and Osuna used as set-ups, with Cecil being the stronger side of that equation.
If you have FanGraphs+ (and you really should; well worth the money!), there is a GREAT article about this situation that they just posted. Here is the link:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-upside-and-downside-of-torontos-young-relievers/#more-183009
Thanks! I’ve got him on a couple teams right now, wouldn’t mind seeing how his stuff plays as a starter eventually. I’m torn on if I want to see him get a crack at closing because of that
Someone help me convince my co-owner that Rafael Soriano is not rosterable in a 12 team 5×5 league. We’ve already got Cody Allen, Papelbon, Grilli, Cecil, Doolittle (and for now Peralta)
What team does he play for?
I’ve tried that one. Essentially how can 30 MLB teams be wrong and you are right? His response was that Boras always gets his man (a contract)
His mancrush is based on the overall stats of the last 3 year.
The only impressive part of his overall stats the last 3 years are his save totals. I don’t doubt that he’ll pitch again this year, but if it’s a 50/50 shot at half a year in a closer role then you’ve got to value him around 10 saves or less.
there are worse decisions, assuming you have bench, because it looks like you’re going to need soriano to come back and be excellent…
that’s just not a good list of closers for a 12 team 5×5 league…
Are you nuts? Thats a perfectly fine set of closers in the second week of April. Allen’s a beast, Papelbon and Grilli will get saves in such a high percentage of their team wins, even if they are sub 70 win teams. They are still good for 30sv each with fairly good ratios.
By my count theres really only two truly reliable elite closers. Even Holland’s velo is a bit down and has been all spring. Alotta work last yr.
Point is, in my opinion if you invested too much more heavily in closers youd have probably done yourself a disservice. So much in flux before the season even started.
How about getting a new partner. One who knows what the hell he is talking about.
I can see this is if your league was a bit deeper and had an N/A type slot, but otherwise…meh.
I’m just gonna throw this out there, but is the Cecil thing more about him being left handed than coming back from a short spring with decreased velocity? It just seems odd that Gibbons would make it public that he was yanking Cecil from the chair and then threw him out in the 8th inning in a set up role?
Maybe Blue Jays fans can help me out here if they know more, but is it possible that Gibbons (like a lot of managers) just doesnt like the idea of having a lefty closer, but was reluctant to go to Osuna or Castro coming out of Spring Training?
I know there are other lefty closers, but outside of Chapman, they have had a tough time being given the job and have had to seemingly prove themselves way more than other RP’s with similar numbers have had to. I just think back to when Glen Perkins was fighting for the job here in Minnesota, how Gardy basically had to run out of other options in the pen before naming Perkins as the guy. Same with Jake McGee in Tampa last year, where Maddon seemed reluctant to name him “the guy” until Balfour had basically proven he was done.
If I’m Gibbons, I’d use Cecil and Osuna to set up Castro until it stops working. Seems to me that having the killer lefty available in the 7th and 8th makes a lot of sense.
They announced when Cecil was losing closer role that he would work in 7th and 8th innings. And I do suspect you are right about him not wanting to name a 20 year old with like 3 innings above A ball as closer. But if you followed Castro’s journey through spring training, it’s not really a shock at all. They sent down Delabar, who seemed to be pitching well enough, because Castro beat him for the set up job. Then he continues the good pitching through his first couple innings in high leverage situations.
One plus to holds leagues is that a demotion like Cecil’s doesn’t tank your season. But of course I wouldn’t have drafted him so high (the 13th)if I didn’t think I’d get those saves….
Really looking forward to your new column, Alan!
Thanks! Will do some waiver wire/tiers stuff throughout the season. Liked doing it a lot last year. Hope you enjoy it (If I get it out on time today),
My league just started counting holds this year, and one big thing I didn’t account for in the draft is the unavailability of cheap saves on the wire. In years past guys like Castro would have been readily available, now it seems every closer-in-waiting is already rostered.
Has there been any word out of the Yankee camp regarding the thought process behind Miller over Betances? Is Betances being groomed for a closer role or is he the 8th inning guy until Miller is no longer an option (e.g. injury)? Or is it matchups?
Girardi indicated in spring training that he would use both of them as the Closer, depending on match ups. Of course, Betencas struggled with consistent velocity in the spring and that may have shaken some confidence in him. I expect Miller has the upper hand right now, but if Betencas starts throwing like he did last year, he will be on the right side of a lot more match ups than Miller may be.
Can’t WAIT for the saves/holds article, Alan. My league recently went to this, and I love it. Great relief pitchers have a lot more value, and it actually devalues a lot of lesser closers. For me, it is a great statistical category that gets overlooked at times. Glad to see you carrying the torch!
I agree that a holds format makes more pitchers valuable–it rewards knowing MLB rosters and following usage trends, plus it makes you pay attention to peripherals that might mean promotions down the line.